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/Says the guy who beat the drum that LAAA's bad contracts would never catch up to them because of their TV deal.

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I actually said that LAAA's bad contracts would never catch up with them as long as Moreno is willing to throw money at the payroll -- though the point is similar.

As things stand right now, Angels will walk into the All Star Break one game back of the best record in all of baseball. Yeah, those bad contracts are sure are hindering them :/

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Having said that... $145-150M may be the soft cap target. I could see that being where they are next season. They have $109M committed to 9 players, with 2 options (Rios would add $12.5M and Soria would add %6.5M, based on buyout).

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Texas payroll this year is $15m more than it has ever been in the history of the franchise. They just took on a mega-contract with Prince Fielder, another mega-contract with Choo, and if they are wanting to wrap things up before he's on the brink of free agency -- will have to make a mega-contract offer to Darvish sometime before the 2016 offseason.

No one significant is coming off the books for 2015, save for maybe whatever Texas gets from insurance on Harrison.

Texas isn't spending $160m+ on the 2015 roster. You bump payroll like that when you feel like you can make a legitimate run at a title -- simply no way to look at what will likely be the 2015 roster and think it's one player away from being a WS contender.

Yeah, things seem to be working out alright for LAAA so far. The Rangers will clear some salary with Rios and Soria, which I anticipate happening in the next few weeks. That said, I'm on board with keeping their draft picks and powder dry this offseason while regrouping. If things come together in the first half of 2015 with Holland, Fielder, Profar, etc back, you can make moves midseason. In he meantime, that high #2 goes toward restocking the farm and you can be more strategic by having some time to see where you really need to spend.

I'd only spend $ if I can move Elvis.

[This message has been edited by DannyDuberstein (edited 7/13/2014 5:59p).]

Gallo named MVP of Futures Game.

Gallo hit a 2 run home run and struck out twice. Hope we see him next season or at least by '16.

Tough to separate talk strategy from reality, but JD said in the interview that payroll would stay right around where it is and that Texas needs 2 more starting pitchers.

Not surprising based on attendance.

But, isn't that what we've established?

Darvish-Holland - ? - ? - Tepesch

Perez won't be much of a contributor in 2015, IMO.
Harrison won't pitch in MLB, IMO.

Regarding payroll...
We'll get relief from Harrison. Maybe $8-10M? He is owed $13.2M for each of the next 3 yrs.
We get $6M/yr from '16-20 for Fielder.

The rest will hinge on moving pieces like Soria, Rios and Andrus, IMO.

We may or may not be able to get a top FA SP, but there are several worth considering that will be available. $10M in 2015, $16M+ in 2016.

I think even more important will be to establish this team is not being rebuilt, but retooled.

Even if we pickup $4M of Andrus... if we could move that $10M and replace with Profar, that would be HUGE.

Say $10M from Andrus, $10 from Harrison and $6M from Fielder, we could go after Scherzer for $20M\2015, $26M\2016...

Darvish-Scherzer-Holland-Tepesch-Anyone

I'm OK with Tepesch as a #5. Would love to nab Scherezer, but as I mentioned before -- the next legitimate big time free agent pitcher Texas signs will basically be the first.

Very little pop in that lineup, season would ultimately hinge on whether Holland and Fielder can come back and perform at their peak levels.

Big concern I have is that the trade value of Cotts and Frasor taking a hit because of their overuse and resulting poor performance. Who wants to pay much for a lefty reliever who has already thrown all of his bullets and now has an empty chamber?

This is basically what happened with Uehara in 2011. He pitched a ton for Balt, then wasn't very effective late in the season for Tex.

I'm willing to trade Fielder for Idina Menzel straight up if the Twins are willing

I think they should be buyers, honestly. I'm not trading anyone other than Soria (or any of the closers) unless the offers are too good. Gallo can spell Beltre and get him some DH days to extend his career. Can't trade Profar this year as he has no value. Verdict is out on him and Martin and Odor.

Next year, you get back Holland and Perez. Rios and Beltre have been good. You have to think Choo rebounds. If Prince comes back and can play, this team can be good in 2015 without changing much.

Before Scherzer's Cy Young season...wasn't he as inconsistent as Holland??? Brilliant one night...enigma the next?

There has been talk apparently, to shut Choo down.

JD indicated they have tossed around the idea, but not approached him.

Frasor, Cotts and Soto are FAs. I'm guessing Soto has no value.

Perez will not throw rehab, I suspect until July 2015. He'll provide you nothing in 2015.

Trading Andrus is addition by subtraction.

Soto no value? How about his mugshot?





[This message has been edited by Ryno01 (edited 7/15/2014 11:11p).]

Separated at birth?

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Trading Andrus is addition by subtraction.

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I'd be curious to go back and read the thread about his contract.

It has begun. Frasor to the Royals for some dude named patton.

Found this article on Patton from May...

http://kingsofkauffman.com/2014/05/25/spencer-patton-deserves-chance-royals/

Someone explain this Frasor trade to me because on the surface, it doesn't make much sense. Patton is sporting a +4 ERA in AAA and is 26. Is it just because Frasor was to be a FA after this year was over?

[This message has been edited by vette (edited 7/16/2014 1:34p).]

Extremely high K-rate, and his #'s are skewed by a couple of god-awful outings in June.

Misses a ton of bats, but when he does find a bat it usually leaves the park -- guessing Texas thinks that an area where they have a decent chance of making a correction.

To be fair, Frasor is sporting a 1.38 WHIP... His ERA isn't bad, but he's letting over 35% of his inherited runners score... Basically he's a guy that will be a free agent in 3 months that has an ERA that that looks a lot better than he's thrown.

He was also a college kid, so his age may seem a bit high.

Having the success we've had and the negative perception of some of our youngsters, plays into it.

All-in-all... I'm guessing it is moving some money and getting more arm depth at AAA.

It will be an interesting addition. Frasor was easiest to trade to get things rolling. I thought Cotts would be 1st because the interest would be highest, being a Lefty.

This trade, IMO, basically is like putting the "OPEN" sign out letting other GMs know we are "Open" for the trade season.

Jason Frasor's are a dime-a-dozen, so they got about what I expected for him. Patton's K rate is definitely interesting, but there are clearly some issues, as you'd expect.

Pena DFA'ed.

JPA and Soto activated. Hopefully Soto gets a couple ABs... and some interest. Rangers could use a couple gloves and a bag of balls.

I'd like to see them dump the rest of his salary.

Kemp would be interesting.

$21M for each of the next 5 years (not counting 2014).

HUGE risk. His numbers are down, so you'd have to wonder if it would be another Fielder concern with ability to return to production after injury.

If HanRam ends up going elsewhere, do you look at Andrus vs Kemp in the offseason? Whatever the peripheral... you get rid of Andrus' contract at short, replacing with Profar\Sardinas.

If you've traded Rios, then you have the OF solved, as well.

I know this is fantasy, but still interesting.

If it's me - I would be shopping Darvish and Choo. Would listen to offers on Beltre or Rios. Time to rebuild, and these guys are expensive. I think someone in contention is going to want Beltre really bad, and at 35, I would like to see him have another shot at WS.

Choo has been a waste of money this year, and I would think Odor could grow into a lead off. Hell of a lot cheaper than $90K per game, and not impressed with his LF play.

Darvish is probably stuck as a .500 pitcher here, plus looming FA. Throws too many pitches in most innings. I want my ace to be much more efficient.

Rios is very solid, but over priced. I do like him in RF.

No way I move any youth this year [Profar/Odor] that have options remaining.

Darvish is the best value in baseball!

Sorry - Best value in Baseball is Mike Trout


Now Darvish may be the Rangers best value, but not for long. 1 more year and he is gone or ubber expensive. Just don't see Rangers turning the corner next year with. IMO - Wash has wasted the best opportunities with this team, and now its retool or else because there is no way all these players on the DL are coming back in the next 18 months at 100%. History does not bear it out [See Lewis/Harrison/Ogando/Feliz now vs 3 years ago]. JD has simply run his payroll to one of the highest in BB, and putting the worst product on the field. Payroll purge is a simple prediction, which is the thread as I recall.

I say Darvish is gone this year. Too much value in one player for a team that need to find some bargains to offseet $40M of wasted money last offseason.

I'm starting to think the fire sale may be the better option.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fg-on-fox-maybe-its-time-for-texas-to-rebuild/


Interesting read from Dave Cameron on Fangraphs about this very subject...to tear down or not tear down?

BaD Radio had him on last week to discuss it and I thought one part of his reasoning was pretty debateable. He was asked, since he's a Mariner's guy, whether or not he ever advocated that the Mariner's sell off King when they hit rock bottom and he said no because of the state of the Seattle fan base. They had been bad for so long that he felt selling off King would have put them team in a grave with the fans.

The Rangers on the other hand, specifically as it relates to selling Yu, have more equity built with the fanbase according to Cameron and therefore can weather sellling him off for a ransom of prospects.

I think Cameron vastyly underestimates how quickly the DFW "fans" will turn on the Rangers if they cash in and rebuild. The attendance numbers spiked quick and they can drop just as quickly if the Rangers turn into an Astros type operation. This is a front-running town, in the aggregate, and while there is a strong core of great baseball fans especially in Tarrant Co., it's not enough to keep the ballpark full if they are going to start from scratch IMO.

They aren't naive enough to think that if they put a 0.500 club out on the field with no star power that they'll be packing the house.

But it's also not accurate to call them a "front-running town", as it implies that when the team isn't winning the division that the stands are barren and the 2000's proved that wasn't the case.

Will people go pack the house to sit out in 100 degree weather to watch a bunch of no-names lose 95 games? No... But that doesn't happen in any city.

Assuming ownership is willing, Rangers basically have two options:

1) Be fiscally conservative and acknowledge that based on your current roster the 2015 team is not going to be championship caliber. Sell off the pieces you don't believe will be there to help you in 2016 and beyond (Beltre, Rios, Soria) and make the decision on what to do with the middle infield (trading one of Profar/Odor/Andrus). Make a very generous offer to extend Darvish (in the $25m/year range), and if he's not willing to accept that then you know that he's likely not going to be a Ranger once he is able to test free agency and you make a trade that nets you key pieces for 2016 and beyond. If he does accept it, you've got your #1 locked up and even if 2015 is bad you've got a "face of the franchise" that will generate excitement no matter if Texas is a middling 2015 team.

What decides if this plan is set in motion is the Darvish offer. If he's not willing to accept a long-term $25m/year contract then there's a very good chance with his opt-out that 2016 is the last year he is a Ranger, and one year of Darvish on a competitive team isn't worth the haul you could get for him.


2) The Angels approach. You roll the dice that Choo and Fielder will both return to form in 2015 and that Holland will be a competent #2/#3 starter. You bump payroll by $20m and go out and money-whip a #3 starting pitcher and use the odd-man-out of Profar/Andrus/Odor to try and net you another #3/#4 guy. Young arm in the system can hold down the #5 spot.

You basically become the Angels with a lineup that is potent if producing, but grossly overpaid if not.

2015:

1) Choo - LF
2) Odor - 2B
3) Fielder - 1B
4) Beltre - 3B
5) Rios - RF
6) Free Agency - DH
7) Martin - CF
8) Profar - SS
9) Chirinos - C

SP) Darvish
SP) Holland
SP) Free agency (~$15m/year)
SP) Acquired via Andrus trade
SP) Farm


It's not a lineup that will win any preseason WS favorite awards, but it can compete for a division.

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1 more year and he is gone or ubber expensive.

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Under his current deal, they have him through 2016 at least, with 2017 being a "maybe, but not likely".

I'm really torn on the right approach. To me, the biggest key is what kind of offers Beltre, Rios, and Soria are drawing right now. If it's good enough to make blowing things up for 2015, do it. But otherwise, I see what the roster mhayden posted can do.

Dallas is absolutley a front running town, especially if the bar is set at "selling out or close to it" most if not every game. The Mavs, Stars, and even Cowboys to their own degree have felt this.

No, the ballpark won't be Minute Maid empty if they tear down and rebuild. That, IMO, is a credit to the Tarrant Co. fans. But it will empty out a lot of the equity they've built over the past 5 years and that's pretty risky considering what it took to get them to that point. That, IMO, is something Cameron is grossly underestimating with this take.

If it's a "front-running town", then what equity has been built up (and what would it matter anyways?)?

If you win, the fans will come out. If you don't win the attendance will be mediocre, but not horrible.

I understand the "front-running town" label to franchises that pack the house when they are championship caliber but draw sub-20,000 fans when they are bad.

But a team that draws average attendance when they are bad/average and good/great attendance when they are good? Nothing bad about that.

So what about the ultimate question - Does Washington survive?

We're having a semantics battle about front running and attendance which isn't the point.

The point is that if the Rangers tear down it will have a bigger impact of the fandom of the team than Cameron thinks IMO.

This isn't a Boston or Chicago vs. Texas debate.