jwhaby said:MemphisAg1 said:jwhaby said:docb said:jwhaby said:docb said:AGpops1923 said:
So the corps want a refund on the tariffs they paid. But they passed those costs onto us, the consumer. Which means WE paid the tariffs, right? How then, would they be able to keep the refund? That's double dipping in my book.
No refunds for us, the one's that absorbed most of it. Looks like we got screwed on that one.
If American citizens were the ones who "absorbed" the tariffs, why did inflation not increase above 3.0%? Seems like it's the manufacturers and distributors that paid the tariffs, no? Maybe it's them that deserves a refund.
To clarify I paid them in my business. Still sucks.
Honest question. Do you manufacture overseas or do you import goods? It sounds like Trumps tariffs were working if the US is collecting billions of dollars and the consumer isn't paying more through inflation. Isn't this what we want as a country?
I'm not arguing against tariffs in all cases because they make sense in some applications. But I am pushing back on any notion that none of the tariffs showed up in inflation. There are plenty of data points in the media from nonpartisan economists that demonstrate some of that cost was passed onto consumers. Our inflation target has been 2% for at least a couple decades. PCE inflation came in at 3% in December and expected to notch up a bit in January. Tariffs are part of that. You can make the case the benefit is worth the cost but anybody clinging to a view that consumers aren't absorbing any tariff cost is being willfully blind to the facts.
A quick Google search is showing that the TTM inflation rate ended January 2026 was about 2.4%. While this is higher than the target of 2.0%, it's still lower than the average inflation rate over the past 20 years of 2.6%. In the grand scheme of things there has been virtually zero inflation associated with Trump's tariffs. Maybe you have a better metric than CPI that shows how these tariffs are impacting US consumers.
Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) inflation is a flawed metric to estimate the impact of tariffs because it contains three months (Jan-Mar) of data before Trump even announced his tariffs. It's also widely acknowledged it takes some time for tariffs to show up in consumer pricing data because of the time required to work thru the supply chain. Most economists were saying tariff impacts wouldn't really begin to be felt until Q4 of 2025 and the first half of 2026.
PCE -- the Fed's favorite measure of consumer inflation -- just reported at 3.0% for December and is expected to potentially move up further in January, with tariffs playing a role. 3% isn't a disaster, but it is meaningfully above the 2% target. Big brands and big retail are already on record saying they would increase prices last year to pass along some of the tariff impacts.
A wide range of well respected economists -- and Fed officials themselves -- are on record stating that tariffs are contributing to inflation. How much is the key question. It's incorrect to say that all of the tariffs are being passed thru to consumers, because some of them are being eaten by the foreign supplier, the importer, or the brand. And it's also incorrect to say that none of them are passing thru either, because the brands themselves have said they're raising prices due to tariffs, and they're showing up in the inflation data.
Quote:
WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Underlying U.S. inflation increased more than expected in December, and signs are pointing to a further acceleration in January, which would strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before June.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the so-called core PCE price index climbing 0.3%. In the 12 months through December, core PCE inflation advanced 3.0% after increasing 2.8% in November.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-pce-inflation-heats-december-134652023.html
Quote:
From Google AI: Yes, tariffs are appearing in U.S. inflation data, contributing approximately 0.45 to 0.7 percentage points to headline inflation as of late 2025. Increased costs are particularly visible in imported goods like furniture, appliances, and clothing. While companies initially absorbed costs, many are now passing them on to consumers, pushing up prices.