flown-the-coop said:

---

Sure…

---

I was under the impression this was a different poll than Des Moines…

However, the larger issue here is that nationally the GOP has some serious issues and is competitive in states they should be running away in.

K2-HMFIC said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Sure…

---

I was under the impression this was a different poll than Des Moines…

However, the larger issue here is that nationally the GOP has some serious issues and is competitive in states they should be running away in.

---

His point is maybe it's not wise to believe polls.

Seems obvious but the TDS haze is thick these days. Maybe humidity and the Saharan dust blowing in.

Teslag said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Sure…

---

I was under the impression this was a different poll than Des Moines…

However, the larger issue here is that nationally the GOP has some serious issues and is competitive in states they should be running away in.

---

His point is maybe it's not wise to believe polls.

---

It is an absolute mistake to look at polls as some sort of exact predictor of the future.

However, polls are useful to project trends and direction.

Go look at polling in the 2018 midterms. Nelson would have won Florida. Tester would have won Montana. Donnelly would have won Indiana.

Broseph said:

---

I see a lot of polls with dems favored. That doesn't look positive.

---

Why? That's been SOP every election cycle since, at least, 2008. It's hard to trust the accuracy of a poll more than 30 days out from an election.

In the 2018 midterms, Republicans suffered significant losses in House contests, yet still managed to increase their Senate representation by two seats.

Like the trend in November 2024 that Kamala was going to be the next POTUS? That trend?

Sometimes a broken clock is right. Most of the time it is not.

Jessy255 said:

---

In the 2018 midterms, Republicans suffered significant losses in House contests, yet still managed to increase their Senate representation by two seats.

---

Trump exhaustion was a real thing at the time. Derangement had set in on the left and moving to the right. But plenty on the right were simply exhausted of Trump and the MSM attacks on him and were thinking house would provide some check on them.

Using similar rhetoric now. Booker is all in on Trump is a threat to democracy and that winning the house and senate in 2026 is the only way to ensure Trump can take no further action as POTUS.

You know, separate but equal except when Dems control a branch then that branch is most superior to all others and if they do not comply then they will be stacked, packed, impeached, et cetera.

flown-the-coop said:

---

Like the trend in November 2024 that Kamala was going to be the next POTUS? That trend?

Sometimes a broken clock is right. Most of the time it is not.

---

Works the other way too. In 2022 every poll showed a sizable red wave. Never happened. Polls are simply worthless now. Even in determining trends.

Agree. I am actually (and surprisingly I know) hopeful and even a bit confident that Rs hold the House and make gains in the Senate.

Summer of America 250 has a long way to go, gas has a long way to drop, and the campaigns for November are just now getting started.

Rs are LOADED with plenty of fodder to through at the Dems. Platner has plenty of company out there.

In fact, the Dems are putting together a disaster of a slate of candidates like Rs have been known for. Giddy up.

flown-the-coop said:

---

Like the trend in November 2024 that Kamala was going to be the next POTUS? That trend?

Sometimes a broken clock is right. Most of the time it is not.

---

What polls showed that????

For real…

Almost all of them

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/national

Teslag said:

---

Almost all of them

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/national

---

Bud…these are national polling averages…not state by state breakouts.

Most state polls had Trump winning the electoral college.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

State polls had Trump losing Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania tied (with 11 of 15 state polls taken in November giving Penn to Harris).


Those 3 give the election to Harris. They were wrong.

Correct. And Democrat-communists, lest we forget, were very excited about a fraudulent poll in Iowa showing Harris ahead as well.

With the twin implosions of Platner and Talarico plus the increasing likelihood that El-Sayed becomes the nominee in Michigan, along with the reverse push-down coattails of Kesha Bottoms in Georgia and the obvious split between White and Black Democrats across the nation,… https://t.co/6ZrvI1QTq3

— Chris (@chriswithans) June 24, 2026

55 is more plausible than ever, and the communist Dem candidates in NY in the House will give more momentum/ammo to the GOP to campaign with in battleground senate races nationwide. The chair of the House Hispanic Caucus lost too.

Dems worked to import the third world for peepaw's whole tenure and it is backfiring on them spectacularly now.

El Sayed seems to have cemented his lead in the commie primary in Michigan, and has advocated for violence/'hate speech'. Good redstate piece on this particular scum bag;

Quote:

---

In an article that I read right HERE at the local paper, Finley opines in an Op-Ed with the title The First Amendment is not a shield for violence, and I have to admit I was a bit shocked.

Quote:

---

The Democratic candidate for Michigan's open Senate seat is selling the idea that the First Amendment covers violence and vandalism, if done in the name of a political cause.

I'm a free speech absolutist. I don't think hate speech should be recognized as its own category of expression. Americans should be free to say the most awful things without legal consequence.

---

Americans ALL THE TIME say stupid things, and I wholeheartedly agree with him on that. We should be allowed to sound as stupid as we choose to, and there should not be any crime in that.
But...

Quote:

---

But El-Sayed, in defending the University of Michigan pro-Palestinian activists named in a federal indictment for crimes committed to protest support for Israel's war in Gaza, is arguing the defendants are being prosecuted for their views rather than their acts.
Spray painting messages across a private home, as the protesters did to the houses of UM officials, is not free speech; it's vandalism.

---

Your words, within reason, should not be an automatic ticket to getting arrested. I think people wiser than moi have opined that it constitutes a thought crime, which is still not a crime at all. Yet if words lead to action, or if there are no words and just action, that absolutely should be punishable.

That is a bit tricky to maneuver around. Sayed has not been charged in any of these incidents, but he is also not, from what I've seen, reprimanding the people who've done things such as this.
The ice would be getting thin for most folks, I believe.

However, in some of the latest polling on the race between Republican Mike Rogers and the (leading) Democratic challenger Abdul El-Sayed, the race is neck and neck. This actually is a race which will not be decided until November of this year, and it is looking like it might be too close to call this far out.

---

This should be winnable in November, though it will cost $$$ to do so and rely on a somewhat honest election in a blue state. RCP has him up 2 on Rogers in the general, but not a lot of polling.

Fox has a good poll for Collins (below is a hysterical democrat lamenting as much):

Platner also has a *lower favorability rating than Collins*

He's -10, she's -3. pic.twitter.com/sanJGlN8D5

— Hunter📈🌈📊 (@StatisticUrban) June 30, 2026

ETA: the GOP edge on fundraising/spending (and now coordination advantage thanks to scotus) is going to start having an impact now imho:

We've tracked $842.6M in fall reservations targeting Congressional races.

Of that total, $463.2M is targeting Senate races. Republican advertisers have $139M more in reservations than Democrats

Sign up for our monthly newsletter to learn more: https://t.co/6TMAlTtfWR pic.twitter.com/kI3MQkFMI1

— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) June 30, 2026

GA, MI, and NC should get much more $$$.

nortex97 said:

---

Fox has a good poll for Collins (below is a hysterical democrat lamenting as much):

Platner also has a *lower favorability rating than Collins*

He's -10, she's -3. pic.twitter.com/sanJGlN8D5

— Hunter📈🌈📊 (@StatisticUrban) June 30, 2026

ETA: the GOP edge on fundraising/spending (and now coordination advantage thanks to scotus) is going to start having an impact now imho:

We've tracked $842.6M in fall reservations targeting Congressional races.

Of that total, $463.2M is targeting Senate races. Republican advertisers have $139M more in reservations than Democrats

Sign up for our monthly newsletter to learn more: https://t.co/6TMAlTtfWR pic.twitter.com/kI3MQkFMI1

— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) June 30, 2026

GA, MI, and NC should get much more $$$.

---

Random thoughts...

I think NC is a foregone conclusion it will turn blue and we need to cut our losses.

MI absolutely needs a major cash infusion regardless of who's on the ticket against Rogers.

GA - I can't see Ossoff losing...Collins just doesnt come across as a great candidate...

ME - Collins needs to keep it up here...she's ahead but lacks enthusiasm on the campaign...we need some help getting turn out.

And whoever is saying Talarico's campaign is imploding is high...

I think Cooper is going to face more headwinds than many expect, and NC isn't the most expensive state to run ads.

https://t.co/RqVXSSADCh

— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) June 30, 2026

• Social Policies: Vetoed bans on youth gender-affirming care (HB808), transgender sports participation (HB574), and related measures (e.g., SB49 on school notifications)—moves overridden by the legislature amid significant backlash from parents and women’s sports advocates.… pic.twitter.com/l7UyAI6Pkh

— S P E A K ™ (@S_P_E_A_K_tm) June 30, 2026

Respectable takes though I think similarly Talarico in particular is going to have a tough time driving turnout/growing his share of independents etc.

Voters: if you be normal we’ll give you the senate

Democrats: https://t.co/W6JWrXeS7e pic.twitter.com/EbSFCv6HTX

— Tim (@trouble_man90) July 1, 2026

BMX Bandit said:

---

Voters: if you be normal we’ll give you the senate

Democrats: https://t.co/W6JWrXeS7e pic.twitter.com/EbSFCv6HTX

— Tim (@trouble_man90) July 1, 2026

---

I'm increasingly bearish on the Dems ability to pull the Senate…they've got a DSA problem and they don't know what to do about it.

Quote:

---

And whoever is saying Talarico's campaign is imploding is high...

---

It's not imploding but there's a clear momentum **** for Paxton in the past couple of weeks as Republicans come home and people find out who and what HIV+ Talarico is.