Thanks!

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The one name that I saw a piece about was Rolen... but I think he is hall of really good

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He can join Buddy Bell there.

mathguy86 said:

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So the HOF is providing cover for the old writers.

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gotta be honest...there might be some steroid era players...that would go after the voters that don't vote for them. Either thru social media or actual confrontations.

Some of those players have massive egos and would go after the voters themsleves or have their agent, attorney, fans, former teams do it

Vizquel's case is complicated. In part because he played in the wrong era --- the steroid era --- when defense, stolen bases, walks, and singles did not carry the same value or prestige as they did in the 70's and 80's. (when Ozzie Smith played)

he has some crazy numbers...

between 1989 and 2004...his 16 years in the American League...he drew a grand total of 7 intentional walks.

his career total of HBP is 49...in over 12,000 plate appearances

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Some of those players have massive egos

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If we could only get Lance Armstrong to write a negative article about Roger Clemens...

W said:

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his career total of HBP is 49...in over 12,000 plate appearances

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If only he had accumulated more HBP then he could make it into the HOF on his 3rd try...

And the fun has officially started. Ryan Thibodaux has his HOF tracker going.

HOF tracker

mathguy86 said:

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And the fun has officially started. Ryan Thibodaux has his HOF tracker going.

HOF tracker

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Thome getting a lot of love early.

And Lolz at Rolen, Wagner, and Andruw Jones getting votes in place of some guys.

24 ballots have been posted (not official)

Thome - 24
Chipper - 23
Vladimir - 22
Clemens - 20

If I had a vote, it would look like this:

Bonds
Clemens
Vlad
Thome
Chipper

If I were required to vote for 10, I'd add:

Edgar
Walker
Andruw
McGriff
Manny

I wrestle w/ Mussina, Vizquel and Sheffield. Perhaps my vote for McGriff is driven by nostalgia. There was something I just enjoyed about watching him. But I think there's only 5 guys that, IMO, are clear-cut HOFers, w/ Edgar being the closest to joining that group.

We have our first WTF ballot from Cleveland sports writer Bill Livingston

https://articles.cleveland.com/livingston/index.ssf/2017/12/my_baseball_hall_of_fame_ballo.amp

What a tool. He wanted to abstain because of steroids. Ok. Whatever. You want to make a stand? Go ahead. But no. He couldn't not vote for his beloved Indians. That's not fair to them. So to hell with those horrible unproven steroid users. They don't belong in the Hall of Saints. None of them. But go Indians!

What. A. ****ing. Sanctimonious. Gasbag.

Thomas as made it on all 30 ballots that are known. Long ways to go but that seems pretty telling.

Wrong thread

Mr.Ackar07 said:

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We have our first WTF ballot from Cleveland sports writer Bill Livingston

https://articles.cleveland.com/livingston/index.ssf/2017/12/my_baseball_hall_of_fame_ballo.amp

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This is just disgusting and why so many see the process as a joke.

The Veterans Committee announced the result of their voting. Jack Morris and Alan Trammell were elected.

if Barry Larkin is in the Hall of Fame then it makes sense that Trammell should be too. Their numbers are very close in most categories.

Trammell had the misfortune of a large part of his career overlapping with Cal Ripken's

mathguy86 said:

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What a tool. He wanted to abstain because of steroids. Ok. Whatever. You want to make a stand? Go ahead. But no. He couldn't not vote for his beloved Indians. That's not fair to them. So to hell with those horrible unproven steroid users. They don't belong in the Hall of Saints. None of them. But go Indians!

What. A. ****ing. Sanctimonious. Gasbag.

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The same guy last year claimed to "abstain" while submitting a blank ballot. No....you didn't "abstain"! Abstaining would mean you didn't submit a ballot. This may be the worst of the voters.

Latest figures (46 ballots)

Above 75%
Thome 45
Chipper 44
Vlad 42
Edgar 38
Hoffman 38

Below 75%
Mussina 34
Clemens 34
Bonds 33
Schilling 31
Vizquel 18
Walker 18
Manny 13

• Surprised at the lack of support Andruw Jones is getting (10%)
• Kent in danger of falling off the ballot (4.3%)
• Always bummed that McGriff never has seemed to gain traction (19.6%). Next year is last year on the ballot.
• Rolen seems to be having a decent showing on his first ballot (15.2%)
• Really hoping Walker (39.1%) gets over 50%, but his biggest enemy may be the bloated ballot
• The difference in votes between Hoffman and Wagner (82.6% vs 8.7%) makes no sense whatsoever. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Wagner falls below the 5% mark this year.

51 ballots in so far. This could be a big class.

Thome (98%)
Chipper (96.1%)
Vlad (92.2%)
Edgar (82.4%)
Hoffman (80.4%)
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Clemens (74.5%)
Bonds (72.5%)
Mussina (72.5%)

No one else is above 40%

For the Vizquel supporters, he has 19 votes (37.3%), but he got 7 of the first 7 votes, so he's really trending down since then

I am really pulling for Rolen. I'd certainly take him over Vizquel. Rolen is hurt by the perception he was always injured and that he didn't reach any of the traditional milestones. I was surprised, though, when I looked at some of the other metrics:

Rolen: 70.0 career WAR / 43.5 7yr-peak WAR / 56.8 JAWS
Average HOF 3B: 67.5 career WAR / 42.8 7yr-peak WAR / 55.2 JAWS

Vizquel: 45.3 career WAR / 26.6 7yr-peak WAR / 36.0 JAWS
Average HOF SS: 66.7 career WAR / 42.8 7yr-peak WAR / 54.8 JAWS

Decent jump up to 72 votes known.

Thome (97.2%)
Chipper (97.2%)
Vlad (91.7%)
Edgar (84.7%)
Hoffman (75%)
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Clemens (72.2%)
Bonds (70.8%). The 10 vote limit is starting to differentiate them I think.
Mussina (69.4%)
Shilling (69.4)

Next closest is Walker at 40.3%

I think we are going to see a 4 man class and I really think Bonds and Clemens make it next year as only Rivera is a lock as a newcomer.

Another bump in votes up to 86.

Chipper (97.7%)
Thome (96.5%)
Vlad (93.0%)
Edgar (86.0%)
Hoffman (77.9%)
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Clemens (74.4%). At one point he actually edged above 75%
Bonds (73.3%).
Mussina (72.1%)
Shilling (68.6%)

Everyone but Thome and Shilling actually gained %. If they can elect 4 or horror of horrors 5 that really clears a backlog from the 10 vote max standpoint.

And the steroid issue is starting to finally get some clarity as old writers drop off. Bonds and Clemens are going to get in. Maybe not this year but next I think it's happening. Users that never tested positive. And at the other end ManRam sits at 29.1%. Most feared RH hitter of his generation but busted twice. In 4 years that's going to make David Ortiz and ARod a very interesting set of test cases.

Clearing 5 off the ballot would be a godsend especially with next year's class.

The 2019 additions should be:

Locks:
Mariano Rivera
Roy Halladay

I think will get in eventually:
Todd Helton
Andy Pettitte

Borderline:
Lance Berkman
Michael Young
Miguel Tejada (because of steroids)

Mr.Ackar07 said:

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Clearing 5 off the ballot would be a godsend especially with next year's class.

The 2019 additions should be:

Locks:
Mariano Rivera
Roy Halladay

I think will get in eventually:
Todd Helton
Andy Pettitte

Borderline:
Lance Berkman
Michael Young
Miguel Tejada (because of steroids)

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Oh, I think Rivera is the only first-ballot lock. Halladay will get in though, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's not in his first year. His death, however, may factor into that.

I think Pettite is classic Hall of Very Good. If Walker gets in, then Helton will likely get there as well. If Walker doesn't, then I don't see how they can justify putting Helton in.

I wouldn't be surprised if Berkman and Young both drop off after the first or second ballot. Berkman didn't even reach 2,000 hits. His case reminds me of Jim Edmonds. Similar numbers, but Edmonds played elite defense and dropped after his first year. Young would have been an interesting case though had he stayed around to chase 3,000, but he's not close to a HOFer, IMO. Great ballplayer and versatile, but not HOF worthy. I don't think Tejada makes it past year 1 either. See Johnny Damon, for example.

If I had to put percentages to how likely I think the above players are to get in eventually, I'd go:

Rivera - 100%
Halladay - 95%
Pettitte - 15%
Helton - 10%
Berkman - 5%
Young - 0%
Tejada - 0%

Rivera and Halladay are the only two HOF-worthy players, IMO.

the Veterans committee is going to be busy in the years ahead if some of the names being tossed around make the Hall.

Dave Parker and Al Oliver have equal or better numbers than many of them

109 ballots (net gain among returning voters/# missed by in 2017):

Chipper 98.2%
Thome 95.4%
Vlad 94.5% (15/15)
Edgar 81.7% (13/73)
Hoffman 79.8% (4/5)
-----------------------
Clemens 72.5% (1/93)
Bonds 71.6% (0/94)
Mussina 70.6% (6/103)
Schilling 67% (10/133)
Walker 40.4% (19/235)
Manny 29.4% (0/227)
Vizquel 27.5%

Looks as though Wagner and Kent are getting hurt most by the addition of names this year. Each has lost 3 votes from last years voters. Surprised to see Schilling gain 10 votes so far. I think this ends up as a 4-person class (Chipper/Thome/Vlad/Hoffman). Despite the strong numbers from Clemens and Bonds so far, they aren't actually gaining any votes so far. I'd expect to see them finish around 55%.

128 votes:


Chipper 98.4%
Thome 95.3%
Vlad 93.8% (20/15)
Edgar 80.5% (13/73)
Hoffman 78.% (6/5)
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Clemens 74.2% (1/93)
Bonds 73.4% (0/94)
Mussina 69.5% (9/103)
Schilling 66.4% (12/133)
Walker 39.1% (19/235)
Manny 29.7% (-2/227)
Vizquel 25.8%

Vlad, Chipper and Thome are looking like locks. No surprise there. Hoffman is still hovering in that 75-80% range, but has at least made up the necessary gap from returning voters. Edgar has a huge hill to climb, but expect he'll get a boost next year w/ it being his last chance on the ballot. Schilling has been surprisingly strong. I'd put Walker in over him though.

I think we end up w/ Vlad, Chipper, Thome and Hoffman in the 2018 class. Edgar, Rivera, Mussina in 2019, w/ the possibility of Halladay.

Andruw Jones, Kent and Wagner (less likely) are running the risk of falling off the ballot. And then there's poor Fred McGriff. He's never gained traction, but has even fell back significantly so far this year. I fear Rolen could be the next McGriff in that regard.

Another big bump up to 151 votes.

Chipper (98.7%)
Thome (97.7%)
Vlad (93.4%)
Edgar (80.8%)
Hoffman (78.2%)
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Mussina (72.2%)
Clemens (70.2%)
Bonds (70.2%).
Shilling (66.9%)

Edgar is real close to his threshold. Given how the private votes at the end trend historically for position players, he needs to be at 81-82% at the close. Hoffman is actually in better shape I think as relievers seem to gain a couple of points for some strange reason. I still think we may see a 5 man class. Which will piss the purists off to no end.

My concern for Edgar is that he missed election last year by 73 votes, but has only gained 17 votes from returning voters that didn't vote for him last year. He also did not fair well on the private ballots compared to the public ballots last year (-12%). My guess is that he finishes around 72% this year, but gets in easily next year.

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Dave Parker and Al Oliver have equal or better numbers than many of them

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Al Oliver - spent almost half of his career in CF...in the national league...in the 1970's...and still managed to only steal 84 bases in his career. Weird stat.

as an aside...if Edgar Martinez makes the HoF...it may be time to go back and heavily criticize the mid-to-late 1990's Seattle Mariners as the most underachieving teams of all-time.

that Mariners era already has 2 Hall of Famers in Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson in the prime of their careers (plus a young A-Rod). Edgar would make the 3rd Hall of Famer on those teams...that managed to miss the playoffs more times than not and never reached the world series -- just the ALCS once (1995).

that is some serious futility in the playoff expansion era (post-1994)

94chem said:

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Quote:

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Dave Parker and Al Oliver have equal or better numbers than many of them

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Al Oliver - spent almost half of his career in CF...in the national league...in the 1970's...and still managed to only steal 84 bases in his career. Weird stat.

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the reason for Al Oliver's low base-stealing total is the same as the reason for Roberto Clemente's low base-stealing total...

-----> Willie Stargell

you didn't steal bases in front of Pops. The runner was already in scoring position at first (for arguably the most feared hitter in the national league for a decade plus)

Up to 181 votes.

Chipper (98.3%)
Vlad (94.5%)
Thome (93.4%)
Edgar (80.7%)
Hoffman (77.9%)
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Mussina (73.5%)
Schilling (66.3%)
Clemens (65.7%)
Bonds (65.7%).


Other interesting cases:
Walker (39.8%) - 9th year on ballot. I don't think he'll make it next year, unfortunately. He'll be a committee selection. I think he's going to be a victim of the backlogged ballot.
Vizquel (29.3%) - 1st year on ballot. Surprised by the low numbers. It seemed as though heading into this that there was a lot of Vizquel buzz. I'm not a fan.
Rolen (11.6%) - 1st year on ballot. I'm much more a fan of Rolen than Vizquel. Hope to see him increase his numbers over next few years.