NOAA has released their prediction as "below normal".
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season
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NOAA Atlantic hurricane preseason predictions began in 1999. I have compiled a chart and this is how they have fared since then. Blue dots are prior to 1999, black dots are "extremely active" predictions, red dots are "above normal" predictions, yellow dots are "near normal" predictions, and green dots are "below normal" predictions. Looks like both predictions for "below normal" have been correct.
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Background.html
The phrase "total overall seasonal activity" refers to the combined intensity and duration of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes occurring during the season. The measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The ACE index is a wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (knots) measured every six hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity. The 1991-2020 mean value of the ACE index is 122.1 x 104 kt2, and the median value is 125.5 x 104 kt2. With most of 1991-2020 being in an active era, using ACE values from 1951-2020 is more representative of the possible ranges of activity that can result in similar ACE values. The 1951-2020 ACE median is 96.7 x 104 kt2
The following classifications are based on an approximate tercile partitioning of seasons based on the ACE index, combined with the seasonal number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season
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NOAA Atlantic hurricane preseason predictions began in 1999. I have compiled a chart and this is how they have fared since then. Blue dots are prior to 1999, black dots are "extremely active" predictions, red dots are "above normal" predictions, yellow dots are "near normal" predictions, and green dots are "below normal" predictions. Looks like both predictions for "below normal" have been correct.
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Background.html
The phrase "total overall seasonal activity" refers to the combined intensity and duration of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes occurring during the season. The measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The ACE index is a wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (knots) measured every six hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity. The 1991-2020 mean value of the ACE index is 122.1 x 104 kt2, and the median value is 125.5 x 104 kt2. With most of 1991-2020 being in an active era, using ACE values from 1951-2020 is more representative of the possible ranges of activity that can result in similar ACE values. The 1951-2020 ACE median is 96.7 x 104 kt2
The following classifications are based on an approximate tercile partitioning of seasons based on the ACE index, combined with the seasonal number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.
- Extremely active season: An ACE index above 159.6 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to 165% of the 1951-2020 median).
- Above-normal season: An ACE index above 126.1 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to the 67th percentile of the ACE values from 1951-2020, 130% of 96.7).
- Below-normal season:An ACE index below 73.0 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to less than 33rd percentile of the values from 1951-2020 median, 75% of 96.7).
- Near-normal season: Neither the above- nor below-normal season criteria are met.