Something something about inflation being transitory

Good grief. The Land of Delulu has let loose the loons

aggiehawg said:

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91_Aggie said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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lol. A monthly number based very obviously on one single volatile commodity that will rapidy drop again once full supply is restored. Nothing to freak out over.

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So, a single month huge jump that still doesn't actually have anything other than fuel price baked in plus surveys showing consumer sentiment at lowest level ever.

Yeah, nothing to freak out over. I'm sure Trump will have that Strait of Hormuz reopened in no time since Iran already fully capitulated and Trump brokered that great ceasefire that opened it two days ago.

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Bet you sell stock on every single market dip, don't you. One either has a short term view (NEEED instant gratification) or a longer term view (patience.)

At least Trump is not so stupid to enact windfall profit taxes in a knee jerk reaction to a supply issue like Carter did.

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Why are you attacking me? Make an argument without the attacks please. Or bringing up whataboutisms from, let me check my watch, 48 years ago

91_Aggie said:

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aggiehawg said:

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91_Aggie said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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lol. A monthly number based very obviously on one single volatile commodity that will rapidy drop again once full supply is restored. Nothing to freak out over.

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So, a single month huge jump that still doesn't actually have anything other than fuel price baked in plus surveys showing consumer sentiment at lowest level ever.

Yeah, nothing to freak out over. I'm sure Trump will have that Strait of Hormuz reopened in no time since Iran already fully capitulated and Trump brokered that great ceasefire that opened it two days ago.

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Bet you sell stock on every single market dip, don't you. One either has a short term view (NEEED instant gratification) or a longer term view (patience.)

At least Trump is not so stupid to enact windfall profit taxes in a knee jerk reaction to a supply issue like Carter did.

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Why are you attacking me? Make an argument without the attacks please. Or bringing up whataboutisms from, let me check my watch, 48 years ago

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He can't. That's why.

91_Aggie said:

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aggiehawg said:

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91_Aggie said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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lol. A monthly number based very obviously on one single volatile commodity that will rapidy drop again once full supply is restored. Nothing to freak out over.

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So, a single month huge jump that still doesn't actually have anything other than fuel price baked in plus surveys showing consumer sentiment at lowest level ever.

Yeah, nothing to freak out over. I'm sure Trump will have that Strait of Hormuz reopened in no time since Iran already fully capitulated and Trump brokered that great ceasefire that opened it two days ago.

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Bet you sell stock on every single market dip, don't you. One either has a short term view (NEEED instant gratification) or a longer term view (patience.)

At least Trump is not so stupid to enact windfall profit taxes in a knee jerk reaction to a supply issue like Carter did.

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Why are you attacking me? Make an argument without the attacks please. Or bringing up whataboutisms from, let me check my watch, 48 years ago

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Apologize as I didn't intend it as a personal attack more than an observation that sweating temporary smaller stuff is just counterproductive from my experience. I'm old. I have seen lot of oil shocks since Dad was in the Big Oil industry. And I was a teen in the early 70s, living up North at the time. (Yes. I was hated in junior high because of that.)

But there is also a down market effect that could affect China more...plastics. Their consumer temu crap that sells worldwide. (Using temu as only an example of Chinese cheap crap.)

Pacifico said:

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91_Aggie said:

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aggiehawg said:

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91_Aggie said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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lol. A monthly number based very obviously on one single volatile commodity that will rapidy drop again once full supply is restored. Nothing to freak out over.

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So, a single month huge jump that still doesn't actually have anything other than fuel price baked in plus surveys showing consumer sentiment at lowest level ever.

Yeah, nothing to freak out over. I'm sure Trump will have that Strait of Hormuz reopened in no time since Iran already fully capitulated and Trump brokered that great ceasefire that opened it two days ago.

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Bet you sell stock on every single market dip, don't you. One either has a short term view (NEEED instant gratification) or a longer term view (patience.)

At least Trump is not so stupid to enact windfall profit taxes in a knee jerk reaction to a supply issue like Carter did.

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Why are you attacking me? Make an argument without the attacks please. Or bringing up whataboutisms from, let me check my watch, 48 years ago

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He can't. That's why.

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Dear, after this many years if you still believe a self described "Grand Ol' Dame" is a man? Maybe this is not the forum for you.

I just want to point out that inflation under Biden was largely due to:
#1 massive increase in spending on the back side of COVID partially supported by stimulus during COVID (which I largely still think was worth it) by both the Trump administration and the Biden administration.
#2 Russia's invasion of Ukraine causing a massive supply shock across fuels and agriculture.

Despite this, inflation in America was generally lower than comparable economies globally.

Donald Trumps rise in inflation is driven by HIS policies:
#1 tariffs
#2 the war with Iran where Iran STILL controls the Strait.

So with that context, Trump's inflation is worse because it was due to policy failures. Biden's inflation, while bad was driven by external circumstances.

Consumer sentiment, according to the U Michigan outfit that has been tracking it since 1952 just reported that it just hit its lowest level since…1952.

People usually dial back their spending…a lot when this happens. But maybe they won't this time and maybe all the businesses that depend on people feeling comfortable spending will be just fine.

Good Lord,

2 things can be true at the same ****ing time:

- This inflation report is bad, but not as bad as some in the past. Biden, like China, is asshoe.
- Anything that raises prices on the majority of people, who are center left/right, and getting hammered with other higher costs like healthcare (due to govt), regulations (due to govt), etc (due to govt) won't take kindly to even a smidgen of perceived/actual price increases due to....you guessed it....govt again.

If you think oil prices are going to stay high of go hogher, go long on some futures and see how that works out for you.

This inflation report isn't much different than prior ones, in that core-CPI -- which excludes volatile energy and food costs -- is very similar to recent months at 2.6%. It has oscillated in a narrow range of upper 2's for quite a while. No big deal... but hold that thought.

All-in CPI moved up north of 3% because of the cost of higher gas. No surprise due to the war, but increasingly painful for low-income consumers.

The big news isn't this CPI report, but what will show in the coming months. Beyond gasoline for your vehicle, the cost of anything else petro-related has skyrocketed lately. Fertilizer. Chemicals. Plastics. Etc. All of those price increases will be reflected in core CPI in a few months and won't come down overnight, even if gas prices improve faster.

The timing won't play well for R's in the upcoming midterms.

I generally support the ongoing effort to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons, and also setting back their military capability to harm others. That's a very evil regime that needed to be confronted. But it will bring economic and political consequences. Sometimes, that's just the cost of leadership and doing the right thing at the right time.

aggiehawg said:

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Pacifico said:

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91_Aggie said:

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aggiehawg said:

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91_Aggie said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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lol. A monthly number based very obviously on one single volatile commodity that will rapidy drop again once full supply is restored. Nothing to freak out over.

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So, a single month huge jump that still doesn't actually have anything other than fuel price baked in plus surveys showing consumer sentiment at lowest level ever.

Yeah, nothing to freak out over. I'm sure Trump will have that Strait of Hormuz reopened in no time since Iran already fully capitulated and Trump brokered that great ceasefire that opened it two days ago.

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Bet you sell stock on every single market dip, don't you. One either has a short term view (NEEED instant gratification) or a longer term view (patience.)

At least Trump is not so stupid to enact windfall profit taxes in a knee jerk reaction to a supply issue like Carter did.

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Why are you attacking me? Make an argument without the attacks please. Or bringing up whataboutisms from, let me check my watch, 48 years ago

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He can't. That's why.

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Dear, after this many years if you still believe a self described "Grand Ol' Dame" is a man? Maybe this is not the forum for you.

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OK. Whatever the hell that means.

Damn, 3.3% inflation this month under Trump! If inflation triples it will get up to Biden's highest inflation rate of 9.1%!

Pacifico said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Pacifico said:

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91_Aggie said:

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aggiehawg said:

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91_Aggie said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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lol. A monthly number based very obviously on one single volatile commodity that will rapidy drop again once full supply is restored. Nothing to freak out over.

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So, a single month huge jump that still doesn't actually have anything other than fuel price baked in plus surveys showing consumer sentiment at lowest level ever.

Yeah, nothing to freak out over. I'm sure Trump will have that Strait of Hormuz reopened in no time since Iran already fully capitulated and Trump brokered that great ceasefire that opened it two days ago.

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Bet you sell stock on every single market dip, don't you. One either has a short term view (NEEED instant gratification) or a longer term view (patience.)

At least Trump is not so stupid to enact windfall profit taxes in a knee jerk reaction to a supply issue like Carter did.

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Why are you attacking me? Make an argument without the attacks please. Or bringing up whataboutisms from, let me check my watch, 48 years ago

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He can't. That's why.

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Dear, after this many years if you still believe a self described "Grand Ol' Dame" is a man? Maybe this is not the forum for you.

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OK. Whatever the hell that means.

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Okay, let me type this slowly for you, Bless your heart.

I am an Southern Dame. Meaning I have my Lady Bits intact. Menopause means not all still function but still there.

HTH.

91_Aggie said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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lol. A monthly number based very obviously on one single volatile commodity that will rapidy drop again once full supply is restored. Nothing to freak out over.

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So, a single month huge jump that still doesn't actually have anything other than fuel price baked in plus surveys showing consumer sentiment at lowest level ever.

Yeah, nothing to freak out over. I'm sure Trump will have that Strait of Hormuz reopened in no time since Iran already fully capitulated and Trump brokered that great ceasefire that opened it two days ago.

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Great leaders take a longer term strategic view that goes beyond elections and benefits the country in perpetuity .
Then there are clowns that do nonsensical things like " forgive" student loan debt because they impresses stupid, low information voters.
We have a chance to reshape the Middle East. An Iran that is not inimical to the US , or is perhaps even friendly completely changes the world economy and isolates China. Quit acting like the straits will be closed forever.

It could absolutely go sideways and devastate the world economy. You can celebrate gleefully then. The rest of the mature, nonTFS world is patiently waiting to see how this high stakes strategic move works out .

deddog said:

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91_Aggie said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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lol. A monthly number based very obviously on one single volatile commodity that will rapidy drop again once full supply is restored. Nothing to freak out over.

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So, a single month huge jump that still doesn't actually have anything other than fuel price baked in plus surveys showing consumer sentiment at lowest level ever.

Yeah, nothing to freak out over. I'm sure Trump will have that Strait of Hormuz reopened in no time since Iran already fully capitulated and Trump brokered that great ceasefire that opened it two days ago.

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Great leaders take a longer term strategic view that goes beyond elections and benefits the country in perpetuity .
Then there are clowns that do nonsensical things like " forgive" student loan debt because they impresses stupid, low information voters.
We have a chance to reshape the Middle East. An Iran that is not inimical to the US , or is perhaps even friendly completely changes the world economy and isolates China. Quit acting like the straits will be closed forever.

It could absolutely go sideways and devastate the world economy. You can celebrate gleefully then. The rest of the mature, nonTFS world is patiently waiting to see how this high stakes strategic move works out .

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Reeee3333EEEEEeeeEE33!!!


Now you sound like FTC! Always picking on El TrumpBo!

MouthBQ98 said:

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If you think oil prices are going to stay high of go hogher, go long on some futures and see how that works out for you.

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Yep. Folks should put their money where their mouths are.

They won't, because if they have half a brain in their head they know the truth. We don't have a production problem, we don't have a supply problem, and we don't have a demand problem.

We have a logistics problem. And those are ALWAYS temporary.

There are some pretty major geopolitical events happening that likely put a big squeeze on China's access to Venezuelan and Iranian production and ultimately make the world safer. Temporary spikes from the straight of Hormuz access driving prices up seems to really worry the same people that were just fine with devaluing our currency deliberately with trillions in spending for things like climate bills from the party that wants to end fossil fuels. I guess inflation is only ok when it's from making the printers go brrrr and not ok now.

Gordo14 said:

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I just want to point out that inflation under Biden was largely due to:
#1 massive increase in spending on the back side of COVID partially supported by stimulus during COVID (which I largely still think was worth it) by both the Trump administration and the Biden administration.
#2 Russia's invasion of Ukraine causing a massive supply shock across fuels and agriculture.

Despite this, inflation in America was generally lower than comparable economies globally.

Donald Trumps rise in inflation is driven by HIS policies:
#1 tariffs
#2 the war with Iran where Iran STILL controls the Strait.

So with that context, Trump's inflation is worse because it was due to policy failures. Biden's inflation, while bad was driven by external circumstances.

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this is the honest assessment, though in all fairness the ARP biden signed was a bigger contributor to inflation than the CARES act or the december 2020 omnibus bill.

that said, the "but biden" posts are mostly just unserious cope from people who were duped into thinking trump would make things better. biden's not president anymore. trump got elected first and foremost on the issue of affordability and has done everything in his ability to make things worse, not better, and chastises anyone who calls this out.

Inflation higher than when sleepy Joe left office.

More tariffs and military conflicts will fix it.

Biden really sky rocketed inflation. We all know this. Unfortunately, Trump has not really done anything to correct it and in fact has instituted policies to make it worse. It is what it is unfortunately

….for a whole month…

Trump said inflation would be zero if elected. Just holding him to his campaign promises. Add this to the broken promises of releasing the Epstein files and no new wars

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Biden really sky rocketed inflation. We all know this. Unfortunately, Trump has not really done anything to correct it and in fact has instituted policies to make it worse. It is what it is unfortunately

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Actually no one thinks this.

Biden could have done more to quell inflation, sure.

Most all economic ex-post conclusions lay the blame at historically unheard of outside the Great Depression fiscal stimulus enacted by both Dems and Pubs in Congress and signed into law by President Trump - Cares Act, PPP, Federal Student Loan Pause, Eviction controls, etc. - taking place at a time of limited supply constrained by COVID public safety measures. The Federal Reserve maintaining a zero Fed Funds rate was also a huge contributor.

Trying to blame Biden is just partisanship. Saying Trump and Congress were wrong is also just Monday morning QBing given what they were being told at the time.

The Fed was also a few quarters late in tightening money supply, but even that was not a controversial stance at the time.

Inflation was largely a 12 month affair -finally bubbling up in 2021 and then rolling over sharply in 2022. Inflation lead times are usually estimated at 12-18 months.

91_Aggie said:

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when Trump took over Inflation was at 3.1%.
It's higher now.

Here are direct quotes from Trump's campaign promises:
"Starting on Day 1, we will end inflation and make America affordable again."
"When I win, I will immediately bring prices down."
"Prices will come down… they'll come down fast."
"A vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper."
"Inflation will vanish completely."
"We will end the inflation nightmare."
His biggest lever to lower inflation were these promises:
"We will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months."
"We're going to get your energy prices down… by 50%."

By way of comparison, here are the inflation rates in the last 6 months of Biden's term
July 2.9%
August 2.5%
September 2.4%
October 2.6%
November 2.7%
December 2.9%

In Feb, 2026 it was at 2.4%
but now it's higher than what Biden left him.

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Here is the historical inflation data...


[url=https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/][/url]Inflation was at 3.0% Jan 2025. It was lower than that every month prior to Mar 2025 (except for Sept 2025 when it was 3.0%).

Mar 2025 is at 3.3%, with 75% of the inflation being due to the war in Iran.

Unfortunately, all of that extra high inflation from the first 2 years of the Biden administration is baked in. We're not going to get deflation (which is a REALLY good thing) and go back to the 2020 baseline prices.

….but Trump just devalued our currency and caused inflation like Biden did!

I honestly thought this map was made up

Hundreds of supertankers, the kind that carry two million barrels each, are currently racing toward the US Gulf Coast from every direction. Atlantic, Indian Ocean, around Africa, the scenic route, the "we were heading to Saudi Arabia but… pic.twitter.com/hcWgTi2eti

— Jesús Enrique Rosas - The Body Language Guy (@Knesix) April 11, 2026

I honestly thought this map was made up

Hundreds of supertankers, the kind that carry two million barrels each, are currently racing toward the US Gulf Coast from every direction. Atlantic, Indian Ocean, around Africa, the scenic route, the "we were heading to Saudi Arabia but NVM" route.

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and everyone panicked. Oil hit $126 a barrel. Gas hit $4 a gallon. Cable news did the thing where they put a red banner on screen and say "CRISIS" in a font that suggests you should be hoarding toilet paper.

And then something happened that nobody in media seems interested in reporting, for obvious reasons. The world just... switched suppliers? Like changing your internet provider except the internet provider is the entire effing global energy economy.

American oil exports are approaching record levels. Gulf Coast refineries are running at 95% capacity. Supertankers that were mid-ocean on their way to the Persian Gulf literally turned around and headed to Texas. That's not a metaphor. Ship tracking data shows them doing U-turns in the Indian Ocean.

Meanwhile China, which was getting 45% of its oil imports through Hormuz and paying basement prices for sanctioned Iranian crude, is now competing with Japan and Europe for the same expensive American barrels. Chinese manufacturers are already raising prices 20% on goods headed to the US.

So to summarize: Iran played its biggest card and the main result is that the United States became the world's emergency gas station and China's cheap energy subsidy evaporated.

This is either the most elaborate coincidence in the history of geopolitics... or someone planned the sequence Venezuela -> Iran -> profits!

I'll let you figure out which one

Windy City Ag said:

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Biden really sky rocketed inflation. We all know this. Unfortunately, Trump has not really done anything to correct it and in fact has instituted policies to make it worse. It is what it is unfortunately

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Actually no one thinks this.

Biden could have done more to quell inflation, sure.

Most all economic ex-post conclusions lay the blame at historically unheard of outside the Great Depression fiscal stimulus enacted by both Dems and Pubs in Congress and signed into law by President Trump - Cares Act, PPP, Federal Student Loan Pause, Eviction controls, etc. - taking place at a time of limited supply constrained by COVID public safety measures. The Federal Reserve maintaining a zero Fed Funds rate was also a huge contributor.

Trying to blame Biden is just partisanship. Saying Trump and Congress were wrong is also just Monday morning QBing given what they were being told at the time.

The Fed was also a few quarters late in tightening money supply, but even that was not a controversial stance at the time.

Inflation was largely a 12 month affair -finally bubbling up in 2021 and then rolling over sharply in 2022. Inflation lead times are usually estimated at 12-18 months.

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"Trying to blame Biden is just partisanship."

LOL So uniformed. Biden promoted and passed the American Rescue Plan of 2021 which was disastrous and unnecessary. Economically educated people said at the time that it would create inflation.

There were two kind of people that wanted/promoted it:
1. Economically ignorant, or
2. Purposeful nation wreckers that saw it as a political opportunity to fraudulently distribute money to their friends AND further wreck the balance sheet of the country.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, as most liberal voters are just sheep (not nefarious), and assume you're just economically ignorant.

He has a few more .months to get this down, if its still rising in July, midterms will be a bloodbath.

Your also failing to mention what Trump has tried and what the Democrats have denied him… has been great…. No… but good lord every politician makes promises.

Joe Deertay said:

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Your also failing to mention what Trump has tried and what the Democrats have denied him… has been great…. No… but good lord every politician makes promises.

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That's tough to parse, but I would remind that republicans control all 3 branches of government. Anything that is failing is completely on Trump and Republicans

Never seen so much homering and goal tending in one thread. Multiple things can be true at one time:

• Inflation is lower on average for the whole term under Trump than for Biden
  
• Inflation is not zero or negative like Trump idiotically promised.
  
• Biden and team passed large inflationary tax and spend packages.
  
• Trump signed a likely inflationary tax and spend bill in 2025 that has not had a chance to make it into CPI or PPI numbers yet.
  
• Military action in Iran has likely caused increases to transportation prices that will be seen in future inflation numbers, but the permanence is still yet to be determined.

I like how when anyone critisizes trump they go to the "well he isnt as bad as one of the worst presidents weve ever had so theres that"

Old McDonald said:

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Gordo14 said:

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I just want to point out that inflation under Biden was largely due to:
#1 massive increase in spending on the back side of COVID partially supported by stimulus during COVID (which I largely still think was worth it) by both the Trump administration and the Biden administration.
#2 Russia's invasion of Ukraine causing a massive supply shock across fuels and agriculture.

Despite this, inflation in America was generally lower than comparable economies globally.

Donald Trumps rise in inflation is driven by HIS policies:
#1 tariffs
#2 the war with Iran where Iran STILL controls the Strait.

So with that context, Trump's inflation is worse because it was due to policy failures. Biden's inflation, while bad was driven by external circumstances.

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this is the honest assessment, though in all fairness the ARP biden signed was a bigger contributor to inflation than the CARES act or the december 2020 omnibus bill.

that said, the "but biden" posts are mostly just unserious cope from people who were duped into thinking trump would make things better. biden's not president anymore. trump got elected first and foremost on the issue of affordability and has done everything in his ability to make things worse, not better, and chastises anyone who calls this out.

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That is 1984 propaganda. Good lord. It's incredible what Democrats will say and do to cover for their side. I'm not going to cover for Trump because he hasn't helped much here as he and the Republican Party have made it their policy that they are not going to cut spending; they are going to just spend differently.

But Biden's ARP (increased inflation) and his Inflation Reduction Act (neutral at best) are literal policies that made inflation worse or didn't help as labeled and are obviously not "external circumstances." You at least called out ARP for what it did while Gordo is just straight lying.

Pinochet said:

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Never seen so much homering and goal tending in one thread. Multiple things can be true at one time:

• Inflation is lower on average for the whole term under Trump than for Biden
  
• Inflation is not zero or negative like Trump idiotically promised.
  
• Biden and team passed large inflationary tax and spend packages.
  
• Trump signed a likely inflationary tax and spend bill in 2025 that has not had a chance to make it into CPI or PPI numbers yet.
  
• Military action in Iran has likely caused increases to transportation prices that will be seen in future inflation numbers, but the permanence is still yet to be determined.

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True.