Kansas Kid said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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LMCane said:

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great news

economy humming along

54 record highs on Wall Street since Trump took office!

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Stock market is something Trump likes to tout as proof he is doing great. The problem with that method is you then have to say Clinton and Obama (first term) were even better Presidents. It also would imply Biden was better than Reagan.

1981-1985 Reagan (R) 30%
1985-1989 Reagan (R) 68%
1989-1993 Bush (R) 52%
1993-1997 Clinton (D) 79%
1997-2001 Clinton (D) 73%
2001-2005 Bush (R) -12%
2005-2009 Bush (R) -28%
2009-2013 Obama (D) 85%
2013-2017 Obama (D) 52%
2017-2021 Trump (R) 67%
2021-2025 Biden (D) 56%
Average 40%

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Obama 1 and Biden should be thrown out as exceptions for obvious reasons. Even Clinton 2 was mainly a bubble that W paid for.

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I love how people always want to throw out cases that don't fit their narrative. So should we throw out the current record of Trump because he followed Biden who was horrible for the economy. As for bubbles, by almost every metric, the current market is way more overvalued than the end of Clinton.

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Its not a narrative. Your data is trash as far as making any kind of valid judgement across Presidents, that's all.

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Exactly my point. You are the one wanting to use the stock market hitting record highs as proof Trump is doing great. The last President to serve that didn't see a record high at some point was Herbert Hoover.

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I'm not using anything to justify Trump's tenure. To use your metric properly to compare, you have to throw out exceptions. By your logic, Biden is the greatest job creator to ever occupy the WH. Forget the fact that local governments closed businesses and re-opened them during Biden's first year because we got a vax. You have to throw out data points based on the exceptions. Use the dead man rule: would it have happened if a dead man were in the WH. Under Biden, that first year, absolutely!

The mean valuation of the market has increased over time. So no, I reject your assertion that it is way more overvalued than under Clinton. Per Schiller PE, it is not more overvalued. Overvaluation is determined relative to the mean at that time.

Again, LM Cane (sorry, I mistook you for him) was the one touting "54 record highs on Wall Street since Trump took office!" as proof he is doing a good job. Trump and many of his supporters also like to use it as proof of the job he is doing.

All I am pointing out is that is not a measurement that has one iota of proof that a President is doing great as shown by how flawed it is under essentially every other President over history. So which is it? You can use the stock market to say a President is doing a good job as you originally posted or it is a flawed measure as I stated originally?

For the record, Biden was horrible on the economy and Obama wasn't much better. Trump 1 did overall net good things for it. Trump 2 is still to be determined as there are some great data points but there are some data that shows concerns in the economy as it is too early to tell how any President is doing after less than a year and a half.

Can somebody post a graph of the M2 alongside the S&P500 since 1950?

Presidents should get zero credit for the stock market.

The U.S. economic miracle is a story of overcoming dumb Fed Decisions, the Tax Code, and excess regulation.

They should all just declare it could have been even better but we had to do all these things.

Quote:

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But what about most people? They are unemployed.

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MOST people?

The unemployment rate is 4.3%, well below the historical average of 5.6% since 1948.

The Fed considers 5% to be a "natural rate" of unemployment.

I've got some great news on the stock market.

With the national debt north of 100% of GDP, there should be enough debt monetization to drive massive gains in the financial markets.

Biz Ag said:

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Quote:

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But what about most people? They are unemployed.

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MOST people?

The unemployment rate is 4.3%, well below the historical average of 5.6% since 1948.

The Fed considers 5% to be a "natural rate" of unemployment.

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"most people" was a wrong statement on my part. That would mean over 50% and that is not the case.

But the unemployment is significantly greater than this 4.3% number that is bandied about.
A breakdown by sector. Some sectors are doing okay, some like tech are terrible.
Also, I want to see mean/median of salaries now and compare it with earlier years. That would reveal a lot that 4.3% hides.

Sims said:

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I'd post my title but it starts with C and ends with O and I know that would not pave the way for a productive conversation with you.

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On an anonymous board, everyone is the President of the United States.

Agfencer98 said:

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I've had 7 headhunters call me this week alone. 3 last week.

At least in my industry, there seems to be a ton of demand.

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Well, don't answer them, then.

Good gosh, they'll shrink your head down after decapitating you.

Agfencer98 said:

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I've had 7 headhunters call me this week alone. 3 last week.

At least in my industry, there seems to be a ton of demand.

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Headhunters calling means nothing. They may be fake jobs and you may be the check mark token US citizen to reject before they hire an H1B. Happened to me many times.

I got 2 calls yesterday myself.
Last week I got a fake job from someone claiming to be a recruiter from Charles Schwab for a $450k Director level job. Problem was the email address was gmail! For fun, I just responded and they immediately directed me to a paid resume service of some dude from Pakistan.

What industry are you in, if you don't mind sharing.

infinity ag said:

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Biz Ag said:

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Quote:

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But what about most people? They are unemployed.

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MOST people?

The unemployment rate is 4.3%, well below the historical average of 5.6% since 1948.

The Fed considers 5% to be a "natural rate" of unemployment.

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"most people" was a wrong statement on my part. That would mean over 50% and that is not the case.

But the unemployment is significantly greater than this 4.3% number that is bandied about.
A breakdown by sector. Some sectors are doing okay, some like tech are terrible.
Also, I want to see mean/median of salaries now and compare it with earlier years. That would reveal a lot that 4.3% hides.

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Why should anyone provide you with anything? You do nothing but deny truth despite being given hard facts and evidence.

Good number but ADP is even less reliable than BLS.

Logos Stick said:

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infinity ag said:

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Biz Ag said:

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Quote:

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But what about most people? They are unemployed.

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MOST people?

The unemployment rate is 4.3%, well below the historical average of 5.6% since 1948.

The Fed considers 5% to be a "natural rate" of unemployment.

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"most people" was a wrong statement on my part. That would mean over 50% and that is not the case.

But the unemployment is significantly greater than this 4.3% number that is bandied about.
A breakdown by sector. Some sectors are doing okay, some like tech are terrible.
Also, I want to see mean/median of salaries now and compare it with earlier years. That would reveal a lot that 4.3% hides.

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Why should anyone provide you with anything? You do nothing but deny truth despite being given hard facts and evidence.

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Because that is what this board is for. To discuss.
People who don't want to discuss can ignore or move on.

You have your opinion and I have mine. I have presented mine respectfully with no name calling (unlike many others who routinely call me names).

My viewpoint is simple that the job market is horrible right now. It is worse for new grads. Most people here who boast about getting x calls from recruiters are olds. They may also be fake calls. Only a real offer matters, not recruiter calls. There are many layers to this game.
Yes, some areas worse than others but overall, it is pretty bad. If you disagree, then no problem, that is your choice to.

I didn't trust Biden's numbers earlier, I don't trust Trump's numbers on employment either.

infinity ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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infinity ag said:

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Biz Ag said:

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Quote:

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But what about most people? They are unemployed.

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MOST people?

The unemployment rate is 4.3%, well below the historical average of 5.6% since 1948.

The Fed considers 5% to be a "natural rate" of unemployment.

---

"most people" was a wrong statement on my part. That would mean over 50% and that is not the case.

But the unemployment is significantly greater than this 4.3% number that is bandied about.
A breakdown by sector. Some sectors are doing okay, some like tech are terrible.
Also, I want to see mean/median of salaries now and compare it with earlier years. That would reveal a lot that 4.3% hides.

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Why should anyone provide you with anything? You do nothing but deny truth despite being given hard facts and evidence.

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Because that is what this board is for. To discuss.
People who don't want to discuss can ignore or move on.

You have your opinion and I have mine. I have presented mine respectfully with no name calling (unlike many others who routinely call me names).

My viewpoint is simple that the job market is horrible right now. It is worse for new grads. Most people here who boast about getting x calls from recruiters are olds. They may also be fake calls. Only a real offer matters, not recruiter calls. There are many layers to this game.
Yes, some areas worse than others but overall, it is pretty bad. If you disagree, then no problem, that is your choice to.

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Stop with the ad homs against "olds". You do that constantly. The "olds" present you with facts everyday and you just plug your ears!

infinity ag said:

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Because that is what this board is for. To discuss.
People who don't want to discuss can ignore or move on.

You have your opinion and I have mine. I have presented mine respectfully with no name calling (unlike many others who routinely call me names).

My viewpoint is simple that the job market is horrible right now. It is worse for new grads. Most people here who boast about getting x calls from recruiters are olds. They may also be fake calls. Only a real offer matters, not recruiter calls. There are many layers to this game.
Yes, some areas worse than others but overall, it is pretty bad. If you disagree, then no problem, that is your choice to.

I didn't trust Biden's numbers earlier, I don't trust Trump's numbers on employment either.

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Your insistence on calling other people fake without providing any substance whatsoever to the stances you take (particularly when given facts that point to the contrary) is disrespecful in the most positive reading of your intent.

Bulldog73 said:

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If you discount the skilled trades, yeah, the economy might not be roaring. And I have no doubt that college grads, particulary with liberal arts degrees, are not finding work quickly. Because discounting skilled trades is, ahem, stupid. Mike Rowe was talking to Plano electricians pulling down $200K and who were setting their own hours. There is a huge need for HVAC, electrical linemen, welders, plumbers, etc. And some college paths are booming, too. Teachers, nurses all can decide where they want to get their jobs. But if you're too good to go where the work is, you might get hungry.

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Exactly
Seems some people afraid AI will replace them?

infinity ag said:

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Sims said:

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I'd post my title but it starts with C and ends with O and I know that would not pave the way for a productive conversation with you.

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On an anonymous board, everyone is the President of the United States.

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And a self made millionaire stock investor...who can't seem to hold a job they like.

Quote:

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and WAGE GROWTH has been extremely high (hence inflation)

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Wage growth is a response to inflation rather than its initial driver. Wage growth typically lags inflation, but expectations of higher prices can lead to higher wage demands.

People demand higher wages because policies have led to higher prices.

Kansas Kid said:

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LMCane said:

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great news

economy humming along

54 record highs on Wall Street since Trump took office!

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Stock market is something Trump likes to tout as proof he is doing great. The problem with that method is you then have to say Clinton and Obama (first term) were even better Presidents. It also would imply Biden was better than Reagan.

1981-1985 Reagan (R) 30%
1985-1989 Reagan (R) 68%
1989-1993 Bush (R) 52%
1993-1997 Clinton (D) 79%
1997-2001 Clinton (D) 73%
2001-2005 Bush (R) -12%
2005-2009 Bush (R) -28%
2009-2013 Obama (D) 85%
2013-2017 Obama (D) 52%
2017-2021 Trump (R) 67%
2021-2025 Biden (D) 56%
Average 40%

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Problem is the stock market often does not reflect the health of the economy.
The stock market may reflect the enormous impact of deficit spending. Increased inflation resulting in increased stock prices that wage increases don't keep up with.

There are an estimated 7 million jobless not included in the UE numbers...

There are an estimated 11 million job vacancies.

We don't have an unemployment issue, we have a lazy AF issue.

have to love the dummies who claim a President should never get credit for 50 new all time highs for the stock markets

but the same dummies turn around and blame a President for high gasoline prices.

WHICH IS IT?!?!

infinity ag said:

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LMCane said:

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great news

economy humming along

54 record highs on Wall Street since Trump took office!

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Stock market great
Job market in the tank

I make most of my money in stock market so I am good (I am up big YTD). But what about most people? They are unemployed. Even in my current job, my salary is way down from what is used to be.

No, I won't do HVAC, plumber, electrician jobs. I'd rather retire.

Trump needs to work fast to improve the job market, I don't trust all these feel-good news articles.

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Learn to code, err, weld.

infinity ag said:

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Sims said:

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infinity ag said:

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The job market is still VERY BAD in high income areas as they are being taken over by foreigners or off-shored.

If one does not believe it, just look around you, go to places where you will meet such people and talk to them. I don't trust any of these government numbers, they can be misleading if not blatantly wrong. People are taking up jobs with much lower salaries than earlier - yes, they may be employed, but at what level? I want to see a comparison of mean/median salaries from today and from 10 years ago. You can have 100% employment if you manage to hire everyone for 10k a year. That isn't going to do it.

New grads are struggling to find new jobs, I have kids that age so I know what is really happening.

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The job market in your niche/industry may be different than others' lived experience.

I'm in an industry where recruiters are aggressive enough to cold call me multiple times per week. I'm a 20 year veteran of heavy manufacturing and industrial construction - it's a sellers market for talent in those industries.

I wouldn't say the overall job market is VERY BAD, but I would agree certain industries are being elevated and others suppressed. As others have pointed out, in sectors where actual demand is not being wildly disrupted by innovation (AI) there are not only green shoots, there are bidding wars for talent.

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Could you please post more information for some job titles for which there are bidding wars? You could pick out any company from Linkedin or elsewhere, not your own employer. I am curious about which sectors are booming.

Manufacturing has been gone for decades. Tech is going as well. I have seen companies hiring foreigners with unimaginably low salaries in high cost areas to depress US wages. To the people who are okay with this, don't complain when your neighborhoods (Frisco, Prosper etc) are overrun by foreigners who don't share American values.

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You need to broaden your view of the economy. I'm an engineer. My salary is up 60% in 4 years. +24% just last year and a couple weeks ago I turned down a recruiting pitch for another 40% increase. What I walked away from is 225% of what I was making 4 years ago.

Granted it's a small niche that hasn't been very lucrative until recently and there are probably only a hundred people globally in this niche.

My wife's consulting work with industrial clients however is very broad and in the past year or two has become completely disconnected from the typical price demand curve. She has raised her rates multiple times and it does nothing to slow the number of contracts she's landing. She's been working 7 days a week and can't keep up.

infinity ag said:

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Agfencer98 said:

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I've had 7 headhunters call me this week alone. 3 last week.

At least in my industry, there seems to be a ton of demand.

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Headhunters calling means nothing. They may be fake jobs and you may be the check mark token US citizen to reject before they hire an H1B. Happened to me many times.

I got 2 calls yesterday myself.
Last week I got a fake job from someone claiming to be a recruiter from Charles Schwab for a $450k Director level job. Problem was the email address was gmail! For fun, I just responded and they immediately directed me to a paid resume service of some dude from Pakistan.

What industry are you in, if you don't mind sharing.

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Just an FYI, we(the posters on this board) know the difference in real and fake calls and really don't need it explained to us. If we thought these calls were fake we wouldn't post about them.

tysker said:

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Quote:

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and WAGE GROWTH has been extremely high (hence inflation)

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Wage growth is a response to inflation rather than its initial driver. Wage growth typically lags inflation, but expectations of higher prices can lead to higher wage demands.

People demand higher wages because policies have led to higher prices.

---

After COVID, the biggest cause for the massive inflation was the artificial wage increase due to the government paying people to stay at home way too long. Minimum wage employees started making $10 - $12/hr in non-union states and up to $20 in places like California.

That directly affected the cost of almost everything.

That was a case of the reverse of your statement. That wage growth CAUSED the massive inflation we saw and was certainly not a lag.

infinity ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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infinity ag said:

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Biz Ag said:

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Quote:

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But what about most people? They are unemployed.

---

MOST people?

The unemployment rate is 4.3%, well below the historical average of 5.6% since 1948.

The Fed considers 5% to be a "natural rate" of unemployment.

---

"most people" was a wrong statement on my part. That would mean over 50% and that is not the case.

But the unemployment is significantly greater than this 4.3% number that is bandied about.
A breakdown by sector. Some sectors are doing okay, some like tech are terrible.
Also, I want to see mean/median of salaries now and compare it with earlier years. That would reveal a lot that 4.3% hides.

---

Why should anyone provide you with anything? You do nothing but deny truth despite being given hard facts and evidence.

---

Because that is what this board is for. To discuss.
People who don't want to discuss can ignore or move on.

You have your opinion and I have mine. I have presented mine respectfully with no name calling (unlike many others who routinely call me names).

My viewpoint is simple that the job market is horrible right now. It is worse for new grads. Most people here who boast about getting x calls from recruiters are olds. They may also be fake calls. Only a real offer matters, not recruiter calls. There are many layers to this game.
Yes, some areas worse than others but overall, it is pretty bad. If you disagree, then no problem, that is your choice to.

I didn't trust Biden's numbers earlier, I don't trust Trump's numbers on employment either.

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The point is you don't want to discuss. You want to bash certain job titles or others you perceive have "wronged" you. You post not looking for engagement but rather confirmation bias to support your view that CEO's are all evil and everything bad happening is happening to you.

Sims said:

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fullback44 said:

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The economy will not be humming until I see the construction jobs rising... it should rise fast once things get rolling..

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Residential?

Silver Tsunami may have something to say with respect to residential construction specifically. Historically it's a great indicator but we are entering a phase without historical precedent.

Not saying you're wrong as it is a preferred indicator, I just think a more holistic look will be necessary to make the call. Given rate lock effects, immigration effects, boomers downsizing and estate transfers...lots of crosscurrents in residential - starts may be a much noisier signal this time around.

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Im in the chemical business and specifically products related to copper and silver mining which goes into wire used in home building products (and car sales and commercial buildings). when residential homes and other construction building projects are booming our business is booming as well because of all the wire that goes into a house. Also when Commercial buildings and cars sales are booming means we are selling more product. Just giving my perspective from real life observations of running a business that makes products related to these industries (I dont need to look at government reports to know when things are going well, I look at our sales)

How does this scenario change the "employment" numbers?

Google fires US workers and replaces them with H1B's? And, if they have to hire more H1B's because they don't produce at the rate of the US workers, does that "inflate" the employment numbers? Or the ADP Payroll numbers?

Does the "employment" numbers include only US citizens?

I have no idea how this is handled in the "numbers".

Science Denier said:

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tysker said:

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Quote:

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and WAGE GROWTH has been extremely high (hence inflation)

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Wage growth is a response to inflation rather than its initial driver. Wage growth typically lags inflation, but expectations of higher prices can lead to higher wage demands.

People demand higher wages because policies have led to higher prices.

---

After COVID, the biggest cause for the massive inflation was the artificial wage increase due to the government paying people to stay at home way too long. Minimum wage employees started making $10 - $12/hr in non-union states and up to $20 in places like California.

That directly affected the cost of almost everything.

That was a case of the reverse of your statement. That wage growth CAUSED the massive inflation we saw and was certainly not a lag.

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Sigh. The government helicopter dropping money into people's checking accounts exacerbated the inflationary cycle we are in today. Don't confuse your cause and effects here. M2 spiked under Trump and later Biden, which directly led to what we are seeing today. Wages were a reaction to fiscal spending and monetary policy of COVID, not the other way around.


eta: wages can create demand push inflation, however that is later in the cycle. I dont think anyone thinks we are on the inflation downtrend where labor markets are tight, and firms can pass those higher costs through

Science Denier said:

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How does this scenario change the "employment" numbers?

Google fires US workers and replaces them with H1B's? And, if they have to hire more H1B's because they don't produce at the rate of the US workers, does that "inflate" the employment numbers? Or the ADP Payroll numbers?

Does the "employment" numbers include only US citizens?

I have no idea how this is handled in the "numbers".

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Not sure but some related context.

The 2025 USCIS report shows 406k H1B approvals.

WSJ reports from Jan 1, 2024 through Q1 2026 tech has laid off 349k people. And that's just tech jobs.

Even accounting for jobs here that aren't 1:1, that is criminal. We don't need the H1B program. At all.

Cancel it.

The real question: How are the H1B CEOs doing and are they getting the raises they, naturally, deserve?

BigRobSA said:

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The real question: How are the H1B CEOs doing and are they getting the raises they, naturally, deserve?

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2BH1B or not 2BH1B?

That is the question.

tysker said:

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Science Denier said:

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tysker said:

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Quote:

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and WAGE GROWTH has been extremely high (hence inflation)

---

Wage growth is a response to inflation rather than its initial driver. Wage growth typically lags inflation, but expectations of higher prices can lead to higher wage demands.

People demand higher wages because policies have led to higher prices.

---

After COVID, the biggest cause for the massive inflation was the artificial wage increase due to the government paying people to stay at home way too long. Minimum wage employees started making $10 - $12/hr in non-union states and up to $20 in places like California.

That directly affected the cost of almost everything.

That was a case of the reverse of your statement. That wage growth CAUSED the massive inflation we saw and was certainly not a lag.

---

Sigh. The government helicopter dropping money into people's checking accounts exacerbated the inflationary cycle we are in today. Don't confuse your cause and effects here. M2 spiked under Trump and later Biden, which directly led to what we are seeing today. Wages were a reaction to fiscal spending and monetary policy of COVID, not the other way around.


eta: wages can create demand push inflation, however that is later in the cycle. I dont think anyone thinks we are on the inflation downtrend where labor markets are tight, and firms can pass those higher costs through

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I'm not confusing anything. My secretaries / minimum wage workers would not come work because they were being paid to stay at home. Period. And we were lucky in Texas. Our paying to stay at home ended quicker than alot of other states. Even after alot of the free money required working, we had these folks show up, work their minimum amount of work and then quit to get paid to stay at home again. It was terrible, and was non-stop for damn near a year.

Anyway, I ended up paying $10 - $12 per hour for positions that just a few months sooner $8.00/hr. Same for grocery stores, manufacturing, shippers, etc. Everyone. Every business.

So, I raised my prices. Just like everyone. Thus inflation of insane numbers.

Average inflation - Link
2019 - 1.81
2020 - 1.24
2021 - 4.69
2022 - 8.01
2023 - 4.14
2024 - 2.95
2025 - 2.60

Hmmmmm. See that spike. Right after COVID? See inflation dropping back down once prices caught up to labor costs?

It was real. I saw it first hand with my business.

Nowhere did I say inflation would drop any time soon. We are not going back to 8% - 10% any time soon unless we get another event like we had with COVID where people are paid to not work.

Gilded Era

I don't mind sharing at all - I've posted in some different spots before. I am a marketer in the casino industry - and based on job postings, personal experience and experiences of colleagues, I can tell you without a doubt that our industry is hiring. It may be churn, but if you are halfway competent, we are hiring.

Also, in terms of who the headhunters were, each of them was one that I have worked with in the past, mostly to find employees - only 2 were trying to lure me away, and they were properties that I had no interest in.