They are not a playoff team this year . . . whether they make the playoff or not. Just like we were not a playoff team last year. The truth is, this game doesn't really matter, except that I want to kick the **** out of them. But, even if they win and make the playoff, they lose early in the playoff (just too many flaws). We make it either way and I think we are capable of making a serious run.

Ole Miss and Utah play at 11am on Friday

so we'll know early on if there is a chance for mega-chaos

i.e. 4 or 5 upsets across the country

I think there's a major misunderstanding of the committee. Their purpose isn't to assemble the year's 12 BEST football teams. Their purpose is to maximize interest (and thus revenue potential) for the playoff.

Thats why their criteria is so inconsistent. It's just excuses to conceal their true purpose; "the matchups which will make the most money."

By this unspoken criteria, ND, sips, Ohio St, etc will be excused in whenever feasible. After all, there's rarely a case to be made that 6-12 are legitimate contenders, so it's just bracket fodder anyhow. Might as well maximize profitability. The fact that theoretical 9-3 sip and 11-1 Tceh are being discussed as "in the hunt" evidences the slant.

Get Off My Lawn said:

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I think there's a major misunderstanding of the committee. Their purpose isn't to assemble the year's 12 BEST football teams. Their purpose is to maximize interest (and thus revenue potential) for the playoff.

Thats why their criteria is so inconsistent. It's just excuses to conceal their true purpose; "the matchups which will make the most money."

By this unspoken criteria, ND, sips, Ohio St, etc will be excused in whenever feasible. After all, there's rarely a case to be made that 6-12 are legitimate contenders, so it's just bracket fodder anyhow. Might as well maximize profitability. The fact that theoretical 9-3 sip and 11-1 Tceh are being discussed as "in the hunt" evidences the slant.

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Tech is heavily favored to be an automatic bid per the rules at this point and I've not seen any credible people claim texas is still 'in the hunt' so not sure what your point is.

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Their purpose isn't to assemble the year's 12 BEST football teams. Their purpose is to maximize interest (and thus revenue potential) for the playoff.

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This explains why Alabama got left out over SMU last year and why Texas is most likely out this year

BMX Bandit said:

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Their purpose isn't to assemble the year's 12 BEST football teams. Their purpose is to maximize interest (and thus revenue potential) for the playoff.

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This explains why Alabama got left out over SMU last year and why Texas is most likely out this year

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well, the sips should 8-4 in a couple days, so it should be moot, anyhow.

As to Bama (9-3) vs SMU (11-2); that selection still fits within my assertion. Part of "maximizing interest" is setting up for cross-conference matchups.

Get Off My Lawn said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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Their purpose isn't to assemble the year's 12 BEST football teams. Their purpose is to maximize interest (and thus revenue potential) for the playoff.

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This explains why Alabama got left out over SMU last year and why Texas is most likely out this year

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As to Bama (9-3) vs SMU (11-2); that selection still fits within my assertion. Part of "maximizing interest" is setting up for cross-conference matchups.

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If you think SMU vs Penn State would have drummed up more 'maximum interest' than Bama vs. Penn State, then I'm not even sure why somebody would even want to debate the point with you.

They took two ACC schools, the champ and the best overall record. Both got slated for round 1. Inclusion of both appeased ACC fans and double the chance of keeping them around.

Sure, Bama viewership dwarfs SMU. But that wasn't the comparison. It was Bama vs the ACC.

Get Off My Lawn said:

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They took two ACC schools, the champ and the best overall record. Both got slated for round 1. Inclusion of both appeased ACC fans and double the chance of keeping them around.

Sure, Bama viewership dwarfs SMU. But that wasn't the comparison. It was Bama vs the ACC.

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Whatever magical thinking you want to believe I guess.

My magical thinking is that the committee pursues their personal interest and then justifies it.

Your magical thinking is that this committee altruistic, honest… and bipolar (constantly shifting their criteria).

We can disagree, but where ESPN and Disney are involved; I like my chances that a facade on a profit motive is just par for the course.

Waynehisler2 said:

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They are not a playoff team this year . . . whether they make the playoff or not. Just like we were not a playoff team last year. The truth is, this game doesn't really matter, except that I want to kick the **** out of them. But, even if they win and make the playoff, they lose early in the playoff (just too many flaws). We make it either way and I think we are capable of making a serious run.

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Uh, if we lose, isn't there a good chance we lose our bye?

We will absolutely lose our bye. The committee has been clear that they aren't very impressed by what we've done this season, so we have no margin for error.

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Uh, if we lose, isn't there a good chance we lose our bye?

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A very small chance.

Get Off My Lawn said:

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We can disagree, but where ESPN and Disney are involved; I like my chances that a facade on a profit motive is just par for the course.

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Right. You believe an SMU at large is more 'profitable than an Alabama one.

Magical thinking.

You are correct. And no world does SMU create more interest than Alabama. That game probably gets 3 million more viewers if Alabama is playing. (even more than that if not on TNT)



He set up a nebulous standard of "maximize interest" so that he can justify any team being picked and being able say "see I told you"

Texas is practically eliminated from the playoffs. Even if they beat us to finish with a 9-3 (6-2 SEC) regular season record, they will need some help to make the playoffs. Therefore, Texas is effectively playing a spoiler role to ruin our perfect regular season and prevent us from making our first-ever SEC Championship Game appearance.

Guilty! Of trying to identify the lowest common denominator in their otherwise inextricable product.

The ESPN math is playoff net viewership. That means it's not as simple as comparing #s of Bama fans vs SMU fans. A large number of Bama fans we're already going to be watching / hate-watching their SEC rivals deep into the playoff, anyhow. But once a conference's teams are all eliminated a huge portion of those fans drop out, so the potential of keeping ACC interest for another round or two had higher net viewership potential.

Sparkie said:

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Bison said:

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If Michigan upsets tOSU, Texas is locked out. No way in hell the committee lets them leapfrog. A win over No. 1 is more impressive than a win over No. 3, and 10-2 > 9-3 (both in math and in records).

An unprecedented level of chaos could, in theory, take place, and then we'd be testing the claim that the committee would not punish a team that plays in its CCG and loses.

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Recently, the committee was asked about this. They said the CCG offered another data point. So, they didn't deny that the CCG loser would not be punished by lowering their ranking.

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If BYU gets hammered by Tech again in the B12CCG they're out. Michigan loses to tOUS as expected. Sips just need 1-2 other games to fall there way. They would get a big bump for beating us, but it's not happening without bad turnovers.

This team has four examples of playing desperate teams, three of them on the road.

ND after a season opening loss to Miami.

Auburn coming off being robbed by OU's illegal gimmick play and trying to avoid a second loss before facing Georgia.

LSU in a playoff eliminator.

Missouri in a playoff eliminator.

Doubling down on a moronic theory is a bold move.


There is no world in which SMU results in more interest than Alabama. Quit while you are behind.

The 'horns can't win, even with mega-chaos. They need SUPER-mega chaos with everyone else losing (well, except Ohio State, cuz a Michigan loss helps them far more than a Buckeye loss). This weekend would need:

• Purdue over Indiana
• GT over Georgia
• MSU over Ole Miss
• Tennessee over Vandy
• WVU over tceh
• UCF over BYU
• Washington over Oregon
• Pitt over Miami
• LSU over OU
• Stanford over ND
• Auburn over Bama
• a 'horn win

And then they'd need Ohio State to win the B1G, BYU winning the Big XII, and any team not named Miami winning the ACC. That creates their optimal scenario: only one undefeated team, three mediocre conference champions, and a slew of two-loss teams, with some of them (tceh, Indiana) on losing streaks. Meantime, presumably they'd have a winning streak that includes a recent Top Five victory. In such a field, they might actually pass an eyeballs test.

And then we'd all need eyeball bleach.

Well Miami isnt winning the acc, so they got that going for them

BMX Bandit said:

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You are correct. And no world does SMU create more interest than Alabama. That game probably gets 3 million more viewers if Alabama is playing. (even more than that if not on TNT)



He set up a nebulous standard of "maximize interest" so that he can justify any team being picked and being able say "see I told you"

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At bare minimum, the horns need:

1) Beat A&M
2) One of Ole Miss, Bama, or OU to lose (politically there is no way more than 5 SEC teams get in so somebody in the Georgia, A&M, OU, Ole Miss, Bama group would have to get whacked to make room for horn, and it won't be Georgia or A&M)
3) Ohio State beat Michigan, to keep Michigan from jumping in
4) BYU needs to lose so does not win Big 12 causing a space for two Big 12 teams issue.

If you were a horn fan, what would be your optimism right now on all the above happening? Not a zero percent chance but still quite a gambling parlay to hope for.

Even if all the above happened, there might then be debates such as a 10-2 Miami (if beat Pitt) or a 10-2 Vandy (if beat Tenn) or a 9-3 Bama (if they lost to Auburn) over Texas.

A hypothetical debate fight between a 9-3 Bama and 9-3 Texas would be fascinating and probably give the committee a heartburn, but of course not something I want to see as that requires an A&M loss.

And all that just gets them to at best 12th

To me the most interesting and easiest scenario for the Whorns is they beat us and Ole Miss loses.

In that scenario, I think they've got a leg up on Ole Miss if the SEC gets 5 teams in as they'd have 3 wins against really good opponents to Ole Miss' 1.

They knocked out two time defending champion Georgia from the #1 spot to make room for sippy. They will knock out someone, guaranteed.

Only if kiffn leaves.

And, I think vandy would need to lose to UT as well

They've got the H2H and already own SEC tiebreaker against Vandy. They will jump Vandy with another quality win.

I initially thought Texas needed tons to happen to end up in the playoff too. After looking at the SEC schedules a bit more closely, they definitely need a win against us and some other improbable things to happen. But probably not as much as people think to be in the hunt.

Not if vandy adds another quality win in the road at Tennessee

Back to the original scenario, a Vandy win would only be good for Texas.

Texas would jump Ole Miss and finish the season 4th in the standings should they beat us and Ole Miss loses. They already own the tiebreaker vs, Vandy. I think they'd be a lock for the 10-seed in that scenario and there's no way the committee puts Vandy in front of them.

ATM9000 said:

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Back to the original scenario, a Vandy win would only be good for Texas.

Texas would jump Ole Miss and finish the season 4th in the standings should they beat us and Ole Miss loses. They already own the tiebreaker vs, Vandy. I think they'd be a lock for the 10-seed in that scenario and there's no way the committee puts Vandy in front of them.

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I agree with them potentially jumping Vanderbilt, but lock for Top 10? LOL

STOP SIPPING THE ORANGE TEA!!

Im Gipper said:

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ATM9000 said:

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Back to the original scenario, a Vandy win would only be good for Texas.

Texas would jump Ole Miss and finish the season 4th in the standings should they beat us and Ole Miss loses. They already own the tiebreaker vs, Vandy. I think they'd be a lock for the 10-seed in that scenario and there's no way the committee puts Vandy in front of them.

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I agree with them potentially jumping Vanderbilt, but lock for Top 10? LOL

STOP SIPPING THE ORANGE TEA!!

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Well. Play it out.

I'm not saying it is probable but it's also not crazy improbable. If Ole Miss loses, they win, rest of chalk plays out and they own tiebreakers on OU and Vandy. I think they'd likely own strength or record on Ole Miss in that scenario and suddenly they are 4th in the SEC. That probably is enough to get them in the playoff and over the ACC and other conference champ.

You are completely ignoring that cow has 3 losses, one of which is FL. That 3rd loss eliminates them completely.

Cow could win tomorrow 48-3 and it wouldn't matter, they are not getting in the CFP, period. At best they'd be 13-14 in final CFP poll.

From the SEC you gave aTm, UGA, Ole Miss that are all in, OU and Bama as well if they win their last games.

Yes the ACC sucks and will likley only get 1 team in, 2 max, but the Big 12 is likley to get 2, ND is in as are R B1G teams.

When the CFP expands to 16 teams 9-3 teams will populate the 13-16 slots, but at 12 there is no debate for 9-3 teams to be included.

Regardless, cow will be 8-4 so it won't matter.

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I think they'd be a lock

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That's a touch beyond "possible"

I mean… you ignored the scenario I laid out to get them there. But you know that.