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Beef Prices to Keep Rising as Brazil Supply Shrinks

3,984 Views | 53 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by lotsofhp
rancher1953
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8:23a, 1/6/26
Hopefully good news for the cattlemen if the new world screwworm does not hit and we can control the pasture mealy bugs hitting Texas.

https://www.agriculture.com/partners-beef-prices-to-keep-rising-as-brazil-supply-shrinks-11877652


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StockHorseAg
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8:48a, 1/6/26
AG
I'm all for ranchers getting higher prices for their cattle but if the prices of beef keep climbing, it's going to price it's self out of the market and then there won't be any demand. When I look at the meat section at Walmart, two 16oz choice ribeye's are pushing $45. There's a lot of people struggling to put food on the table right now and they aren't walking into Walmart to buy $22 steaks and $5 a pound ground beef in my opinion.
Beef is quickly becoming a luxury good.
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Matsui
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In reply to StockHorseAg • 8:51a, 1/6/26
AG
This is correct.
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96ags
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In reply to StockHorseAg • 9:00a, 1/6/26
AG
StockHorseAg said:
I'm all for ranchers getting higher prices for their cattle but if the prices of beef keep climbing, it's going to price it's self out of the market and then there won't be any demand. When I look at the meat section at Walmart, two 16oz choice ribeye's are pushing $45. There's a lot of people struggling to put food on the table right now and they aren't walking into Walmart to buy $22 steaks and $5 a pound ground beef in my opinion.
Beef is quickly becoming a luxury good.

Data on consumer demand simply doesn't support this theory.

Beef prices as a percentage of income has been relatively stable and consumer demand has not decreased.
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rancher1953
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9:01a, 1/6/26
Here are a couple of meat buying tips. I get Flat Iron Steaks at HEB; they are a great cut of beef and tender if you don't overcook them. Also, chuck eye steaks are just as good as ribeye, make sure you look for the marbling they are great. Additionally look for the sales that HEB has on steaks good prices and stock up.
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Corps_Ag12
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9:02a, 1/6/26
AG
I love how instead of fixing the problem, the solution that's given is just shop smarter and buy cheaper cuts.
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HTownAg98
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In reply to Corps_Ag12 • 9:35a, 1/6/26
The solution is more cattle. Got any ideas on how to fix that? We can increase imports of live cattle, but that won't be happening from anywhere south of our border. It also needs to rain to ease drought situations in Texas and the western United States. Unless you've got a rain machine in your back pocket, that won't be happening either.
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StockHorseAg
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In reply to Corps_Ag12 • 9:59a, 1/6/26
AG
I feel like it proves my point even more. It's like saying Ferraris have gotten to expensive at the dealership so I'm going to settle for a Honda Accord. If you put it into sport mode and put a cold air intake on it, it feels almost like a Ferrari.
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Mega Lops
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In reply to StockHorseAg • 10:23a, 1/6/26
AG
StockHorseAg said:
Beef is quickly becoming a luxury good.

This is by design.

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javajaws
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In reply to 96ags • 12:15p, 1/6/26
AG
96ags said:
StockHorseAg said:
I'm all for ranchers getting higher prices for their cattle but if the prices of beef keep climbing, it's going to price it's self out of the market and then there won't be any demand. When I look at the meat section at Walmart, two 16oz choice ribeye's are pushing $45. There's a lot of people struggling to put food on the table right now and they aren't walking into Walmart to buy $22 steaks and $5 a pound ground beef in my opinion.
Beef is quickly becoming a luxury good.

Data on consumer demand simply doesn't support this theory.

Beef prices as a percentage of income has been relatively stable and consumer demand has not decreased.

Sorry, but my own anecdotal evidence says otherwise as I am sure it does for others. I haven't bought a steak in who knows how long now because of the exorbitant prices. And I'm in the top 10% of earners in this country. If I wanted to buy some, I could - but I can't justify the price/value at current rates to myself. There are other things I would rather spend that money on.
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oh no
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12:26p, 1/6/26
AG
World Economic Forum wants less cattle. Their farts are destroying humanity with the existential threat of climate crisis. You will eat bugs or you will grow your beef in a lab.
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Rex Racer
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In reply to oh no • 1:52p, 1/6/26
AG
oh no said:
World Economic Forum wants less cattle. Their farts are destroying humanity with the existential threat of climate crisis. You will eat bugs or you will grow your beef in a lab.

Burps, not farts.
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oh no
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In reply to Rex Racer • 2:03p, 1/6/26
AG
Rex Racer said:
oh no said:
World Economic Forum wants less cattle. Their farts are destroying humanity with the existential threat of climate crisis. You will eat bugs or you will grow your beef in a lab.

Burps, not farts.

damn it. I always get my acid rain, ozone layer hole, global warming, climate crisis causes mixed up.
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TarponChaser
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In reply to javajaws • 2:04p, 1/6/26
javajaws said:
96ags said:
StockHorseAg said:
I'm all for ranchers getting higher prices for their cattle but if the prices of beef keep climbing, it's going to price it's self out of the market and then there won't be any demand. When I look at the meat section at Walmart, two 16oz choice ribeye's are pushing $45. There's a lot of people struggling to put food on the table right now and they aren't walking into Walmart to buy $22 steaks and $5 a pound ground beef in my opinion.
Beef is quickly becoming a luxury good.

Data on consumer demand simply doesn't support this theory.

Beef prices as a percentage of income has been relatively stable and consumer demand has not decreased.

Sorry, but my own anecdotal evidence says otherwise as I am sure it does for others. I haven't bought a steak in who knows how long now because of the exorbitant prices. And I'm in the top 10% of earners in this country. If I wanted to buy some, I could - but I can't justify the price/value at current rates to myself. There are other things I would rather spend that money on.


Anecdotes are not data though.

Even with the high prices demand for beef in the USA remains exceptionally high:

https://www.cobank.com/knowledge-exchange/animal-protein/us-beef-attracts-more-customers-than-it-can-handle

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/economics-of-u-s-beef-and-cattle-market

https://www.drovers.com/news/industry/consumer-craze-protein-drives-beef-demand
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Gaeilge
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2:06p, 1/6/26
We have halted Mexican live imports due to the screwworm, which has significantly impacted supply as well.
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Teslag
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2:46p, 1/6/26
AG
I'm glad I packed my freezer full of whole choice ribeyes for $5.77 a pound at HEB two weeks ago.
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country
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4:14p, 1/6/26
AG
Best bang for your buck over the long haul...buy a large freezer, find an FFA or 4H kid and cut a deal to buy their show steer when they are done for the year, have it slaughtered and cut how you want. I am largely oblivious to beef prices at the store as we simply go to the freezer. Some years I have more steaks cut, some years more ground, roasts, etc. One steer feeds my family of 5, my parents, and my brother and his family with supplemental meals woven in, i.e. chicken/pork/deer/etc. and eating out on occasion.
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plant science guy
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In reply to country • 4:23p, 1/6/26
country said:
Best bang for your buck over the long haul...buy a large freezer, find an FFA or 4H kid and cut a deal to buy their show steer when they are done for the year, have it slaughtered and cut how you want. I am largely oblivious to beef prices at the store as we simply go to the freezer. Some years I have more steaks cut, some years more ground, roasts, etc. One steer feeds my family of 5, my parents, and my brother and his family with supplemental meals woven in, i.e. chicken/pork/deer/etc. and eating out on occasion.

What's the up-front price for this? What are you offering for the steer, how much is processing?
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oh no
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In reply to country • 4:30p, 1/6/26
AG
how big of a freezer do you need for a whole freaking cow? I can barely fit a deer between my garage freezer and kitchen freezer.
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HTownAg98
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In reply to oh no • 5:11p, 1/6/26
When I was a kid, we would get a steer butchered and split it in half. I believe we had a 21.7 cubic foot chest freezer, and it was big enough for that, about 100 pounds of sausage, and other stuff.
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country
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5:42p, 1/6/26
AG
There are several avenues to get into it. You can talk to an individual and cut a deal. Obviously you'll want to be at least at live market rates, but generally higher to award the kid. Alternatively, there are several 501c organizations that you can go through and take tax savings through charitable donations or through ordinary business/promotion expense depending on your cup of tea. I'm generally all in for around $6 to $8 per pound. A large amount of ground meat, but the average keeps the cost of steaks down. You really need to be a home meal type to go the route, or find others to divide and conquer. Most people will get half a beef at most. A whole beef will fit in around 20 cf with a little room to spare. Even if that price keeps inching upwards I'm in for less that what the price of beef at the store is once the packers add the largest margin. Price of live cattle isn't the predominant expense of the beef you buy at the store. Cut all that out and go directly to someone.
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44mAG
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8:06p, 1/6/26
AG
As long as large cattle ranches keep being sold, and turned into subdivisions or smaller ranchetts without cattle, prices will continue to rise. That trend unfortunately will never go in reverse.
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Wvpd0707
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In reply to 44mAG • 7:38a, 1/7/26
AG
This. Also as it's been mentioned earlier the continued drought situation we have been experiencing in Texas plus the addition of land being turned into solar farms have taken a huge amount of land out of cattle production. Just got back from a trip that took me driving west out of Fort Worth and was surprised at the amount of new subdivisions being developed along interstate 20. All this land used to be cattle ranches.
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big ben
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12:41p, 1/7/26
AG
Pork chops it is....
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Matsui
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In reply to rancher1953 • 12:45p, 1/7/26
AG
Yeah, this is not a solution to beef prices being very high. This is a great solution to be able to eat beef without paying higher prices.
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rancher1953
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2:01p, 1/7/26
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rancher1953
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2:12p, 1/7/26
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maverick2076
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In reply to StockHorseAg • 2:59p, 1/7/26
StockHorseAg said:
I feel like it proves my point even more. It's like saying Ferraris have gotten to expensive at the dealership so I'm going to settle for a Honda Accord. If you put it into sport mode and put a cold air intake on it, it feels almost like a Ferrari.


Nevermind, I misread this in the context of the discussion
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rancher1953
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3:28p, 1/7/26
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MasonB
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3:56p, 1/7/26
AG
I'm a beef first consumer, but I confess that I am trending towards more and more pork these days and certainly cheaper beef cuts.
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ttha_aggie_09
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4:43p, 1/7/26
AG
I am just thankful I still have a bunch of elk meat in my freezer. Since it has been about 2 years, it is also nice to forget it cost about $400/lb and it feels free
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Doctor51
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7:10p, 1/7/26
AG
What if it's priced where it should be? Just like an iPhone, Starbucks etc. you could cut out anything to afford something else.
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BearJew13
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In reply to 44mAG • 7:17p, 1/7/26
AG
I highly doubt a meaningful amount of cattle production is being lost because of this.
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96ags
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In reply to BearJew13 • 7:23p, 1/7/26
AG
BearJew13 said:
I highly doubt a meaningful amount of cattle production is being lost because of this.


You would be sorely mistaken
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CactusThomas
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In reply to StockHorseAg • 8:42p, 1/7/26
AG
StockHorseAg said:
I'm all for ranchers getting higher prices for their cattle but if the prices of beef keep climbing, it's going to price it's self out of the market and then there won't be any demand. When I look at the meat section at Walmart, two 16oz choice ribeye's are pushing $45. There's a lot of people struggling to put food on the table right now and they aren't walking into Walmart to buy $22 steaks and $5 a pound ground beef in my opinion.
Beef is quickly becoming a luxury good.


Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded
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