npc said:

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DL is scary. Fletcher is a good running back. They have a kid at WR that should be a HS senior, but is all conference and a TD waiting to happen. Their qb is Carson Beck and that is explicitly how you beat them.

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Change the names and this sounds like A&M

DL is scary. Moss is a good running back. They have a kid at WR that is all conference and a TD waiting to happen. Their qb is Marcel Reed and that is explicitly how you beat them.

Proc92 said:

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Hubert J. Farnsworth said:

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The o-line better be ready to go because Miami likes to blitz. Reed tends to get happy feet when teams get pressure on him. They need to start him off with some quick easy passes to get him into a rhythm.

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Not to worry, Coach k is burning the midnight oil working up a masterclass.

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I laughed!

KrumAggie1992 said:

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I think a mobile qb can hurt um. Watch the smu game. Also Miami has a safety that can be beat in coverage that we need to exploit. Beck can be pressured into bad decisions throwing the ball. See ot vs smu.
I feel like this is a winnable game to move on the osu.

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The same can be said of Marcel. He made some really bad throwing decisions against Texas, South Carolina, Mizz, Miss St, LSU, ND…..

They present some problematic matchups.

Bain vs Crownover

Toney vs Chappell

They are also really fast as a team. They will be the fastest team we've played all year . Their QB can be pressured into mistakes but if we dont get to him then that's not happening. We can't use the strategy we had in Austin of inexplicably only sending 4-5 guys at Arch when Arkansas also did that and got eaten alive. We are going to need to bring a ton of pressure

JROD9398 said:

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I love the overconfidence on this board...you know....the same we had when we were going to thrash t.u. Just assume Miami is every bit as good as Indiana or GA.

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I'm not going to say that A&M will roll miami, but every SEC team (and ND) that A&M played has a better SOS than Miami, whose SOS is 45 (per ESPN).

Miami is 1-0 versus the top 10 (ND) and 2-2 versus the top 30. In comparison, A&M is 1-0 against the top 10 and 5-1 versus the top 30 (Sagarin).

The most challenging road game they played was against #20 (Sagarin) SMU, which they lost 26-20.

Kyle Field will be the toughest road environment they will play in this season.

Take from that what you will, but the way I see it is that Miami is similar talentwise to teams A&M has played this season, but A&M will be a step up in talent versus teams Miami has played this season (if that makes sense).

Gaius Rufus said:

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JROD9398 said:

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I love the overconfidence on this board...you know....the same we had when we were going to thrash t.u. Just assume Miami is every bit as good as Indiana or GA.

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I'm not going to say that A&M will roll miami, but every SEC team (and ND) that A&M played has a better SOS than Miami, whose SOS is 45 (per ESPN).

Miami is 1-0 versus the top 10 (ND) and 2-2 versus the top 30. In comparison, A&M is 1-0 against the top 10 and 5-1 versus the top 30 (Sagarin).

The most challenging road game they played was against #20 (Sagarin) SMU, which they lost 26-20.

Kyle Field will be the toughest road environment they will play in this season.

Take from that what you will, but the way I see it is that Miami is similar talentwise to teams A&M has played this season, but A&M will be a step up in talent versus teams Miami has played this season (if that makes sense).

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Excellent post

Really hot and humid.

Bleh.

In Miami's 2 losses, turnover margin = -2
in their 10 wins, turnover margin = +1.3

They converted 88% of their FG attempts this season.

Average score this season vs their opponents is 34-14.

Synopsis, solid team. Have talent just as good as A&M's. They beat themselves in their 2 losses.

Glad we play them at Kyle but wish it were later in the day.

If the A&M that showed up against the sips or USCe are playing, we are in big trouble. If the Ags that played in the middle of the season show up, we will win a close game

We have a partially interested OC that's concerning , we need Moss back at 100% healthy, and we have to ball control.

UM DL can dominate a LOS and our OL needs to wake up and quit worrying about swinging a chair (they were awful bs tu).

Our DL has to get pressure on Beck or he'll shred the secondary. tu showed how to neutralize Howell (made tu T look all world w doubles) while LBs have to shut down the ran (not confident they can for a whole game).

Early kickoff doesn't help w crowd being rowdy and Miami can keep them quiet.

Will see how prepared the team can be after eff up in Austin and if they can get punched and respond (do they play tight again in a big game and fold like a chair).

Who knows how any team shows up with almost a month off.

Gaius Rufus said:

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JROD9398 said:

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I love the overconfidence on this board...you know....the same we had when we were going to thrash t.u. Just assume Miami is every bit as good as Indiana or GA.

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I'm not going to say that A&M will roll miami, but every SEC team (and ND) that A&M played has a better SOS than Miami, whose SOS is 45 (per ESPN).

Miami is 1-0 versus the top 10 (ND) and 2-2 versus the top 30. In comparison, A&M is 1-0 against the top 10 and 5-1 versus the top 30 (Sagarin).

The most challenging road game they played was against #20 (Sagarin) SMU, which they lost 26-20.

Kyle Field will be the toughest road environment they will play in this season.

Take from that what you will, but the way I see it is that Miami is similar talentwise to teams A&M has played this season, but A&M will be a step up in talent versus teams Miami has played this season (if that makes sense).

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All of this - except Kyle Field - is relevant to the rankings but not to the game.

Why?

It all has to do with who they played instead of how they played. Advanced stats already adjust for quality of opponent. Everything indicates a very close matchup. Ags will have to play significantly better than they did against the sips to win.

So, for example, losing against SMU? Would you say that is relevant?

Quote:

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Tell me about Miami

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I'll defer to the experts on this one:

Nope! The outcome of previous games won't affect this future game.

It would, however, be interesting to break down how SMU was able to win. I believe someone above pointed out the turnover margin to which I would add the penalty differential (Miami 12 for 96 yards versus SMU 4 for 40 yards).

RARay said:

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Nope! The outcome of previous games won't affect this future game.

It would, however, be interesting to break down how SMU was able to win. I believe someone above pointed out the turnover margin to which I would add the penalty differential (Miami 12 for 96 yards versus SMU 4 for 40 yards).

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If the outcome of previous games won't affect this future game, why did you bring up the Ags game against the sips?

Edit: to take this to the extreme, you don't think looking at the teams Tulane or JMU played has any impact on their games against Oregon and ole Miss.

You don't think the fact that miami went 2-2 against top 30 teams means anything.

90ags said:

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We have a partially interested OC that's concerning , we need Moss back at 100% healthy, and we have to ball control.

UM DL can dominate a LOS and our OL needs to wake up and quit worrying about swinging a chair (they were awful bs tu).

Our DL has to get pressure on Beck or he'll shred the secondary. tu showed how to neutralize Howell (made tu T look all world w doubles) while LBs have to shut down the ran (not confident they can for a whole game).

Early kickoff doesn't help w crowd being rowdy and Miami can keep them quiet.

Will see how prepared the team can be after eff up in Austin and if they can get punched and respond (do they play tight again in a big game and fold like a chair).

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I'm most concerned about Klein's foot being out the door. Elko needs to place special attention to what Klein is scheming up.

RARay said:

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Nope! The outcome of previous games won't affect this future game.

It would, however, be interesting to break down how SMU was able to win. I believe someone above pointed out the turnover margin to which I would add the penalty differential (Miami 12 for 96 yards versus SMU 4 for 40 yards).

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Miami rushed for 199 yards and scored 45 points against Bethune-Cookman. Since BCU's record is irrelevant, are you saying that because miami did that against BCU, they will do it against the Ags?

Gaius Rufus said:

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RARay said:

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Nope! The outcome of previous games won't affect this future game.

It would, however, be interesting to break down how SMU was able to win. I believe someone above pointed out the turnover margin to which I would add the penalty differential (Miami 12 for 96 yards versus SMU 4 for 40 yards).

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Miami rushed for 199 yards and scored 45 points against Bethune-Cookman. Since BCU's record is irrelevant, are you saying that because miami did that against BCU, they will do it against the Ags?

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You seem unable to grasp the concept, or are just trolling, so I'll bow out. I hope the Ags win going away, but everything points to a very close game being won by whichever team plays cleaner.

No, I understand what you are saying, which is why I asked the question. What I don't understand is why you aren't trying to defend your logic.

To be clear, I never said the Ags would run roughshod over Miami, but to ignore the fact that their schedule was much weaker than the Ags and, outside of Notre Dame (the first game of the season), Miami hasn't played a.) a team as good as A&M, and b.) in a stadium like Kyle Field, is very strange to me.

You want to ignore their 2-2 record against top 30 teams, and ignore the Ags 5-1 record against top 30 teams for reasons that don't really make sense.

Certainly it is important to look at how a team played in games, but it's also important to look at who they played (hence the reference to their game against BCU). To dismiss strength of schedule out of hand just doesn't make sense.

I hope you come back and explain your position a little better because I would like to understand what you are trying to say.

Fair enough. I'll try.

Wins and losses are very noisy as data points especially in college football where schedules are massively unbalanced and opponents are only played once (during the regular season). Teams win and lose games they shouldn't all the time and for all kinds of reasons that can't be measured, tracked, or accounted for. Trying to extrapolate from wins and losses is fraught and will lead to believing a lot of lies.

A good example of such a lie: 11-0 A&M is one of the three best teams in the nation. They absolutely deserved to be ranked in the top three because records matter in the sporting sense, but actual on-field play showed them as much closer to 7-10 range which was easy to see when looking at advanced stats.

On the subject of advanced stats, you said, "Certainly it is important to look at how a team played in games, but it's also important to look at who they played," and I absolutely agree with that. My point is that is doesn't particularly matter, from an evaluative point of view, who happened to be ahead when the game ended. Advanced stats already adjust for quality of opponent and remove the noise of winning/losing. One doesn't need to further take into account strength of schedule - it's already included.

So, the caveats. We're talking about expectations. How the game actually plays out is anybody's guess. Even the best predictive metrics are only 70-75% accurate, but that's WAY better than any one person's feels. I mean, sometimes Texas A&M loses to Appalachian State.

You have to get Beck off schedule and we have to run the ball.

Otherwise this will look alot like the t.u. game.

Miami is a very similar team to Texas, with the main difference being that Carson Beck can't scramble like Arch Manning, or really at all. He is in his fifth year playing QB in college and has 286 career rushing yards. We need to tee off on him early and often. With time to throw, he will be able to beat us down the field.

They probably have the best defensive line in college football and a good O line. Going to be a very difficult game for us.

Fightin_Aggie said:

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npc said:

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DL is scary. Fletcher is a good running back. They have a kid at WR that should be a HS senior, but is all conference and a TD waiting to happen. Their qb is Carson Beck and that is explicitly how you beat them.

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Change the names and this sounds like A&M

DL is scary. Moss is a good running back. They have a kid at WR that is all conference and a TD waiting to happen. Their qb is Marcel Reed and that is explicitly how you beat them.

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Our DL doesn't scare any good team. We have some quickness off the edge and a head coach who knows how to craft good blitz packages, so we get a lot of sacks. But we do not have the same level of talent on the interior and at SDE that Miami does. They win that comparison easily.

barstoolexpert said:

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They can be schemed against

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Oh no!

VatoLocoAggie said:

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Congrats. We have a favorable bracket.
I believe the tu loss is a silent blessing.
We don't get rust from being off the fiend too long.
Our route is easier than other brackets.
Ohio State didn't play a tough team all season and looked extremely very beatable against Indiana. OSU is a dysfunctional lame duck.

That loss didn't hurt us strategically. It helps us.

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while i agree not playing in the sec championship is a blessing to say that we have the easier side of the bracket is loco. if the bracket holds we will have to beat miami, ohio st, and georgia just to make the finals. that is not the easier side of the bracket.

It's literally the hardest bracket, because the likely champ is in that group.

Gaius Rufus said:

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So, for example, losing against SMU? Would you say that is relevant?

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No more relevant than the horns loss to Florida.

Thanks for the response and breakdown.

If A&M played Miami's schedule and Miami played A&M's schedule, do you believe the team's records would be the same as they are with their original schedules?

Also, when did Elko lose to App State?

I feel like the horns loss to Florida was pretty relevant. That's what kept them out of the playoffs. It also showed (along with their other games) how weak they were on the road.

The outcome of this game will depend entirely on how our offense performs and if we can earn the right to rush the passer.

Our OL is good enough to establish a decent run game, but if we do the thing where we try and force Reed to work through progressions from the pocket we'll be too inconsistent to have a high chance of success. Klein working two jobs doesn't go in our favor here. Need to keep 1 and 7 involved early and often in a variety of ways, and stay committed to the ground game including Reed's legs.

Their OL is also very good, so we have to find a way to make Beck uncomfortable and force him to beat us.

I would have preferred Alabama, but much prefer Miami over ND.

Our DL isn't scary...maybe 1 DE, but he was handled by less experienced tu via doubles.

We need others to step up as Howell will be doubled and DC and Elko need to play off that w more stunts vs bull rushes.