TarponChaser said:
The big question seems to be where the birds went and IIRC, the DU and Delta Waterfowl population studies from the summer put the various duck population counts as really high this year.
Is it the weather patterns that have kept the birds up north on all that food? Are they dispersing when they get down here due to habitat loss?
My opinion, the ducks dont exist. The people reporting numbers have a vested interest in the numbers staying high. DU, Delta, USFWS. All their jobs rely on people buying duck stamps, going to banquets, buying memberships, and hunting ducks. If duck numbers drop then incoming funds will shrink, and their budgets will too. Their existence relies on high populations. They may not be able to complete that pet project they had their eye on, they might have to fire their five assistants and actually do some work themselves, or ultimately, they could be looking for a new career. Experienced duck hunters all across the country are screaming for something to be done but the people that are actually supposed to be protecting the resource are pulling a Baghdad Bob. The whole thing stinks.
I also have a theory that a lot of the counts are misleading, even if the count is accurate. We know pressure has exploded in the last 10-20 years, while hunter success has been on a steady decline. People are seeing a small fraction of what they used to see. Yet, we're told the counts are only down 10-20%. A lot of the national wildlife refuges just did counts last week and told us the same thing. Numbers down only 10-20% from their localized long-term averages. So they come out and use that as evidence that populations are ok. My theory- Due to hunting pressure, a much higher percentage of the overall population is sitting on the refuges. If populations havent dropped, then refuge counts should have exploded. But they havent. If you're only counting birds on the refuges, it doesnt look too bad. Count birds in an entire state and you'd get a much different picture.
I think the "ducks are somewhere else" angle is just wrong. Talk to people EVERYWHERE and we've all come up with our excuses of why the birds left wherever HERE is. But no one ANYWHERE will say more birds showed up where they are. It's much bigger than one areas anecdotal evidence. Fact is, they dont exist. North, south, east, or west. They didnt shift flyways, leave sooner, or get short stopped up north. Talk to people in Nebraska and they'll tell you the birds dont winter there anymore and just pass through in a week. People in Kansas and Oklahoma will tell you the pressure from out of staters have pushed the birds further east, back into Arkansas and Missouri. And of course, people in Louisiana and Texas will tell you they're being short stopped and being held by all those people up north. The same people that are also reporting the worst seasons of their lives.
For me, this is how Ive always known the short stopped theory is bunk- Do yall know why we see very few banded wigeon, spoonies, gadwalls, cans, etc? Its because they are hard to net. The reason they are hard to net is they dont really eat corn. They drastically prefer subsurface aquatic vegetation. A flooded corn field is going to do nothing to hold them up north. Yet, they're huntable and observable populations have cratered starting around 2000 and been on a steady decline ever since. The east Texas lakes used to be black with these species feeding on hydrilla. The food is still there but the birds arent. And very few of the lakes to our north contain those types of food sources.