quote:

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The rangers will be on the couch with him watching the playoffs. Yeah, he's def bitter

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So will the Yankees.

the rangers are in the cat bird seat to goto the playoffs.

"I've long said that I don't buy in to the "if you're top 15 you're a #1". It's crap."

I disagree with this line of thinking. I think it's a by-product of many of us growing up watching some of the best pitchers to ever play the game (Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux) in an era that was characterized with inflated offensive production. The production of these "ace" pitchers was so much more dominant than their peers. Today's pitching is much more dynamic. We've had only one duplicate Cy Young winner since 2004 (end of steroid era).

Although he is a well documented dbag, I believe CJ Wilson has been one of the top 10-15 pitchers in baseball over the last four years (4 years is when he was moved back into rotation). His ERA was top 10 in the AL twice and looks to finish up close this year. He had a down year last year that was still solid. He's the only pitcher to have a qualified ERA below 3.00 in the history of The Ballpark in Arlington. He is an "ace".

MLB GM's disagree.

Just what about a 77.5 million dollar contract going to a 31 year old makes you think that?

He'll say he's not an "ace" because he choked in the playoffs.

Nevermind Justin Verlander's and CC Sabathia's 4+ playoff ERA.

quote:

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Just what about a 77.5 million dollar contract going to a 31 year old makes you think that?

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Anibal Sanchez got 5 for 75 last off season...guess he's an ace too?

Look at what Verlander, Kershaw, King, etc, are paid. It's s higher price point for a reason.

They're better pitchers than CJ.

quote:

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He'll say he's not an "ace" because he choked in the playoffs.

Nevermind Justin Verlander's and CC Sabathia's 4+ playoff ERA.

---

Good call. It's actually very true that neither guy has hit a batter in a huge AB during the World Series.

ANYONE would want CJ over those two.

1. You are aware that the first guy you mentioned is leading the AL in ERA right?

2. Big contracts are given to undeserving and lesser deserving players all the time. How does that change the fact that a player you claimed "GM's disagree" received a huge contract?

3. Verlander, Kershaw...Now you have to be a top 2-3 pitcher in baseball to be an ace?

4. Felix Hernandez doesn't belong in a category with those guys.

5. CJ Wilson gets paid more than Clayton Kershaw.

6. You left off Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Josh Beckett in your list of guys that get paid more for a reason.

7. You just got served.

[This message has been edited by hawk1689 (edited 9/27/2013 5:32a).]

quote:

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7. You just got served.

[This message has been edited by hawk1689 (edited 9/27/2013 5:32a).]

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Sorry, but this means you can't be taken seriously.

Ace pitchers are paid like ace pitchers and CJ isn't paid like an ace pitcher.

But yeah...you're smarter than JD and Nolan just for example,, who don't think he's an ace either. Look how they handled Cliff and then look how they handled Ceej and report back, k?

Sincerely,

Just served

Oh and you were right about Kershaw...he hasn't quite gotten his 250 yet. My bad.

When I listen to some of the arguments about pitchers... like an "Ace" pitcher...

I'm often reminded of Justin Smoak. "But he has such a pretty swing." Yeah, I know he has a career .227. He doesn't hit for power nor does he hit for power.

I'm not here to promote CJ Wilson... but in the 4 years he has been a SP... twice he had a better ERA than Verlander.

Career ERA:
3.42 Verlander
3.59 CJ Wilson

It is hard to compare Felix, because of where he plays. But, CJ had a better ERA in 1 of the 4 seasons.

Career ERA on the road:
3.20 Felix
3.55 CJ Wilson

Is CJ better than either of those two? No. But you can't argue he doesn't match up well. Like him or not... the guy can pitch.

oh... and he is smart, too.

corley's list of "aces" heading into 2012:

quote:

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Oh, sorry...here are my aces heading into next year:


Verlander
Halladay
Lee
Kershaw
Lincecum
F.Hernandez
Weaver
Sabathia
Hamels
Lester
Cain
Price

---

And now their league ERA rankings in 2012 / 2013:

Verlander - #2 / #18
Halladay - #43 / had an ERA approaching 7.00 before calling it quits for 2013
Lee - #9 / #6
Kershaw - #1 / #1
Lincecum - #46 (last among NL qualifiers) / #39
Hernandez - #5 / #7
Weaver - #3 / #10
Sabathia - #10 / #35
Hamels - #8 / #28
Lester - #28 / #20
Cain - #4 / #34
Price - #1 / #14


So of your own list of 12 "aces" heading into 2012, only 5 of them managed to end the season with a league ERA ranking higher than "number 3 at best CJ Wilson" in 2012 AND 2013 -- two of CJ's worst years as a starter.

Put another way, your list of 12 "aces":

Verlander - CJ was better in 2013
Halladay - CJ was better in 2012 and 2013
Lee
Kershaw
Lincecum - CJ was better in 2012 and 2013
F.Hernandez
Weaver - CJ was better in 2013*
Sabathia - CJ was better in 2013
Hamels - CJ was better in 2013
Lester - CJ was better in 2012 and 2013
Cain - CJ was better in 2013
Price - CJ was better in 2013*


*assuming no horrible final start tonight



So you've basically made a list of guys that weren't able to be a top shelf starter in consecutive years of 2012 and 2013... but then you make sure to note Anibal Sanchez is no "ace", despite being #2 in ERA this year.

quote:

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But yeah...you're smarter than JD and Nolan just for example,, who don't think he's an ace either. Look how they handled Cliff and then look how they handled Ceej and report back, k?

---

Cliff Lee since JD and Nolan were so smart to let him walk: #9 lERA, #6 lERA
CJ Wilson since JD and Nolan were so smart to let him walk: #17 lERA, #12 lERA

Meanwhile Texas traded 4 of their best prospects for Matt Garza (4.38 in 13 starts as a Ranger) down the stretch.

JD's got brains, no doubt -- but I certainly wouldn't be pointing to them letting Cliff and CJ walk as a great example of it.


[This message has been edited by free_mhayden (edited 9/27/2013 9:54a).]

Per Fangraphs, 2012 and 2013, CJ is:

- 36th in WAR

- 38th in ERA

- 35th in FIP


Meanwhile, leaders in WAR include Verlander, King, Scherzer, Kershaw, Wainwright, Yu, Sale, etc.


http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

I think there's a difference in letting someone "walk" and the way the rangers approached those negotiations, especially Cliff Lee's.

quote:

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Is CJ better than either of those two? No.

---

See.

This isn't rocket science.

quote:

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I think there's a difference in letting someone "walk" and the way the rangers approached those negotiations, especially Cliff Lee's.

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Yeah...it's pretty classic spin by hayden to say the Rangers let Cliff Lee walk. They made multiple offers to him at well over 100 mill and he simply wanted to play in Philly more.

Meanwhile CJ wasn't even given a real offer and it was well known JD and Nolan had no desire to have him back.

Couching the two situations as similar on any level is....desperate?


[This message has been edited by corleoneAg99 (edited 9/27/2013 10:05a).]

quote:

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I think there's a difference in letting someone "walk" and the way the rangers approached those negotiations, especially Cliff Lee's.

---

Regardless of "how the Rangers approached it", to pat them on the back for not signing CJ Wilson is rather foolish when he's putting up Top 15 ERA #'s.

Hamilton? Ok.

But CJ has earned his contract thus far with Anaheim.

And also note that giving much credit to Nolan for any of the recent pitching decisions is rather misplaced.

Nolan pushed for Roy Oswalt.
Nolan didn't think Yu Darvish was worth it.


So... yeah.

You're right. My attempt at humor completely negates the factual information I used to refute your argument. What was I thinking?

Does Jon Daniels opinion now constitute the thinking of all "GM's"? Are you so well connected that you have privileged information as to what the Rangers offered him? CJ said in an interview that the Marlins offered him around $100 million. Does this make him an "ace" now?

Your arguments have all relied on taking in the conjecture of the local media regarding the Rangers free agency pursuits. Here are the facts:
-CJ Wilson's contract is the 14th largest contract for a starting pitcher in terms of total contract value (77.5 million).
-He led his pitching staff in wins, innings pitched, and ERA on two different AL championship teams (one of which came within one pitch of winning the World Series).

Opinions:
-I think that a 77.5 million dollar contract is a lot of money and certainly an indicator of a team's desire to keep other teams from acquiring his services.
-Being the best pitcher on two World Series teams and having continued success over four straight seasons is worthy of being considered an excellent ball player.

quote:

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Regardless of "how the Rangers approached it", to pat them on the back for not signing CJ Wilson is rather foolish when he's putting up Top 15 ERA #'s.

...

But CJ has earned his contract thus far with Anaheim.

---

Signing CJ was more about bringing on a SP.

I think CJ is a locker room problem. Getting rid of A-Rod was a net improvement because everyone elevated their game after he left. Getting rid of CJ was an improvement by creating a better locker room atmosphere.

I think Hamilton was a good teammate and I was pleased how the team handled alcohol in the locker room, etc... but him leaving had to be a burden relief. Rangers had 93 Ws in 2013 and at 88, could finish with 91 Ws. That with a revolving rotation of Minor League (Tepesch, Grimm, Wolf) and mid-season FA pickups (Blackley) to replace Harrison, Ogando, and Perez who were projected in ST to be in the roation. Easily could have had more Ws this season without any substantive replacement for Hamilton.

I think one of the points CJ was trying to deliver in recent statements was that we needed him in the rotation, so that our BP could be fresh late in the season. It was a poor argument and adding him to the rotation, IMO, would have been less valuable even though he could have put up better numbers than Tepesch or Grimm, because of his personality.

CJ is loved in the LAA clubhouse.

http://texags.com/main/forum.reply.asp?topic_id=2351703&forum_id=53

[This message has been edited by corleoneAg99 (edited 9/27/2013 10:40a).]

quote:

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You're right. My attempt at humor completely negates the factual information I used to refute your argument. What was I thinking?

Does Jon Daniels opinion now constitute the thinking of all "GM's"? Are you so well connected that you have privileged information as to what the Rangers offered him? CJ said in an interview that the Marlins offered him around $100 million. Does this make him an "ace" now?

Your arguments have all relied on taking in the conjecture of the local media regarding the Rangers free agency pursuits. Here are the facts:
-CJ Wilson's contract is the 14th largest contract for a starting pitcher in terms of total contract value (77.5 million).
-He led his pitching staff in wins, innings pitched, and ERA on two different AL championship teams (one of which came within one pitch of winning the World Series).

Opinions:
-I think that a 77.5 million dollar contract is a lot of money and certainly an indicator of a team's desire to keep other teams from acquiring his services.
-Being the best pitcher on two World Series teams and having continued success over four straight seasons is worthy of being considered an excellent ball player.

---

- I wouldn't say "attempt at humor"...it was pretty funny.

- Where did I say JD counted as all GM's? Go back and read my statement again...pretty sure I used "example" in there somewhere.

- The Marlins did in fact offer CJ a contract the same season they signed Reyes, Buehrle, Bell, etc, to try and fill a stadium. It worked REALLY well. The Marlins were the only other team besides LAA to make a serious offer.

- No conjecture on my part at all. Use google if you need more proof, I guess.


- I agree CJ is an excellent ball player...he just isn't an ace. Not good in the playoffs. He's a 2/3 going forward.


Glad we closed on the same page.




[This message has been edited by corleoneAg99 (edited 9/27/2013 10:53a).]

quote:

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I think CJ is a locker room problem. Getting rid of A-Rod was a net improvement because everyone elevated their game after he left. Getting rid of CJ was an improvement by creating a better locker room atmosphere.

---

So he was a lockerroom problem in 2010 and 2011 when Texas went to the World Series (and he played a large role in them getting there). So Texas got rid of the lockerroom problem and missed the "real playoffs" in 2012 and look to do the same in 2013?

Josh was the lockerroom problem in 2012 (not in 2010 and 2011 when he was also carrying the team). So Texas got rid of the lockerroom problem and looks to miss the playoffs in 2013.

So Texas is more interested in a fun lockerroom that everyone gets along in over, say, actually winning baseball games?

Truth is when the team wins games, the lockerroom stuff doesn't come into play because A) the team is winning so they are happy and B) the team is winning so the media doesn't try and stir the pot.

quote:

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I think one of the points CJ was trying to deliver in recent statements was that we needed him in the rotation, so that our BP could be fresh late in the season. It was a poor argument and adding him to the rotation, IMO, would have been less valuable even though he could have put up better numbers than Tepesch or Grimm, because of his personality.

---

I'm definitely not defending CJ's recent comments (any Rangers fan knows the starting pitching wasn't the problem this year, it was the hitting), nor his personality (I think most agree he's a dbag).

quote:

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Glad we closed on the same page.

---

The page where pretty much everyone thinks you're an idiot and the stats show you are absolutely wrong, but you continue to fall back on "well JD didn't want him, so he must not be good"?

When hayden goes personal its so much more fun.

Also, would love to hear your thoughts on how Fangraphs is wrong.

Can't wait, little buddy.

I just find it amusing that you are quoting FanGraphs when a month ago you couldn't understand half the stats on the site and were asking for help on figuring it out (then in typical corley fashion, arguing that the stats just must be wrong because you didn't like what they said).

At this point I'm just kicking you when you're down for fun -- I offered up a wager on CJ Wilson's future performance a few seasons ago and you couldn't put your money where your mouth was. I think it was obvious to everyone at that point you didn't have a lot of confidence in any of the crap you were spewing.

So Fangraphs is spewing?


Stop being mad for just a minute and answer the question, little guy.

quote:

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So he was a lockerroom problem in 2010 and 2011 when Texas went to the World Series (and he played a large role in them getting there). So Texas got rid of the lockerroom problem and missed the "real playoffs" in 2012 and look to do the same in 2013?

...

So Texas is more interested in a fun lockerroom that everyone gets along in over, say, actually winning baseball games?

---

That wasn't my point. My point

In 2010, they made the playoffs with 90Ws, but could have made it with 82Ws.

In 2011, they made the playoffs with 96Ws, but could have made it with 87 Ws.

In 2012, they didn't make "the real playoffs" with 93Ws, but would have with 94 Ws, if that W was against Oak.

In 2013, the jury is still out on final W total.

With 2012's W total, they would have made the "real playoffs" in both 2010 and 2011. Even with the 88 Ws they have in 2013, that would have been enough in 2010 and 2011.

Your argument is as irrelevant as it is flawed. After losing CLee (2010), CJWilson (2011) and Hamilton (2012), the team has done little to replace them...

Was it a major problem? No. But at the end of the day... if you think you are a better team moving on... you do. And they did.

I, and others, have answered your questions numerous times. You then just keep changing the question, and as a last resort falling back on the "you must be smarter than JD and Nolan then".

Same thing when you didn't understand UZR and how Beltre's defense hasn't been as great as usual this year. You read the stats, ask how something can be true, people explain how it's true, then you say "that can't be true" over and over again until you start getting antagonistic and people just give up on you and the thread dies.

Rinse. Repeat.

A few years ago you got so frustrated that you kept requesting I meet up for you "for a beer" to discuss things. Like me explaining to you that you are an idiot in person over a beer would somehow register in your head rather than just reading the words on the screen.

If it helps, print out my responses to you and have a buddy read them out loud to you -- maybe that will do the trick?

It's become quite clear to many of that once you have an opinion in your head, it's not going to change -- no matter what statistics show that you are wrong. That sucks for you, as it's likely going to keep you from learning things and actually succeeding in a lot of facets of life, but it is what it is.

I'll leave you be for now -- although I'm sure if CJ Wilson has a rough night (and falls from #12 in ERA to #14), you'll be quick to bump the thread in a sad, misguided attempt to think it shows you weren't moronically wrong on saying "he's a #3 at best", even though it will just further drive the point home.

quote:

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That wasn't my point. My point

In 2010, they made the playoffs with 90Ws, but could have made it with 82Ws.

In 2011, they made the playoffs with 96Ws, but could have made it with 87 Ws.

In 2012, they didn't make "the real playoffs" with 93Ws, but would have with 94 Ws, if that W was against Oak.

In 2013, the jury is still out on final W total.

With 2012's W total, they would have made the "real playoffs" in both 2010 and 2011. Even with the 88 Ws they have in 2013, that would have been enough in 2010 and 2011.

Your argument is as irrelevant as it is flawed. After losing CLee (2010), CJWilson (2011) and Hamilton (2012), the team has done little to replace them...

Was it a major problem? No. But at the end of the day... if you think you are a better team moving on... you do. And they did.

---

I don't disagree with that, I just think it's a flawed assumption that somehow these guys were "clubhouse cancers" and ridding yourselves of them made you a better team.... They weren't "clubhouse cancers" in 2010 and 2011 when they were carrying the team.

If you feel their production wouldn't hold up to what the $$$ would require (like it appears Hamilton wont), then you let them walk. But this idea that their personalities are playing some large role in the win totals these teams are putting up is bunk. AJ Pierzysnki is widely considered one of the biggest *******s in the entire league. Mike Napoli wasn't well liked by any Rangers before he came here.

It's about production, not how happy the clubhouse is. The clubhouse is happy when the team is winning, the clubhouse is unhappy when the team is losing.

Yeah but you won't answer the question, hayden.

Is Fangraphs wrong?

They have CJ in the 30's in WAR yet you contend he's a top 15 pitcher.

It's like you don't want to answer the question because you know you're wrong.

Again.

I don't disagree winning\losing raises\lowers tolerance for doosch-baggery.

AJP and Napoli, AFAIK, have always been considered great clubhouse guys by their teammates, whether fans or opposing teams like them or not.

2010 is a difficult year, because that was when the team really first came together.

Hamilton was called out by at least one teammate and many others mentioned "You just didn't know which Hamilton was going to show up, when you got to the locker room." His drop in Oak most assuredly cost them "the real playoffs." Was all that from dropping tobacco or too much caffeine?! I don't know, but I wonder if there isn't a little less distraction from guys like Kinsler, even if his performance isn't dramatically better.

Hamilton 2012 OPS by month:

APR: 1.182 OPS
MAY: 1.186 OPS
JUN: 0.754 OPS
JUL: 0.607 OPS
AUG: 0.943 OPS
SEP: 0.948 OPS

So some of the clubhouse was frustrated because they didn't know if they'd get 950+ OPS Josh or 600-750 OPS Josh.

Is some of the clubhouse frustrated when Beltre puts up these monthly splits?

APR: 0.733 OPS
MAY: 1.026 OPS
JUN: 0.708 OPS
JUL: 1.084 OPS
AUG: 1.056 OPS
SEP: 0.661 OPS

quote:

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Hamilton 2012 OPS by month:

APR: 1.182 OPS
MAY: 1.186 OPS
JUN: 0.754 OPS
JUL: 0.607 OPS
AUG: 0.943 OPS
SEP: 0.948 OPS

So some of the clubhouse was frustrated because they didn't know if they'd get 950+ OPS Josh or 600-750 OPS Josh.

Is some of the clubhouse frustrated when Beltre puts up these monthly splits?

APR: 0.733 OPS
MAY: 1.026 OPS
JUN: 0.708 OPS
JUL: 1.084 OPS
AUG: 1.056 OPS
SEP: 0.661 OPS

---

to be fair, I am not sure Beltre is blaming it on caffeine/sunglasses/dipping ect. God will let me hit when god wants me to hit.

No doubt -- which is why fans support Beltre and they abandoned Josh.

I was just pointing out that the "impact on the clubhouse" is negligible. When Hamilton was beasting and winning games for Texas all was well. When he was slumping and blaming everything under the sun (well, the sun too), his personality was hurting the clubhouse and impact the W/L column?

I certainly don't want Josh Hamilton's contract, but that clubhosue cancer that we were happy to get rid of put up a 930 OPS for us last year, including a 943 OPS August and a 948 OPS September.

If we had that clubhouse cancer putting up those #'s for us this year we'd have won the division.

Again, glad we don't have that lol contract, but the whole "happy clubhouse" thing is a baseball myth.

quote:

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"I've long said that I don't buy in to the "if you're top 15 you're a #1". It's crap."

I disagree with this line of thinking. I think it's a by-product of many of us growing up watching some of the best pitchers to ever play the game (Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux) in an era that was characterized with inflated offensive production. The production of these "ace" pitchers was so much more dominant than their peers. Today's pitching is much more dynamic. We've had only one duplicate Cy Young winner since 2004 (end of steroid era).

Although he is a well documented dbag, I believe CJ Wilson has been one of the top 10-15 pitchers in baseball over the last four years (4 years is when he was moved back into rotation). His ERA was top 10 in the AL twice and looks to finish up close this year. He had a down year last year that was still solid. He's the only pitcher to have a qualified ERA below 3.00 in the history of The Ballpark in Arlington. He is an "ace".

---

quote:

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He'll say he's not an "ace" because he choked in the playoffs.

Nevermind Justin Verlander's and CC Sabathia's 4+ playoff ERA.

---

I'll say he's not an "ace" because I believe there are very, very, very few "aces", very much like there aren't 30 quarterbacks in the NFL you can win with. There aren't 15 guys in every league that I'd truly, without reservation, want to plan on being, in Ron Washington speak, my "number one best pitcher" over a multi-year period.

There are only a handful of them, and there are only a handful of teams that have shown to be consistent post-season contenders. The lists converge pretty well, too. (Detroit- Verlander, St. Louis- Wainwright, Giants- Cain, Phillies- Take your pick , etc...)

The Rangers have been up there, and CJ was a big part of 2 of those seasons. However, I think they have been vindicated so far in their decision that CJ wasn't a long term #1 horse on the level of those guys I mentioned above.

Verlander and CC are great examples that there are even fewer guys that can, after a 162 game season, go out and consistently dominate post-season quality hitters.

Verlander, and I'd say Sabathia, albeit to a lesser extent, are on a different level than CJ because they perform pretty consistently on a higher level than CJ does, and that, assuming the rest of your roster isn't trash, is going to give you more consistent opportunities and eventually, they'll put it together in the post-season.



[This message has been edited by TXAggie2011 (edited 9/27/2013 1:45p).]