Rossticus said:
I read this very differently.
China has been doing this stuff for decades when it comes to plans for taking back Taiwan and blockading Taiwan. They have to make those threats or else they are admitting Taiwan is lost to them. That's more about Face (which is EVERYTHING in that culture) than it is the reality of an invasion. Making these threats and doing exercises costs them almost nothing but allows them to act powerful and most of all to push the narrative of power to the Chinese people moreso than to other countries (that matters but less than the internal reasons). It can't be overstated how important it is to the CCP to act as if they can retake Taiwan or that they are at least planning to, to change that policy or de-escalate would be humiliating and they would lose support. China hasn't invaded Taiwan because it is very unlikely to succeed and if they do succeed the consequences could be catastrophic for them as well.
What I am seeing here though is they are recognizing that Japan isn't going to sit back if they invade. So they know for sure they will not only have to deal with the Taiwanese military which is well armed and has spent 75 years preparing to repel them they will have to deal with Japan who has a strong Navy and combined with Taiwan will sink most of China's ships before they get anywhere near the coast or if they were to try a blockade. Considering that in order for an invasion of Taiwan to succeed they will need probably 3x or so (probably 4-500k troops) that's interesting. I don't know how you get that many troops on ships to travel across 100 miles of open water when they know they are coming and they only have a couple of beaches they could land on. This of course assumes the US and other countries don't get involved.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."
Ronald Reagan