VP at Pierce and Pierce said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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Michigan would be the favored team if y'all played that game next week, according to the numbers I used for the OP.

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According to actual casinos, Texas is favored by 2.5.

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These posters haven't bothered at looking at facts this entire thread, why start now? Easier for them to just assume OU and Michigan are going to stacked instead of doing actual research.

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I am sorry that I didn't include enough facts in the OP for the more simpleminded amongst us to be able to follow along. To lay it out clearly, the entire point of this post is to look at what SP+ (not Vegas, though it is one of the tools that does a decent job at competing with Vegas) says about each team based on its power rating and an assumed 3 point home advantage. Even despite that, you response completely misses the point that a spread within a field goal is nowhere close to a double digit blowout.

Now that I feel dirty for feeding the trolls this much, I will pivot to mentioning that the most interesting part of this data is that the top competitors for the #2 team in the SEC are all mid tier or lower teams from the last several years (#7, 8, and 11 from the data I posted recently on win totals since the last conference change). There is certainly an NIL piece to this, but it does lend credence to the people that say schedules were based on recent win/loss records, so teams that are a lot better now than they were just a few years ago may be significant benefactors in the opening year of the new SEC.

Ugly said:

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VP at Pierce and Pierce said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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Michigan would be the favored team if y'all played that game next week, according to the numbers I used for the OP.

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According to actual casinos, Texas is favored by 2.5.

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These posters haven't bothered at looking at facts this entire thread, why start now? Easier for them to just assume OU and Michigan are going to stacked instead of doing actual research.

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I am sorry that I didn't include enough facts in the OP for the more simpleminded amongst us to be able to follow along. To lay it out clearly, the entire point of this post is to look at what SP+ (not Vegas, though it is one of the tools that does a decent job at competing with Vegas) says about each team based on its power rating and an assumed 3 point home advantage. Even despite that, you response completely misses the point that a spread within a field goal is nowhere close to a double digit blowout.

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You did provide facts, thanks. I believe what is more important is returning roster experience and talent and if the head coach is coming back, which is why I believe both Texas and Texas A&M will have strong seasons. People are high on Michigan and OU for some strange reasons, football facts say a team that lost 18 starters and their head coach or a team that lost all their OL and will be playing predominantly first and second year guys are two teams that will struggle; especially against a team that returns their OL and QB has some talent at skill. When Texas leaves Ann Arbor after a 27-17 win, the board will act shocked.

Are you saying Miss State, Auburn, and South Carolina are all competing for top tire status in the SEC? Miss State and SC are going to be awful this fall, Auburn could be an 8 or 9 win squad. Did you mean to say Ole Miss, Missouri and Tennessee? If so, yes all three will be strong this fall. Of course Texas doesnt play any of those 3 and we only play one of them and its at home.

Notre Dame game is going to tell us a lot imo.

halfastros81 said:

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Notre Dame game is going to tell us a lot imo.

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Agreed. They lost a lot to the portal and to the NFL but gained a good QB and have a really solid group of talent. That said, we have the talent and experience to beat them by more than a TD. I think we pull away to a comfortable win and that propels us to a strong 2024.

Top tire, yes…as in big piles that catch on fire occasionally and burn for weeks if not years.

TXAG 05 said:

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Plus, swept off the field by Washington? The game was close and Texas almost won on the last play. Some of y'all really need to take off your maroon glasses.

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Sure they did. Sips got there due to B12 officiating. Won't happen in SEC.

Maybe you should take off your orange glasses.

Wearetheaggies said:

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TXAG 05 said:

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Plus, swept off the field by Washington? The game was close and Texas almost won on the last play. Some of y'all really need to take off your maroon glasses.

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Sure they did. Sips got there due to B12 officiating. Won't happen in SEC.

Maybe you should take off your orange glasses.

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I really really hope you are correct. I have my doubts though, years of bad officiating and biased officiating have me preparing for Texas to get all the calls this fall so they league can prop up playoff contenders. Their weak schedule doesn't help either. a 4-0 Texas team hosting a 2-2 Miss State is going to get all the calls. a 4 loss Florida team strolling into Austin isn't going to get any calls either.

Almost a year later seems like a good time to bump the thread and celebrate or laugh at the predictions throughout. Sorry retroactively for getting snippy, but I will try to keep this post light-hearted.

First, my win loss projections held up pretty well at the top of the conference, not so much for the bottom (sorry, formatting on here is difficult):


Team_____Pred Wins_Act Wins_Delta
Georgia___10.4______10_______-0.4
Ole Miss___10.1______9_______-1.1
tu________10.05_____11________0.95
Mizzou_____9.95______9_______-0.95
LSU_______9.65______8_______-1.65
Alabama____9.55_____9_______-0.55
Texas A&M__9.2______8_______-1.2
Tennessee__9.05_____10________0.95
Oklahoma___7.7______6_______-1.7
Auburn_____6.5_______5_______-1.5
Kentucky___6.05______4_______-2.05
Florida_____4.7_______7________2.3
USCe______4.55______9________4.45
Arkansas___3.95______6________2.05
Clanga_____4.1_______2_______-2.1
Vanderbilt___2.9_______6________3.1

Despite the dropoff at the bottom, I feel like this ended up being a pretty solid projection overall.

Now to address the audience's comments (including my own):

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So 7-5 again?

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No

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10 wins for the Sips?

Take the OP's Ag Tag away. Those near misses last year won't be W's this year. And they got swept off the field in the playoff game by a very mediocre team.

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Unfortunately, this ended up being a slight underestimate. This is good proof that schedule matters more than skill when teams are recruiting at as similar of a level as SEC teams are, and they had a very easy schedule (despite Vandy having more teeth than expected).

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I think Auburn is going to be much better than they were last year, and they already proved to be a tough out at home in year 1 under Freeze.

I think Auburn wins 8 games.

Nope

they will start 5-0, 2-0 in the sEC with wins over ark and OU

Nu-uh

they will lose to georgia and probably at mizzou

This did happen

then they will beat kentucky, vandy and ulm

This did not

that's 8 wins right there.

they finish with A&M at home and then at bama

if they beat us they will get to 9 wins.

Make that 5.

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Is Michigan really going to be a tough game? Didn't they lose all their best players along with their HC? I bet Michigan ends up being an 8-4 team and not much of a SoS booster

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7-5, but good guess regardless.

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We won't be a TD dog to tu by the time the game rolls around. I think we'll be slightly favored if the season goes how I think it will

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Yes and no. We ended up being a 4.5 point dog

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Pretty sure the OP didn't pay much attention during all those conference calls.

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This was a very correct statement. On a side note, I am waiting on programs to run at the moment.

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Why is everyone so high on OU? They lost every single OL that started for them to the draft or portal. Getting new QB. Most of their players will be freshmen and sophomores in the meat grinder of a schedule. They will be lucky to win 7 games. OU is going to lose to Texas due to inexperience.

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They were not, in fact, lucky enough to win 7 games (they won 6), and they did lose to tu.

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GA should have a higher win projection.

No, they apparently shouldn't have. 10.4 ended up being pretty damn close.

The big thing missing is the physicality and injury issue that the newbies are going to face in 2024.
The only thing that saves tu is if Arch is the next superstar Manning, and if he can't beat the most overpaid mediocre QB AKA Ewers he's probably is not the next NFL Manning. Peyton or Eli would have been starting Day 1 in Austin.

If A&M stays healthy and starts off beating Notre Dame I'd predict a 10 win season

Unfortunately, we didn't stay healthy or beat Notre Dame. I do agree that we'd have been at at least 10 wins if we had.

Ole Miss collapsing in another Mississippi scandal the way only Ole Miss can do it.
Kiffin has a history of wrecking his own success. His personality disfunction will sink the Rebs.

What they did probably counted as collapsing given expectations, but 9 wins is still a really good record for Ole Miss historically.

LSU better get prison reform and a new bail program before Kelly goes to the BIG.

The rest of the SEC is over-hyped mediocrity.

The biggest surprise in this list is the overachievement of the bottom half of the teams.

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I'd bet money on Texas winning 9 games or less this season. Georgia and Michigan are both probable losses. And they'll likely lose at least one more between OU, A&M (hopeful), and the rest of the SEC gauntlet.

Unfortunately, they only lost one of those.

I think this will be a coming-back-down-to-earth season for them, just not on the level TCU just had. They needed some luck to get to the playoffs last year, though it's rare that teams get their without luck, Bama also had luck against both Auburn and Georgia.

This will be an interesting year for the SEC though. With Bama losing Saban and LSU losing their Heisman winner, two SEC losses might be enough to put a team in the SEC championship game. There's not an obvious second behind Georgia.

In fact, we came really close to a three-loss team playing in the championship game.

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i think texas beats michigan by at least a touchdown

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Sadly true

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Georgia is going to play with their hair on fire all season, Kirby will see to it and they will become the new Bama

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Maybe, but I think they want to become the old Bama.

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Michigan would be the favored team if y'all played that game next week, according to the numbers I used for the OP.

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They were not favored, it was not close, and I apologize again for the y'all.

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Are you saying Miss State, Auburn, and South Carolina are all competing for top tire status in the SEC? Miss State and SC are going to be awful this fall, Auburn could be an 8 or 9 win squad. Did you mean to say Ole Miss, Missouri and Tennessee? If so, yes all three will be strong this fall. Of course Texas doesnt play any of those 3 and we only play one of them and its at home.

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I actually meant tu (#7 if including OU and tu), Ole Miss (#8), and Mizzou (#11). Sorry for the confusion. Also, USCe was not awful, and Auburn was not an "8 or 9 win squad". I will take another minor victory lap here and say that the big takeaway for me from last year is that schedule appeared to be a much better predictor of final record than team quality.

A&M coming in at No. 12 on this coming season's SP+. Alabama is the highest rated SEC team at No. 2 followed by Georgia at No. 4.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/44011175/initial-2025-college-football-sp+-rankings-every-fbs-team
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Edit - accidental emoji.

If you typed up all that stuff while on conference calls, your company might be overstaffed!