Ag with kids said:

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sts7049 said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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sts7049 said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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sts7049 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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Queso1 said:

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You think so? None of us know what's going on over there. We have no idea how many servicemen have died.

For all we know, that oil will be picked up and sold by Ukraine. Hell. We have a very frequent poster posting "we bombed a school?", as if it's not a fact.

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They hit commercial vessels...I doubt any servicemen were on them.

And, Iranian oil has been re-sanctioned. So, it CAN'T be sold. Won't be surprised if the blockade is back in place to ensure that.

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sanctions just mean selling goes dark

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No market for the "dark" oil and we have eyes on the strait.

Trump indicated this morning he believes the cease fire is over.

Expect the blockade, as mentioned above, will be back
In place.

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there is always a market for it. eyes on the strait is meaningless unless every single ship is stopped (which it wasn't even during the blockade)

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Very few ships slipped by the blockade and even then we know / have a very good idea of origin / destination with a heavy threat of secondary sanctions on those countries.

The market for "illegal" oil is severely limited at this point and no great way for Iran to get paid. Whoever is buying it is doing so at such great risk that they are not paying much for it.

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sanctions have been in place previously for ages. they worked around that just fine. the dark market demand hasn't gone away, sanctions just bring it back to life again.

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If, by "just fine" you mean selling whatever oil could get out for pennies on the dollar, then I'll agree. But, they were leaving BILLIONS on the table, just to get some scraps so they had SOME income.

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getting 5 billion instead of 10 or 15 billion is still 5 billion dollars. i don't consider that scraps.

[Stop derailing this thread with a months-old data point. You are clearly trolling others -- Staff]

sts7049 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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sts7049 said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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sts7049 said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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sts7049 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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Queso1 said:

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You think so? None of us know what's going on over there. We have no idea how many servicemen have died.

For all we know, that oil will be picked up and sold by Ukraine. Hell. We have a very frequent poster posting "we bombed a school?", as if it's not a fact.

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They hit commercial vessels...I doubt any servicemen were on them.

And, Iranian oil has been re-sanctioned. So, it CAN'T be sold. Won't be surprised if the blockade is back in place to ensure that.

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sanctions just mean selling goes dark

---

No market for the "dark" oil and we have eyes on the strait.

Trump indicated this morning he believes the cease fire is over.

Expect the blockade, as mentioned above, will be back
In place.

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there is always a market for it. eyes on the strait is meaningless unless every single ship is stopped (which it wasn't even during the blockade)

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Very few ships slipped by the blockade and even then we know / have a very good idea of origin / destination with a heavy threat of secondary sanctions on those countries.

The market for "illegal" oil is severely limited at this point and no great way for Iran to get paid. Whoever is buying it is doing so at such great risk that they are not paying much for it.

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sanctions have been in place previously for ages. they worked around that just fine. the dark market demand hasn't gone away, sanctions just bring it back to life again.

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If, by "just fine" you mean selling whatever oil could get out for pennies on the dollar, then I'll agree. But, they were leaving BILLIONS on the table, just to get some scraps so they had SOME income.

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getting 5 billion instead of 10 or 15 billion is still 5 billion dollars. i don't consider that scraps.

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It's not 50%. It's more like 5%. Because they're selling 20% of the oil they normally could AND at a discount.

So instead of $10B, they're getting $500M or less.

It was hurting them bad (which is why their economy was in the ****ter).

To be fair, Iran does not have anything that resembles a functioning "economy".

To the extent they made any money during the MOU period, it was insufficient scraps to keep them from playing along, hence they begged for a quiet period to bury the remaining pieces of not so supreme leader which they then use to try and harass the SoH.

Thats backfired on them yet again.

Haleyscomet50 said:

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Iran is in control we are on the loosing side look at the mou. We lost they control this thing anything short of that is propaganda. Trump can't and won't bomb them to the stone ages this is what happened when they call your bluff. This is foreign policy not buying a hotel. I hope for the sake of the American taxpayer we can buy our way out of this and keep gas prices as low as possible.

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Thanks John Kerry.

We are not sending pallets of cash this time.

Cause Trump won't bomb them…

Money to Iran is impossible to estimate
Sanctions take years to work and usually involves some kinetic warfare to weaken the opponent and force the other side to the table ( Russia v Ukraine as an example )

Currently I think the Iranian leadership will outlast Bibi and Trump
Especially because Trump does stupid **** like rolling into NATO then criticizing & threatening people we need help from. If we are going to break this regime it will take NATO helping enforce sanctions

The cherry on top is the Greenland smack what a total clown show

That was a lot of words to say Orange Man Bad.

We don't need the help of NATO.

NATO dude was basically sitting in Trumps lap begging for treats.

Trump was there to tell Big Turkey to stay the **** on the sidelines and compass the message on to their little friends in the region - help Iran in anyway and we will **** you up.

Also told Z he needs to solve Russia mostly on his own.

flown-the-coop said:

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To be fair, Iran does not have anything that resembles a functioning "economy".

To the extent they made any money during the MOU period, it was insufficient scraps to keep them from playing along, hence they begged for a quiet period to bury the remaining pieces of not so supreme leader which they then use to try and harass the SoH.

Thats backfired on them yet again.

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they exported about 60 million barrels since the blockade was lifted.

More like 40-50 million with substantially all all of that being oil already in transit and loadings at Kharg island. It does not reflect actual "deliveries".

Even at 60 million and a gracious average price to arrive at $5 billion in gross revenues, which equates to about 10 days of what the economy of Iran is losing as a result of the conflict and blockade.

Much less when you consider that Iran does have costs associated with that oil.

So explain how that is all winning news for Iran?

For the Trump loyalist wing, who goal tended his Messiah meme....what would it take after the smoke clears for you to ultimately concede that Epic Fury was a failure?

Presidents make mistakes. Not all military missions are successful. Not saying Epic Fury is a total disaster, but its cost is far exceeding any benefits to the US.

I dont see how fallout doesnt include Trump pointing the finger at Bibi or someone else. Consider the North Korea nuke spat. Over time, people have come to realize the rocket man drama was over hyped with Nuclear Holocaust alarmism. That same realization may ultimately come with Iran also, but after adding 100s of billions in debt to our balance sheet.

Iran knows Trump needs a storyline to claim he saved us from a 4th Nuclear Holocaust on his watch. So far, it looks like they dont want to give it to him without something that makes Obama cash pallets look like chump change.

No one knows what the benefits are. If it kept Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and saves future generations, it was absolutely worth it.

I'm no Trump loyalist, but there is absolutely no way to call this a failure at this stage. This is a shift in ME power away from Iran that will take a minimum of years to measure the real effects. I for one think it was a can being kicked down the road for too long and needed to be dealt with, and the sooner the better. Actual performance rating is to be determined.

Phatbob said:

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I'm no Trump loyalist, but there is absolutely no way to call this a failure at this stage. This is a shift in ME power away from Iran that will take a minimum of years to measure the real effects. I for one think it was a can being kicked down the road for too long and needed to be dealt with, and the sooner the better. Actual performance rating is to be determined.

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It's an ignorant take for people to flat out state this is a failure. In no world is a massive setback of Iran's military capability and its proxies a failure. There are certainly outcomes that are not good here too.

Phatbob said:

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I'm no Trump loyalist, but there is absolutely no way to call this a failure at this stage.

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Ok. What would it take for a future complete assessment to deem Epic Fury a failure? We have seen lots of hypothetical victory scenarios, what about failure?

We removed the regime in Iraq and prevented them from building nukes. That war is widely regarded as a failure due to the massive cash burn and fallout.

In the case of Iran, the IRGC is still in power and a major oil route is now contested. Restoring order in the strait and imposing nuke inspections would put us back pretty close to where we were before. Midnight hammer was an efficient success. Epic Fury is hemorrhaging tax dollars and drawing us into ME quagmire territory. Just as Charlie Kirk predicted, before he was murdered.

While I wasn't a big fan of the MOU because it appeared that Trump was desperate for a deal to end a conflict that was lasting longer than he expected and likely to cause him political pain... I do think the fact he tried to settle for peace now gives him more leeway to hammer them militarily if they keep shooting at ships in the strait. The Dem haters will always hate, but this should keep reasonable people on his plantation because there is no reasonable person who would accept the Iranians attacking cargo ships unprovoked.

Paul.Allen said:

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Phatbob said:

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I'm no Trump loyalist, but there is absolutely no way to call this a failure at this stage.

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Ok. What would it take for a future complete assessment to deem Epic Fury a failure? We have seen lots of hypothetical victory scenarios, what about failure?

We removed the regime in Iraq and prevented them from building nukes. That war is widely regarded as a failure due to the massive cash burn and fallout.

In the case of Iran, the IRGC is still in power and a major oil route is now contested. Restoring order in the strait and imposing nuke inspections would put us back pretty close to where we were before. Midnight hammer was an efficient success. Epic Fury is hemorrhaging tax dollars and drawing us into ME quagmire territory. Just as Charlie Kirk predicted, before he was murdered.

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Ahh, I think I know who we are talking with now and way to jump the shark with the "quagmire" assertion.

I think given the far reaching disruption of Iran in the region, aka Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraq, etc. if that activity is drastically reduced, then we can consider this a success. Without putting boots on the ground, totally eliminating the IRGC is not going to be a certainty in the near future, though it may still fall due to a combination of external and internal pressure, given enough time.

Dealing with Iran was going to need to happen at some point, so I don't know that trying to do so now without a full on invasion could ever be considered a failure given the success it already has had, though potentially could be only a partial victory, long term.

flown-the-coop said:

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Queso1 said:

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You think so? None of us know what's going on over there. We have no idea how many servicemen have died. For all we know, that oil will be picked up and sold by Ukraine. Hell. We have a very frequent poster posting "we bombed a school?", as if it's not a fact.

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We bombed a school?

If I put a swingset on top of the Pentagon can I call it a school? There used to be a daycare at the Pentagon. Disney petition the UN to make sure it would be a war crime to target the Pentagon?

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I think a more apt comparison would be if someone bombed one of the hundreds of schools we have on our military bases. Would that be acceptable as collateral damage?

From reading your posts its pretty clear an Epic Fury failure is incomprehensible to you.

It wasnt long ago many argued this wasnt even a war. Then it shifted to a 47 year old war. It was an effort to liberate Iranians, then it became some ambiguous "they can never have a nuke" narrative.

The Epic Fury fallout will ultimately involve Trump shafting Israel, and getting back to a more focused America first agenda. Any other alternative puts Trump's legacy at risk. His sons know Kushner was doing Bibi's bidding. The political fallout will be the rest of America coming to the realization that this is Israel's war.

Paul.Allen said:

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From reading your posts its pretty clear an Epic Fury failure is incomprehensible to you.

It wasnt long ago many argued this wasnt even a war. Then it shifted to a 47 year old war. It was an effort to liberate Iranians, then it became some ambiguous "they can never have a nuke" narrative.

The Epic Fury fallout will ultimately involve Trump shafting Israel, and getting back to a more focused America first agenda. Any other alternative puts Trump's legacy at risk. His sons know Kushner was doing Bibi's bidding. The political fallout will the rest of America coming to that realization that this is Israel's war.

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Any other cliches and strawmen you want to work in there? I know it's been a day or two since the last batch, but it's ok to pace yourself.

bigtruckguy3500 said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Queso1 said:

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You think so? None of us know what's going on over there. We have no idea how many servicemen have died. For all we know, that oil will be picked up and sold by Ukraine. Hell. We have a very frequent poster posting "we bombed a school?", as if it's not a fact.

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We bombed a school?

If I put a swingset on top of the Pentagon can I call it a school? There used to be a daycare at the Pentagon. Disney petition the UN to make sure it would be a war crime to target the Pentagon?

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I think a more apt comparison would be if someone bombed one of the hundreds of schools we have on our military bases. Would that be acceptable as collateral damage?

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No, the comparison is a playground on top of a military target. Not a school on a 1000-acre military base.

And if a country broadly targeted a military base of ours and a school was damaged and children killed, yes that is acceptable collateral damage and in no way remotely a war crime.

This is long, long settled "science".

Phatbob said:

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Paul.Allen said:

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From reading your posts its pretty clear an Epic Fury failure is incomprehensible to you.

It wasnt long ago many argued this wasnt even a war. Then it shifted to a 47 year old war. It was an effort to liberate Iranians, then it became some ambiguous "they can never have a nuke" narrative.

The Epic Fury fallout will ultimately involve Trump shafting Israel, and getting back to a more focused America first agenda. Any other alternative puts Trump's legacy at risk. His sons know Kushner was doing Bibi's bidding. The political fallout will the rest of America coming to that realization that this is Israel's war.

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Any other cliches and strawmen you want to work in there? I know it's been a day or two since the last batch, but it's ok to pace yourself.

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Keyno lives.

No, they will not make honest arguments just bizarrely impossible takes on what is going on and how Israel (the government of course) needs to be dealt with.

flown-the-coop said:

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AGHouston11 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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AGHouston11 said:

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Eliminatus said:

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We are back to blowing more things up. In retaliation for someone hucking a rock at a ship. Weird stance by us, ngl.

U.S. Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway. The U.S. strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 7, 2026

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To be fair they probably were just waiting for an excuse to blow some more stuff up. At least Trumps not saying over and over they have no Navy or Air Force.

Also he told many of his people to screw off so he is left with his new maga neocon friends who want to send in ground troops and have since from the beginning: So blowing some stuff up will make them happy.

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Well, they didn't use Navy or Air Force.

Because...reasons...

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Well exactly. They have controlled the strait without either but for some reason Trump thought removing both was going to lead to a quick and total surrender.

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They do not and have never "controlled the strait". And their days of claiming such are in the wake of passing ships.

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I guess Trump misspoke when he claimed nobody knew or expected Iran to SHUT IT DOWN. He said this after they SHUT IT DOWN. And ever since he's trying to restore it back.