P.H. Dexippus said:

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Universal High Income is the dumbest idea ever. Why not just have the government declare that $1 dollar bills are worth $1MM dollars? See, poverty solved.

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It's called productivity driven deflation. A high income is determined not by number of commas in the income, but by how much you can buy with a given amount of money. $6,000 used to be a high income. That is no longer true, because money printing outpaced the productivity gains.

What happens when productivity gains outpace money printing? Prices fall. What do politicians get to do when prices fall? Increase the rate of money printing. UBI happens and you never saw it coming and it didn't create the inflation you expected, because the entire economy got automated.


The restrictor on productivity is going to shift from being a human labor + energy problem to a purely energy problem and without the restriction on human labor energy becomes abundant.

Elon also thought he could end government spending fraud, waste, and abuse, then reality woke him from that dream.

It's not just Elon. It's all the AI people like Zuckerburg, Amodei, Altman, etc and many of the AI VC guys. They are predicting mass unemployment of white collar workers followed by blue collar workers. They are all hyping up this "new economic model" thing although some are being more honest than others about the pain involved before their vision of utopia arrives. No one seems to be able to answer how these businesses firing their workers will survive when there are no more buyers for their products and services.

Here's the more realistic depiction of Roddenberry's Starfleet utopia. Something like this is what awaits us in the future. No thank you.

Right, so they are looking at AI as the tech unlock for scarcity, and I think that's false prophet level thinking.

Hph's subsequent response added the underlying theory to your post of what I guess they are thinking here, but it does not solve the underlying energy problem IMO, even though that's what they are saying.

Resources are still constrained in this model. All AI might do is drain them or use what we have more efficiently. True scarcity is not solved.

This is still science fiction until they can actually unlock true, limitless energy. All they are doing with this price deflation theory is resetting the numbers for what is defined as poor vs rich downwards.

IOW, you will still have the poor and rich just with fewer zeros after the first number.

aezmvp said:

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I think we are trending away from a near-universal middle class in the US to a retrench of fuedalism in a lot of ways. You won't see people tied to land but to handouts until the money is gone. Then **** really hits the fan.

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The bigger the Government gets, the smaller and poorer the middle class becomes

FobTies said:

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Pretty good discussion on woke mind virus and other topics.

At 2.37 mark, Elon mentions the likelihood of "universal high income" where everyone can afford any product or service they want. Dont really see how thats technically possible.

Also, "Sustainable abundance" sounds great for people with purpose and self discipline. But probably would end up being net destructive with so many choosing instant dopamine for little to no effort.

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To be clear, he said that's one possible future outcome from AI essentially taking over most jobs. There's alot of possible outcomes not just that one. And he's correct in saying its a possible outcome. In the near term he just stated job demands will shift as AI takes over more repetitive jobs that are done digitally today.

It was a very good pocast

I like the idea that we could eventually have abundance for all and if we don't idiocracy ourselves it is a possibility eventually but our chief obstacle will always be that while we can evolve technologically at a great rate and socially and culturally at a generational rate, we are also abound by biology and evolutionary limitations, which takes tens of generations to manifest significant population changes by natural selection, and the alternatives to that involve eugenics, holocaust, or risky genetic manipulation. The crude and animalistic parts of our nature are deeply ingrained and may even be critical to our will and desire to exist and continue as a species. Embedded om that can be all the evils of human nature, along with the good.

YouBet said:

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And I think it's bull***** How does AI solve scarcity which is the foundational rule of Economics?

Unless he's assuming AI will solve fusion, or some other equivalent unlimited resource tech for us, then this is a pipe dream.

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The idea is that some of the imminent technological breakthroughs will be so incredibly deflationary that society will be able to give away many goods and services without much thought. Kind of like the water fountain at the park: technically that water isn't free, but it's close enough to it that nobody really cares.

I don't think we're hitting this in 1-2 years aa some of the wild silicon valley types believe, but I could see AI and robotics doing this for large swaths of our economy in, say, 8-10 years. On the energy front, natural gas is really cheap, solar continues its march downward, and some of the fusion and fission start-ups look really promising. As far as white collar-esque cognition, AI has improved immeasurably since ChatGPT 3 (released 3 years ago) and we have literally trillions of CapEx and tons of hungry researchers on tap. This will affect everything. Then, to bring all this into the physical world, robotics is really starting to take off, which will pull down the price of everything from manufacturing to surgery.

Yea, the world and economy are going to be vastly different in a decade.

AtticusMatlock said:

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The problem with AI is that they want it to be good enough to where there will be no *labor* scarcity, driving down wages of those still skilled enough to be employed and ultimately replacing all humans in the labor force.

The road map is to get to Artificial General Intelligene (AGI) within the next few years. AGI means a system that can perform all cognitive and nonphysical tasks as well as any highly intelligent human.

Then they want to use clusters of AGIs to help them build a SuperIntelligence system that is smarter than all humans.

As this is happening, they are developing advanced robotics which will eventually be embedded with these AGIs and SIs. When that happens, AI will be free to mine, build, create, and invent without human input at all. Think robots making new robots made from parts built by robots sourced from robots. A robot can work without breaks for no pay. What good is a human at that point? The hive mind figures out limitless power sources and advanced space travel. Robots mining asteroids and planets.

There is a race to get to AGI and SI first.

And no this makes no sense in our current consumer driven economic model. Thats why UBI gets floated around as a solution.

There is a fear among AI pushers that an SI would view humans as superfluous and in the way and that it would kill us, so UBI probably won't matter.

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This future is terrifying and we're battling towards it.

AI doomer nerd with a humanities degree, but limited technical knowledge, writes anti-fanfic story. People listen. I wish I could post a more egregious eye roll.

This is the group that fired Sam Altman, but couldn't explain why.

hph6203 said:

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P.H. Dexippus said:

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Universal High Income is the dumbest idea ever. Why not just have the government declare that $1 dollar bills are worth $1MM dollars? See, poverty solved.

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It's called productivity driven deflation. A high income is determined not by number of commas in the income, but by how much you can buy with a given amount of money. $6,000 used to be a high income. That is no longer true, because money printing outpaced the productivity gains.

What happens when productivity gains outpace money printing? Prices fall. What do politicians get to do when prices fall? Increase the rate of money printing. UBI happens and you never saw it coming and it didn't create the inflation you expected, because the entire economy got automated.


The restrictor on productivity is going to shift from being a human labor + energy problem to a purely energy problem and without the restriction on human labor energy becomes abundant.

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The natural state of a true free market is deflation. We would live in a very different world if the benefits of technological progress had been allowed to flow to all people on a fair basis rather than disproportionately to those closest to the money printer.

Blah blah blah.

The bottom line is if you give out UBI…be it $6k, $600k or $60MM…prices will skyrocket and doom the program. When money is cheap, no one is going to trade their goods or services for it. Energy, water, food, housing, etc included.

You can blah blah all you want, but that's how it works.

If there are 10 eggs and $10. What happens to the price of eggs if you double production to 20 eggs? It goes down. What happens if you double the dollars, but hold eggs stagnant? Prices increase. What happens if eggs double and dollars double? Egg prices stay stagnant. Overly simplistic explanation, but that's the interplay between productivity induced deflation and money supply inflation. You exist in an economy of productivity gains offsetting money supply increases to a target of 2-3% general price increases.

Falling prices are bad for debtors. Becomes harder to pay back, because you have to sell more goods/services to match previous debt payments. Rising prices are good for debtors. Less sales necessary to meet previous obligations. U.S. has a lot of debt. What does the U.S. want?

What does a government do when unemployment is rising due to automation, prices are falling due to productivity gains, and the consumer is weak because they have no money?


Blah blah blah happens. What happens if blah blah doesn't happen? Riots.

Let them riot. If gives us an excuse to thin the herd which sounds necessary in the future economy.

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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hph6203 said:

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P.H. Dexippus said:

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Universal High Income is the dumbest idea ever. Why not just have the government declare that $1 dollar bills are worth $1MM dollars? See, poverty solved.

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It's called productivity driven deflation. A high income is determined not by number of commas in the income, but by how much you can buy with a given amount of money. $6,000 used to be a high income. That is no longer true, because money printing outpaced the productivity gains.

What happens when productivity gains outpace money printing? Prices fall. What do politicians get to do when prices fall? Increase the rate of money printing. UBI happens and you never saw it coming and it didn't create the inflation you expected, because the entire economy got automated.


The restrictor on productivity is going to shift from being a human labor + energy problem to a purely energy problem and without the restriction on human labor energy becomes abundant.

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The natural state of a true free market is deflation. We would live in a very different world if the benefits of technological progress had been allowed to flow to all people on a fair basis rather than disproportionately to those closest to the money printer.

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Tom Fox said:

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Let them riot. If gives us an excuse to thin the herd which sounds necessary in the future economy.

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Who will be doing this shooting?

There are levels of sustainable abundance. Compared to where we were centuries ago this is sustainable abundance right now.

Tom Fox said:

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Let them riot. If gives us an excuse to thin the herd which sounds necessary in the future economy.

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Cute that you think you'll be an "us"

Work hard to feed yourself and house yourself, while others have AI to do it for them, that is happening, he's just preparing us for it on a larger scale.

TAMU1990 said:

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aezmvp said:

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FobTies said:

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Pretty good discussion on woke mind virus and other topics.

At 2.37 mark, Elon mentions the likelihood of "universal high income" where everyone can afford any product or service they want. Dont really see how thats technically possible.

Also, "Sustainable abundance" sounds great for people with purpose and self discipline. But probably would end up being net destructive with so many choosing instant dopamine for little to no effort.

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I think we are trending away from a near-universal middle class in the US to a retrench of fuedalism in a lot of ways. You won't see people tied to land but to handouts until the money is gone. Then **** really hits the fan.

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Deport... deport... deport...

Solves a lot of problems.

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And once all the deporting is done, then what?

It's not as if removing 6-12 million people, who are easily being replaced by the children they procreate before they leave, will change, or even really slow down, the trajectory of things.

Captain Pablo said:

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Tom Fox said:

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Let them riot. If gives us an excuse to thin the herd which sounds necessary in the future economy.

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Cute that you think you'll be an "us"

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Then whoever. The idea that we have to bribe the proletariat to not riot is offensive.

Who knows maybe the rioters win and it is a reset.

Either way, bribing people through tax handouts must end.

I will not be rioting over handouts. I have made provisions to provide for myself for the rest of my life. Now if they start taking away freedoms, I'll gladly join in the riot. But entitlement spending must end and those that survive, survive.

Handouts are happening at recored levels to large Corps and other countries for them to develop AI to replace humans, it really is some sick joke played on humans, every free app you download and use is the proverbial swipe at your existence.

Burpelson said:

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Handouts are happening at recored levels to large Corps and other countries for them to develop AI to replace humans, it really is some sick joke played on humans,every free app you download and use is the proverbial swipe at your existence.

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A truer statement was never made.

Quote:

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every free app you download and use is the proverbial swipe at your existence

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Burpelson said:

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Handouts are happening at recored levels to large Corps and other countries for them to develop AI to replace humans, it really is some sick joke played on humans, every free app you download and use is the proverbial swipe at your existence.

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Hopefully you are trying to get your investments as high as possible before you're replaced and left with government or starvation.

No Spin Ag said:

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TAMU1990 said:

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aezmvp said:

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FobTies said:

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Pretty good discussion on woke mind virus and other topics.

At 2.37 mark, Elon mentions the likelihood of "universal high income" where everyone can afford any product or service they want. Dont really see how thats technically possible.

Also, "Sustainable abundance" sounds great for people with purpose and self discipline. But probably would end up being net destructive with so many choosing instant dopamine for little to no effort.

---

I think we are trending away from a near-universal middle class in the US to a retrench of fuedalism in a lot of ways. You won't see people tied to land but to handouts until the money is gone. Then **** really hits the fan.

---

Deport... deport... deport...

Solves a lot of problems.

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And once all the deporting is done, then what?

It's not as if removing 6-12 million people, who are easily being replaced by the children they procreate before they leave, will change, or even really slow down, the trajectory of things.

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Get rid of what could term non-assimilates first. Islamists in UK a good example. Ones you know will never be contributive, but only destructive.

Do agree with the idea that the globalists at least want a new feudalism as in the italics. They could be termed Elsysists rather than `elite' as the movie Elysium captures their vision closely.

Then there is the less drastic, less absolutely ruin but in some ways as bleak scenario where most of society lives in holodecks, which is closer to the mark for just where all this is going if you exclude intentional wreckers of the possible like the WEF and climate hoax was seeking to do to available energy.

With sufficient or available energy, they just might pull off this combination UBI and or UHI with holodecks type of future.

Burpelson said:

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Handouts are happening at recored levels to large Corps and other countries for them to develop AI to replace humans, it really is some sick joke played on humans, every free app you download and use is the proverbial swipe at your existence.

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Pretty dark interpretation that the value of humanity comes from the capacity to send and receive emails.

How is it that the autistic dude understands human psychology better than the academic elites?

Born 19XX becomes rich lawyer who complains about people less well off than him to such extreme extent that he wishes death upon them, with the implication he'd shoot them himself.

Born 202X becomes the kind of useless person he complaints about because he's less competent than a machine.


In the future the primary economic value is going to be interpersonal charisma. But for a 19XX birth year that rich lawyer would be worried about government shutdowns ending access to food stamps.

Conclusion is that the most valuable thing about a rich person today was the year they were born, not their capacity.

The people in this story are fictional. Any resemblance to real people is mere coincidence.

hph6203 said:

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Born 19XX becomes rich lawyer who complains about people less well off than him to such extreme extent that he wishes death upon them, with the implication he'd shoot them himself.

Born 202X becomes the kind of useless person he complaints about because he's less competent than a machine.


In the future the primary economic value is going to be interpersonal charisma. But for a 19XX birth year that rich lawyer would be worried about government shutdowns ending access to food stamps.

Conclusion is that the most valuable thing about a rich person today was the year they were born, not their capacity.

The people in this story are fictional. Any resemblance to real people is mere coincidence.

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I changed careers and didn't graduate law school until 2015 and don't start my business until 2018. Competing against late 1990s and early 2000s has been a pierce of cake compared to my generation. I imagine it will get easier as it goes forward to beat the screen addicted babies. Charisma, aptitude, and risk taking is what matters.

I have taken extreme risks with not only my physical but financial safety and it took 3 tries to succeed. If you are not, find the closest mirror and you will be staring at the problem.

Cry some more. I'll keeping stacking wealth to insulate me even more. And I don't wish death. I actually don't care as long as their survival is not dependent on me paying for it. If it is, I'll send flowers.

Throughout history the world has progressed closer to sustainable abundance. In every case, it has been some form of a reward incentive that allowed resources to be deployed to achieve progress. AI/Automation will be no different.

The Sanders and Mamdanis of the world want you believe it can happen through Marxist principles. As if Amazon could be owned comunally and operated by the gov, like the DMV. Total nonsense.

FobTies said:

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Pretty good discussion on woke mind virus and other topics.

At 2.37 mark, Elon mentions the likelihood of "universal high income" where everyone can afford any product or service they want. Dont really see how thats technically possible.

Also, "Sustainable abundance" sounds great for people with purpose and self discipline. But probably would end up being net destructive with so many choosing instant dopamine for little to no effort.

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I could see this happening in future if and when energy costs approach zero

No Spin Ag said:

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TAMU1990 said:

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aezmvp said:

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FobTies said:

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Pretty good discussion on woke mind virus and other topics.

At 2.37 mark, Elon mentions the likelihood of "universal high income" where everyone can afford any product or service they want. Dont really see how thats technically possible.

Also, "Sustainable abundance" sounds great for people with purpose and self discipline. But probably would end up being net destructive with so many choosing instant dopamine for little to no effort.

---

I think we are trending away from a near-universal middle class in the US to a retrench of fuedalism in a lot of ways. You won't see people tied to land but to handouts until the money is gone. Then **** really hits the fan.

---

Deport... deport... deport...

Solves a lot of problems.

---

And once all the deporting is done, then what?

It's not as if removing 6-12 million people, who are easily being replaced by the children they procreate before they leave, will change, or even really slow down, the trajectory of things.

---

Worst case? Be Japan. Going out in a slow collapse while preserving your cultural integrity is much more palatable than opening the door to mongrel hordes who will rape your women and treasury in a much faster decline.

You've at least gone out on your own terms in the former.

Gaeilge said:

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For all of the amazing stuff that comes from Elon's mind...there's a good bit of bat**** crazy stuff too.

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He did create some lunatic offspring for sure

UBI is not possible unless we change everything about the world. That isn't going to happen. Sadly, something will have to change, though. AI is eating jobs faster than anyone on here understands.

The cell phone, Internet, the industrial revolution, and even electricity pale in comparison to what AI is going to mean to humanity. I mean that in a positive and negative way.