LOYAL AG said:

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Didn't we read not too long ago that the fast casual places like Chili's are doing well? IMO it's as much about fast food being just too expensive for what you get versus eating out in general. I can spend $25 for two at Whataburger and get a cup of sugar to wash it down with or I can spend $30 at somewhere like Chili's for a better burger and fries and wash it down with a free glass of water. Fast food is way out over their skis right now in terms of value.

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That is correct. It costs as much to eat fast food as it does in many sit down places now. People are opting for the latter.

Brinker - who owns Chilis - is up 13% YTD versus Chipotles that is down 45%.

Old McDonald said:

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recession indicator

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now do Kohls

Kohl's Stock Soared a Meme-Like 40% Tuesday. But There's Real News Behind This Massive Move.
By Aaron McDade

Kohl's shares hit their highest point since July 2024 on Tuesday after the retailer's third-quarter results topped estimates.

Kohl's (KSS) shares soared Tuesday after the retailer reported a surprise profit and better-than-expected sales, a day after removing the "interim" tag from CEO Michael Bender's title.


young adults making food at home means recession right now- but hundreds of companies reporting this quarter and beating on both profit and earnings is meaningless?

Coasting? He was out beating the pot loudly for another bailout to buy votes

I'll beat the dead horse of K shaped economy. That's the new normal now which is punishing for those on the lower leg. Hard to dig out of that hole.

Covid biowarfare really screwed us and then the Democrats implementing their tried and true "never let a crisis go to waste" strategy by elevating our annual federal spend by $2T per year tipped the scales. Republicans being the controlled opposition they've been for the last 30 years provided no opposition.

We rarely eat out anymore. Mostly because I live in a small town and the food isn't all that great, but even when we venture out to Grand Junction or other cities, we just don't see the value in spending $50+ for two on mediocre food. Now that we have a freezer with 2 elk, 2 mule deer and a half a cow coming today, we are set for quite a while.

Ag with kids said:

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Old McDonald said:

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recession indicator

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With a 3.8% GDP growth in the last quarter?

What would cause the GDP growth to drop more than 3.8% and stay there for 2 quarters?

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Inflation and manipulation of numbers.

Thing where bopping along really well in 2006 too..

I also think we are seeing a massive reallocation / re-shuffling of the economy on what people value. The younger generations just flat out don't value the same things that Gen X and older value.

Just one example is that the younger generations don't drink at near the pace we older folks do. One reason you see non alcoholic offerings growing at a faster clip than other offerings.

Maybe it's "Old Man Yells at Clouds", but food quality is the big factor for me. Just doesn't taste good, and everyone is just buying Ben E Keith and reheating it.

Recently spent some time is South Carolina, seems worse there. Hard to find a good restaurant, but people are at the mediocre ones. I guess there is nothing to compare to

ts5641 said:

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Gen Z and Millennials are getting it from all ends. Economically they're really struggling.

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Agree on Gen Z. Millennials are doing much better imo. No one wants to hire a 23 year old with a degree, see the other thread.

YouBet said:

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I also think we are seeing a massive reallocation / re-shuffling of the economy on what people value. The younger generations just flat out don't value the same things that Gen X and older value.

Just one example is that the younger generations don't drink at near the pace we older folks do. One reason you see non alcoholic offerings growing at a faster clip than other offerings.

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Lot of truth in this. They also value travel and experiences more. I know we do. In 2025, we went to Vietnam, Morrocco, our place in Koh Samui, Sydney and Banff.

Logos Stick said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Didn't we read not too long ago that the fast casual places like Chili's are doing well? IMO it's as much about fast food being just too expensive for what you get versus eating out in general. I can spend $25 for two at Whataburger and get a cup of sugar to wash it down with or I can spend $30 at somewhere like Chili's for a better burger and fries and wash it down with a free glass of water. Fast food is way out over their skis right now in terms of value.

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That is correct. It costs as much to eat fast food as it does in many sit down places now. People are opting for the latter.

Brinker - who owns Chilis - is up 13% YTD versus Chipotles that is down 45%.

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I have been enjoying some fast casual in the BCS area like the newly remodeled Chicken Oil. It's about $16 for the Snuffy Burger basket and tea. Whataburger for the avocado bacon burger meal is $14 and change. So yeah not much difference and the ambiance is nicer at Chicken Oil.

LMCane said:

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Old McDonald said:

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recession indicator

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now do Kohls

Kohl's Stock Soared a Meme-Like 40% Tuesday. But There's Real News Behind This Massive Move.
By Aaron McDade

Kohl's shares hit their highest point since July 2024 on Tuesday after the retailer's third-quarter results topped estimates.

Kohl's (KSS) shares soared Tuesday after the retailer reported a surprise profit and better-than-expected sales, a day after removing the "interim" tag from CEO Michael Bender's title.


young adults making food at home means recession right now- but hundreds of companies reporting this quarter and beating on both profit and earnings is meaningless?

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You've got to remember that since Clinton the Dems have weaponized the attitude towards the economy to win votes. When a Dem is president they swear the economy is doing great. All government reports will lie at least initially showing the economy is wonderful. When a Republican is president the media will highlight horror stories and amplify problems even when the economy is actually doing well.

The media and concerned moderates on here are just now noticing the issues with Bidenflation.

Hoyt Ag said:

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YouBet said:

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I also think we are seeing a massive reallocation / re-shuffling of the economy on what people value. The younger generations just flat out don't value the same things that Gen X and older value.

Just one example is that the younger generations don't drink at near the pace we older folks do. One reason you see non alcoholic offerings growing at a faster clip than other offerings.

---

Lot of truth in this. They also value travel and experiences more. I know we do. In 2025, we went to Vietnam, Morrocco, our place in Koh Samui, Sydney and Banff.

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Truth on that. My former millennial employees from my old team are travel hoars. There is one gal who has been to over 100 countries. She has no man in her life, but she values travel as her #1 hobby. Lives with several other female roommates. They all still keep up with another as well. Their IG feeds are absurd on the travel front.

TommyBrady said:

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The sodium content at chipotle is a heart attack or stroke waiting to happen

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Now do Whataburger.

I was going to post that the reason we don't eat out as much is because of the sodium.

There has been an overbuild on restaurants, IMO, which is causing many places to struggle. Patrons are spread across too many choices. 7 new restaurants opened within 1 mile of our house within the past 12-18 months. Prior to that, since Covid, there have been probably 25-30 places that have opened up. That doesn't include Whataburger, Chipotle, and Starbucks. Our neighborhood is 25 years old.

A couple of the places are mom-and-pop shops. The amount of sodium was noticeably higher. We've had to stop eating there, but it caused me to start looking at how much sodium places use.

Over the past 7 months we have reduced eating out by like 70% and I've lost 11% of my body weight. I don't feel bloated, and feel much healthier.

Quote:

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Maybe it's "Old Man Yells at Clouds", but food quality is the big factor for me. Just doesn't taste good, and everyone is just buying Ben E Keith and reheating it.

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Agree entirely on the sentiment, but one point of clarification. Ben E Keith distributes all kinds of food including lots of fresh, raw ingredients and premium products. The premium briskets they sell to Clarks Crew BBQ in OKC are top notch...any hobby smoker would love to have them. They provide ingedients to everything from gas station grills to the highest end restaurants.

So seeing a Ben E Keith truck serving a restaurant doesn't mean they are in there microwaving tv dinners or baking stouffer lasagnas.

This is a chipotle burrito with just chicken, black beans, brown rice, and cheese. No guac, Sour Cream or any Salsa etc

You can easily get to 2000 mg of Sodium and 15g of sat fat
Chipotle is slowly killing people and they are on the "healthier" side of fast food.

MasonB said:

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Quote:

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Maybe it's "Old Man Yells at Clouds", but food quality is the big factor for me. Just doesn't taste good, and everyone is just buying Ben E Keith and reheating it.

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Agree entirely on the sentiment, but one point of clarification. Ben E Keith distributes all kinds of food including lots of fresh, raw ingredients and premium products. The premium briskets they sell to Clarks Crew BBQ in OKC are top notch...any hobby smoker would love to have them. They provide ingedients to everything from gas station grills to the highest end restaurants.

So seeing a Ben E Keith truck serving a restaurant doesn't mean they are in there microwaving tv dinners or baking stouffer lasagnas.

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Had a Stouffer's Lasagna for dinner last night. Makes you think.

First time I've eaten that in a few decades but we are at my parent's for Thanksgiving and it's easy button for them.

TAMUallen said:

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techno-ag said:

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Bill Bigfoot said:

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As an insider in the fast food/quick service industry, we are absolutely seeing less young people. Our core customer base is 50 and older. We are saved by being close to our hospital. Unless young people are with parents, we rarely see them.

I've been working to market our business to more teens and young adults (our town isn't exactly full of them), but so far have only been able to slightly turn the tide.

Coming from the logistics world to restaurants is different, but both are economic bellwethers that I don't like the direction they have been headed the last few years.

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Thanks for commenting. It's an issue when Biden made everything so much more expensive. I fear it's going to hurt the poor for generations. I encourage young people to seek multiple income streams and pay attention to Dave Ramsey about not wasting their money.

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Ramsey is an idiot now who fails to understand costs. His thoughts would be great now if it was 30 years ago but it isnt and he's showing his age. Basic frugality is the only concept he can share now and there's nothing special about that.

As to fast food/qsr not seeing as many young people, it is cost alone. Mom and dad cant give you 5 or 10 bucks and have it even cover a meal anymore. I've brought it up before but you can get a meal at chilis for the same price or less than eating at some fast food places. It used to be that fast was also inexpensive, fast and aaffordable. None of those tend to be true anymore

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Frugality isn't his only message.

He readily says "You have an Income problem." He tells people to get a second job and sell everything but the kids.

Personal finance is real, real basic. In-Out=Accumulation+Generation. It has always been the formula. It will always be the formula.

He tells people they are blowing money on interest (negative generation), they are accumulating the wrong things (depreciating assets like cars).

You can make money. In
You can spend money. Out

Rica & Beans... Beans & Rice.

There are messages I disagree with him on. Things like mortgage debt. His message is that he agrees the math doesn't work to pay off your mortgage, but paying off your mortgage changes your relationship with money. And I can see that. We are trained to accept debt as a pet that is always there. If you don't owe a mortgage, you don't see the value in maintaining debt, which means you spend less on stupid stuff.

People have become entitled. Eating out is a luxury that has to be budgeted like everything else. Many Americans think they deserve the life that the "Kardashians" have. No one with an iPhone should complain that they don't have enough to eat. People should earn a wage and live off that wage. Democrats of course will try to find every conceivable way to keep people under control with all kids of government assistance.

BadMoonRisin said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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techno-ag said:

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Bidenflation really did a number on restaurants.

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It wasn't just Biden. Trump and the 116th Congress were also to blame for injecting massive amounts of cash into the economy for no good reason.

Fiscal liberalism has consequences. Say what you will about Trump, but he is not and never has been a fiscal conservative. We are paying the price for this idiocy that both sides now proudly perpetuate.

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The pandemic response was completely insane. And no one is talking about it anymore.

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Oh, I still talk about it.

Fauci needs to answer for what he did.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Ag with kids said:

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Old McDonald said:

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recession indicator

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With a 3.8% GDP growth in the last quarter?

What would cause the GDP growth to drop more than 3.8% and stay there for 2 quarters?

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There are two things propping up GDP:

1) The AI investment roll out and
2) People with significant amounts of money invested spending in the economy.

Middle class spending has slowed down. Almost all consumer spending growth over the last year has been from higher income or highly invested people. Think retiring boomers with large 401k balances. They've been able to do that because the stock market is up big this year, largely as a result of point 1. The vast majority of S&P growth has been from 7 stocks, all in tech, all related to AI. As the AI bubble draws back or even bursts, these high investment spenders are going to slow down as the market slows and their investment balances decline.

That's how you get GDP flat.

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are there times in world history

when the rise in the economy was not from the the wealthy spending more but from the poor people spending more?

if so, please list when that happened.

People getting smart with finances and not pissing away money on crappy food they can make at home?

I guess I fail to see how this is an issue or a bad thing. I encourage it.

Eat better food at home. More time with family. Better for your finances. Nothing bad comes of this.

G. hirsutum Ag said:

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Subway, Whataburger, Burgerking, Sonic, Taco Bell, for a family of 4 with a 12 year old and a 9 year old you're easily $45. I can't stomach it anymore. And the quality continues to fall because they are desperate to keep pricing down. I got the HBCS sandwich at WB the other night because it was late and we were desperate, I really should have sent it back but it was so late and my kids were exhausted so I ate it because the stupid thing was $12. Most pathetic strips I've ever seen in my life. I could afford it if I really wanted to but I'd rather cook a much better meal for $30 and just deal with the dishes. Everyone with a brain saw this coming the second covid hit the fan and the checks started pouring out

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It seems that Whataburger has gotten worse since being bought by a private equity group. It's a shame.

BadMoonRisin said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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techno-ag said:

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Bidenflation really did a number on restaurants.

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It wasn't just Biden. Trump and the 116th Congress were also to blame for injecting massive amounts of cash into the economy for no good reason.

Fiscal liberalism has consequences. Say what you will about Trump, but he is not and never has been a fiscal conservative. We are paying the price for this idiocy that both sides now proudly perpetuate.

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The pandemic response was completely insane. And no one is talking about it anymore.

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The restaurants that closed during the pandemic is because of Governors failing their states. Red or Blue, there was such cluster effs all around that did not need to happen.

Trump and Congress making go BRRRR while the states were shutting down definitely threw fuel on an already raging fire.

Now, Trump has three more years to get this country where he was hired to do, back in the black for every American.

Here's to hoping things get rolling soon or the idiot left will take the mid-terms and all will be for naught.

In the QSR space, there is a meeting point of the highest prices ever with some of the crappiest and most inconsistent food ever. It's a bunch of 18-20 year olds with one week of training.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Ag with kids said:

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Old McDonald said:

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recession indicator

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With a 3.8% GDP growth in the last quarter?

What would cause the GDP growth to drop more than 3.8% and stay there for 2 quarters?

---

There are two things propping up GDP:

1) The AI investment roll out and
2) People with significant amounts of money invested spending in the economy.

Middle class spending has slowed down. Almost all consumer spending growth over the last year has been from higher income or highly invested people. Think retiring boomers with large 401k balances. They've been able to do that because the stock market is up big this year, largely as a result of point 1. The vast majority of S&P growth has been from 7 stocks, all in tech, all related to AI. As the AI bubble draws back or even bursts, these high investment spenders are going to slow down as the market slows and their investment balances decline.

That's how you get GDP flat.

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Not sure how some group can come up with AI investment being the driving force regarding GDP or how they determine which group of people (middle class, higher income, big 401(k) folks) are spending or not spending. I guess via polling? I know there are those who come up with those types of statistics, just never understood how they do it!

I can't think of anyone among my friends, family, former clients who has a large 401(k) or IRA balance or who has significant money invested that is significantly spending more money, certainly not enough to prop up the economy to offset what the middle class isn't spending. It has been the opposite from what I have seen.

I was thinking the other day that among my peer group (almost all would be above middle class and a large percentage of them retired) only one couple has built a home, and I can't think of anyone who has purchased a new vehicle in the past year. Those I know that are likely middle class (primarily tenants of ours) are still working and buying pickups and cars, going on decent vacations.

As far as food places, eating out is largely a huge waste of money. And it has skyrocketed in recent times. About the only time we eat out is when we are on the road, and that is once, maybe twice a year. Once inflation finally impacted so many things (such as the cost of various types of insurance, property taxes, fuel prices, etc.) I think people carried on and did not adjust how they spent there money. But recently that mindset has changed. I would guess many food places will suffer as well as things like Door Dash and Uber Eats. I would guess some see friends losing their jobs and that causes them to pull back on spending as well. Though they still have their job perhaps the psychology of it all influences them.

The upcoming Christmas spending season will be interesting to watch as a gauge of consumer spending.

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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G. hirsutum Ag said:

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Subway, Whataburger, Burgerking, Sonic, Taco Bell, for a family of 4 with a 12 year old and a 9 year old you're easily $45. I can't stomach it anymore. And the quality continues to fall because they are desperate to keep pricing down. I got the HBCS sandwich at WB the other night because it was late and we were desperate, I really should have sent it back but it was so late and my kids were exhausted so I ate it because the stupid thing was $12. Most pathetic strips I've ever seen in my life. I could afford it if I really wanted to but I'd rather cook a much better meal for $30 and just deal with the dishes. Everyone with a brain saw this coming the second covid hit the fan and the checks started pouring out

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It seems that Whataburger has gotten worse since being bought by a private equity group. It's a shame.

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Agreed but it's location dependent. We ate at the one in Sealy, TX yesterday and it was pretty good. It was packed and everyone that worked there was super nice and inviting. Seemed well run.

Had opposite experience at a different WB on different road trip. Food was terrible.

infinity ag said:

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I hate Chipotle but my family loves it. Just yesterday I ordered burritos for my 2 kids. Wife said she will eat leftovers. I decided to slum it and ordered Wendy's burger with fries.

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Wendy's "Biggie Bag" is the best value on the market for fast food.

But I was told all Gen Z and Millennials had to do to buy a home was stop this spending?

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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G. hirsutum Ag said:

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Subway, Whataburger, Burgerking, Sonic, Taco Bell, for a family of 4 with a 12 year old and a 9 year old you're easily $45. I can't stomach it anymore. And the quality continues to fall because they are desperate to keep pricing down. I got the HBCS sandwich at WB the other night because it was late and we were desperate, I really should have sent it back but it was so late and my kids were exhausted so I ate it because the stupid thing was $12. Most pathetic strips I've ever seen in my life. I could afford it if I really wanted to but I'd rather cook a much better meal for $30 and just deal with the dishes. Everyone with a brain saw this coming the second covid hit the fan and the checks started pouring out

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It seems that Whataburger has gotten worse since being bought by a private equity group. It's a shame.

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Everything gets worse after being bought out by a PE group.

YouBet said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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G. hirsutum Ag said:

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Subway, Whataburger, Burgerking, Sonic, Taco Bell, for a family of 4 with a 12 year old and a 9 year old you're easily $45. I can't stomach it anymore. And the quality continues to fall because they are desperate to keep pricing down. I got the HBCS sandwich at WB the other night because it was late and we were desperate, I really should have sent it back but it was so late and my kids were exhausted so I ate it because the stupid thing was $12. Most pathetic strips I've ever seen in my life. I could afford it if I really wanted to but I'd rather cook a much better meal for $30 and just deal with the dishes. Everyone with a brain saw this coming the second covid hit the fan and the checks started pouring out

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It seems that Whataburger has gotten worse since being bought by a private equity group. It's a shame.

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Agreed but it's location dependent. We ate at the one in Sealy, TX yesterday and it was pretty good. It was packed and everyone that worked there was super nice and inviting. Seemed well run.

Had opposite experience at a different WB on different road trip. Food was terrible.

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I've had the same hit-and-miss experiences with Whataburger.

The patties have not been quarter-pound weight for so long, I'm sure the younger generations don't even know they were bigger (heavier/thicker) at one time.

My best experience (food and customer service) was at one of the older WB places in San Antonio's South Side. Employees were actually happy to serve, and the food was as good as it could be.

I had a double meat Whataburger on the meal in Wichita Falls on Monday for $10.49 and food was great, no complaints. We checked reviews ahead of time and most all gave high marks.

We do not kill it by any means, but I still never thought our family would actually feel the effects of something like inflation, at least not to this extent. Doesn't help that residential RE is down so my wife isn't closing as many deals, but we almost never eat out or order food. Pretty much just after church on sundays...and then the occasinal random night out. Or quick stop at Chick Fil A for the little one if in a pinch.

We cook almost all of our meals. I don't know how the more working class and poor segments are doing it TBH. Driving nice cars and eating out so often. If I was a young person on $60-70k salary I don't even know how I would do it. EVERYTHING is insanely expensive. They would be wise to cook and meal prep as much as they can.

Quote:

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all purveyors of "slop bowls"

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Couldn't come up with a better descriptor. Chipotle is just nasty...