LMCane said:
great analysis here.
all that needs to happen is the deep South states to @#$#@ do their job and set correct district maps not based on race.
just as ALL OF NEW ENGLAND has not one Republican House district- so for the South.
DO IT
Florida (4), Georgia (2), Louisiana (2), Tennessee (1), Kentucky (1), Mississippi (1), Utah (1) South Carolina (1)
That is 13 on race based flips. Nebraska (1), Kansas (1) and India (2) could redraw as well by 2028. Which would make it 17 flips by 2028 election
Idk if NC and Texas could add more on race based districts or not, they may be maxed out.
You have to consider NC, Kentucky, and Kansas have Dem governors which could get in the way. Also Georgia could have a Dem Governor by 2028 as well, Dem black woman running in this election is ahead in polls right now
Also Dem states are not maxed out, Washington, New York, Minnesota, Maine, Illinois, California and Virginia could all gerrymander more and add up to 12 seats in the DEM column.
After the census in 2030 you could see red states add more seats and Dem states lose seats due to population shift. IDK if this will be as significant as some believe, California, New York, Illinois, Colorado and Minnesota added a lot of illegals which could balance there American citizen losses.
After 2030 I can see the Rs coming out with +10~20 adds everything above considered
If Rs win the house in 2026, they will have the house for another 6 to 8 years
Sorry for the long post