Johnny Boyziel 2 said:

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Reed. I'm excited to see him with a healthy and deep group of running backs.

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Lol. I'm ready to see if he's finally a good passing QB who moves the chains regularly.

Jawn Dough said:

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83Aggie said:

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O'Neill is the heir apparent. And he could become QB1 sooner than later.

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And how the hell do you know this?

O'Neill has 6 passing attempts. Although he did look good in that one drive, it's not a predictor of anything.

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Might be QB Helaman Casuga and as early as next season. He comes in next year as a true freshman and could start Day 1 over anyone if he enrolls early. He's deadly with his arm & feet.

vander54 said:

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Disagree. We need better QB play but it's not as horrible as you make it sound.

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A good QB does not lose you 4 straight games like that. Maybe he'll be better this year. He's in his 3rd year, so the excuses are gone. Get it done or be replaced.

You're going to be an insufferable complainer regardless of who the quarterback is. Why do you follow A&M athletics if you hate them so much?

Johnny Boyziel 2 said:

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Quote:

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@SCAR: Pretty ok start all things considered, but got completely shut out in the 2nd half once the SCAR defense adjusted to him. I'm not really impressed by that.

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It was actually his foot placement tipping the play calls that lost us the game. The loss had nothing to do with Moss going down or the defense forgetting how to tackle.

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Damn SCAR team was lubed up in vasseline, or so it seemed.

How is he complaining or hating on tamu? Reed IS in his third season. Why should he get a leash, especially with the other options on our roster? Are you saying good quarterbacks DO lose four games straight ?

cvenag03 said:

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How is he complaining or hating on tamu? Reed IS in his third season. Why should he get a leash, especially with the other options on our roster? Are you saying good quarterbacks DO lose four games straight ?

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It was his first year of actually seeing the field. Why are we judging him as if he has been playing for 2 or 3 years already? Playing QB is hard. Not everybody can be a Manziel. I think people are being overly critical about him. I think he has what it takes to be a great QB for us so we'll see what he does next season.

At the end of last season, people were saying our defense sucked. That the o-line sucked. That the WR corps sucked. But then put it all on Reed for us losing 4 games in a row.

vander54 said:

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Yeah our yards/carry took a rather big hit after Moss went down.

Plus we didn't really have the home run threat. Moss had 6 games with at least 1 run over 20 yards. Daniels only had 4 and he played in 4 more games than Moss.

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We also couldn't pick up a 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 after Moss went out. We were pretty good at it when he was in there.

I said he is going to be an insufferable complainer regardless of who the quarterback is. You made up the rest on your own. All he does is complain.

Johnny Boyziel 2 said:

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I said he is going to be an insufferable complainer regardless of who the quarterback is. You made up the rest on your own. All he does is complain.

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Hardly the only one…kinda like shooting fish in a barrel…hardly a sporting competition…

Because Reed doesn't fit the pattern shown by good college QBs over the last 5-10 years. His struggles as a 1st year starter mirror mediocre QBs in their 1st years, not the great QBs in their 1st years.

People should stop saying they're "excited" for Reed. They're in love with a potential, not something that's actually happened, which is illogical.

My proposed alternative? Just instead say he needs to improve a lot during this offseason. Wait for the results to come in and evaluate

Emilio Fantastico said:

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vander54 said:

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Yeah our yards/carry took a rather big hit after Moss went down.

Plus we didn't really have the home run threat. Moss had 6 games with at least 1 run over 20 yards. Daniels only had 4 and he played in 4 more games than Moss.

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We also couldn't pick up a 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 after Moss went out. We were pretty good at it when he was in there.

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Yep. Huge difference in our offense with and without Moss.

What's your opinion on Reed allegedly tipping run/pass this season?

I'm not sure it happens all the time. I've only seen a few issolated plays.

It's also more common than i think some on here realise.

Yeah I think I agree. Reed getting locked up against SCAR, then flourishing against Auburn, then going right back to getting locked up against Texas suggests the problem was intermittent.

Paul Pierce Ag said:

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Because Reed doesn't fit the pattern shown by good college QBs over the last 5-10 years. His struggles as a 1st year starter mirror mediocre QBs in their 1st years, not the great QBs in their 1st years.

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And what pattern is that?

Paul Pierce Ag said:

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What's your opinion on Reed allegedly tipping run/pass this season?

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If the coaching staff hasn't made him change, then they probably just don't care.

If you think about it, once he gets into his cadence there is maybe 2-3 seconds where his feet might be giving an indication. The defense has eyes on so many other things presnap, it might not even matter. It's certainly not like opposing coaches in the booth are calling their defense based on the key. If anything, a LB might get a step if he knows it's run, but he doesn't know where the ball is going or whether it's a read, power, counter, etc. so his read key likely remains the same. I would say in most situations the defense is called with a particular goal in mind anyway. For example, nobody cares if his feet are offset on 3rd and 9 because everybody knows we are passing. On a 4th and 1, the defense is going to try and take away run first regardless.

Would I rather him not be doing it? Yes, absolutely. But when I take a step back I'm not sure how much it really impacts things. I also bet he's not the only QB in the country that does something like it.

Jawn Dough said:

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Paul Pierce Ag said:

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Because Reed doesn't fit the pattern shown by good college QBs over the last 5-10 years. His struggles as a 1st year starter mirror mediocre QBs in their 1st years, not the great QBs in their 1st years.

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And what pattern is that?

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He has no clue. He is probably going to ask you to provide some unknown statistics to help prove his point.

He's not the only one and you are correct it may be a problem in some situations but others it won't be and how long he gives the cue is also important. If he stands there for 10+ seconds then it becomes a bigger issue. If he changes for a couple seconds it's not going to have much if any impact.

Johnny Boyziel 2 said:

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Jawn Dough said:

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Paul Pierce Ag said:

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Because Reed doesn't fit the pattern shown by good college QBs over the last 5-10 years. His struggles as a 1st year starter mirror mediocre QBs in their 1st years, not the great QBs in their 1st years.

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And what pattern is that?

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He has no clue. He is probably going to ask you to provide some unknown statistics to help prove his point.

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Alright, let's settle down a little.


For starters, upper-echelon QBs tend to completely dominate lesser opponents (particularly rent-a-wins) in the passing game.

Contrastingly, Reed struggled to push the ball through the air against our rent-a-wins (McNeese St, Bowling Green, and NMST) and other lesser opponents.

He has also particularly struggled when opponents knew he was our QB1 going into the game (with exceptions for @AUB and to a lesser extent, @SCAR), potentially indicating he is a little too easy for opponents to game plan for.

How much was some of those struggles due to the WRs room? Aside from Noah and the occasional Jabre game, who were the threats? WR room is, allegedly, very different. That can help the QB out if we get improved play from the WRs

If we can glean anything from past years, it's that QB1 won't be playing the entire season, either from injury or ineffectiveness.

I wouldn't mind seeing a little bit of O'Neill anyway.

Ok guy, you ready for some sTaTiStIcS? Your posts annoyed me so much that I went through our rushing stats last year and went play-by-by for the South Carolina game so I could illustrate the "rushing efficiency" you have been crying about.




Here you can see that our "rushing efficiency" was 5.27 yards/carry with Moss compared to 4.00 yards/carry WITHOUT Moss. So you tell me, do you think a 27.4% difference in efficiency WITHOUT Moss is appreciably better? Can you shut up now?

DTuba said:

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How much was some of those struggles due to the WRs room? Aside from Noah and the occasional Jabre game, who were the threats? WR room is, allegedly, very different. That can help the QB out if we get improved play from the WRs

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That's why I was specifically talking about performances against our bottom-tier opponents.

In theory, even our least talented scholarship WR or TE should (and do) far outclass the DBs and LBs of FCS McNeese St, thus reducing the question to "can this QB succeed when it's easy?"

Let's all chill out a little here. No need to get so wound up.

I don't think a straight yards / carry metric is gonna give us a fair comparison given the differing levels of competition each version of our team faced.


Let's look at this, throw out the outliers, the best and worst rushing performances (vs McNeese St, vs Texas) and rerun the numbers. I believe we get this:


With Moss (outliers excluded):
300 attempts / 1448 yards / 4.83 yards per carry

Without Moss (outliers excluded):
157 attempts / 662 yards / 4.22 yards per carry

That's about a 14.5% increase (0.61 more yards per carry) with Moss. Not a perfect indicator, but definitely goes to show the drop off against the average team isn't nearly as big as you'd think. Please check my math though

Good lord. What made up metric are you even trying to come up with?

No, I'm not going to check your math. You kept saying no one was showing any evidence in the difference between our rushing attack with Moss vs without him. I presented irrefutable evidence showing that your claim was unequivocally false. Now you are moving the goal posts, and your numbers still show a 14.5% increase. If you asked a coach or anyone with half a brain if they would like a 14.5% increase in a particular stat, they would all say of course and call you an idiot for even asking

A clever way to manipulate the dataremoving the most efficient game lowers Moss's numbers, while removing the worst rushing game without him inflates everyone else's efficiency. What an idiotic, weasel move. Bravo.

Clearly, you aren't arguing in good faith, so I am done wasting time on you.

If you read and understood earlier posts in the thread, you'd see I asked for some opponent-adjusted metrics. You didn't do that in your spreadsheet.

I attempted a poor man's version of that by taking out the outliers, our best and worst games on the ground. After all, is our rushing success against McNeese St more due to Moss or the fact that it was a hapless FCS team? And vice versa for the Texas game.


The original question is this: Was a ~2 foot reduction on average per rush against our average opponent enough to make Reed fail where he might've succeeded?

I kinda doubt it.

Paul Pierce Ag said:

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If you read and understood earlier posts in the thread, you'd see I asked for some opponent-adjusted metrics. You didn't do that in your spreadsheet.

I attempted a poor man's version of that by taking out the outliers, our best and worst games on the ground. After all, is our rushing success against McNeese St more due to Moss or the fact that it was a hapless FCS team? And vice versa for the Texas game.


The original question is this: Was a ~2 foot reduction on average per rush against our average opponent enough to make Reed fail where he might've succeeded?

I kinda doubt it.

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The answer is your metrics that you fumbled bumbled and stumbled all over to attempt to try and prove a point is idiotic and makes your point look worse.

We had a qb who was gaining experience (albeit still being yanked in and out of the lineup) at the same time a stud RB was carrying us then was lost for the season and then had to adjust with a massively less talented backfield with that rb no longer available.

But I welcome more of your ridiculous stats and arguments. Good offseason fodder.

*none of this is an endorsement that Reed is a sure thing heisman candidate. But the eye test is positive and I'm excited about what he can do next year with a full off season as the man in year 2 of a new scheme.

I would like to see O'Neil get a real shot.

I know the run game was far better with Moss in the game because I have eyes and can see. No additional statistics needed.

MagnumLoad said:

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I would like to see O'Neil get a real shot.

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You'll see him get a real shot at another school at some point. Probably the Heisman at OU.

TX_Aggie37 said:

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Paul Pierce Ag said:

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What's your opinion on Reed allegedly tipping run/pass this season?

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If the coaching staff hasn't made him change, then they probably just don't care.

If you think about it, once he gets into his cadence there is maybe 2-3 seconds where his feet might be giving an indication. The defense has eyes on so many other things presnap, it might not even matter. It's certainly not like opposing coaches in the booth are calling their defense based on the key. If anything, a LB might get a step if he knows it's run, but he doesn't know where the ball is going or whether it's a read, power, counter, etc. so his read key likely remains the same. I would say in most situations the defense is called with a particular goal in mind anyway. For example, nobody cares if his feet are offset on 3rd and 9 because everybody knows we are passing. On a 4th and 1, the defense is going to try and take away run first regardless.

Would I rather him not be doing it? Yes, absolutely. But when I take a step back I'm not sure how much it really impacts things. I also bet he's not the only QB in the country that does something like it.

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Based on personal and down and distance, there are a set number of plays a defense has to prepare to defend. It's a huge advantage is the defense can narrow down the list before the snap.

Sparkie said:

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TX_Aggie37 said:

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Paul Pierce Ag said:

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What's your opinion on Reed allegedly tipping run/pass this season?

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If the coaching staff hasn't made him change, then they probably just don't care.

If you think about it, once he gets into his cadence there is maybe 2-3 seconds where his feet might be giving an indication. The defense has eyes on so many other things presnap, it might not even matter. It's certainly not like opposing coaches in the booth are calling their defense based on the key. If anything, a LB might get a step if he knows it's run, but he doesn't know where the ball is going or whether it's a read, power, counter, etc. so his read key likely remains the same. I would say in most situations the defense is called with a particular goal in mind anyway. For example, nobody cares if his feet are offset on 3rd and 9 because everybody knows we are passing. On a 4th and 1, the defense is going to try and take away run first regardless.

Would I rather him not be doing it? Yes, absolutely. But when I take a step back I'm not sure how much it really impacts things. I also bet he's not the only QB in the country that does something like it.

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Based on personal and down and distance, there are a set number of plays a defense has to prepare to defend. It's a huge advantage is the defense can narrow down the list before the snap.

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Sure, to an extent. My point was simply if it's 3rd and 1, and the Mike sees Reed's feet and calls out run run run and alerts the entire defense.... that only goes so far. Is it a zone, power, counter, jet sweep? Will Reed keep it or give it? There's a ton of different variations of "run".

It's not like the defense is called with Reed's feet in mind. Even if they had the time, safeties wouldn't just storm the box and disregard their assignments to sell out for run, simply because what if this is the one time it's not a run. Just about every position off the ball has a read key they are looking at immediately post snap regardless.

I'm not saying it's totally irrelevant and there's no chance it has an impact on the game. It certainly might and I don't like that it's happening. That said, I just don't think it's as big a deal as some folks make it out to be.