This was a topic at my companies (mortgage industry) leader call today. Fifty year mortgages are a terrible idea. There would almost certainly be a higher interest rate and they were calculating that taking a fifty year mortgage over a thirty would really only reduce your payment like 5% and would result in you paying twice the interest over time in comparison.

But if the GSEs offer it and will take on the balances as part of an MBS than the banks will offer it, and people will sign up. Fools and their money….

Perfect. When can I start shorting the housing market?

Ol_Ag_02 said:

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This was a topic at my companies (mortgage industry) leader call today. Fifty year mortgages are a terrible idea. There would almost certainly be a higher interest rate and they were calculating that taking a fifty year mortgage over a thirty would really only reduce your payment like 5% and would result in you paying twice the interest over time in comparison.

But if the GSEs offer it and will take on the balances as part of an MBS than the banks will offer it, and people will sign up. Fools and their money….

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It's stupid but people don't think about tradeoffs and ROI. They are thinking this: "I can get a 50 yr instead of a 30 yr and save $25 per month. I'll never pay this off anyway so sign me up."

YouBet said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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EclipseAg said:

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Over_ed said:

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YouBet said:

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In addition, I think this 50-year mortgage idea is getting ahead of reality and is unnecessary simply because we are about to have a major housing glut in the next few years. We already do but it's going to get worse, and prices will HAVE to fall.

But I get why Trump is doing this. He doesn't have time to wait for that because R's are going to get murdered in the mid-terms if something doesn't give...right or wrong; fair or not...so this is him throwing a hail mary to try and get some relief out there.

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If you are talking about us boomers dying, it's going to take longer than you think. Good for us, bad for housing affordability.

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Not only that, but people are staying in their homes much longer.

When a family member moved to an independent living facility a couple of years ago, I asked the sales director about the average age of the residents. She said it was 82.

That place was built for people 55 and up. For lots of reasons, it's not ideal for residents in their 80s. But people aged 55 no longer want that lifestyle. They want to stay put as long as possible.

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Having recently gone through independent, assisted, nursing home options over the past year for my mother, I going to have to throw a flag on whatever the sales director told you. That or it was real small and there were some of those 200 year old social security recipients living there that DOGE found.

Many if not most over 55 want something smaller with less maintenance. I would have to see some macro data vs our anecdotes to be convinced this is actually part of the problem.

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I wish my parents wanted less maintenance. They just built a new house at 82 freaking years old. My mom can't see or hear but they built a house instead of doing an assisted living situation. Stubborn ass mom is gonna do stubborn ass things.

So now they have two houses because they can't sell the other one. Mind you, these are very smart people who extremely financially savvy, but they refused to acknowledge reality on this one despite my brother and I pleading for them not to build a new home. So, if something happens to my dad then we have to immediatley put my mom in a home because she can't take care of her itself which leaves us with two houses just sitting out there that no one wants to buy. Maddening.

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That's pretty incredible. Building a new one at that age? Was it smaller and carefully designed with ramps and all kinds of things like lack of steps to make getting around easier? Easily entered baths. I can see building a custom thing if you have the power that catered to your 80's. But if not, seems pretty out there. Folks are hanging onto their house too, but it is as much as for familiarity as anything else. They haven't ruled out moving to something smaller, but considering how long it took the niece to get a place, that's not obvious how or where it would be.

Built a new second home --- just incredible -- especially if didn't have the criteria outlined. Wow.

“People become desperate.”

Sowell described Stage 1 of every housing crisis: artificial scarcity caused by government.

In Stage 2, desperation turns political & that’s when the real damage begins. 🎥👇 pic.twitter.com/4C8C8YKSVC

— Will Ricciardella (@WillRicci) November 7, 2025

A little smaller but it's still 2,500 feet. They did put in a wide shower but other than that no real ADA kind of stuff. They put a bonus room up top for some damn reason and what does my mother, again who can't see(!), do?....Goes up there while the house is still under construction and then promptly breaks her foot trying to descend. Ends up in a boot for weeks. Stairs weren't even fully finished and no hand rail. Extremely lucky she didn't fall and die. Just stupid.

Their justification for doing all of this was to get closer into town and closer to healthcare. Cool. Then do assisted living or buy an existing house.

Nope. We are going to build one and add that year of stress to our lives for no other reason than they are stubborn as hell and enjoy stress. They tried to tell us there were no homes for sale so they were forced to build which was bull**** and we showed them it was bull*****

They blew us off and built a new home anyway. They make me insane sometimes. Love family.

YouBet said:

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A little smaller but it's still 2,500 feet. They did put in a wide shower but other than that no real ADA kind of stuff. They put a bonus room up top for some damn reason and what does my mother, again who can't see(!), do?....Goes up there while the house is still under construction and then promptly breaks her foot trying to descend. Ends up in a boot for weeks. Stairs weren't even fully finished and no hand rail. Extremely lucky she didn't fall and die. Just stupid.

Their justification for doing all of this was to get closer into town and closer to healthcare. Cool. Then do assisted living or buy an existing house.

Nope. We are going to build one and add that year of stress to our lives for no other reason than they are stubborn as hell and enjoy stress. They tried to tell us there were no homes for sale so they were forced to build which was bull**** and we showed them it was bull*****

They blew us off and built a new home anyway. They make me insane sometimes. Love family.

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That is more familiar sounding than you might guess, if its any consolation. If anything, the "stubborn and enjoy stress" of yours is worse, so it makes one a little more grateful. But more than a passing resemblance in the irrational actions that are risky.

YouBet said:

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A little smaller but it's still 2,500 feet. They did put in a wide shower but other than that no real ADA kind of stuff. They put a bonus room up top for some damn reason and what does my mother, again who can't see(!), do?....Goes up there while the house is still under construction and then promptly breaks her foot trying to descend. Ends up in a boot for weeks. Stairs weren't even fully finished and no hand rail. Extremely lucky she didn't fall and die. Just stupid.

Their justification for doing all of this was to get closer into town and closer to healthcare. Cool. Then do assisted living or buy an existing house.

Nope. We are going to build one and add that year of stress to our lives for no other reason than they are stubborn as hell and enjoy stress. They tried to tell us there were no homes for sale so they were forced to build which was bull**** and we showed them it was bull*****

They blew us off and built a new home anyway. They make me insane sometimes. Love family.

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I've felt that frustration.

An aside...The first trip up from A&M to meet my family, my dad asked my date (wife now, together now for 45 years) if she was going to do any nude pictures? :-)

She asked why he was asking. "Because, it doesn't get any better as you get older."

We still chuckle about that. Truer words are infrequently spoken.

Good luck and, unfortunately. it can get worse.

Oh, I'm aware it can get worse. We've already lived through end of life with my wife's parents. Terminal illness, memory care, the whole nine yards.

I'm thankful my parents have their wits about them - they are just a physical mess and stubborn as hell.

YouBet said:

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They blew us off and built a new home anyway. They make me insane sometimes. Love family.

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Nothing has been more frustrating to me than the parents making dumb, dumb choices - ignoring my pleadings and well thought out reasoning - and then coming running back to me to help them get out of the mess they created.

I feel for you.