What are the real world consequences of us pulling out of NATO

11,045 Views | 199 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Dirt 05
Old McDonald
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schmellba99 said:

Old McDonald said:

Silent For Too Long said:

Old McDonald said:

Silent For Too Long said:

Old McDonald said:

NATO is the only alliance in history where the dominant military power gets 31 countries to organize their entire defense architecture around american leadership, american equipment, american interoperability standards, and american strategic priorities.

leaving surrenders the most favorable strategic arrangement any great power has ever negotiated and hands the board to russia and china for free.


Everything you posted is false.

Throughout history, hegemonic countries have exacted tribute to keep the wheels of global economy well greased while shouldering the brunt of the military load. Egypt, Assiyia, Babylon , Persia, Greece, Rome, the Mongols, the United Kingdom...

We are the most taken advantage of super power in history.

Don't be so naive.

every empire on that list collapsed, and the ones that lasted longest (Rome and Britain) did so precisely because they built alliance systems rather than ruling purely by extraction, which is the lesson you're ignoring in favor of a vibes-based reading of ancient history


Built alliances? The British empire capitulated one of the most powerful empires in history by parking capital ships in Chinese harbors and demanding they buy their opium or else.

Rome contolled the central trade routes of the world and demanded much in return for the pleasure. You either participated in global trade and paid Rome for the pleasure to do so or you stayed in isolation.

You really know nothing of history.

In no other time in history has the world super power bent over backwards so much to make their vassal states happy.

**** them. They know they project literally nothing on the global scale without us.

if that's the case then you know less than nothing

rome is actually the perfect example for my argument. the empire collapsed because it stretched itself across every frontier simultaneously, hollowed out its core, and alienated the federated allies whose troops it depended on to hold the borders. britain's gunboat diplomacy in china produced a century of resentment that ultimately expelled them from asia altogether, which is a strange model to hold up as a success.

the US built something genuinely unprecedented, a voluntary alliance network where the other nations subsidize american force projection with basing, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic cover. calling them vassal states rather than strategic assets is silly. that confuses domination with leverage in a way that every fallen empire would recognize too late.


That was a very small contributing factor in the overall fall of the Roman empire. Rome more or less held it's borders for about a millenia, the major contributing factors are pretty complext but generally can be boiled down to political unrest, separation of classes, incompetence in leadership and inability to control borders mostly because the influx of outisde peoples eventually became more than they could manage and, over a period of a couple of generations, became an internal political force that helped fracture and eventually kill the empire as a whole. A lot of other factors as well.
every factor you just listed accelerated after rome stopped integrating its federated allies as stakeholders and started treating them as disposable instruments.

bringing this back around to NATO, the argument is that empires who neglect their alliance structures weaken from within faster than from without. whether rome's federated allies were a major or minor factor in the collapse, the pattern of imperial overstretch without institutional cohesion is what matters for the NATO analogy.
nortex97
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AG
Quote:

bringing this back around to NATO, the argument is that empires who neglect their alliance structures weaken from within faster than from without. whether rome's federated allies were a major or minor factor in the collapse, the pattern of imperial overstretch without institutional cohesion is what matters for the NATO analogy.

There is no 'American Empire'. And there never should be. The only land we have ever taken in Europe is for the cemeteries of our dead. Our influence is ideally as a valued trading partner, and a protector of commercial trade (as well as our ideals of individual freedom, free speech etc), where we choose to do so (this shouldn't be a global duty we assume).

The idea of 'overstretch' without institutional cohesion as a cause of decline I admit I agree with, though. Democrats and the deep state want both want in unison (a) the institutional destruction of America and our freedoms, and (b) to task America nonetheless with duties to serve the 'rule of law' in 'open societies' in Noem Eisen-speak far and wide, whether it pertains to actual American interests or not.

If the censorship industrial complex itself, and funding, can be managed and run from Europe/Nato, then it can control America, which is the real threat (in addition to China) that we face. VP Vance addressed some of this, this week, re: our supposed 'allies' in Europe/Nato:

Using our own resources to fund/facilitate our decline and defeat is an objective of Nato, and the EU alike. Spain is just forthright about their loyalties (to their credit), but they are broadly shared in Nato leadership.
Old McDonald
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NATO is a military alliance the US dominates. america holds supreme allied commander, provides the bulk of capability, and can veto any collective decision. claiming this structure secretly exists to censor americans and facilitate national decline requires believing the US military establishment is either complicit in its own destruction or too stupid to notice.

and vance flying to budapest to complain alongside orban days before a hungarian election while decrying foreign interference in domestic politics does a better job undermining the argument than anything I could say

nortex97
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Disagree on all points, and notably the original supreme allied commander, President (general) Eisenhower, thought that our troops should be home in 10 years or less, or the organization had failed.

(I've shared my points otherwise as to nato expansionism as a threat to our security many times, but don't want to derail this thread.)
Old McDonald
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eisenhower also spent his presidency deepening the exact forward-basing and alliance infrastructure he supposedly wanted to wind down. the alliance outlasted his 10 year window because every president since, including the ones who complained loudest about burden sharing, looked at the strategic math and kept it going.
bobbranco
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GAC06 said:

Point it out then.

I'm a broken record. You don't understand. I get it. Some people can grasp the concept of what $5.3 billion buys but it is not a war machine.
GAC06
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Run along then
bobbranco
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Admitting that you don't understand is not a failure.
GAC06
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Been patiently waiting for you to make an argument or back up your claim. You won't, so once again stop following me around posting nonsense and cluttering the thread
bobbranco
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GAC06 said:

Been patiently waiting for you to make an argument or back up your claim. You won't, so once again stop following me around posting nonsense and cluttering the thread

Whatever. Not following you around. Good luck.
nortex97
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I've answered this question several times before, but for the sake of others on this page of the thread the Euro's say the actual cost to 'replace' our forces in Europe (ostensibly 'supporting nato') would be over a trillion dollars in a reasonable 25-year analysis.
Quote:

Europe could survive without United States military support but it would take a quarter century to replace the Americans and cost as much as $1 trillion, according to a new report.

A study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies published Thursday found that a hypothetical U.S. withdrawal from Europe would leave the continent's NATO members vulnerable to a Russian threat and faced with "stark choices" on how to fill the immense gaps.

The costs of like-for-like replacement of U.S. equipment and personnel would add up to approximately $1 trillion over 25 years, the study found. That includes one-off procurement costs ranging from $226 billion to $344 billion depending on the quality of the equipment purchased and additional expenses associated with military maintenance, personnel and support.

The most expensive line item on the shopping list would be 400 tactical combat aircraft, followed by 20 destroyers and 24 long-range surface-to-air missiles.

The IISS also estimated that in the event of a large-scale military operation to counter a Russian attack, the cost to replace U.S. personnel (estimated at 128,000 troops) would exceed $12 billion.

The assessment does not include other glaring gaps, the cost of which is harder to quantify. These include command and control, coordination, space, intelligence and surveillance, as well as the cost of nuclear weapons.

So, given their inefficient procurement/training processes, that's really just a top-line estimate, and the total would likely be closer to two trillion dollars, and require close to $200 billion a year to maintain/sustain. Just maintaining our bases in Germany, where parties far and wide including AfD want us out, costs $4 billion a year, and the Germans pay us nothing for that, while reaping economic benefits from our spend there, as well as the protection.

Graciously providing all of this gratis on an open ended basis has to stop.
bobbranco
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For those needing a better understanding.

https://fullfact.org/world/us-nato-contributions/
UTExan
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Also at question is a willingness for Europe to defend itself from Russian invasion. Given that there is resistance to the draft in Germany, that's pretty important, because further funding/supporting an ally which lacks the will to fight for its own survival (Taiwan comes to mind) seems pointless. The Ukrainians are pretty good at this point, but western Europeans are victims of their own prosperity.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
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GAC06
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A trillion expense for them to replace us doesn't mean a trillion in savings for us for leaving. In fact we'd incur expenses moving to new bases.

Europe generally welcomed us because it bolstered the idea that we'd join them if they were attacked. We aren't there for charity. Having our forces there benefits us directly.
Azeew
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Everyone completely misses the fact we can negotiate a new mutual defense treaty with whomever wants, respects and will be an ally.

But first you have to kill the old one to drive home the point the old order is gone.


I don't think it's necessary to "kill" or "pull out" of NATO. But I do believe we stay out of their stray conflicts (Ukraine) as Ukraine is not NATO.

Euro needs to pay for their own security and stop wasting money on social programs. Cut our NATO financial participation to <5% and cut bilateral agreements with those countries that really want to be allies (Poland, Hungary, maybe Germany). Screw Spain, France and Great Britain). They're being swamped with Sharia Law Muslims and are eventually going to become enemies.

We win by giant budget savings with little downside. And out a bullet in the UN. it serves no purpose to us and won't survive if we stop paying for it.
GAC06
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AG
Quote:

giant budget savings


Please show your work
Azeew
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Old McDonald said:

NATO is the only alliance in history where the dominant military power gets 31 countries to organize their entire defense architecture around american leadership, american equipment, american interoperability standards, and american strategic priorities.

leaving surrenders the most favorable strategic arrangement any great power has ever negotiated and hands the board to russia and china for free.


This is false but reasonable logic by an illogical leftist. Most of Europe is already gone as far as we're concerned. Hell, they were buying Russian nat gas while at war with them in Ukraine.

Bilateral agreements are the right answer with those that want to be real allies rather than with a bunch of leftists that are giving away their countries to Sharia Muslims, don't pay for their own security, and don't show up when we ask for help.

Your Jimmy Carter, Neville Chamberlain, Barack Obama namby pamby appeasement policy is predictable and disastrous.
nortex97
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GAC06 said:

A trillion expense for them to replace us doesn't mean a trillion in savings for us for leaving. In fact we'd incur expenses moving to new bases.

Europe generally welcomed us because it bolstered the idea that we'd join them if they were attacked. We aren't there for charity. Having our forces there benefits us directly.

Europe welcomed us generally because we (substantially) conquered Germany twice, and offered to fend off the Soviets afterward. A mission that no longer exists. (Of course, the French summarily kicked us out 20 years later, but anyway).


This doesn't 'make us safe'. If our replacement costs them a trillion or two, it's safe to say we should save at least a significant portion of that. We've faced troop/military relocation costs since the 1700's, John J Pershing's campaigns, Subic Bay, Spanish American war, Okinawa (pending), the list goes on and on. No foreign basing should be permanent, it should exist to face a threat until it is defeated/no longer exists.

And, that would crucially allow us to 'pivot' to China, which nato is utterly useless against.
GAC06
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Quote:

A mission that no longer exists


While no longer the Soviets, Russia is currently invading Europe. They continue to threaten to invade other European countries.

As for the cost of being there, we are already there willingly. It's not necessary to leave NATO to leave Europe. Once again, we are there because it's in our interests to be there.
bobbranco
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We should be active in Europe. Protect our interests and prevent our enemies from encroaching.
Old McDonald
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Azeew said:

Old McDonald said:

NATO is the only alliance in history where the dominant military power gets 31 countries to organize their entire defense architecture around american leadership, american equipment, american interoperability standards, and american strategic priorities.

leaving surrenders the most favorable strategic arrangement any great power has ever negotiated and hands the board to russia and china for free.


This is false but reasonable logic by an illogical leftist. Most of Europe is already gone as far as we're concerned. Hell, they were buying Russian nat gas while at war with them in Ukraine.

Bilateral agreements are the right answer with those that want to be real allies rather than with a bunch of leftists that are giving away their countries to Sharia Muslims, don't pay for their own security, and don't show up when we ask for help.

Your Jimmy Carter, Neville Chamberlain, Barack Obama namby pamby appeasement policy is predictable and disastrous.

europe buying russian gas while backing ukraine was genuinely stupid. but replacing NATO with a patchwork of bilateral deals means negotiating separate basing rights, separate status-of-forces agreements, separate intelligence-sharing protocols, and separate interoperability standards with each country individually, every one of them subject to the same political shifts you're already complaining about, except now there's no institutional framework holding any of it together.

hell, a bilateral-only relationship means the next polish election could unwind your entire eastern european posture overnight with no alliance mechanism to apply pressure. you're proposing to replace a flawed but functioning system with a more expensive, complex, and fragile one over what amounts to emotional grievances.
aggie93
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GAC06 said:

Quote:

A mission that no longer exists


While no longer the Soviets, Russia is currently invading Europe. They continue to threaten to invade other European countries.

As for the cost of being there, we are already there willingly. It's not necessary to leave NATO to leave Europe. Once again, we are there because it's in our interests to be there.

We should cut a deal with Russia that protects our interests and ignores NATO, that's what the French do. Would completely screw China and put Europe in a vice grip. We could have Russia help pressure Iran. Far too much of our thought process is centered around acting like the Cold War is still going and Russia is our enemy while Europe are our true allies. Our enemy is China, Russia has no ability to project power at us and the Pacific is far more of an issue than the Atlantic. Putin is a bad guy who we can't trust but the same could be said for most European leaders if you look at them honestly, they are looking out for their own country.

Letting France undermine everything we do and letting Germany and other Euros trade with Russia when they want is foolish. Putin isn't Stalin, he isn't trying to conquer the world and he couldn't if he wanted to. He wants to build a protective barrier around Russia and he DGAF about playing nice. Unfortunately most Americans can't look at the world objectively and see things in black and white in a very gray world.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

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knoxtom
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The answer to your question is that our former allies would start saying "no" to America.

For a long time America has bought the right to dictate what we and our "allies" to do. We put our bases where we wanted, we told countries what to do. In exchange for footing the bill we got the best deals from our "allies". We got the oil we wanted, we got the trade deals we wanted, if we were pissed at a country the others got in line and joined us. We have done this for 80 years, and now that path is being tossed away.

If we were to drop out of NATO it would immediately dissolve and a European Alliance would take our place. We would not sit at that table, we would no longer have an opinion that anyone listened to. If we aren't paying then they won't care what the bluster in chief says.

From a military perspective, Russia would immediately quit screwing around and would take all of Ukraine. Putin wants it for multiple reasons and one of the primary ones is that the western border of Ukraine/Poland is very defensible and the Eastern border (the current border of Ukraine/Russia) is not. Obviously Putin wants the oil in Donbras, but more importantly, he wants a easily defensible border. Once Ukraine falls, which would be inevitable without NATO, then he would consolidate the Ukrainian oil under his control and develop Ukraine as a new oil nation state. He would also reopen the water to Crimea and develop the black sea fields. Russia would control 30-40% of the worlds oil supply.

Europe would be forced to capitulate to the oil combo of Russia/Ukraine. They could defend themselves but they couldn't ever attack Russia because tanks can't attack over mountains and the new border at the Poland line would be defensible. In other words Europe would be f'ed but it would take 30 years for the eventual collapse.

So what about America... Well we would save whatever we annually put into Nato, which I am sure is a lot. But we would slowly lose all of our bases across Europe, we would lose the King's chair, and we would lose the ability to tell them what to do. Europe would not shut down trade with America or anything drastic, but they would stop doing what we ask and slowly pull away. Europe has no problem giving us the finger and doing their own thing

And China... When America is no longer calling the shots (which again we get to do because we foot the bill) it will become China v Russia. Who cares who wins, they both suck. China will probably go against Russia quickly as it is inevitable Russia will eventually take Europe once they have secured Ukrainian oil. Again, it will take Russia 30 years to consolidate China, but China will know that and know they are at a disadvantage in the long run. China already has passed America with regards to medicine and tech so we will sit in 3rd place.


Once again... it all comes down to Ukraine


Old McDonald
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now this is outside the box thinking, i'll give you that, but it's a flatly bad idea. russia isn't flipping. russia-china trade is at record highs, their military coordination is deeper than any point since the 1950s, and their mutual distrust of washington is baked in. putin isn't walking away from the partnership that kept his economy alive through sanctions because he gets a better offer from trump. you'd be trading 31 nations with real economies and interoperable militaries for a handshake with a declining petrostate that invaded its neighbor twice in ten years.

also, "putin just wants a buffer zone" is what people said before crimea, and then again before the full invasion. your "gray world realism" would have you cut a deal with the one major power that has most recently and most clearly demonstrated it doesn't honor them.
aggie93
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Old McDonald said:

now this is outside the box thinking, i'll give you that, but it's a flatly bad idea. russia isn't flipping. russia-china trade is at record highs, their military coordination is deeper than any point since the 1950s, and their mutual distrust of washington is baked in. putin isn't walking away from the partnership that kept his economy alive through sanctions because he gets a better offer from trump. you'd be trading 31 nations with real economies and interoperable militaries for a handshake with a declining petrostate that invaded its neighbor twice in ten years.

also, "putin just wants a buffer zone" is what people said before crimea, and then again before the full invasion. your "gray world realism" would have you cut a deal with the one major power that has most recently and most clearly demonstrated it doesn't honor them.

Crimea is Russian. They built Sevastapol under Catherine the Great and most of the people there are Russian. More importantly Russia can be invaded from about 10 directions (and has been) so they want to have a buffer. My point is Russia is not like the USSR where they were looking to make the world communist. They want to be a regional power not a global one. Their GDP is smaller than Texas and they have very limited options.

Russia will still trade with China, can't stop that. Though eventually they will get back to fighting over Manchuria and the Chinese need the water in Lake Baikal among many other issues. Any agreement that brings us closer to Russia impacts China and Europe significantly though and they are terrified of that as they should be.

Even the threat is enough. Let's see what the Europeans do if we meet with Putin and ask him what he would give us in return for removing bases from NATO countries. That's how you play hardball and use leverage. That's just one example.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

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YouBet
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The bottom line is that if Europe is not wiling to devote the resources to defend against their supposed arch enemy in Russia, then why should we? If Russia is really the bad guy, then step up to the plate and be accountable otherwise they are just using us as pawns to fight their battles while they continue their social welfare states.

And Europe has already capitulated to Russia on energy. Nothing new there.
YouBet
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I also think we keep trying to apply 20th century paradigms to current day geopolitics that are wholly different with the headwinds of de-population, massive government debt, and large scale immigration that is proving to be catastrophic to individual cultures.
Old McDonald
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crimea's russian-speaking population doesn't make it russian sovereign territory any more than miami's cuban population makes it havana's, but that's a separate debate.

threatening to meet with putin and offer to pull bases from NATO countries only works as leverage if the europeans believe you'd actually follow through, and if you actually follow through you lose those strategic assets. you're describing a bluff that only has value if you never execute it, which means the alliance you're threatening to destroy is the thing generating the leverage in the first place.

banking on a future russia-china split over manchuria and lake baikal is speculating about a conflict that doesn't exist yet to justify abandoning an alliance that does.
AlaskanAg99
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Our "allies" are the dumbest people period.

Both supporting the nation that poses the largest threat and begging for support to defend against them WHILE also refusing to build/fund their own defensive capability and treating the US as some sort entitlement.

Thats why we should tear up NATO.
aTm '99
OPAG
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Pull out of Nato, and craft a NATO like agreement with Poland and Hungry. End result . profit and still have presence in Europe.

Both of these countries and other Eastern blocs would go for this big time. They know the communist way and they refuse the Islamic invasion the EU is looking to force them to take.
aggie93
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Old McDonald said:

crimea's russian-speaking population doesn't make it russian sovereign territory any more than miami's cuban population makes it havana's, but that's a separate debate.

threatening to meet with putin and offer to pull bases from NATO countries only works as leverage if the europeans believe you'd actually follow through, and if you actually follow through you lose those strategic assets. you're describing a bluff that only has value if you never execute it, which means the alliance you're threatening to destroy is the thing generating the leverage in the first place.

banking on a future russia-china split over manchuria and lake baikal is speculating about a conflict that doesn't exist yet to justify abandoning an alliance that does.

The argument was about buffer not right or wrong and Russia has at least as strong of a claim to Crimea as Ukraine for that matter. Strategically it's like Florida to the US and they want to control it. Look at a map.

We may pull out most of our bases from Europe anyway as they really don't do much for us except help protect Europe because of Russia. Take Russia out of the equation and we don't need to be there. Russia couldn't get past Poland even if they wanted to anyway. The map has changed but most don't see it. We could leave and move our bases elsewhere to protect our interests but having 11 Carriers gives us a hell of an advantage. Not like we want to be enemies with Europe either just not get used. They need us more than we need them. Leverage.

Russia and China are at best a tense alliance as they hate each other. China loathes Russia and doesn't sees them as barbarians. Russia has zero trust in China.

See the big picture.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
nortex97
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A lot of our 'nato allies' are presently supporting Iran chairing a women's rights UN body.

We need as little to do with nato as possible.
YouBet
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Our "allies" are the dumbest people period.

Both supporting the nation that poses the largest threat and begging for support to defend against them WHILE also refusing to build/fund their own defensive capability and treating the US as some sort entitlement.

Thats why we should tear up NATO.


Pretty much sums it up on principle.
YouBet
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aggie93 said:

Old McDonald said:

crimea's russian-speaking population doesn't make it russian sovereign territory any more than miami's cuban population makes it havana's, but that's a separate debate.

threatening to meet with putin and offer to pull bases from NATO countries only works as leverage if the europeans believe you'd actually follow through, and if you actually follow through you lose those strategic assets. you're describing a bluff that only has value if you never execute it, which means the alliance you're threatening to destroy is the thing generating the leverage in the first place.

banking on a future russia-china split over manchuria and lake baikal is speculating about a conflict that doesn't exist yet to justify abandoning an alliance that does.

The argument was about buffer not right or wrong and Russia has at least as strong of a claim to Crimea as Ukraine for that matter. Strategically it's like Florida to the US and they want to control it. Look at a map.

We may pull out most of our bases from Europe anyway as they really don't do much for us except help protect Europe because of Russia. Take Russia out of the equation and we don't need to be there. Russia couldn't get past Poland even if they wanted to anyway. The map has changed but most don't see it. We could leave and move our bases elsewhere to protect our interests but having 11 Carriers gives us a hell of an advantage. Not like we want to be enemies with Europe either just not get used. They need us more than we need them. Leverage.

Russia and China are at best a tense alliance as they hate each other. China loathes Russia and doesn't sees them as barbarians. Russia has zero trust in China.

See the big picture.


Alluded to this earlier but if you end up pursuing Trump's ideas he's floated where we reallocate and optimize bases more to Eastern European countries and away from Western European countries you are actually creating a greater deterrence against Russia invading Europe because you are forward deploying your assets to the countries on the front line. We could save some money and improve our alignment in Europe. This would be a win-win for all since Western Europe has chosen cultural and societal suicide and do not want us there anyway.
Ag with kids
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Old McDonald said:

the spending complaint was legitimate for decades, but has since been addressed which weakens the urgency of the argument.

the bits about free speech and tech companies and leftism are just vibes and ultimately immaterial to a defense alliance. the US has defense partnerships with saudi arabia, which beheads people for sorcery, with egypt, who holds sham elections as a matter of routine, with turkey which jails journalist at industrial scale, and nobody in the american right orbit argues these partnership should be dissolved because of shared value deficits.

regarding Iran, NATO is working as intended. european allies are signaling that this particular war lacks legitimacy, which is what sovereign allies in a defensive alliance are supposed to do when they think you're wrong. NATO is a mutual defense pact, it's not a blank check for wars of choice.

The spending complaint was only changed by 2 things...Trump basically ****ting on NATO and threatening to leave, which got the 80% solution and then Russia invading Ukraine...however, they were still being sluggish until Trump was re-elected. I'd say Trump is responsible for about 90% of their increased spending on NATO...

BTW, one of my biggest arguments for staying in NATO has always been our agreements to have forward operating bases in Europe, which can help us when dealing with all sorts of problems that are occurring in that hemisphere of the world. I have long been a huge proponent of NATO.

However, the recent denial of airspace and basing rights during this war has seriously made me question the alliance.

I don't propose we leave right now (although I'm less adamant about staying than I used to be). However, I think we need to reconsider our basing options and close bases in a few countries that are less hospitable, and move them to more hospitable countries...

That keeps the forward operating bases in the area, albeit in different areas...

If it negatively affects the countries we leave, so be it...
 
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