I wouldn't expect more than 40 wins. But there will be entertaining moments.

I think 45 wins or so isn't out of the picture. Not sure that gets us to the playoffs due to the WC being so deep though

I think we're setting up for a year like 2009 where you need 50 wins to make the playoffs in the West.

I think Cuban actually made a good point the other day. When people say the Mavs will be under .500 this year, they are basically dismissing Dirk. He has been injured the past two years, and if he is healthy this year and can get back to his all-star performances, then this team may not be bad.

I'm not saying he will be healthy, or that he will be as good as ever (I get it...he's getting older each year, etc, etc). But, if he does play at his old level, I think this may be a decent team. It will all depend on whether Carlisle can get Ellis to play team ball.

Obviously, we won't be much of a title contender, but after looking at the roster, I am higher on this team than most people. I'm predicting a 5-8 seed and 44-52 wins if Dirk is healthy all year. Hell, We would have probably won 45-50 games last year if Dirk had been healthy all year, and this year's team is much much much better than last year.

I don't comment much on the Mavs these days, but here's my take on the upcoming season. As many questions as assertions, really.

They have a tough time ahead. This is not a good season to be trying to scrap and claw your way into the bottom of the playoffs with a short roster. There are already 8-9 good teams in the West, which means that you have to get to 48 or 50 wins to make the playoffs and play a ton of games against really good teams to do it. 16 divisional games against San Antonio, Memphis, Houston, and New Orleans, then add 3-4 games each against GSW, LAC, and OKC... that's rough.

Nowitzki's minutes and points have gone down for 4 consecutive years. His rebounds and three point percentage have dropped 3 of the last 4. He was hurt last year, but he's also getting older. He's not a guy who is going to fall off the face of the earth due to age, but he's also not going to be a guy who can go out and get you 25-30 every night either.

OK, so bring in Ellis to be the guy who can go out and be the spark plug, manipulate the defense, be the game breaker during the regular season. Makes sense.

I can see the Ellis/Nowitzki pairing work really well... or really poorly. He and Ellis both like that midrange area and take a ton of shots, so one of them may have to change his game. Will Ellis accept reduced attempts or start going to the smarter "3 point or layup" offensive game? Will Nowitzki move inside, and if so can he stand up to a whole season playing primarily in the paint?

Can the Mavericks generate shots in the paint? Ellis takes 43% of his attempts in the paint, Dalembert 67%, Calderon 14%, Marion 71%, Carter 30%, and Nowitzki just 16%. With a weighted average on attempts per game, those players combine to average 38% of attempts from the paint. If Nowitzki's numbers return to where they were when he was healthy, the slightly higher % of attempts in the paint (20%) are offset by the increased number of shots. 38% is substantially lower than even notorious jump shooting teams like the Warriors (43%) and Bucks (47%). That is a big problem.

So is defense... Calderon/Ellis is a terrible defensive back court, and Dalembert/Nowitzki is not a particularly good defensive front court. Not good enough to make up for Calderon/Ellis. Could be rough.

I see uour points on all of the above and could see some of that happening. Im just choosing to look on the bright side and point out we were oretty good with dirk last year and we have alot more talent this year.

For everyone saying that the west is loaded so teams may need 50 wins for an 8 seed, are you sure about that? The west teams all play each other quite a bit, so what if the effect of having so many good teams is that not ad many teams win a ton of games and the 6-8 teams actually need fewer wins to make the playoffs than in years past?

Haven't thought in depth about this to figure it out...just throwing it out there.

That doesn't work in the favor of a team that is unlikely to be among the league's elite. Bubble teams should be hoping for 2 really good teams and a bunch of trash, not 6 great teams and a bunch of solid competition for the last two spots. Dallas would be a 4-6 seed in the East, but I'm having a hard time finding enough wins for them in the West.


Golden State, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Houston, and LAC are definitely better, and if Minnesota is reasonably healthy they look better than Dallas. Assuming Phoenix and Sacramento are completely out of it, that means Dallas has to be better than all but one of Utah, Portland, LAL, Denver, New Orleans, and Memphis (I have MEM this low only because that roster smells like a classic "the sum is greater than the parts", only it was that way under Hollins and now he is gone). That's a tall order.

[This message has been edited by Ulrich (edited 7/24/2013 7:28p).]

Ulrich must really love basketball to be posting novels about lottery teams

This time of year is really rough in non-Olympic years.

Calderon may be a defensive liability but he is going to be a much better PG than Collison was here. Unlike Collison, he'll get the ball to where Carlisle wants it. Likewise, Ellis won't be reluctant to shoot the ball like Mayo was at the end of the season. If anything, Carlisle is going to have to work on reigning him in.

I was excited about our backcourt last year but it just didn't pan out. Mayo look great until Dirk showed up, and then he basically disappeared. The point guard play sucked the whole year. Calderon, Larkin and Mekel is actually a pretty good trio. Likewise Ellis and Harris (assuming we sign him), as well as Carter, makes a pretty good combination at the 2.

With a little bit of luck I think we can sneak into the playoffs.

[This message has been edited by AgBeliever (edited 7/25/2013 10:42a).]

quote:

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That doesn't work in the favor of a team that is unlikely to be among the league's elite. Bubble teams should be hoping for 2 really good teams and a bunch of trash, not 6 great teams and a bunch of solid competition for the last two spots. Dallas would be a 4-6 seed in the East, but I'm having a hard time finding enough wins for them in the West

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Yea, I understand if you don't think Dallas is one of the top 8 teams in the West. I was just commenting on how several people have said that bc the West is so stacked, the 8 seed may need 48-50 wins. This doesn't compute in my opinion. If there are more good teams, that means the lower playoff seeds should be closer to .500, not closer to 50 wins. They will be losing more games, due to the high number of good teams in the West, not winning more games. The more great teams there are, the lower the win totals for the 6-8 teams should be.

For example, like you said, it's not good for a low playoff seed hopefuls like dallas (in terms of number of wins, not seeding) when there are 4-5 really good top teams in the West. I agree, and there are 6-8 solid teams after the top 4-5 teams, which means the win totals for the 6-10 seeds should be pretty low. This is true for all the low playoff seed hopefuls, not just Dallas.

[This message has been edited by mavsfan4ever (edited 7/25/2013 11:19a).]

Realistically, I could see Dallas finishing anywhere from the 6-10 seed, so any prediction in that range is fair.

I wouldn't project the Mavs below 10 unless they tank. If Nowitzki gets injured this would be a pretty decent lineup to tank with though, because you're left with Monta Ellis and some guys.


As far as getting to 48-50 wins... the competition for the 8th spot is stiff, but I still think there is a pretty big gap between the top 7 and everyone else. If that's the case, it only takes one surprise team to have another season like 2008 or 2009 where you needed 49 or 50 wins to get in the playoffs.

[This message has been edited by Ulrich (edited 7/25/2013 3:18p).]

If you go by Vegas Odds, the west looks like this:

1. OKC
2. Hou
3. Clippers, Spurs
5. Golden State
6. Memphis
7. Dallas, Denver, Lakers
10. Minn, New Orleans, Portland
13. Utah

There is a big gap between 7 and 10.

quote:

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Calderon is a defensive liability

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fify

I don't think you can anoint OKC #1 until we see how Westbrook bounces back.

I was just listing the teams in order of their Vegas odds, not anointing anyone #1.

That makes sense... I was too busy taking a dump and didn't read the whole post.

Haha, understandable.

Blair, interesting.

Not a done deal now apparently.

Devin Harris

hell yeah!!!!!!!!

But seriously what the hell are the Mavs doing lol

quote:

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7. Dallas, Denver, Lakers

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Sounds about right. This isn't a bad team. Maybe not an All Star cast, but there is talent for Carlisle to work with. We definitely upgraded the backcourt. I think if Dirk stays healthy this is a better than .500 club that can sneak into the playoffs. I definitely want to see if Crowder and James can improve upon their rookie seasons. Both have potential imo.

1) Calderon, Larkin
2) Ellis, Carter, Harris
3) Marion, Crowder
4) Dirk, Wright
5) Dalembert, Blair, James


[This message has been edited by AgBeliever (edited 8/9/2013 9:20a).]

It comes down to Dirks health again. Last years Mavs team was playing .500%+ with Dirk on the floor. They will again if Dirk is healthy.

L O T T E R Y

Reply number 200

Dallas' absolute ceiling is 7th seed but I don't see them beating the Nuggets or the Timberwolves.

Also they may give up 115ppg starting Calderon, Ellis, and Dirk.

Minnesota is one of those teams that looks okay on paper but they can't stay healthy. 20 games under 500 last year.

True that Dallas won't have a defensive backcourt. However, Ellis and Dirk alone can bring in 50 a night. Could be a lot like the Nash & Van Exel days.

I don't think we have the right head coach for a repeat of the Nash & Van Exel days.

We will be in a lot of zone & Marion will be working his ass off trying to lock down the opponents 1st option.

Dalembert is good at protecting the rim in a zone. Rebounding will be an issue. Dirk should have the opportunity to get his average up close to 10 this season.

If healthy this is easily a playoff team.

Bump for some hilarious reads in here along with some actual insightful posts.

I say we start a new official thread for this year.

can't be official without the stars anyway.

this made me sad



Here's the Vince "redemption" video for the sake of going down memory lane.

Can't wait for opening night.

Well guys, I thought it would take 50 wins to make the playoffs in the West but it turns out that it only took 49. Totally whiffed on that one.