GOP could have durable Congress majority in 2030s...

1,513 Views | 16 Replies | Last: 11 days ago by LMCane
LMCane
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great analysis here.

all that needs to happen is the deep South states to @#$#@ do their job and set correct district maps not based on race.

just as ALL OF NEW ENGLAND has not one Republican House district- so for the South.

DO IT

nortex97
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AG
To have a durable majority, obvious fraud such as the 'voters' in NY below needs to be eliminated, in all states.

Redistricting is just phase 1 (hopefully), then this (fraud), then the new census/re-apportionment.
ts5641
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nortex97 said:

To have a durable majority, obvious fraud such as the 'voters' in NY below needs to be eliminated, in all states.

Redistricting is just phase 1 (hopefully), then this (fraud), then the new census/re-apportionment.

Cheating mother ****ers! We're two teams playing with completely different rules to the game.
LMCane
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the amazing thing is that some New England states have 46% Republicans and ZERO members of the House from the GOP.

coincidentally, the media never mentions this fact.

COINCIDENCE!!
Logos Stick
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kill the filibuster and pass the SAVE act!
BusterAg
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AG
Some GOP congresspeople live in districts where they will forever be the incumbent, no matter how bad the party is the year they come up for election. They are going to have a financial incentive to fight this, and trot out the "this is risky" line, because we are going to put some of their red voters in districts that are purple, and they will hate that.

Others in the party don't like it when the GOP is in charge, because GOP voters want to squash the corruption in DC. These MFers make a ton of money due to all the corruption in DC. The last thing they want is to have the power to reduce that corruption.

Anyone that argues for a soft stance on redistricting is perfectly fine with the status quo, where the politicians in DC spend a crap ton of money so that the can capture some percentage of it in grift or outright fraud, and then tax the crap out of the country to pay for it with higher tax rates in printing more money, which results in the insidious tax of inflation.

Don't listen to any of them. They should be told to sit down, shut up, and vote for the interests of their constituents, or we will replace them with someone who will.

My response to these people: Don't be a little girly cat. It's time to play as a team to win. Get on board, or get out of the way.
LMCane
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BusterAg said:

Some GOP congresspeople live in districts where they will forever be the incumbent, no matter how bad the party is the year they come up for election. They are going to have a financial incentive to fight this, and trot out the "this is risky" line, because we are going to put some of their red voters in districts that are purple, and they will hate that.

Others in the party don't like it when the GOP is in charge, because GOP voters want to squash the corruption in DC. These MFers make a ton of money due to all the corruption in DC. The last thing they want is to have the power to reduce that corruption.

Anyone that argues for a soft stance on redistricting is perfectly fine with the status quo, where the politicians in DC spend a crap ton of money so that the can capture some percentage of it in grift or outright fraud, and then tax the crap out of the country to pay for it with higher tax rates in printing more money, which results in the insidious tax of inflation.

Don't listen to any of them. They should be told to sit down, shut up, and vote for the interests of their constituents, or we will replace them with someone who will.

My response to these people: Don't be a little girly cat. It's time to play as a team to win. Get on board, or get out of the way.


Great points!

example A: Mike Pence's Indiana!!
Old Sarge
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AG
Logos Stick said:

kill the filibuster and pass the SAVE act!


If we had a durable majority, Cornyn and Thune would do everything in their power to submarine the SAVE Act. They are compromised and in bed with the DemocRATS.
"Green" is the new RED.
fc2112
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LMCane said:

the amazing thing is that some New England states have 46% Republicans and ZERO members of the House from the GOP.

coincidentally, the media never mentions this fact.

COINCIDENCE!!

Sec. 2 of the VRA caused this. You could always gerrymander for partisan reasons. But as soon as a southern state gerrymandered a heavily Dem and black district out of existence, the courts stepped in and disallowed it due to the VRA.

Now, Texas and other southern states won't have the courts demanding certain numbers of minority districts, which would be, of course, heavily Dem.

In short, the VRA assured Democratic districts in heavily Republican states but not vice versa.
2026NCAggies
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LMCane said:

great analysis here.

all that needs to happen is the deep South states to @#$#@ do their job and set correct district maps not based on race.

just as ALL OF NEW ENGLAND has not one Republican House district- so for the South.

DO IT



Florida (4), Georgia (2), Louisiana (2), Tennessee (1), Kentucky (1), Mississippi (1), Utah (1) South Carolina (1)

That is 13 on race based flips. Nebraska (1), Kansas (1) and India (2) could redraw as well by 2028. Which would make it 17 flips by 2028 election

Idk if NC and Texas could add more on race based districts or not, they may be maxed out.

You have to consider NC, Kentucky, and Kansas have Dem governors which could get in the way. Also Georgia could have a Dem Governor by 2028 as well, Dem black woman running in this election is ahead in polls right now

Also Dem states are not maxed out, Washington, New York, Minnesota, Maine, Illinois, California and Virginia could all gerrymander more and add up to 12 seats in the DEM column.

After the census in 2030 you could see red states add more seats and Dem states lose seats due to population shift. IDK if this will be as significant as some believe, California, New York, Illinois, Colorado and Minnesota added a lot of illegals which could balance there American citizen losses.

After 2030 I can see the Rs coming out with +10~20 adds everything above considered

If Rs win the house in 2026, they will have the house for another 6 to 8 years

Sorry for the long post

BusterAg
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AG
fc2112 said:

LMCane said:

the amazing thing is that some New England states have 46% Republicans and ZERO members of the House from the GOP.

coincidentally, the media never mentions this fact.

COINCIDENCE!!

Sec. 2 of the VRA caused this. You could always gerrymander for partisan reasons. But as soon as a southern state gerrymandered a heavily Dem and black district out of existence, the courts stepped in and disallowed it due to the VRA.

Now, Texas and other southern states won't have the courts demanding certain numbers of minority districts, which would be, of course, heavily Dem.

In short, the VRA assured Democratic districts in heavily Republican states but not vice versa.



Yeah, the most important part of your post is the past tense of that highlighted verb.
2026NCAggies
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Logos Stick said:

kill the filibuster and pass the SAVE act!

You will not get this passed right now, 4 Rs are blocking it, we are at 49 votes. Now if Rs hold the house, and Rs win senate with 52, you might be able to pass it by the 2028 election

You might say how is that if Senate loses 2 seat. At 52, Tillis and Collins will be gone, which would only leave two hold out in Mitch and Murk. 50 + Vance you could essentially kill the buster

But we will be lucky to win senate with 52, that means we would have to flip one of Georgia, NH or Michigan. I do not see Rs winning Maine or NC

Brit Hume thinks we lose both Senate and House, if election were held today, which would really suck



Kenneth_2003
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AG
nortex97 said:

To have a durable majority, obvious fraud such as the 'voters' in NY below needs to be eliminated, in all states.

Redistricting is just phase 1 (hopefully), then this (fraud), then the new census/re-apportionment.

Think that's voter fraud or an entitlement scam that ended up on a voter role?
Gigem314
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AG
ts5641 said:

We're two teams playing with completely different rules to the game.

A big reason why Trump is so hated. He came in with a megaphone and didn't just quietly sit there and let the Dems/media set the narrative and the rules like most Republican leaders had for years. He didn't "follow the script" and the Dems hate him more than anyone else in the world.

For all of his negatives, Trump has at least set the blueprint for future Republican leaders. Don't play cordial. Don't sit back while the other side is being ruthless.
aggie93
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AG
Kenneth_2003 said:

nortex97 said:

To have a durable majority, obvious fraud such as the 'voters' in NY below needs to be eliminated, in all states.

Redistricting is just phase 1 (hopefully), then this (fraud), then the new census/re-apportionment.

Think that's voter fraud or an entitlement scam that ended up on a voter role?

That's a double win for the Dems.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
American Hardwood
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AG
Why would you think it isn't both?
LMCane
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notice how as always, Governor Ron DeSantis crushes the execution of important legislation and makes things happen!

if only we had 30 GOP Governors just like him!~
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