Yankees, Cubs, DBacks, Dodgers and White Sox are only 5 teams to make formal bid per Nikkan Sports.

Considering where his price tag is gonna end up, I'm ok with that

Yeah. Very curious as to where this one lands. Yu was a friggin steal, if something that cost over $100 mill is allowed to be classified as such. Tanaka owes him a cut.

From what I can find those five so far, but no one is out yet.

they paid 111M for darvish. So tanaka seems to be in the ballpark

Difference is Yu is a #1 and potential cy young winner. Tanaka is likely a #3 if things pan out.

Teams getting excited and overpaying because they think they are getting Yu 2.0.

Rumor is the Cubs are at $160 + $20 posting fee for 8 years. 6 year offers in the $130-140 range after the posting fee. That's a pretty big "ballpark" and what should be an inferior pitcher.

Tanaka owes a lot more to the new posting system than to Yu. Also, Iwakuma's success doesn't hurt (combined with Yu).

I'd say it's about 50-50. New posting system will net him about $30 more. Yu 2.0 jizzing will be worth another $30 or so.

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Difference is Yu is a #1 and potential cy young winner. Tanaka is likely a #3 if things pan out.

Teams getting excited and overpaying because they think they are getting Yu 2.0.

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The Rangers appear to have gotten in right on Yu.

None of these guys are guarantees.

However, I don't know how you can possibly say Tanaka isn't looking at anything better than a middle of the road pitcher when he's been as dominant, he's on the most dominant run Japan has seen in many, many years if ever at all, he's got a very solid build, and a low to mid 90s fastball with at least 2 high quality secondary pitches.

I realize he's not the strikeout guy Yu is, he doesn't have to or need to be, but he's still a 9k/game a guy in Japan.

I think whoever followed a very successful Japanese pitcher was going to get a $$$ boost. Confidence goes up and it takes more $$$ to play the game. Think of it this way- an American kid with Darvish's ability wouldn't be sitting on a 6 year, $56 (or even $110 million) contract as a mid-20 year old.

Of course, salaries are going up quickly in general, too. The Rangers just farted out more money on Shin Shoo Choo than they did Yu Darvish.

From what I've read, his fastball is very ordinary. Usually 90-91 with nothing special movement-wise. His bread and butter is the splitter. That kind of pitch can definitely overwhelm the average Japanese league hitter. MLB hitters that lay off of it at a much higher rate will pose a much bigger challenge. I think he'll be a good pitcher, but a #2-3 type.

As an aside, a 6-8 year deal for a splitter pitcher would make me a bit nervous, just from an arm health standpoint.

[This message has been edited by DannyDuberstein (edited 1/19/2014 7:59p).]

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Yu 2.0 jizzing will be worth another $30 or so.

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There may be some "jizzing", but if Yu followed guys that were as successful as Darvish and Iwakuma have been, he would have made more money, too.

I'm not sure its so much thinking he's going to be Yu Darvish, so much as its a different market.

Confidence is up, as it should be. More confidence means bigger contracts.

[This message has been edited by TheAngelFlight (edited 1/19/2014 11:10a).]

Still hard to guess, IMO. Looks like 6yr/$120M + $20M.

With as much as pitchers have been going $15M...

Also, if the Rangers didn't have a good feel to be in... making an unaccepted offer shows their hand for Garza\Santana. If you've offered Tanaka $20M... the agent will argue at least Garza and Santana have MLB experience.

I think it bumps the price of the FA SPs... especially for whomever doesn't get him.

If the Yanks don't get Tanaka, they need someone...BAD...

Kuroda (38): 32GS\3.31\1.16 <- Best pitcher
Sabathia (33): 32GS\4.78\1.37 <- Pedestrian
Nova (27): 20GS\3.10\1.128 <- "Could" be an innings eater.
Phelps (27): 12GS\4.98\1.42 <- He isn't a young promising pitcher anymore.
Pineda (25): DNP <- Hasn't pitched in 2 seasons (2011 was last)

Because the Yanks are in need of pitching the most... I think if the Yanks get Tanaka, it could diminish Garza\Santana.

ESPN just reported 7 yr deal to the Yanks.

$155MM

I wanted Tanaka, but that is pretty insane.

My god that's so much money

dammit

$22m/yr for Tanaka.

$18m/yr for Darvish.

It's a 7 year contract with opt out after year 4, so it's essentially 88M for 4 years + posting fee.

I guess that makes it better to swallow? I heard the cubs offered something very similar, too.

Better to swallow for whom?

The opt out only benefits the player. It basically sticks the Yankees with all the downside if he sucks or his arm falls off.

If he's good, he'll opt out and get paid again.

I understand the Yankees have $$$ out the wazoo, but this contract puts him in Top 5 pitcher contract territory before ever throwing a pitch in the big leagues.

From LSB:

To put Tanaka's contract in perspective
Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)

Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19)

Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19)

Tanaka Masahiro $175,000,000 (2014-20) * posting fee included

CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)

Zack Greinke, $147,000,000 (2013-18)

Cole Hamels, $144,000,000 (2013-18)

Kershaw and Tanaka sure make Fekix look like a bargain.

So based on the math others tried to use for Darvish...

88+20=108/4 => $27M
155+20=175/7 => $25M

I didn't include the Posting Fee for Darvish and don't believe it should be included for Tanaka.... but wanted to make sure everyone is using the same frame of reference.

Darvish was\is about $10M/yr.

I think the price the Yanks shoveled out is indicative of: 1) Desperation for SP, 2) Desperation for fans\attendance, 3) Desperation of 2014 success, 4) their inability to get under the cap, even without A-Rod.

Beltran (36: 3yr-$15M per), McCann (29: 5yr-$17M per), Ellsbury (30: 7yr-$21M per) and Tanaka (25: 4yr-$22M per)... $75M/yr for 4 players added for at least the next 3 years.

They've gone through the roof on the cap.

Yeah yeah... I know... the Rangers have bad contracts, too - Choo & Fielder... dumping Kinz.

I think an opt-out after 4 years could be good if he sucks... however, as we saw with Darvish... Tanaka will likely need one year to adjust... ups and downs... 2015 will be the measure on if he was worth it. Personally, I have no idea what to expect...

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Better to swallow for whom?

The opt out only benefits the player. It basically sticks the Yankees with all the downside if he sucks or his arm falls off.

If he's good, he'll opt out and get paid again.

I understand the Yankees have $$$ out the wazoo, but this contract puts him in Top 5 pitcher contract territory before ever throwing a pitch in the big leagues.

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for fans. I think it's way too much money

The market now versus two years ago is completely different. I don't get the Tanaka/Yu comparisons.

Wow!!!! $25-27MM per year. Holy moly.

The market is different from 2 years ago, but +50% different for what should be an inferior pitcher is a big leap.

Is that a team option, player option, or mutual option? I'm assuming player.

[This message has been edited by DannyDuberstein (edited 1/22/2014 9:32a).]

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I don't get the Tanaka/Yu comparisons.

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Even ignoring the $$$ market -- the comparisons come because they are/were both high profile pitchers that received mega contracts before ever throwing a pitch in the big leagues.

OR

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I don't get the Tanaka/Yu comparisons.

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Seriously?

Two SPs both coming from Japan, both considered at the top of what Japan offers.

Both coming to MLB having never pitched in a MLB organization.

One making $22M/yr the other getting $10M/yr.

The ONLY difference is the contract structuring process.

Risk at $10M/yr is FAR less than $22M/yr. When Darvish was signed... $15M was the going price of SPs with MLB experience who were considered pretty good. As Tanaka signs... $22M/yr was the going price for only the very highest elite and accomplished SPs IN MLB.

Yes, the market has changed.

Yes, the process for Japanese players has changed heavily in favor of the player, and away from MLB teams and Japanese teams.

Good for Tanaka. #FullJerryMcGuire

The only person that should consider Yu is $10 mil/year is Yu. You think if the posting system was the same as the old Yankees would be out $40 mil more for Tanaka?

Look at the pitchers mhayden listed, every one signed after Yu except for CC. Totally different market.

That said, Yu and others that signed two years ago are looking like huge bargains.

How long did Yu have left with his team in Japan before he could have left for free?

Counting the posting fee amortization, Yu was the #20 paid starting pitcher in 2012. If you straight-lined his entire deal which inflates the 2012 value a great deal, he would have been #10 (although if you straightlined everyone else too, he probably drops back down toward #20). Tanaka will be right up near the very top in 2014.

[This message has been edited by DannyDuberstein (edited 1/22/2014 9:52a).]

Darvish signed and was paid for the '12. His salary was low ($5.5M) compared to the rest of his yearly average ($10M).

Let's put him at $10M in 2012, for grins.

Salaries in 2012:
$18.5M Felix
$20.0M Verlander
$23.0M Sabathia
$15.0M Hamels
$13.5M Greinke

While those contracts were larger and signed after Darvish signed... they ALL made more than Darvish, prior to Darvish signing.

$07.5M Kershaw <- I believe this was either an Arb or Serf year. Kershaw made $11M in 2013, another Arb year.

I've said the process has changed... it does benefit the players.

It is STILL crazy money for a guy that could end up being a mid-rotation guy. The success of Darvish puts a positive view on Tanaka and helped him tremendously.

So, next step...

First Garza
then Santana
then Jimenez

How much do these guys go for, now that Tanaka has signed for so much ca$h.

My guesses (purely guesses):

Garza (29) - 4yr/$17M per, option for 5th

Santana (30) - 4yr/$18M per

Jimenez (29) - 3yr/$15M per, option for 4th

Capuano (34) - 2yr/$12M per

I can't see anything less than 3yr/$45M for a pitcher with some youth and MLB experience.

[This message has been edited by DallasAg 94 (edited 1/22/2014 10:38a).]

AJ Burnett/Derek Lowe/ John Lackey set the floor for average pitchers to get monster deals back in 2009. Ever since then, it's been an abomination. The only reason why Yu makes so little is because the rangers paid 51M up front. That would give the rangers HUGE leverage to make the contract a lot smaller.

Now, the leverage is to the players, as 20M is peanuts for any team to pay, especially over 2 years