SeaAg010607 said:
There is a lot going on here that we aren't up to speed on. Would we all like a quick resolution to this? Yes, but how is the issue and what are the consequences.
Any middle eastern country could push Iran over the edge at this point as their economic future is tied up in one island that is exposed and generally hard to easily and meaningfully rearm without everyone seeing it. No one needs to invade, it's a fat juicy target in waiting.
The question is why has no one done it. We now generally know what Iran can do and is willing to do. Time is on our side. It allows us and Irans neighbors to re arm, identify targets and develop a new plan and leaders that we could or are working with. While we get stronger, they get weaker. We've done 2 bombing campaigns. If we need to do a third, it will happen.
What are the risks? A collapsed Iran means a mass exodus of people/weapons and the neighbors don't want that. It means a power vacuum and rogue attacks on the straight for a while until every thing that floats is sunk. - we would need a lot of drones and a lot of surveillance. Shipping companies aren't going to go back into the gulf unless things are very locked down so there isn't a good short term fix until we have EVERY boat target/assigned and ready to be taken out which will be a while.
Most importantly, if Iran collapses, it will make it much more difficult to achieve the stated goal which is to secure / destroy the nuclear program. There is a risk that we don't have 100% knowledge as to the extent of the program and location of the enriched uranium. This needs to be fully verified, but even if it's in one spot that is under a mountain, we would have to send an army in there to get it out as the first fanatic group that can get it or control the area around it wins.
We need a command structure in Iran that we can work with that has the ability to project power and that takes time, but time also strengthens those that are working with us and working against those that have designated themselves to the top of the kill chain.
We need to destroy their infrastructure regardless of your reasons
This is war and being brutal is how you win. You think the people in Iran want electricity more than not being killed, jailed, raped and beaten? Naw
The country in chaos or "civil war" actually makes it easier to send a team in to get the uranium. Think about it..