Elon Musk predicts you won't have to work at all in 'less than 20 years'

6,656 Views | 120 Replies | Last: 16 hrs ago by Ag with kids
eric76
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AG
infinity ag said:

eric76 said:

I hate to imagine what will happen when you have a plumbing issue and wait for AI to fix it.

You might get your water, gas, and sewer all connected together.


Musk will invent an AI robot that will collect people's crap. No need for a commode anymore.

The real Soylent Green?
agsalaska
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AG
eric76 said:

It always seemed to me that people who don't have to work often live rather pointless lives.

You might say that they exist rather than living.

Think about it.

If you can go fishing every day, then it becomes one of "What did you do yesterday? Fishing", "What are you doing today? Fishing", and "What are you going to do tomorrow? Fishing".

If you get to go fishing every day, then why bother going fishing?


Yea Eric I agree. I don't get the desire to NOT work. I've had jobs that paid very well and jobs that didn't pay very well and jobs that didn't pay at all. But nothing was worse than the few short times that I didn't work at all. I got complacent and everything started going downhill. Work has nothing really to do with money. Pre Covid it was generally accepted that there was no real correlation between money and happiness somewhere just past the poverty line. Work is about the soul, not about money.


It's not surprising that a guy like Elon Musk doesn't understand that. He is a bit off the normal rocker scale to begin with.
CanyonAg77
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AG
Quote:

Musk forgets basic psychology about human emotions


He never knew. He's a freaking genius in many areas, but I don't know if he understands humans.
Teslag
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AG
halfastros81 said:

So Ai is going to physically build plants and facilities , build roads and do road maintenance, drill wells and build pipelines, etc, etc. what could possibly go wrong?


Eventually yes it will. All of it. And it will be better than humans.
Teslag
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AG
ABATTBQ11 said:

Still waiting on those self-driving cars he promised 10 years ago...


I have one. It's pretty much there. I can type in a business address from my garage and press start driving. It will back out, drive all the way there, and park in the parking lot without me even touching the wheel.
Mr.Milkshake
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Even without a step up to intelligence staircase massive automation via Gen purpose robotic is on the way.

If we achieve an advancement in intelligence there is not telling. We will be to it what chimps are to us.
halfastros81
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AG
I don't see it . Human judgement is needed . Things are more complex than programming can properly account for . Over a few decades I can see an increasing amount of the physical labor will be done by robots but still will need human oversight and a lot of it imo.
infinity ag
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Teslag said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

Still waiting on those self-driving cars he promised 10 years ago...


I have one. It's pretty much there. I can type in a business address from my garage and press start driving. It will back out, drive all the way there, and park in the parking lot without me even touching the wheel.


Wow amazing. Is this a Tesla or a different car?

So you basically type in an address like we do in Google Maps and it safely takes you there while you nap at the back??
YouBet
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AG
So, if jobs are optional then who is going to pay for UBI for everyone??

I will die on the hill that Elon is conflating AI advancement with solving scarcity which I dispute. He thinks AI will solve Economics 101. I don't see how.

Solving scarcity is the only way UBI can be supported at scale on top of all of the other welfare that is given out. If we are in a UBI world, then you can bet we are also in a UHC world.
aezmvp
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YouBet said:

So, if jobs are optional then who is going to pay for UBI for everyone??

I will die on the hill that Elon is conflating AI advancement with solving scarcity which I dispute. He thinks AI will solve Economics 101. I don't see how.

Solving scarcity is the only way UBI can be supported at scale on top of all of the other welfare that is given out. If we are in a UBI world, then you can bet we are also in a UHC world.

You're correct. We may eliminate certain things and create a wastrel underclass through such a system. And then you'll have a very, very strange society. One level of ultra-wealthy industrialists and capital barons. One level of hyper educated researchers, engineers, and politicians. And one level of destitution. Oh it'll be comfortable enough with mindless slop and no meaning, but yeah I just think that will be a complete disaster for 70%+ of the people.

I was raised in the lower upper-class, went to private schools before going to A&M for the Corps. I've been around a TON of the people who think like this and think it's a great step forward. The kind that vaguely believe that Star Trek style existence is what we're headed for.

I was rapidly disabused of those pretenses by being introduced to the rest of society at A&M. Work and struggle and achievement are the things that make life worthwhile. The things that bop around in that class of people's heads is so disconnected from the reality of the rest of the world it is astounding.
BQ2001
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AG
infinity ag said:

Teslag said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

Still waiting on those self-driving cars he promised 10 years ago...


I have one. It's pretty much there. I can type in a business address from my garage and press start driving. It will back out, drive all the way there, and park in the parking lot without me even touching the wheel.


Wow amazing. Is this a Tesla or a different car?

So you basically type in an address like we do in Google Maps and it safely takes you there while you nap at the back??

Yes this is Tesla. I will say though, I live in Denver and we got our first decent snow since the latest big update came out. I tried to use it to take my daughter to school and it wasn't great. It tried to drive centered in the lane but that isn't where the safe "ruts" were so it was driving through 2" of slop. I took over and drove in the ruts and it was fine. On a normal day though self driving is amazing. I took it from Denver to Ohio last summer and it was so much more relaxing.
YouBet
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AG
It's Elysium. Elon is obviously one of the more benevolent elites, but he's still pushing that concept here which will be awful for most of humanity.
Tom Fox
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YouBet said:

It's Elysium. Elon is obviously one of the more benevolent elites, but he's still pushing that concept here which will be awful for most of humanity.


Unfortunately there are a bunch of Americans that would happily live in their tiny apartment playing video games all day and waiting for the government to deliver their weekly cricket allotment over working a regular job.
Teslag
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AG
infinity ag said:

Teslag said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

Still waiting on those self-driving cars he promised 10 years ago...


I have one. It's pretty much there. I can type in a business address from my garage and press start driving. It will back out, drive all the way there, and park in the parking lot without me even touching the wheel.


Wow amazing. Is this a Tesla or a different car?

So you basically type in an address like we do in Google Maps and it safely takes you there while you nap at the back??


Yes. You type in address and it just drives. The only thing it makes me do is keep my eyes on the road as it tracks my attention.
infinity ag
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Teslag said:

infinity ag said:

Teslag said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

Still waiting on those self-driving cars he promised 10 years ago...


I have one. It's pretty much there. I can type in a business address from my garage and press start driving. It will back out, drive all the way there, and park in the parking lot without me even touching the wheel.


Wow amazing. Is this a Tesla or a different car?

So you basically type in an address like we do in Google Maps and it safely takes you there while you nap at the back??


Yes. You type in address and it just drives. The only thing it makes me do is keep my eyes on the road as it tracks my attention.


Pretty impressive. What model?
I am looking to replace my 11 year old car next year so I might look at this one.
Teslag
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AG
2026 Model Y premium. Had a 2022 Model Y performance before that. The new HW4 hardware full self driving computers are incredible.
Jason_Roofer
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eric76 said:

It always seemed to me that people who don't have to work often live rather pointless lives.

You might say that they exist rather than living.

Think about it.

If you can go fishing every day, then it becomes one of "What did you do yesterday? Fishing", "What are you doing today? Fishing", and "What are you going to do tomorrow? Fishing".

If you get to go fishing every day, then why bother going fishing?

I still fish a few times a week in my off season, but I find a great deal of joy in work. I very much LOVE what I do. It is not a chore or 'something I have to do'. My work is part of what gives me joy. Most everyone that's worked with me knows that. That even includes every person that has told me to die when I knocked on their door, asked me why I don't have a real job, told me they hate me, I don't care. It's all good. Whether working on the ranch or working for customers, there is a HUGE sense of joy at the end of the day when you can say "this is what I did today"..."This is who I helped put a new roof on their home"..."This is what I did to feed my family". It doesn't matter what 'work' is, it is something that I feel should be enjoyed. If you hate your job or hate work, then I implore you to find something else.

For anyone that is ready to 'not work', I will say that I have seen first hand in my life MANY people who retired and then...DIED. That's right. They lasted 6 months to a year before they died and some of them were in their 60's. Work provides a sense of pride and sense of accomplishment. It is required for us as humans. We thrive on it.
AggieVictor10
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AG
Thank GOD for Elon Musk
ABATTBQ11
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AG
montanagriz said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

Still waiting on those self-driving cars he promised 10 years ago...
been to Austin? They exist


Not until there's no "safety driver" and they don't need a constantly mapped area to navigate. There is a reason they only have them in specific locations.
NE PA Ag
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I always say that retirement is going to be my opportunity to work for the enjoyment and not the money. I do feel rewarded in my job and I have certain projects that I enjoy and others I don't, but mostly I grow tired of the corporate rat race and I'll be glad to retire. That doesn't mean I want to stop working though. I think a lot of people need the purpose work brings in their life.
"If all mankind minus one, were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind." - J.S. Mill
halfastros81
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AG
That's exactly the kind of thing I see being problematic for AI doing "all the work". Conditions change, problems present themselves , assumptions often turn out to be wrong, etc, etc. Programming just can't anticipate all of the many , many potential complexities that can arise . Will it get better over time? Yes , it has and it will continue to improve but I just don't see AI ever being able to take over even the lion's share of all "work". In some cases it'll create more work and dangerous situations because it's always going to be limited by the programming.
beerad12man
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eric76 said:

It always seemed to me that people who don't have to work often live rather pointless lives.

You might say that they exist rather than living.

Think about it.

If you can go fishing every day, then it becomes one of "What did you do yesterday? Fishing", "What are you doing today? Fishing", and "What are you going to do tomorrow? Fishing".

If you get to go fishing every day, then why bother going fishing?


Yeah I'm sorry but most jobs are also pointless. Meetings, quotas, deadlines, emails, blah blah. It's great for those that find passion in their jobs. It truly is.

But The average person doesn't, all the while not working on themselves, getting fatter, more out of shape, needing glasses from starting at computers all day for years, etc.

If you don't think being financially independent and not having to work is less rewarding than relying on others to employ you, you are living life wrong. There can so much passion, joy, and meaning in life outside of work, too.

Yes, the people who inherit money and then sit on their ass all day watching Netflix, you may have a point. but that's less than you would think.

People who don't need to work can live on their own terms and do their own things. Maybe it's for money, maybe not. But there's so many choices. You don't have to fish or golf everyday (and yet still I would find more meaning in that than 99% of jobs anyways)

You can donate time and money to organizations of your choice. You can try to monetize your hobbies and say screw it if you don't make a profit. Whatever you want.

All far more rewarding than a corporate America job. Again, if you have found it. Then great. But I think it's ignoring how many meaningless pointless jobs people out there have to focus on the few you think you see who don't work who have pointless lives. That's how I view most Americans who do work
beerad12man
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AG
agsalaska said:

eric76 said:

It always seemed to me that people who don't have to work often live rather pointless lives.

You might say that they exist rather than living.

Think about it.

If you can go fishing every day, then it becomes one of "What did you do yesterday? Fishing", "What are you doing today? Fishing", and "What are you going to do tomorrow? Fishing".

If you get to go fishing every day, then why bother going fishing?


Yea Eric I agree. I don't get the desire to NOT work. I've had jobs that paid very well and jobs that didn't pay very well and jobs that didn't pay at all. But nothing was worse than the few short times that I didn't work at all. I got complacent and everything started going downhill. Work has nothing really to do with money. Pre Covid it was generally accepted that there was no real correlation between money and happiness somewhere just past the poverty line. Work is about the soul, not about money.


It's not surprising that a guy like Elon Musk doesn't understand that. He is a bit off the normal rocker scale to begin with.


I'll just never get the mentality. To each their own. If you can't find anything outside of work to self motivate you, that's on you.

And again for all the pointless lives story, I'll give you x10 of pointless lives wasted at work for 40 years. Many of us can find meaning and passion outside of work. Very, very easily.
Sharpshooter
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AG
Tom Fox
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beerad12man said:

agsalaska said:

eric76 said:

It always seemed to me that people who don't have to work often live rather pointless lives.

You might say that they exist rather than living.

Think about it.

If you can go fishing every day, then it becomes one of "What did you do yesterday? Fishing", "What are you doing today? Fishing", and "What are you going to do tomorrow? Fishing".

If you get to go fishing every day, then why bother going fishing?


Yea Eric I agree. I don't get the desire to NOT work. I've had jobs that paid very well and jobs that didn't pay very well and jobs that didn't pay at all. But nothing was worse than the few short times that I didn't work at all. I got complacent and everything started going downhill. Work has nothing really to do with money. Pre Covid it was generally accepted that there was no real correlation between money and happiness somewhere just past the poverty line. Work is about the soul, not about money.


It's not surprising that a guy like Elon Musk doesn't understand that. He is a bit off the normal rocker scale to begin with.


I'll just never get the mentality. To each their own. If you can't find anything outside of work to self motivate you, that's on you.

And again for all the pointless lives story, I'll give you x10 of pointless lives wasted at work for 40 years. Many of us can find meaning and passion outside of work. Very, very easily.

Man was meant to work. If anyone is not willing to work, let him not eat.
El Gallo Blanco
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Tom Fox said:

beerad12man said:

agsalaska said:

eric76 said:

It always seemed to me that people who don't have to work often live rather pointless lives.

You might say that they exist rather than living.

Think about it.

If you can go fishing every day, then it becomes one of "What did you do yesterday? Fishing", "What are you doing today? Fishing", and "What are you going to do tomorrow? Fishing".

If you get to go fishing every day, then why bother going fishing?


Yea Eric I agree. I don't get the desire to NOT work. I've had jobs that paid very well and jobs that didn't pay very well and jobs that didn't pay at all. But nothing was worse than the few short times that I didn't work at all. I got complacent and everything started going downhill. Work has nothing really to do with money. Pre Covid it was generally accepted that there was no real correlation between money and happiness somewhere just past the poverty line. Work is about the soul, not about money.


It's not surprising that a guy like Elon Musk doesn't understand that. He is a bit off the normal rocker scale to begin with.


I'll just never get the mentality. To each their own. If you can't find anything outside of work to self motivate you, that's on you.

And again for all the pointless lives story, I'll give you x10 of pointless lives wasted at work for 40 years. Many of us can find meaning and passion outside of work. Very, very easily.

Man was meant to work. If anyone is not willing to work, let him not eat.

I can't remember if it was Milton Friedman or Thomas Sowell or someone along those lines, but I remember reading a long time ago, that, in any given population, something like 2-3% of the population is truly unable to provide for themselves (due to mental oir physical disabilities or impairment). May have included special cases like widows and orphans as well.

The point was basically that charities/churches etc. are plenty sufficient to cover these costs and give people the help they truly need, and that if we all had lower taxes, especially so. But I would personally be fine with government assistance if it was that limited in scope, as it would be a very small burden compared to the actual out-of-control costs today, with people generationally hooked on the govt teet.
infinity ag
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Tom Fox said:

beerad12man said:

agsalaska said:

eric76 said:

It always seemed to me that people who don't have to work often live rather pointless lives.

You might say that they exist rather than living.

Think about it.

If you can go fishing every day, then it becomes one of "What did you do yesterday? Fishing", "What are you doing today? Fishing", and "What are you going to do tomorrow? Fishing".

If you get to go fishing every day, then why bother going fishing?


Yea Eric I agree. I don't get the desire to NOT work. I've had jobs that paid very well and jobs that didn't pay very well and jobs that didn't pay at all. But nothing was worse than the few short times that I didn't work at all. I got complacent and everything started going downhill. Work has nothing really to do with money. Pre Covid it was generally accepted that there was no real correlation between money and happiness somewhere just past the poverty line. Work is about the soul, not about money.


It's not surprising that a guy like Elon Musk doesn't understand that. He is a bit off the normal rocker scale to begin with.


I'll just never get the mentality. To each their own. If you can't find anything outside of work to self motivate you, that's on you.

And again for all the pointless lives story, I'll give you x10 of pointless lives wasted at work for 40 years. Many of us can find meaning and passion outside of work. Very, very easily.

Man was meant to work. If anyone is not willing to work, let him not eat.


Any caveats here? Like age or health situations?
infinity ag
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agsalaska said:

eric76 said:

It always seemed to me that people who don't have to work often live rather pointless lives.

You might say that they exist rather than living.

Think about it.

If you can go fishing every day, then it becomes one of "What did you do yesterday? Fishing", "What are you doing today? Fishing", and "What are you going to do tomorrow? Fishing".

If you get to go fishing every day, then why bother going fishing?


Yea Eric I agree. I don't get the desire to NOT work. I've had jobs that paid very well and jobs that didn't pay very well and jobs that didn't pay at all. But nothing was worse than the few short times that I didn't work at all. I got complacent and everything started going downhill. Work has nothing really to do with money. Pre Covid it was generally accepted that there was no real correlation between money and happiness somewhere just past the poverty line. Work is about the soul, not about money.


It's not surprising that a guy like Elon Musk doesn't understand that. He is a bit off the normal rocker scale to begin with.


Well, not everyone wants to be a corporate slave treated badly by their employers. You may be lucky to have a good employer/boss or you have your own company. You are part of the 1% who are lucky. Most people hate their jobs. It is not that they want to not work, it is that they don't want to be treated like trash, hired and laid off whenever a suit up the chain wants a bigger bonus.

People want to do other things with their lives, like home projects, raising kids, gardening, taking care of one's health etc etc. Just going to work is not life. I don't know how old you are but you to be very young.
chris1515
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AG
YouBet said:

So, if jobs are optional then who is going to pay for UBI for everyone??

I will die on the hill that Elon is conflating AI advancement with solving scarcity which I dispute. He thinks AI will solve Economics 101. I don't see how.

Solving scarcity is the only way UBI can be supported at scale on top of all of the other welfare that is given out. If we are in a UBI world, then you can bet we are also in a UHC world.


To me it almost seems like some people will be FORCED to work and bridge that gap between what AI/robots can provide and what they can't. I say forced, because why else would they choose to work?

rynning
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AG
I think I agree with Elon, but how long it will take is the question. AI will always be improving. Robotics will always be improving. At some point, they will be able to do everything people can do, and better, including improving themselves. Even if it's 100 years from now, it will happen.

Then what comes after? How will people find meaning in their lives? It's completely uncharted territory, and the journey won't be easy.
Tom Fox
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infinity ag said:

Tom Fox said:

beerad12man said:

agsalaska said:

eric76 said:

It always seemed to me that people who don't have to work often live rather pointless lives.

You might say that they exist rather than living.

Think about it.

If you can go fishing every day, then it becomes one of "What did you do yesterday? Fishing", "What are you doing today? Fishing", and "What are you going to do tomorrow? Fishing".

If you get to go fishing every day, then why bother going fishing?


Yea Eric I agree. I don't get the desire to NOT work. I've had jobs that paid very well and jobs that didn't pay very well and jobs that didn't pay at all. But nothing was worse than the few short times that I didn't work at all. I got complacent and everything started going downhill. Work has nothing really to do with money. Pre Covid it was generally accepted that there was no real correlation between money and happiness somewhere just past the poverty line. Work is about the soul, not about money.


It's not surprising that a guy like Elon Musk doesn't understand that. He is a bit off the normal rocker scale to begin with.


I'll just never get the mentality. To each their own. If you can't find anything outside of work to self motivate you, that's on you.

And again for all the pointless lives story, I'll give you x10 of pointless lives wasted at work for 40 years. Many of us can find meaning and passion outside of work. Very, very easily.

Man was meant to work. If anyone is not willing to work, let him not eat.


Any caveats here? Like age or health situations?

With age, he needs to have provided for that and have his money earned through working now do the work for him in his old age.

On health, he needs to have his family or charity provide for him until he is able to work.

Exceptions make bad rules. Probably less than 3% are truly unable to work.
agsalaska
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AG
infinity ag said:

agsalaska said:

eric76 said:

It always seemed to me that people who don't have to work often live rather pointless lives.

You might say that they exist rather than living.

Think about it.

If you can go fishing every day, then it becomes one of "What did you do yesterday? Fishing", "What are you doing today? Fishing", and "What are you going to do tomorrow? Fishing".

If you get to go fishing every day, then why bother going fishing?


Yea Eric I agree. I don't get the desire to NOT work. I've had jobs that paid very well and jobs that didn't pay very well and jobs that didn't pay at all. But nothing was worse than the few short times that I didn't work at all. I got complacent and everything started going downhill. Work has nothing really to do with money. Pre Covid it was generally accepted that there was no real correlation between money and happiness somewhere just past the poverty line. Work is about the soul, not about money.


It's not surprising that a guy like Elon Musk doesn't understand that. He is a bit off the normal rocker scale to begin with.


Well, not everyone wants to be a corporate slave treated badly by their employers. You may be lucky to have a good employer/boss or you have your own company. You are part of the 1% who are lucky. Most people hate their jobs. It is not that they want to not work, it is that they don't want to be treated like trash, hired and laid off whenever a suit up the chain wants a bigger bonus.

People want to do other things with their lives, like home projects, raising kids, gardening, taking care of one's health etc etc. Just going to work is not life. I don't know how old you are but you to be very young.


There is nothing at all true about your statement. Nothing. You come off as just absolutely miserable. I can imagine what it was like working with you, but In no world are 99% of the people miserable at their jobs. That's just preposterous. That's so silly it's almost not worth responding too. And also in no world do most employers treat their employees like trash. That's just in your head. It is not real.

We all get it. You had a tough job fitting in at work. We know that. Most of us, whether we make $12 an hour or $1200 don't have that problem.

I'm 48 and on my third career not counting the 16 months I taught high school English which is still the best job I ever had. I've had plenty of success. And so have most of the people around me.

That post may be a bit personal but good lord man. Most of us are not miserable unless we are reading your posts.
Frok
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AG
Quote:

most jobs are also pointless


No job is pointless if it's bringing a check into your account so you can pay your bills.

But a statement like that is silly, if they were pointless companies would certainly not pay for them.

Martin Cash
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AG
That's great news. I'll be 93.
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but the heart of the fool to the left. Ecclesiastes 10:2
rednecked
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AG
have you read Ray Kurzweil? Futurist, engineer at Google, inventor:

this is from an article from 2017. He may have modified it since then but the dude has a good track record for preditions.

Ray Kurzweil, a director of engineering at Google, is a well-known futurist with a track record for accurate predictions.
Kurzweil said, "The year 2029 is the consistent date I've predicted, when an artificial intelligence will pass a valid Turing test achieving human levels of intelligence.
"I have also set the date 2045 for singularity which is when humans will multiply our effective intelligence a billion fold, by merging with the intelligence we have created."
"By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence," Kurzweil said. Singularity is that point in time when all advances in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, will lead to machines smarter than human beings.
"That leads to computers having human intelligence, humans putting them inside our brains, connecting them to the cloud, expanding who we are. Today, that's not just a future scenario," Kurzweil said. "It's partly here, and it's going to accelerate."
Kurzweil predicts that during the 2030s some tech will be invented that can go inside your brain and help your memory. He says it will be a future of unparalleled human-machine synthesis.
"Ultimately, it will affect everything. We're going to be able to meet the physical needs of all humans. We're going to expand our minds and exemplify these artistic qualities that we value."
 
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