infinity ag said:

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aggie93 said:

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Everything I see in that policy sounds great. Getting rid of the Lottery is just so overdue and necessary for one, that alone is a monster win. The $100k fee sounds like it has some caveats and will focus on new visas which is good. Much easier to replace junior level folks than Mid/Senior for a company. This will make it so that the 5 year experienced Engineer can still work and the company needs that skillset but the new college grads on F-1 looking for an H-1 are likely going to be screwed unless they have a great skillset. That will force employers to hire Citizens to train and grow instead of foreigners.

There are some fields that are 80% plus visa and it's going to take time to settle out. Primarily that's testing, verification, etc type roles that are monotonous and less appealing. Most Citizens don't go into those fields any more. So those roles are the most likely to get offshored, I'm seeing a big boost in Canadian roles as well.

I like the bold moves mixed with some outlets for companies to adjust. You can't reverse 20 years of policy and how companies have gotten used to doing business overnight without a huge impact. This is allowing companies to make plans to adjust. For instance even if they decided they wanted to hire just citizens there simply aren't enough qualified ones in some fields right now, in part because so many people doing those jobs are on visa and have been for a while. It forces companies to prioritize who they want to give visas to and only to the most critical skillsets they can't easily replace. There will be some offshoring but I think it will be a lot less than people realize and not in the areas that matter most. That's why the merit and $100k policies are so important, it leaves a safety valve to keep the truly best and brightest. The key is it is still a massive drop down to the next country in terms of where those top engineers want to live both in terms of lifestyle and more importantly where the action is. No one else has anything to remotely compare with the Bay Area or Seattle or even Austin.

So many moving pieces with this but I am very happy with the direction we are headed, I just hope we have a couple of years to let it sort out because if we do this will fundamentally change so many things in a positive way for young people in the US going into tech.

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I agree with everything you say.

Except one thing.
There is a section of American tech people who do go into testing and verification. Not everyone is a super smart person who can devise new AI models, there are people who just want routine no-brain testing jobs. Nothing wrong in that, to each his/her own. My wife started her tech career being a tester before she moved out into areas she enjoys. Testing is a good entry point also.

We absolutely need to keep entry level jobs in America. No offshoring there, else tax them 100%. The economy is an ecosystem and everything works with everything else. You disrupt the entry level jobs and kill them, then kids in America don't want to get into tech anymore (as they can't get jobs) and then this gives more reason to scummy US CEOs to claim there is no talent in America and offshore even more and for the wise Boomers to advise people to do HVAC and take up plumbing jobs.

So I demand 100% taxing on all outsourced entry level jobs.
Wait... maybe Trump's new plan takes care of that with his 100k fee. Dude is smart.

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Don't disagree that Americans can and do go into those fields, I am just saying that those areas are the heaviest in H-1s. When I open a job for a junior/mid level in those fields it is just overwhelmingly H-1s or F-1/OPT hoping to get an H-1 at a rate higher than others. My point is those areas are a challenge because we simply don't have many Americans doing it now and there is a definite need. There are certainly ways to solve that.

I also agree that Testing and Verification, etc are great places to work in. Some people thrive at it. It's also a great place for a more junior person to learn and grow. Most of those areas are SDET types now as well and not doing manual testing, they are writing Python and other code to develop automated testing that is customized for the application.

My main point is we need to look at the areas most impacted and how we can resolve them. Those skillsets are also the most likely to be offshored and they are more likely to be impacted by AI as well.

There are other specialties that are really disproportionate in H-1s as well. Typically they end up being areas that are less "sexy" but not always. I am just very pleased with how Trump is approaching this, he's laying down the gauntlet and forcing major change but he also is being aware of the impacts of that change and moving too fast.