So, as we are mostly thru primary season at this point, the GOP's SLF (senate leadership committee) has released their priorities/spend plans, which make sense to me:

Quote:

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The SLF is playing mostly in Republican-held territory: 1) Ohio = $79 million; 2) North Carolina = $71 million; 3) Maine = $42 million; and 4) Iowa = $29 million. But it also is targeting three Democrat-held seats: 1) Georgia = $44 million; 2) Michigan = $45 million; and 3) New Hampshire = $17 million.
This breaking news makes it a good time for one of my periodic examinations of the 2026 Senate races.
Currently, the Republicans have a 53 to 47-seat majority in the Senate. There are 35 seats up for grabs in 2026. The Democrats need a net pick up of four seats to win control of the chamber.

The MSM has been endlessly hyping Democrat chances to win control of the Senate. But the central problem for them is that only two Republican seats Maine and North Carolina are in competitive states. The other 20 GOP seats are in states where the Republicans have a big edge, with Donald Trump winning them by double digits. That almost never happens in Senate elections, let alone twice. In the 2025 Virginia elections, the Democrats won a landslide, but they still didn't carry a single district where Trump won with that margin.

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I think this checks out, and share Mark Halperin's take (hardly a conservative commentator, but fair imho) from a couple weeks ago that it's fairly implausible for the Dems to take the senate this year, despite all the noise/betting markets etc. If I had to wager 2 dollars on an outcome, I think the GOP winds up with 54 seats next year.

Conventional wisdom says Democrats are favored to win the Senate. My deep reporting says that’s wrong.

On today’s @NextUpHalperin, I break down the 9 races that will decide control—and why even a near-perfect Democratic run might not be enough.

You haven’t seen the map like…

— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) March 24, 2026

I also like that they aren't making some show about fearing Talarico as a threat.

I think it would be a fair statement to say that a year ago, the democrats had zero chance of taking the senate. Now it's a 10% chance. Anyone saying it's a near certainty that the democrats will take the senate is someone not worth listening to.

The house is a different story.

https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/

Toss-ups
Maine (dem)
Michigan (rep)
North Carolina (rep)
Georgia (dem) I would put this is a lean

Leans:
Alaska (rep)
Ohio (rep)
New Hampshire

-I think Platner is in a good spot to win Maine
-Turning point is pushing to go heavy on New Hampshire
-If Iran war doesn't get out of hand I don't see Republicans losing Ohio or Alaska

I think Republicans get 53 unless they get the upset in NH

Good post but I disagree around the edges, and expect totenkopf Platner to lose in a surge that 'surprises' again on election day; Collins is just a survivor. Georgia and Michigan I am more optimistic about for the GOP, and would expect MI to be the one that is positive for the Republicans.

NC I am very concerned about as the Dems have a good candidate and funding behind him. AK and OH the GOP would have to work to blow, imho, which I would not put past them.

The biggest concern for Collins is if Trump or the more MAGA side of the party starts pressuring her to nuke the filibuster for the SAVE act and starts fracturing her support.

I see zero chance of a filibuster rule change prior to November. If it were just Collins, maybe, but Tillis/Turtle/Murk make it a non-issue, other than for the base (to say nothing of Cornyn if/when he loses the run off). In truth, around a fifth or more of the GOP senators don't want it removed/limited while in the majority, as they enjoy the Dems blocking Trump/SAVE act etc.

My Prediction
House-Rs lose by 3 or 4 seats. If Virginia redistricts than it will be 7 to 8 seats, sad that R states are weak and did not redistrict. The Supreme Court decision on race districts will be decided on too close to election for those states to redraw

Senate
Maine-toss up, Planter seems to be very popular and is polling really good against Collins. Even with Hitler tattoo
Alaska-R, closer than what I want it to be but Rs will hold
Ohio-R, see Alaska
North Carolina-Dem, Cooper is up in the polls by like 8 in most of them

Georgia-lean R, Republican state, Atlanta fraud exposed recently. Black turnout will be down
NH-lean R, Sununu was a VERY popular Governor--TRUMP STAY AWAY FROM THIS RACE
Michigan-toss up, The R candidate came within 11k votes last election and is polling well, but this is a blue state.

I am going to say Rs carry senate with 53 seats

In other news, the Georgia 14th (MTGs old district), saw a 25 point shift left last night in their special election.

Shouldn't have any bearing on predictions in F16 though.

Republicans give me the same confidence the Fran, Sherman, and Sumlin football teams did with a 20 point lead in the 3rd quarter. You know they're going to screw it up. You just don't know how.

John Sununu is running for senate. His bother Chris was the popular governor.

JDUB08AG said:

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John Sununu is running for senate. His bother Chris was the popular governor.

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thanks, obviously did not know that.

Either way I think Rs hold the senate, will be interesting to watch

K2-HMFIC said:

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In other news, the Georgia 14th (MTGs old district), saw a 25 point shift left last night in their special election.

Shouldn't have any bearing on predictions in F16 though.

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How much money Dems waste on that race?

K2-HMFIC said:

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In other news, the Georgia 14th (MTGs old district), saw a 25 point shift left last night in their special election.

Shouldn't have any bearing on predictions in F16 though.

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Only a dip**** thinks any "shift" in a special election means anything

2026NCAggies said:

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JDUB08AG said:

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John Sununu is running for senate. His bother Chris was the popular governor.

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thanks, obviously did not know that.

Either way I think Rs hold the senate, will be interesting to watch

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John was actually a senator in the early 2000s. That I did not know. Will be an interesting one to watch.

Agreed that the GOP holds the senate. It will be tight and I could see as little as 51 and as many as 55. I'm leaning towards 52.

Teslag said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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In other news, the Georgia 14th (MTGs old district), saw a 25 point shift left last night in their special election.

Shouldn't have any bearing on predictions in F16 though.

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Only a dip**** thinks any "shift" in a special election means anything

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Well…history shows that this level of outside party victory in special elections results in a massive wave.


My guess:

51-49 Dems

NC, ME, AK, & OH all go D.

K2-HMFIC said:

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Teslag said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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In other news, the Georgia 14th (MTGs old district), saw a 25 point shift left last night in their special election.

Shouldn't have any bearing on predictions in F16 though.

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Only a dip**** thinks any "shift" in a special election means anything

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Well…history shows that this level of outside party victory in special elections results in a massive wave.


My guess:

51-49 Dems

NC, ME, AK, & OH all go D.

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Alaska and Ohio? GTFO with that nonsense. And the GOP did well in an off year in 2021, like Virginia specifically, then had a massive dud in 2022 when everyone was expecting a red wave.

Teslag said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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Teslag said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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In other news, the Georgia 14th (MTGs old district), saw a 25 point shift left last night in their special election.

Shouldn't have any bearing on predictions in F16 though.

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Only a dip**** thinks any "shift" in a special election means anything

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Well…history shows that this level of outside party victory in special elections results in a massive wave.


My guess:

51-49 Dems

NC, ME, AK, & OH all go D.

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Alaska and Ohio? GTFO with that nonsense. And the GOP did well in an off year in 2021, like Virginia specifically, then had a massive dud in 2022 when everyone was expecting a red wave.

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Gee Tesla…let's see…Lisa Murkowski is an independent and Sherrod Brown left office a year ago…so maybe we should slow down with the assuredness here.

HTownAg98 said:

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I think it would be a fair statement to say that a year ago, the democrats had zero chance of taking the senate. Now it's a 10% chance. Anyone saying it's a near certainty that the democrats will take the senate is someone not worth listening to.

The house is a different story.

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Republicans better get their **** together. If they get both houses we're ****ed on multiple levels.

If the senate did get to 50-50 I think the real issue would be the likelihood of an Xmas 'surprise' flip by Murk.

This educated guess is about like the upcoming ESPN Preseason Top 25.

K2-HMFIC said:

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Teslag said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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Teslag said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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In other news, the Georgia 14th (MTGs old district), saw a 25 point shift left last night in their special election.

Shouldn't have any bearing on predictions in F16 though.

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Only a dip**** thinks any "shift" in a special election means anything

---

Well…history shows that this level of outside party victory in special elections results in a massive wave.


My guess:

51-49 Dems

NC, ME, AK, & OH all go D.

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Alaska and Ohio? GTFO with that nonsense. And the GOP did well in an off year in 2021, like Virginia specifically, then had a massive dud in 2022 when everyone was expecting a red wave.

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Gee Tesla…let's see…Lisa Murkowski is an independent and Sherrod Brown left office a year ago…so maybe we should slow down with the assuredness here.

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You no mean Ohio that gets redder and redder with each election?

The issue is that Brown is almost getting incumbency (having been elected statewide for decades) benefits despite being a recent loser there, vs. Husted, and that is why the (above GOP) Senate Leadership fund is committed to tossing nearly $80 million to protect the latter. Brown is a fundraising juggernaut (he outraised Husted nearly 2:1 in 2025, individually) and the Dems will probably outspend the GOP somehow.

I don't think Dem handicappers would say their guy is going to be a favorite in November right now, but it is going to be a tight race and one of their better opportunities to foist a communist upon a red state since Georgia did what it did over the past 4+ years.

Kalshi has Brown at 59% and Husted at 41%

He didn't lose to Husted he lost to Moreno in 24 and with just about anybody except Harris at the top of the ticket he probably squeaks out a win in 24

Husted was appointed to fill Vance's term has won statewide but not the as a senator

Maybe Ohio is getting Redder but the mid term backlash against Biden in '22 and Harris being a terrible candidate in '24 are imo the reason those elections were more R than the prior elections in '18 & '20

Brown survived the 2018 election in what was a small red wave year there is a reason Kalshi has him 3:2 favorite

nortex97 said:

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The issue is that Brown is almost getting incumbency (having been elected statewide for decades) benefits despite being a recent loser there, vs. Husted, and that is why the (above GOP) Senate Leadership fund is committed to tossing nearly $80 million to protect the latter. Brown is a fundraising juggernaut (he outraised Husted nearly 2:1 in 2025, individually) and the Dems will probably outspend the GOP somehow.

I don't think Dem handicappers would say their guy is going to be a favorite in November right now, but it is going to be a tight race and one of their better opportunities to foist a communist upon a red state since Georgia did what it did over the past 4+ years.

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I think this is accurate…when combined with Blue momentum I think this puts him over the top.

The surprise state im looking at is NE. Osborne almost won in 24, and given tariffs impact on their ag economy, I think he could take out Ricketts.

NE?

Don't forget the GOP got smoked in the 2018 house races but actually gained 2 senate seats.

Teslag said:

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NE?

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Dan Osborn an IND lost by 62K votes in 2024 with Trump on the ballot. Now in a wave year in a state plagued by tariffs…you'd be crazy not to think that it's not possible.

Thx, I disagree on NE as Osborn is not a former holder of the office, and the paper thin veneer of 'independence' around him is not holding now (again VA and NJ have helped the GOP in this messaging), let alone in November, to say nothing of corruption etc.

Nebraska isn't a particularly costly media market, and neither side are throwing cash at it (or anything in Iowa) for a reason, imho. Very tough reach for them. Nebraskans just don't want Majority Leader Schumer, and that's who he'd caucus with 100 percent.

Sq 17 said:

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Kalshi has Brown at 59% and Husted at 41%

He didn't lose to Husted he lost to Moreno in 24 and with just about anybody except Harris at the top of the ticket he probably squeaks out a win in 24

Husted was appointed to fill Vance's term has won statewide but not the as a senator

Maybe Ohio is getting Redder but the mid term backlash against Biden in '22 and Harris being a terrible candidate in '24 are imo the reason those elections were more R than the prior elections in '18 & '20

there is a reason Kalshi has him 3:2 favorite

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Why did you quote yourself? Long term prediction market bets on individual political races are empirically absurdly impractical/inaccurate, imho. I didn't think that needed to be said.

I am sure kalshi/polymarket alike had Cornyn as a heavy primary favorite 6 to 9 months ago as well, and certainly both favored Biden at this time in 2024, nationally. They are easily manipulable (including by foreign money)/herd-mentality tools this far out. I put a little stock into them personally 30-60 days out or so, but probably shouldn't.

K2-HMFIC said:

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In other news, the Georgia 14th (MTGs old district), saw a 25 point shift left last night in their special election.

Shouldn't have any bearing on predictions in F16 though.

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and the GOP just won a district in Alaska that was +8 for Kamala

nortex97 said:

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Thx, I disagree on NE as Osborn is not a former holder of the office, and the paper thin veneer of 'independence' around him is not holding now (again VA and NJ have helped the GOP in this messaging), let alone in November, to say nothing of corruption etc.

Nebraska isn't a particularly costly media market, and neither side are throwing cash at it (or anything in Iowa) for a reason, imho. Very tough reach for them. Nebraskans just don't want Majority Leader Schumer, and that's who he'd caucus with 100 percent.

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The Schumer piece will be interesting…regardless depending on oil prices evolve thru the year I think this could be an interesting race.

Specifically thinking about the impact of tariffs on ag.

Tried to edit
Accidentally quoted
Had issues with reception and phone stopped working

Ah, no worries.

This is actually more great news as Cassidy is a rino who should absolutely be discarded, but I never trust Louisiana voters to do the right thing.

📊 Louisiana Senate GOP Primary

🟥 Julia Letlow: 29%
🟥 John Fleming: 24%
🟥 Bill Cassidy (inc): 20%
–––
Head-to-Head Matchups

Letlow 50% (+26) vs Cassidy 24%

Fleming 49% (+23) vs Cassidy 26%

Letlow 34% (+1) vs Fleming 33%

BDPC | 3/18/26 | LVhttps://t.co/X5uwSIZpMK pic.twitter.com/aKkYNfgSsJ

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 10, 2026

That's a lot of undecided & did not know LA is back to doing Party Nominating Primaries