So for May we already know this will look a lot different; Mad Bum, Thor, Hamels are all out. Kluber could be depending on the length of his stint.

Also Chris Devenski is awesome and the chalk for Cy Young, being Sale and Kershaw, is looking good so far.

Otherwise my specific take on "guys id take before Darvish" looks ok. I knew Paxton would be better but not this good. And the two Astros starters have been really, really good. I would not have had them that high at all.

But Devenski...wow...dude can pitch.

If Devenski continues doing what he's doing, he should be heavily considered for the Cy.

irish pete ag06 said:

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If Devenski continues doing what he's doing, he should be heavily considered for the Cy.

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You're pretty much insane saying that, but probably also right.

McCullers 11

Dallas 14

Yu 44

Pitcher WAR so far this season. It's surprising for sure to me and honestly I'd think for most people outside Houston. McCullers and Keuchel have been phenomenal.

So the Musers had a Yu segment this morning that made me want to check in on this mid month.

George has long questioned Yu from the standpoint of "is he worth resigning for 25-30 mill a year...?" while Craig has generally been supportive.

George came on today and said he's pitching better than ever(not really...) and he's been impressed. Craig goes on to add that Yu's an "ace" and a top 10 pitcher in the AL. So anyway, just wanted to see where he sat in a couple of categories in all of MLB as of last night's start:



- 23rd in pitcher WAR. And that's with some key guys like Paxton, MadBum, and Paxton hurt.

- 2.76 ERA(15th)/3.54 xFIP(20th)

- 16.4 K-BB%...good enough for 27th in MLB.

- 26.3 K%...good enough for 19th in MLB.

- 3.83 SIERA - 29th in baseball

- 10.7 SwStr%(swinging strikes)....good enough for 28th in baseball.

- WPA of 1.26...good enough for 10th.


So it's still mid May and there's a lot of baseball yet to play, but so far he's got some room to get better.

Last full season for him was 2013 and here are some stats from then:

- Finished 12th in pitcher WAR.

- 2.83 ERA(9th)/2.84 xFIP(5th!!!!)

- 23.4 K-BB%....that was 1st in baseball.

- 32.9 K%....also 1st in baseball.

- 2.76 SIERA...2nd in baseball.

- 12.9 SwStr%....yup...1st in baseball.

- WPA of 2.82...good enough for 7th. Just for comparison sake, Kershaw was freaking 4.90 that year. Unreal.


So anyway I don't think Yu has to be 2013 good to be worth a big contract but I think it's fair to think he can be better than he has been so far in 2017. He's been good. I think he can be better.

And we have Yu facing Dallas Friday night...should be a great series.

Ok so to reset the premise, before the start of this season, these are the pitchers I would have taken over Yu for this season only:

Kershaw
Scherzer
Sale
Mad Bum(hurt)
Thor(hurt)
Kluber(hurt)

Other names mentioned in the thread included:

Lester
King Felix(hurt)
Paxton(hurt)
Keuchel
McCullers
Verlander
Arrieta
Hamels(hurt)

For the end of May update I'll take out anyone hurt and focus on:

Kershaw
Scherzer
Sale
Yu
Lester
Keuchel
McCullers
Verlander
Arrieta


Ok so lets look at WAR ranking of these 9:

Sale
Scherzer
Kershaw
Keuchel
McCullers
Lester
Yu
Arrieta
Verlander

Next lets look at K-BB%:

Sale
Scherzer
Kershaw
McCullers
Arrieta
Keuchel
Lester
Darvish
Verlander

K%:

Sale
Scherzer
McCullers
Kershaw
Arrieta
Darvish
Lester
Keuchel
Verlander

xFIP:
Sale
McCullers
Keuchel
Kershaw
Scherzer
Arrieta
Lester
Darvish
Verlander

SIERA:
Sale
Scherzer
Keuchel
McCullers
Kershaw
Arrieta
Lester
Darvish
Verlander



SwStr%:

Sale
Scherzer
Kershaw
McCullers
Arrieta
Lester
Darvish
Keuchel
Verlander

Now here is where each ranks in MLB for WAR on the season:


1 Sale
4 Scherzer
5 Kershaw
11 Keuchel
15 McCullers
23 Lester
36 Yu
39 Arrieta
48 Verlander


Guys who should have been in consideration for my original list aside from those here?

Archer
Strasburg
deGrom
Greinke

I'll be keeping an eye on them for sure.

Anyway here we are after two months and Yu has underperformed if you think, like I do, that he's a top 10 pictcher in baseball. He's had some good, some meh, but very little elite. I think the two guys who stand out the most to me are of course Kuechel and McCullers. They are both beasting and even though I liked both of them, I gave neither enough credit. They have been elite and if they keep this up the Astros are going to continue to beat the piss out of everyone. Health and/or bad luck is their only obstacle.

Now for some Yu specific notes on what's potentially driving this underperformance:

K-BB% = 14.7 easily the lowest of his career. Why?
K% = 25.3 when he's usually 30 or a little above.
BB% = 10.5% when he's usually closer to 8 or 9.

xFIP of 3.95 would be his highest since coming over by almost half a run. In 2013, for example, it was 2.84!

SwStr% is down about 1% where it usually is.

Hard contact % allowed is up about two points over career numbers and that's coming in total from a lower soft contact % allowed.

Highest allowed contact % of his career here.

Highest SIERA by a full point of his career here.

All of this with a career best LOB% and a 244 BABIP allowed which should probably tick up to around 280 or 290.

So in short, he's not at his best right now and if only BABIP ticks towards career norms it could get worse. His command is clearly off and without an Eno Saris type look at his Brooks figures it's tough to comment on "stuff" but it's probably fair to say it's either not as good as it was or as he wants it to be OR he's just not commanding it right now.

Either way he needs a good month or two to get back to where I think he should be. We'll see.

Ag_07 said:

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corleoneAg99 said:

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what's potentially driving this underperformance

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Doug Brocial

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Ag_07 said:

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corleoneAg99 said:

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what's potentially driving this underperformance

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Doug Brocial

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corleoneAg99 said:

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Ag_07 said:

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corleoneAg99 said:

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what's potentially driving this underperformance

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Doug Brocial

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And honestly I think this is what the Rangers should fear about trading Yu. I think if he gets traded and gets with a new pitching coach he'll turn that corner into elite status. If that happens and he sees the light they can kiss signing him back goodbye.

Especially if he goes to a winner and he plays on a team that makes a decent playoff run.

If the Rangers decide they want to sign him as FA next year they should hold to him.

Possible for sure...i just have no idea how much a pitching coach helps with command. Maybe if it's mechanical they have a better shot? Who knows.

Eh...probably so. A lot of ball left.

But for those before the season who had Keuchel being this good AND better than Yu...salutes. You were dead on.

Mi?

Sidd finch

friscodick said:

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I think it's settled for Dallas now.

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Even after bad starts he's still been light years better.

corleoneAg99 said:

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friscodick said:

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I think it's settled for Dallas now.

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Notice the qualifier "now" and even with his putrid starts after coming back from a pinched nerve (which is one of those lingering injuries that seem to affect each player differently) his overall numbers are still good. I think he will figure it out but there is definite room for concern.

Farmer1906 said:

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Even after bad starts he's still been light years better.

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Based on what measurement of value?

friscodick said:

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corleoneAg99 said:

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friscodick said:

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I think it's settled for Dallas now.

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Notice the qualifier "now" and even with his putrid starts after coming back from a pinched nerve (which is one of those lingering injuries that seem to affect each player differently) his overall numbers are still good. I think he will figure it out but there is definite room for concern.

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Yup. He's an excellent pitcher. Overall point is that very seldom is a baseball debate settled halfway through a given season.

corleoneAg99 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Even after bad starts he's still been light years better.

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Based on what measurement of value?

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ERA
WHIP
FIP

You pick.

Except he's only thrown 88 innings this year.

free_mhayden said:

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Except he's only thrown 88 innings this year.

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Agree with your list with the addition of Keuchel

How ironic that Yu and Dallas will play in the World Series...