NOAA has released their prediction as "below normal".

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season

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NOAA Atlantic hurricane preseason predictions began in 1999. I have compiled a chart and this is how they have fared since then. Blue dots are prior to 1999, black dots are "extremely active" predictions, red dots are "above normal" predictions, yellow dots are "near normal" predictions, and green dots are "below normal" predictions. Looks like both predictions for "below normal" have been correct.



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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Background.html

The phrase "total overall seasonal activity" refers to the combined intensity and duration of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes occurring during the season. The measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The ACE index is a wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (knots) measured every six hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity. The 1991-2020 mean value of the ACE index is 122.1 x 104 kt2, and the median value is 125.5 x 104 kt2. With most of 1991-2020 being in an active era, using ACE values from 1951-2020 is more representative of the possible ranges of activity that can result in similar ACE values. The 1951-2020 ACE median is 96.7 x 104 kt2
The following classifications are based on an approximate tercile partitioning of seasons based on the ACE index, combined with the seasonal number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.

• Extremely active season: An ACE index above 159.6 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to 165% of the 1951-2020 median).
• Above-normal season: An ACE index above 126.1 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to the 67th percentile of the ACE values from 1951-2020, 130% of 96.7).
• Below-normal season:An ACE index below 73.0 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to less than 33rd percentile of the values from 1951-2020 median, 75% of 96.7).
• Near-normal season: Neither the above- nor below-normal season criteria are met.

"It only takes one storm, so keep watching your local forecast to keep you weather aware."

Yeah, you're gonna have to explain that chart to me like I'm 5.
How often are the hurricane predictions accurate?

NoahAg said:

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Yeah, you're gonna have to explain that chart to me like I'm 5.
How often are the hurricane predictions accurate?

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A dot in the green shaded area was a below normal year.
A dot in the blue shaded area was a near normal year.
A dot in the purple shaded area was an above normal year.
A dot in the red shaded area was an extremely active year.

A green dot was a below normal prediction.
A yellow dot was a near normal prediction.
A red dot was an above normal prediction.
A black dot was an extremely active prediction.

Accurate prediction years: 8 times

• green dot in the green shaded area (2 times: 2014, 2015)
• yellow dot in blue shaded area (1 time: 2001)
• red dot in purple shaded area (4 times: 2008, 2011, 2021, 2025)
• black dot in red shaded area (1 time: 2010)

Underpredicted years (more ACE than predicted): 12 times

• yellow dot in purple shaded area (5 times: 2012, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2023)
• red dot in red shaded area (7 times: 1999, 2003-2005, 2017, 2020, 2024)

Overpredicted years (less ACE than predicted): 7 times

• red dot in blue or green shaded area (5 times: 2000, 2006, 2007, 2013, 2022)
• yellow dot in green shaded area (2 times: 2002, 2009)

Its an El Nino year which "should" be more disruptive to Gulf of Mexico storms than a La Nina year like we've been in for a while. Its going to do whatever it wants though as last year was a La Nina year and we had zero gulf storms.

Better get that lake fun time in before hurricane season gets here, I mean hurrrrrr

https://instagr.am/p/DY0ZHpfvx4H