Scheppers will get the 8th...Nathan the 9th...GENTRY IS THE MAN!!!

Will the Cuban bunt now???

Craigers says eff the bunt!

the Cuban will bunt now...but he should hit away

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So if the guy who has a very hard time hitting lefties doesn't get a hit, we move to 44.6%, but you're mad that the manager had him bunt and we moved to 46.4%?

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Martin has around a 24% chance of getting the runners to 2nd (or further) without giving up an out at all.

You don't give up a 2% chance of win probability to avoid that chance.

Oh, and Gentry just stole 2nd base in the same situation. Didn't even have to waste the out there.

Steal third

alright...Kinsler...DON'T FAIL ME NOW!!!

Oh boy. Please tell me all the percentages now of bunting not bunting 2nd 3rd one out no out.

I'm sooo very interested!

Just dont pop up Ian

Oh, and phantom cam is greatness.

[This message has been edited by American Nomad (edited 9/29/2013 4:26p).]

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Its amazing how guys who have workloads one fourth of another's typically have the better statistics, isn't it?

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Which is why when the two pitcher's #'s are pretty comparable, you tend to side with the guy who has done it 4 times as often.

You know, the guy who is Top 5 in league ERA and is a Cy Young candidate.



It's a "gut" move... and that is part of managing no doubt... But the thing is when you're "gut" is wrong over and over and over again, at some point you have to realize that going with your gut is a poor decision.

Put a much simpler way: Would you rather the 2013 Texas Rangers season come down to Yu Darvish or Neal Cotts/Robbie Ross?

Yup

Tanner for the 8th and bring back darvis to close...I'm serious.

fack yeah!!!

Kins

WTG Bear Jew!

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Oh boy. Please tell me all the percentages now of bunting not bunting 2nd 3rd one out no out.

I'm sooo very interested!

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It's about the same either way -- 83%. So comes down to matchups.

Ian

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Martin has around a 24% chance of getting the runners to 2nd (or further) without giving up an out at all.

You don't give up a 2% chance of win probability to avoid that chance.

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Why not? Why not guarantee that you save yourself a 2% chance to win and see if the top of your lineup can put the ball somewhere on the outfield grass and score a run?

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Oh, and Gentry just stole 2nd base in the same situation. Didn't even have to waste the out there.

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I think we'd all agree a stolen base would have been great.

Just updating the Cowboys game for those that aren't flipping.

SD just kicked a FG to take a 10 - 7 lead.

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Why not? Why not guarantee that you save yourself a 2% chance to win and see if the top of your lineup can put the ball somewhere on the outfield grass and score a run?

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Martin doesn't hit 0.100 against lefties... He's certainly not great, but 23-24% isn't hopeless.

And with speed at 1st and at home, little double play chance. And with speed at 1st a chance to steal. And Vargas had just walked someone.

And what is the likely worst case scenario if you let him swing away? Double play with Gentry/Leonys? Statistically happens less than 1% of the time.

So a K is likely your worst case by letting him swing away.

And what happened? A bunt-double-play.

Not only did the %'s not back it up, but the actual result ended up being far worse than anyone could have actually predicted.

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Its amazing how guys who have workloads one fourth of another's typically have the better statistics, isn't it?

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Which is why when the two pitcher's #'s are pretty comparable, you tend to side with the guy who has done it 4 times as often.

You know, the guy who is Top 5 in league ERA and is a Cy Young candidate.

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I wouldn't say 20 points in the BA and 150 points in the OPS aren't all that similar. To put it in broad terms, that'd be akin to rolling out the Astros' pitching staff all season rather than the Rangers' pitching staff.

If you want Ron, or any manager to play purely by the percentages, they get their guys out of the game after the lineup has turned over 2 or 3 times. It doesn't happen because managers don't have unlimited bullpens and they couldn't make it through 162 games doing that.

As it is, there is no tomorrow, and you have to look at the game differently. You play for today, and hope you'll have the chance to do it all over again tomorrow.

I've said several times I'm not sure I would have done it, but I get it. Its a toss up.

is Knoxie getting let go...hahaha...he's acting like it's his last broadcast...hahaha

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If you want Ron, or any manager to play purely by the percentages, they get their guys out of the game after the lineup has turned over 2 or 3 times. It doesn't happen because managers don't have unlimited bullpens and they couldn't make it through 162 games doing that.

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Except Yu actually has a 0.196 BAA the 3rd time through the lineup.

It's hard to apply the "you should pull him because most pitchers struggle the 3rd time through the lineup" theory when the pitcher in question has still been absolutely dominant the 3rd time through the lineup.

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Its a toss up.

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Robbie Ross - 0.259 OBA
Yu Darvish "3rd time through the lineup" - 0.196 OBA


You can call it a toss up, but it's not.

This part of the lineup is a killer.

does nothing come without stress?!!!

Monster DP

GIDP

Nice double play.

But eff the statistics and Ron's constant managing blunders.

4 OUTS AWAY FROM GAME 163 @ THE BALLPARK.

3 more facking outs

Tanner

3 outs

3 more

3 OUTS