Either you have some form of UBI or you are going to have a small percentage of the population with obscene wealth and a large percentage of the population living in abject poverty. If A.I. and robots are able to automate and perform most tasks, there will not be enough jobs to go around. I don't think the latter scenario will go well for too long. Either the uber wealthy exterminate the poor or the poor revolt and bring back the guillotine.

And who is going to pay for UBI in this magical world where AI somehow solves scarcity?

The top 1% already cover 40% of the taxes. The bottom half pay nothing and a significant number of them actually get paid by the government.

And now we are talking about most of society flat out not working which means even their contributions to SS and Medicare go away? Does anyone really think we are going to kill SS and Medicare and just have one UBI welfare program that is the ring that rules them all? Lol. No, we won't. UBI will get added on top of all the other welfare programs we already have. Hell, we have two different free food programs now for the poor. And I wasn't even aware of that until this SNAP drama.

And, again, who pays for it?

Until actual energy production (not better efficiency by AI) is unlimited through a tech production breakthrough or we have access to and can mine virtually unlimited resources in space then UBI is fantasy until it's not.

Rocky Rider said:

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Elon also thought he could end government spending fraud, waste, and abuse, then reality woke him from that dream.

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He doesn't need congress to create robots

FobTies said:

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Pretty good discussion on woke mind virus and other topics.

At 2.37 mark, Elon mentions the likelihood of "universal high income" where everyone can afford any product or service they want. Dont really see how thats technically possible.

Also, "Sustainable abundance" sounds great for people with purpose and self discipline. But probably would end up being net destructive with so many choosing instant dopamine for little to no effort.

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Musk interviews with Rogan are ALWAYS amazing.

Politics or not.

I have so many issues with the UBI fantasy.

"High" income is a relative term. If you send everyone the same amount, no one is high. Prices adjust, and everyone is welfare level.

The reality will be - you may have all your necessities cared for but it won't be any different from today's housing project ebt debit card lifestyle.

Another fallacy is that if you provide all the basic necessities, everyone will just work on hobbies, and arts and crafts will flourish. In reality, socialism kills art. There's no socialist or Communist society on earth that produces art.

Agree with poster above, it will turn into the feudal system. And the latter days of Rome, there will be billionaires, and then the rest of the population living off bread and circuses.

GeorgiAg said:

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Either you have some form of UBI or you are going to have a small percentage of the population with obscene wealth and a large percentage of the population living in abject poverty. If A.I. and robots are able to automate and perform most tasks, there will not be enough jobs to go around. I don't think the latter scenario will go well for too long. Either the uber wealthy exterminate the poor or the poor revolt and bring back the guillotine.

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It will be one or the other. Maybe both

I don't see an "in-between" way out of this

GeorgiAg said:

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Either you have some form of UBI or you are going to have a small percentage of the population with obscene wealth and a large percentage of the population living in abject poverty.

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The two have nothing to do with each other. In fact, one could argue welfare states lead to more inequality.

hph6203 said:

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P.H. Dexippus said:

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Universal High Income is the dumbest idea ever. Why not just have the government declare that $1 dollar bills are worth $1MM dollars? See, poverty solved.

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It's called productivity driven deflation. A high income is determined not by number of commas in the income, but by how much you can buy with a given amount of money. $6,000 used to be a high income. That is no longer true, because money printing outpaced the productivity gains.

What happens when productivity gains outpace money printing? Prices fall. What do politicians get to do when prices fall? Increase the rate of money printing. UBI happens and you never saw it coming and it didn't create the inflation you expected, because the entire economy got automated.


The restrictor on productivity is going to shift from being a human labor + energy problem to a purely energy problem and without the restriction on human labor energy becomes abundant.

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You're making the fallacy of composition. Let's assume prices fall in basic needs are cheap. Your standard of living will be great compared historically but you'll be at the bottom with everyone else in the presnt.

Likely, you'll be living in one of the housing superstructures. Everything you need will be in one building.But who knows, if you'll be allowed to leave. Do you think you'll be able to own land?
Do you think you'll be able to freely navigate?

You're going to be seen as useless masses to the tech bros. Good luck trying to reproduce.

Farmer_J said:

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GeorgiAg said:

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Either you have some form of UBI or you are going to have a small percentage of the population with obscene wealth and a large percentage of the population living in abject poverty.

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The two have nothing to do with each other. In fact, one could argue welfare states lead to more inequality.

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1900s - early 2000s is not like post AI/robots of 2030 and beyond. Welfare was intended to be a temporary measure until people got back on their feet. Maybe there will be "new" jobs to replace all those eliminated by AI/robots, but I do not see it. I think there will be a situation where:

# of people ready, willing, able to work > jobs

This is the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and one could argue it will have as much (or even more) impact as the first.

You do have to bribe the poor stupid mob to behave themselves enough to maintain social order do the rest of us can do business without excessive interference or risk. That's the sad truth of it.

That could be true, but it doesn't mean providing UBI will lessen income equality. It may end up cementing it.

Farmer_J said:

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That could be true, but it doesn't mean providing UBI will lessen income equality. It may end up cementing it.

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It's as simple as you get what you incentivize. If you incentivize people to do just enough to live off of UBI and it meets their minimum needs, then that's all they will ever do. To your point, innovation, motivation, working hard, doing anything value add to society all go to die with UBI. You will create an even larger permanent, underclass with UBI.

And let's not make the mistake that it won't be means tested because it will. UBI won't really mean "universal". It will mean whatever is defined as the poverty level at the time.

ASI will cause human productivity to trend line to negative value. Your involvement in productivity will be anti-productive over the long tail of time.

YouBet said:

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Farmer_J said:

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That could be true, but it doesn't mean providing UBI will lessen income equality. It may end up cementing it.

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It's as simple as you get what you incentivize. If you incentivize people to do just enough to live off of UBI and it meets their minimum needs, then that's all they will ever do. To your point, innovation, motivation, working hard, doing anything value add to society all go to die with UBI. You will create an even larger permanent, underclass with UBI.

And let's not make the mistake that it won't be means tested because it will. UBI won't really mean "universal". It will mean whatever is defined as the poverty level at the time.

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Nah it will be determined by other factors

Some will get a handout, others starve