FM 949 said:

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As an engineer, I tell people it's not if you will flood, it's when.

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This river is going to flood again, it will be worse than before, people will die. It's been happening for thousands of years. Over 100 people died this time and not all of them were idiots. The best we can do is the best we can do and the next best thing at the moment is flood alarms. Will that work? Probably better than nothing.

BrazosDog02 said:

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FM 949 said:

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As an engineer, I tell people it's not if you will flood, it's when.

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This river is going to flood again, it will be worse than before, people will die. It's been happening for thousands of years. Over 100 people died this time and not all of them were idiots. The best we can do is the best we can do and the next best thing at the moment is flood alarms. Will that work? Probably better than nothing.

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My expectation is that for the flood sirens to give adequate warning to those downstream, they are going to have to go off when the water first starts rising by more than a few feet. I expect that they will go off so often for what turns out to be minor flooding that people will start ignoring them like they do with Tstorm and flood alerts on their phones. Hopefully I am wrong, but I expect complacency to set in again in a relatively short period of time.

txags92 said:

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BrazosDog02 said:

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FM 949 said:

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As an engineer, I tell people it's not if you will flood, it's when.

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This river is going to flood again, it will be worse than before, people will die. It's been happening for thousands of years. Over 100 people died this time and not all of them were idiots. The best we can do is the best we can do and the next best thing at the moment is flood alarms. Will that work? Probably better than nothing.

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My expectation is that for the flood sirens to give adequate warning to those downstream, they are going to have to go off when the water first starts rising by more than a few feet. I expect that they will go off so often for what turns out to be minor flooding that people will start ignoring them like they do with Tstorm and flood alerts on their phones. Hopefully I am wrong, but I expect complacency to set in again in a relatively short period of time.

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Absolutely, then they will make adjustments to them for only extreme cases, and we'll be having discussions about why the city failed it's people. There is no amount of ''prep" that will give everyone adequate warning and if it does they won't follow it. I keep going back to Hurricane Harvey and watching the models for 50" of rain being completely dismissed 14 days out. 24 hours out many still thought "We've never seen this before, and it's not likely." So what happened? People lived on their roof for 3 days and drowned in their attics.

As stated, humans are really poor at risk assessment, and those that are not poor at it are generally first responders who are trained to understand it. Even when we do understand risk, we fall back to what we know and when that fails, it fails in a large way as we have seen here.

txags92 said:

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BrazosDog02 said:

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FM 949 said:

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As an engineer, I tell people it's not if you will flood, it's when.

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This river is going to flood again, it will be worse than before, people will die. It's been happening for thousands of years. Over 100 people died this time and not all of them were idiots. The best we can do is the best we can do and the next best thing at the moment is flood alarms. Will that work? Probably better than nothing.

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My expectation is that for the flood sirens to give adequate warning to those downstream, they are going to have to go off when the water first starts rising by more than a few feet. I expect that they will go off so often for what turns out to be minor flooding that people will start ignoring them like they do with Tstorm and flood alerts on their phones. Hopefully I am wrong, but I expect complacency to set in again in a relatively short period of time.

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this is already occuring...absolutely ridiculous the amount and frequency of "flood warnings"....plus any rise equal to what happened in 2025 will destroy any warning system we have in place now

It's like designing roadways, you do everything to standards, sign it, put warnings, but you still have people run off the road or have accidents. The problem doesn't have an end all/be all solution. There will always be a bigger flood, faster flood, someone in the wrong place at the wrong time. You do what you can.

dermdoc said:

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John Cocktolstoy said:

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We all agree that this is a horrible event and everyone hurts. No one is trying to make any less of any of the events that cost lives. The event that happened last summer happened because a super cell storm sat over a area that converged with the Guadalupe. No one thought it was going to be so bad. Hopefully now there can be some talking heads of reason to get better laws in place, or better weather sirens or something, so that this cannot happen again. Placing blame has been going on too long. Let's just fix it.

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I think with ANY kind of plan like just using the camp loudspeakers all those lives could have been saved. And the Eastlands have to go. Camp Mustic can go on without them and be much safer. You can't just "fix it
And act like there was not negligence causing the deaths of those girls. Those girls deserve better than that. That was the Eastland's plan, we will re open this summer and "fixit".sorry that will not fly and from talking to folks, the Eastland's actions after the flood bother them a whole lot.

We will agree to disagree and see what the courts decide.

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I think we all know your stance by now as you have posted about it. Over and over and over and over again. I'm sure I left out a few dozen "over's".

I think you're taking me pointing out your redundant posts a bit too seriously. I check in on this every once in a while and it is just usually you telling everyone how the Eastlunds have to go.

I just check to see what's going on it. Threads that have a lot of replies catch my attention and as I don't reside in Texas any longer I don't see this on the news. I follow along on here but have missed pages at a time when I'm busy. Have not gone back through it all and especially not all the links.
As such, I have not taken the time to read up on everything enough yet to have a solid position. I hardly consider that an echo chamber. As to pointing out your numerous posts - well it seems like a number of people champion the other side but you're the vocal angry critic. And the most repetitive individual in the thread of late. Just saying the same thing. You hate the Eastlunds. We get it

KerrAg76 said:

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txags92 said:

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BrazosDog02 said:

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FM 949 said:

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As an engineer, I tell people it's not if you will flood, it's when.

---

This river is going to flood again, it will be worse than before, people will die. It's been happening for thousands of years. Over 100 people died this time and not all of them were idiots. The best we can do is the best we can do and the next best thing at the moment is flood alarms. Will that work? Probably better than nothing.

---

My expectation is that for the flood sirens to give adequate warning to those downstream, they are going to have to go off when the water first starts rising by more than a few feet. I expect that they will go off so often for what turns out to be minor flooding that people will start ignoring them like they do with Tstorm and flood alerts on their phones. Hopefully I am wrong, but I expect complacency to set in again in a relatively short period of time.

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this is already occurring...absolutely ridiculous the amount and frequency of "flood warnings"....plus any rise equal to what happened in 2025 will destroy any warning system we have in place now

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Using the last few days as an example…..6 alarms in 2 days….people turning off and ignoring the warnings

mpl35 said:

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I just check to see what's going on it. Threads that have a lot of replies catch my attention and as I don't reside in Texas any longer I don't see this on the news. I follow along on here but have missed pages at a time when I'm busy. Have not gone back through it all and especially not all the links.
As such, I have not taken the time to read up on everything enough yet to have a solid position. I hardly consider that an echo chamber. As to pointing out your numerous posts - well it seems like a number of people champion the other side but you're the vocal angry critic. And the most repetitive individual in the thread of late. Just saying the same thing. You hate the Eastlunds. We get it

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There is a reason this thread has died on the vine. It's an absolute beating to read the same thing over and over again. Even as a parent of a Mystic camper, responding with a different opinion or thought isn't worth it. Honestly, the bullying and shaming of Mystic families who don't want the camp to close and the Eastland's completely ruined has been one of the most disgusting parts of this tragedy.

71 jock said:

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mpl35 said:

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I just check to see what's going on it. Threads that have a lot of replies catch my attention and as I don't reside in Texas any longer I don't see this on the news. I follow along on here but have missed pages at a time when I'm busy. Have not gone back through it all and especially not all the links.
As such, I have not taken the time to read up on everything enough yet to have a solid position. I hardly consider that an echo chamber. As to pointing out your numerous posts - well it seems like a number of people champion the other side but you're the vocal angry critic. And the most repetitive individual in the thread of late. Just saying the same thing. You hate the Eastlunds. We get it

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There is a reason this thread has died on the vine. It's an absolute beating to read the same thing over and over again. Even as a parent of a Mystic camper, responding with a different opinion or thought isn't worth it. Honestly, the bullying and shaming of Mystic families who don't want the camp to close and the Eastland's completely ruined has been one of the most disgusting parts of this tragedy.

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I diasagree with your last sentence 100%. I do feel for those families who enjoyed the camp and want it to reopen. That's a very fair statement. The fact you are disgusted that the eastland family is ruined is very sad. They DESERVE to be ruined. Their own testimony proves that point along with all the facts that have come out about how they ran that camp. Their ignorance can't be ignored.

he lost a family member genius

oldarmyag95 said:

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he lost a family member genius

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We all know that I think. No need to be an ass. It sucks. So did the Eastlunds - no matter their culpability in this. They might not be fit to run the camp but it isn't like they wanted this.

How many were saved?

TexasRebel said:

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How many were saved?

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27 fewer than showed up on the opening day of the second term just a few days earlier.

It's a damn shame that after all these years of no issues, that parents who lost kids and parents who didn't, want to crucify the Eastlund's like they had been planning this horrific event. I have deep deep feelings for anyone losing a child. It's just one of the worst things that can happen to you. Mystic being rooted in faith, intertwined with far reaching connections of state and national powers, I would be led to believe that these folks would have been digging more into the safety and lodging and food the staff...everything. Especially with how much it cost to send a kid there. And I know I will catch hell for saying it, but AN ACT OF GOD happened and NO ONE, not anyone anywhere had any idea how bad this was going to turn out, so they have to blame blame blame. I did not have a kid there. Some of you will say I have no right to post anything like this. It's your right to feel this way. I can't bring anyone back, no one can, but we all need to be moving in the same direction for the sake of the kids in the future. I think it's happening. The posts have already started with how the warning systems are already being a second thought. Human nature and all of that. I pray that this horrific event leads parents to do more investigation into safety and everything else that has come into the light.

I think if any us, the parents included, were running this camp the same thing would have happened. Maybe a different number of kids lost. Could be more could be less. But the event would have taken everyone to the hilt just the same. Just a different set of folks being crucified in court. I have heard some bad things out of the mouths of what I thought were God fearing faith based families and they didn't lose a kid. It has to stop somewhere. We all need to be better.
I know this will sound harsh to some and common sense to others, but we just need to be better.
Prayers to all.

John Cocktolstoy said:

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It's a damn shame that after all these years of no issues, that parents who lost kids and parents who didn't, want to crucify the Eastlund's like they had been planning this horrific event. I have deep deep feelings for anyone losing a child. It's just one of the worst things that can happen to you. Mystic being rooted in faith, intertwined with far reaching connections of state and national powers, I would be led to believe that these folks would have been digging more into the safety and lodging and food the staff...everything. Especially with how much it cost to send a kid there. And I know I will catch hell for saying it, but AN ACT OF GOD happened and NO ONE, not anyone anywhere had any idea how bad this was going to turn out, so they have to blame blame blame. I did not have a kid there. Some of you will say I have no right to post anything like this. It's your right to feel this way. I can't bring anyone back, no one can, but we all need to be moving in the same direction for the sake of the kids in the future. I think it's happening. The posts have already started with how the warning systems are already being a second thought. Human nature and all of that. I pray that this horrific event leads parents to do more investigation into safety and everything else that has come into the light.

I think if any us, the parents included, were running this camp the same thing would have happened. Maybe a different number of kids lost. Could be more could be less. But the event would have taken everyone to the hilt just the same. Just a different set of folks being crucified in court. I have heard some bad things out of the mouths of what I thought were God fearing faith based families and they didn't lose a kid. It has to stop somewhere. We all need to be better.
I know this will sound harsh to some and common sense to others, but we just need to be better.
Prayers to all.

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Honest question that I hope you will answer. Have you watched any portion of the 3-day TI hearing in March or Casey Garrett's 3+ hour presentation to the TX Ledge joint committee in April?

John Cocktolstoy said:

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It's a damn shame that after all these years of no issues, that parents who lost kids and parents who didn't, want to crucify the Eastlund's like they had been planning this horrific event. I have deep deep feelings for anyone losing a child. It's just one of the worst things that can happen to you. Mystic being rooted in faith, intertwined with far reaching connections of state and national powers, I would be led to believe that these folks would have been digging more into the safety and lodging and food the staff...everything. Especially with how much it cost to send a kid there. And I know I will catch hell for saying it, but AN ACT OF GOD happened and NO ONE, not anyone anywhere had any idea how bad this was going to turn out, so they have to blame blame blame. I did not have a kid there. Some of you will say I have no right to post anything like this. It's your right to feel this way. I can't bring anyone back, no one can, but we all need to be moving in the same direction for the sake of the kids in the future. I think it's happening. The posts have already started with how the warning systems are already being a second thought. Human nature and all of that. I pray that this horrific event leads parents to do more investigation into safety and everything else that has come into the light.

I think if any us, the parents included, were running this camp the same thing would have happened. Maybe a different number of kids lost. Could be more could be less. But the event would have taken everyone to the hilt just the same. Just a different set of folks being crucified in court. I have heard some bad things out of the mouths of what I thought were God fearing faith based families and they didn't lose a kid. It has to stop somewhere. We all need to be better.
I know this will sound harsh to some and common sense to others, but we just need to be better.
Prayers to all.

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Your sentiment echoes that of a lot of people, but it ignores an important fact. Two things can be true.

The Eastlands can both be amazing people who care deeply for their camp and their campers (setting aside the fact that members of the family saved their children and abandoned others)... AND they can be incompetent.

And saying things like it was a 1000 year event or no one could have prepared are all logical fallacies. The facts are that the Eastlands ignored the most basic disaster protocols is what's important here. Not that proper communication and distributed, understood disaster plans might not have worked anyway

Dick Eastland and Tweety and the kids may have run that camp with all the love for kids and good intent in the world, and still done it wrongly, with horrible, inexcusable blind spots. They can both be good people and people who shouldn't ever run a children's camp again.

I think this thread has become an emotional release mechanism for a lot of folks, but we should stop the constant calls for killing the discussion. That is a decision for the mods, not posters who are uncomfortable with what they read here.

We are all appealing to our own very limited knowledge and ultimately actual experts on the subject matter through the usual channels of regulatory agencies and courts will determine if concepts like Acts of God or appropriate risk management techniques apply to this tragedy.

My own view is that children's safety in future scenarios should be prioritized over absolutely everything. Everything else is a distraction.

Prince_Ahmed said:

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John Cocktolstoy said:

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It's a damn shame that after all these years of no issues, that parents who lost kids and parents who didn't, want to crucify the Eastlund's like they had been planning this horrific event. I have deep deep feelings for anyone losing a child. It's just one of the worst things that can happen to you. Mystic being rooted in faith, intertwined with far reaching connections of state and national powers, I would be led to believe that these folks would have been digging more into the safety and lodging and food the staff...everything. Especially with how much it cost to send a kid there. And I know I will catch hell for saying it, but AN ACT OF GOD happened and NO ONE, not anyone anywhere had any idea how bad this was going to turn out, so they have to blame blame blame. I did not have a kid there. Some of you will say I have no right to post anything like this. It's your right to feel this way. I can't bring anyone back, no one can, but we all need to be moving in the same direction for the sake of the kids in the future. I think it's happening. The posts have already started with how the warning systems are already being a second thought. Human nature and all of that. I pray that this horrific event leads parents to do more investigation into safety and everything else that has come into the light.

I think if any us, the parents included, were running this camp the same thing would have happened. Maybe a different number of kids lost. Could be more could be less. But the event would have taken everyone to the hilt just the same. Just a different set of folks being crucified in court. I have heard some bad things out of the mouths of what I thought were God fearing faith based families and they didn't lose a kid. It has to stop somewhere. We all need to be better.
I know this will sound harsh to some and common sense to others, but we just need to be better.
Prayers to all.

---

Your sentiment echoes that of a lot of people, but it ignores an important fact. Two things can be true.

The Eastlands can both be amazing people who care deeply for their camp and their campers (setting aside the fact that members of the family saved their children and abandoned others)... AND they can be incompetent.

And saying things like it was a 1000 year event or no one could have prepared are all logical fallacies. The facts are that the Eastlands ignored the most basic disaster protocols is what's important here. Not that proper communication and distributed, understood disaster plans might not have worked anyway

Dick Eastland and Tweety and the kids may have run that camp with all the love for kids and good intent in the world, and still done it wrongly, with horrible, inexcusable blind spots. They can both be good people and people who shouldn't ever run a children's camp again.

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Good way to sum it up…Just a incredibly tragic and sad event for all involved…