I think that's a pretty good summation.

Though I'll say with McCullers we're still dealing with way too low a sample size. Still at around 200 innings in his career (and a pretty poor WHIP last season, haven't checked BABIP)... There's a lot of guys who looked like studs for a year or two and then faded into mediocrity.

Ag_07 said:

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I think I can sum this up pretty easily...

• Yu has better stuff than Keuchel but he struggles using it.

• Keuchel doesn't have the stuff Yu has but he is WAY better at using what he has. He's an absolute artist on the mound.

• McCullers has better stuff than both of them but he hasn't quite learned how to use it effectively. He's close but right now he's not there yet.

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free_mhayden said:

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corleoneAg99 said:

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free_mhayden said:

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If we're talking just a single season, then worse "stuff" or not, you take Keuchel in a heartbeat over Yu.

Keuchel has proven to be a guy that is going to give you around 7 innings and 2/3 ER.

While Yu has better "stuff", he's giving you an inning less each time out.

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Interesting. So if I asked you in late March to pick Yu or Dallas you're taking Dallas for all of 2017?

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Probably not (though Yu's durability would certain cause me concern). But on April 26, 2017 I'd take Keuchel the rest of 2017 over Yu.

Ignoring this year, over the last 3 years Keuchel has been a 200IP/3.21 ERA pitcher.

Even in Yu's two "healthy" seasons he only gave you a 3.34 ERA.


Darvish has the higher ceiling, but we're in his 5th year and he's been near that ceiling just one year (2013).

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Just to change this up a bit and get some insight from the Ranger fans...

If Strom is coaching Yu and Brocail is coaching Dallas and Lance are things any different?

I'm gonna say absolutely.

I can't speak to Brocail as a pitching coach, but I think Strom has been instrumental in getting Dallas into a CY Young caliber pitcher and in developing Lance. I would have to think that if he were coaching a guy with Yu's talent he would be too.

This may be a complete derail but I think it's an interesting aspect.

I don't follow the Astros enough to give an opinion on them, but I haven't seen anything to indicate Brocail is even a decent pitching coach.

Yes. Strom has been worth every penny.

And this may sound crazy, but if the Rangers end up being sellers at the deadline. I would absolutely love for the Astros to get Yu for a half season rental.

Thinking the Rangers get a Low A pitcher and an upper level bat.

The Astros basically fired Brocail.

Not really sure why the Rangers decided he was a good pickup... I guess because he's "known"... and maybe they didn't think Maddux would leave.

I'm not one that really thinks the pitching coach makes all that much of a difference, especially with guys with established careers... but its hard to see how Brocail is earning his keep.

irish pete ag06 said:

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Yes. Strom has been worth every penny.

And this may sound crazy, but if the Rangers end up being sellers at the deadline. I would absolutely love for the Astros to get Yu for a half season rental.

Thinking the Rangers get a Low A pitcher and an upper level bat.

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I mentioned something like that in the seller's thread. I doubt they want to deal with Houston, but Hamels or Darvish would be a nice #3.

free_mhayden said:

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The Astros basically fired Brocail.

Not really sure why the Rangers decided he was a good pickup... I guess because he's "known"... and maybe they didn't think Maddux would leave.

I'm not one that really thinks the pitching coach makes all that much of a difference, especially with guys with established careers... but its hard to see how Brocail is earning his keep.

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The Rangers have been trolling the Astros with picking up all of their ex-people.

• Delino DeShields
• Carlos Corporan (thanks for Frances Martes by the way)
• Brocail
• Carlos Gomez
• Mike Hauschild

Am I forgetting anyone? Seems like there's more.

aggie1906 said:

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irish pete ag06 said:

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Yes. Strom has been worth every penny.

And this may sound crazy, but if the Rangers end up being sellers at the deadline. I would absolutely love for the Astros to get Yu for a half season rental.

Thinking the Rangers get a Low A pitcher and an upper level bat.

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I mentioned something like that in the seller's thread. I doubt they want to deal with Houston, but Hamels or Darvish would be a nice #3.

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Regarding Hamels - With Darvish likely walking after the season, Texas isn't going to deal away their other TORP. They may rebuild for a year, but they aren't going to fire-sale. Even ignoring that, Hamels already vetoed a trade to the Astros once, he'd likely do it again.

Regarding Darvish - Texas would have no problem dealing with Houston on a 2 month rental -- it's Houston that might be reluctant as it would be their end of the trade that could wind up hurting them in future years.

I thought Hamels was a FA, but he's got another year plus a club option.

Quote:

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Am I forgetting anyone? Seems like there's more.

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Isn't that enough??

Thought I'd add some numbers to the "stuff" discussion:





Source

Statistically speaking, Kuechel has the best stuff, followed by Yu, Hamels and McCullers in that order. Kuechel has the best two and four finger fastballs, Yu has the best traditional curve, Hamels the best change and McCuller's knuckle curve is the top rated off speed pitch of any of the four.

Also FWIW, in terms of "stuff" it looks like McCullers is pretty similar to Derek Holland. Obviously pitch quality =/= command, which ended up biting Derek in the ass the last couple of years especially as his velocity waned. But at his peak, Holland was stacking up "Maddux" starts and had one of the best single game pitching scores in World Series history, so I'm not trying to be snarky.

I'd say "pitch quality" is pretty subjective.

If we're separating control (which I think most acknowledge Yu struggles with often), then how good your stuff really comes down to how often can you make the batter try and hit it (swing) and miss.

In that regard, Keuchel and McCullers are good/great, but Yu Darvish is elite -- a whole other level.

It's why you have so many people talk about him in such high regard -- if he could harness his stuff better then he'd be the best pitcher in baseball... But we're in Year 5 and that hasn't happened yet.

FWIW Keuchel has a 19% career K rate.

Darvish is currently at 30%.

free_mhayden said:

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I'd say "pitch quality" is pretty subjective.

If we're separating control (which I think most acknowledge Yu struggles with often), then how good your stuff really comes down to how often can you make the batter try and hit it (swing) and miss.

In that regard, Keuchel and McCullers are good/great, but Yu Darvish is elite -- a whole other level.

It's why you have so many people talk about him in such high regard -- if he could harness his stuff better then he'd be the best pitcher in baseball... But we're in Year 5 and that hasn't happened yet.

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Yup.

gigem1223 said:

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Man, some of you Astros fans are the biggest homers. I get Keuchel, but McCullers? Darvish has better numbers across the board than McCullers. Then to say McCullers has better "stuff" than one of the greatest strikeout pitchers ever? Yu touches 98 and then will drop 65 the very next pitch. I mean the dude has like 6 different pitches. You do realize Darvish is #1 all time when it comes to so/ 9 IP? There's no debate Yu has the best "stuff" in baseball next to Kershaw, he just has issues controlling it from time to time.

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Cool ass story bro

Quote:

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Even ignoring that, Hamels already vetoed a trade to the Astros once, he'd likely do it again.

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Based off what, exactly?

You think he just hates Houston?

He probably saw the Rangers as closer to real contenders in 2015. I don't think that's the case anymore.

Silent For Too Long said:

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Quote:

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Even ignoring that, Hamels already vetoed a trade to the Astros once, he'd likely do it again.

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Based off what, exactly?

You think he just hates Houston?

He probably saw the Rangers as closer to real contenders in 2015. I don't think that's the case anymore.

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I wouldn't trade Mark Appel for Cole Hamels right now. Dude's trash at the moment and it's very unlikely to get better. Check out all the peripherals (K/9, BB/9, etc). He's going to get shelled soon if that doesn't change.

Silent For Too Long said:

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Quote:

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Even ignoring that, Hamels already vetoed a trade to the Astros once, he'd likely do it again.

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Based off what, exactly?

You think he just hates Houston?

He probably saw the Rangers as closer to real contenders in 2015. I don't think that's the case anymore.

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The Rangers were 8 games back of Houston when he blocked the trade.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-cole-hamels-primed-for-a-fall/

Most of the peripherals show he's been getting by on smoke and mirrors for a season+ now -- the question becomes is the oblique strain the cause of it, or simply his body breaking down. Guy has 2200+ IP under his belt.

gigem1223 said:

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Man, some of you Astros fans are the biggest homers. I get Keuchel, but McCullers? Darvish has better numbers across the board than McCullers. Then to say McCullers has better "stuff" than one of the greatest strikeout pitchers ever? Yu touches 98 and then will drop 65 the very next pitch. I mean the dude has like 6 different pitches. You do realize Darvish is #1 all time when it comes to so/ 9 IP? There's no debate Yu has the best "stuff" in baseball next to Kershaw, he just has issues controlling it from time to time.

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Darvish and McCullers are likely similar K/9 pitchers. Both approach 12. Darvish Is #1 all time because he hasnt started getting old yet and also came to MLB already in his prime.

JJxvi said:

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gigem1223 said:

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Man, some of you Astros fans are the biggest homers. I get Keuchel, but McCullers? Darvish has better numbers across the board than McCullers. Then to say McCullers has better "stuff" than one of the greatest strikeout pitchers ever? Yu touches 98 and then will drop 65 the very next pitch. I mean the dude has like 6 different pitches. You do realize Darvish is #1 all time when it comes to so/ 9 IP? There's no debate Yu has the best "stuff" in baseball next to Kershaw, he just has issues controlling it from time to time.

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Darvish and McCullers are likely similar K/9 pitchers. Both approach 12. Darvish Is #1 all time because he hasnt started getting old yet and also came to MLB already in his prime.

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That theory swings both ways though -- McCullers has 242 innings pitched under his belt at 10.45K/9.

Darvish has almost 3 times as many innings pitched and a higher K/9.

McCullers is (and should continue to be) a stud, but high K/9 is something that becomes increasingly harder to maintain the more innings you log.

Quote:

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The Rangers were 8 games back of Houston when he blocked the trade.

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They had also been to the post season 4 out of the previous 5 years, where as the Astros were still in a 10 year drought.

I'm not even saying I want the guy, but I think your reasoning supporting the position that he would block a trade to Houston is pretty suspect.

Silent For Too Long said:

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Quote:

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The Rangers were 8 games back of Houston when he blocked the trade.

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They had also been to the post season 4 out of the previous 5 years, where as the Astros were still in a 10 year drought.

I'm not even saying I want the guy, but I think your reasoning supporting the position that he would block a trade to Houston is pretty suspect.

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Which is why I said "likely", not "definitely".

He could very well decide he is fine with Houston -- and the Rangers certainly wouldn't want him blocking trades anywhere as it would only sweeten the pot if all teams are on the board.... But when a guy has a specific team on his no-trade clause and enacts that clause to block a late July trade to that team that is 8 games up in the division and a virtual lock to make the playoffs and instead goes to a team that at the time had less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs... then yeah I'd say there is a pretty decent chance that he just might not want to play for that team.

Per Fangraphs, the pitchers mentioned here ranked 1-15 for WAR in March/April:


Sale
Paxton
Thor
Kershaw
Mad Bum
Scherzer
Keuchel
Darvish
Devenski
McCullers
Lester
Verlander
Kluber
Arrieta
Hamels

Per Fangraphs, the pitchers mentioned here ranked 1-15 for K% in March/April:


Devenski
Sale
Paxton
Scherzer
Kershaw
McCullers
Thor
Arrieta
Darvish
Kluber
Mad Bum
Verlander
Keuchel
Lester
Hamels

Per Fangraphs, the pitchers mentioned here ranked 1-15 for SwStr% in March/April:


Devenski
Sale
Scherzer
Paxton
Thor
McCullers
Kershaw
Kluber
Mad Bum
Arrieta
Kuechel
Darvish
Lester
Verlander
Hamels

Per Fangraphs, the pitchers mentioned here ranked 1-15 for SIERA in March/April:


Devenski
Sale
Thor
Kershaw
Paxton
McCullers
Scherzer
Mad Bum
Arrieta
Keuchel
Kluber
Lester
Darvish
Verlander
Hamels