Baines never got 10% while on the ballot. We were talking about him specifically. He said he was a great teammate but not HOF. I mentioned Dave Parker who he also played with. His opinion was no.

Very interesting to see the early gains by Larry Walker (+9) and Fred McGriff (+6).

PacifistAg said:

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Very interesting to see the early gains by Larry Walker (+9) and Fred McGriff (+6).

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If McGriff had 7 more HR, there's not even a debate. So stupid.

94chem said:

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PacifistAg said:

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Very interesting to see the early gains by Larry Walker (+9) and Fred McGriff (+6).

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If McGriff had 7 more HR, there's not even a debate. So stupid.

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Absolutely agree with this. It's insane to think that the 1994 strike is what's going to keep him out of the Hall, at least from being selected by the writers.

73 ballots (17.7%)
Rivera - 73 (100%)
Halladay - 67 (91.8%)
Edgar - 66 (90.4%) +8 / 20
Mussina - 60 (82.2%) +10 / 49
Schilling - 56 (76.7%) +4 / 101
-----------------------------------------------------
Clemens - 52 (71.2%) +1 / 75
Bonds - 51 (69.9%) +1 / 79
Walker - 46 (63.0%) +11 / 173


Schilling moved above the line. Walker coming on very strong. If he can keep it up, he'll be looking like he'll have a solid chance next year. Edgar and Mussina are both picking up a lot of new votes as well, but Mussina is unlikely to pick up the 49 votes he needs.

141 ballots (34.3%)
Rivera - 141 (100%)
Halladay - 134 (95%)
Edgar - 129 (91.5%) +14 / 20
Mussina - 116 (82.3%) +14 / 49
Clemens - 106 (75.2%) +3 / 75
-----------------------------------------------------
Bonds - 105 (74.5%) +3 / 79
Schilling - 102 (72.3%) +8 / 101
Walker - 93 (66%) +28 / 173



Walker continues to climb, having gained 28 new votes already. He won't make it this year, but is setting up nicely for next year.

That Larry Walker is a possible HOFer is incomprehensible to me. Just let everyone who is good to really good for a long time in then.

jja79 said:

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That Larry Walker is a possible HOFer is incomprehensible to me. Just let everyone who is good to really good for a long time in then.

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Per Baseball Reference:
Black Ink: 24 (Avg HOFer - 27)
Gray Ink: 116 (Avg HOFer - 144)
HOF Monitor: 148 (Likely HOFer - 100)
HOF Standards: 58 (Avg HOFer - 50)
JAWS: 58.7 (10th all-time among RF. Everyone ahead of him is in HOF)

72.7 career WAR / 44.6 7yr-peak WAR / 58.7 JAWS
Average HOF RF (out of 25): 72.7 career WAR / 42.9 7yr-peak WAR / 57.8 JAWS

On top of that, he has an MVP award and 6 Gold Gloves. For a 6 year stretch, in his peak, the guy had a slash line of .353/.441/.648. The slash line for his career was .313/.400/.565.

I have no issue with him being in, especially when compared to RF currently in the Hall. These are the HOF RF that he currently ranks ahead of w/ regards to JAWS (removed those who played pre-1950):

• Tony Gwynn
• Ichiro (including him bc he's a shoe-in)
• Dave Winfield
• Vladimir Guerrero
• Enos Slaughter
• Harold Baines

Larry Walker' is not a HOFer for me. His home versus away splits are really skewed to Coors Field.

Home: OPS 1.068, tOPS+ 120, BABIP .362
Away: OPS .865, tOPS+ 80, BABIP .301

Those stats include his home time in Montreal and St. Louis. His Coors numbers are even more extreme.

Coors: OPS. 1.172, tOPS+ 141, BABIP .385

I mentioned in the Baines discussion I work with a former Major Leaguer who was a teammate of Baines. He said he was maybe the nicest guy he ever met but in no way HOF worthy. We talked about Walker today and his response was "no way."

In 18 years he played 130+ games 10 times and had 150+ hits 7 times. I don't see it especially with 10 years in Colorado.

172 ballots (41.7%)
Rivera - 172 (100%)
Halladay - 162 (94.2%)
Edgar - 155 (90.1%) +17 / 20
Mussina - 140 (81.4%) +16 / 49
-----------------------------------------------------
Schilling - 127 (73.8%) +13 / 101
Clemens - 126 (73.3%) +3 / 75
Bonds - 125 (72.7%) +3 / 79
Walker - 113 (65.7%) +34 / 173

A week away now from the official announcement. Looks like 3 for sure. I assume Mussina will drop below 75% just barely.

Another 140 or so ballots will be made public either through NotMrTibbs or the BWAA public ballots that come out after election results are announced. If he maintains an 80% rate on those, that would be 112 votes. Of the 100 or so ballots that will remain private, if its like last year, he will get less that half of those votes for another 45.

Add those 160ish votes to his know total of 160, he has a 10 vote margin of error to be elected in 2019.

According to NotMrTibbs, about 309 votes will get you to 75% this year.

Next year's ballot will have Derek Jeter. With him will be Paul Konerko, Bobby Abreu, Cliff Lee, Jason Giambi, and Alfonso Soriano. Abreu didn't have the power of his era, Cliff Lee wasn't dominant long enough, Giambi was a roider, and Soriano... meh? I'd take Konerko over all of those guys.

So with one for sure HOF addition, and one fringe, that would bode well for Mussina if he falls short and Schilling if he continues to keep his mouth shut.

Larry Walker will also enter his final year on the ballot, so not only is it his best chance, but probably his only chance. I bet we see a lot less 10 vote ballots next year.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

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Next year's ballot will have Derek Jeter. With him will be Paul Konerko, Bobby Abreu, Cliff Lee, Jason Giambi, and Alfonso Soriano. Abreu didn't have the power of his era, Cliff Lee wasn't dominant long enough, Giambi was a roider, and Soriano... meh? I'd take Konerko over all of those guys.

So with one for sure HOF addition, and one fringe, that would bode well for Mussina if he falls short and Schilling if he continues to keep his mouth shut.

Larry Walker will also enter his final year on the ballot, so not only is it his best chance, but probably his only chance. I bet we see a lot less 10 vote ballots next year.

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Agreed. I think next year is the best chance for Bonds/Clemens to pick up more than just a handful of votes. Mussina and Walker will be the biggest beneficiaries. If McGriff had one more year left, I think he could have picked up a ton as well, although I'm confident he'll get in w/ the Today's Game committee (or whatever it's called) that gave us the Baines abomination.

I'm curious as to leaves off Rivera this year though. You have to assume someone will turn in a blank ballot.

I can't remember, did so.eone leave off Griffey? Are we still waiting on a 100% vote getter?

ChipFTAC01 said:

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I can't remember, did so.eone leave off Griffey? Are we still waiting on a 100% vote getter?

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Yes. He was left off of 3 ballots.

ChipFTAC01 said:

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I can't remember, did so.eone leave off Griffey? Are we still waiting on a 100% vote getter?

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Isn't there a voter out there that refuses to vote for any first year candidate?

jja79 said:

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Baines never got 10% while on the ballot. We were talking about him specifically. He said he was a great teammate but not HOF. I mentioned Dave Parker who he also played with. His opinion was no.

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Kinda makes George Bush re-think what he said about trading Sammy Sosa for Harold Baines being his biggest mistake. He acquired a Hall of Famer.

KT 90 said:

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ChipFTAC01 said:

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I can't remember, did so.eone leave off Griffey? Are we still waiting on a 100% vote getter?

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Isn't there a voter out there that refuses to vote for any first year candidate?

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I believe so, although, if I recall correctly, a couple years ago there was a purge of older voters who didn't really cover the game anymore. That voter may have been part of that. There will undoubtedly be a voter who turns in a blank ballot. It seems like there always is.

PacifistAg said:

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KT 90 said:

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ChipFTAC01 said:

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I can't remember, did so.eone leave off Griffey? Are we still waiting on a 100% vote getter?

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Isn't there a voter out there that refuses to vote for any first year candidate?

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I believe so, although, if I recall correctly, a couple years ago there was a purge of older voters who didn't really cover the game anymore. That voter may have been part of that. There will undoubtedly be a voter who turns in a blank ballot. It seems like there always is.

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There was an anonymous blank ballot submitted last year. The 2017 ballot had 2 blank ballots - Murray Chass & Bill Livingston. Both guys voted for players on the 2018 ballot with Livingston voting for only Thome & Vizquel and claiming it wasn't a homer vote (he write for the Cleveland newspaper).

Livingston relinquished his ballot after last year and won't vote for the 2019 ballot; Murray hasn't made his public.

There was a guy who said he wasn't going to vote for Mariano, but he also stated he wasn't going to submit his ballot this year.

This is the day. Looks like 3 for sure elections in Rivera, Halladay, and Martinez, and Mussina right there on the cusp. If all 4 go in, then there will be a group of 4 returning next year that will have received close to 60% of the votes this year: Clemens, Bonds, Schilling, Walker.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

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This is the day. Looks like 3 for sure elections in Rivera, Halladay, and Martinez, and Mussina right there on the cusp. If all 4 go in, then there will be a group of 4 returning next year that will have received close to 60% of the votes this year: Clemens, Bonds, Schilling, Walker.

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Yep. I think Mussina falls short. He missed election by 49 votes last year, and only has a net gain of 18 so far this year. He'll need to do really well on the unknown ballots. He'll get in next year. I'm really hoping for a strong showing on unknown ballots for Bonds and Clemens, but I imagine they'll end up with about 62-65%.

Can't wait to hear Edgar's name called!

Why does he think its his "last chance" to do these. Is he speaking in terms of this year or for perpetuity?

Jimmy_the_gent said:

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Why does he think its his "last chance" to do these. Is he speaking in terms of this year or for perpetuity?

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I'm hoping he's talking about this year only. I'd hate if he stopped doing these in coming years. He's one of my favorite to follow on twitter.

Jimmy_the_gent said:

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Why does he think its his "last chance" to do these. Is he speaking in terms of this year or for perpetuity?

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I think he means before the announcements are made. As in he won't have time between now and the announcement to do anything other than update the spreadsheet.

Edgar
Halladay
Mussina
Rivera

100% for Rivera

ORAggieFan said:

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Mr.Ackar07 said:

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100% for Rivera

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Great for him, but why him and not Junior....

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Maybe the moron who used the whole "if Babe Ruth wasn't unanimous, nobody is" mantra and his ilk are no longer voters?

Bunk Moreland said:

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ORAggieFan said:

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Mr.Ackar07 said:

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100% for Rivera

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Great for him, but why him and not Junior....

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Maybe the moron who used the whole "if Babe Ruth wasn't unanimous, nobody is" mantra and his ilk are no longer voters?

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Definitely a changing of the voters. A reliever is unanimous and a DH gets in with 85%.

It's a shame that Bonds and Clemens failed to crack 60%. That does not bode well, given the very small increase. It seems as though minds are made up at this point. On to 2020 though.

Jeter is the only obvious one. It will be Schilling's best shot, given that outside of Bonds and Clemens, there's really nobody else worth that screams HOF (I'd argue neither does Schilling). I think you'll see much smaller ballots cast. Could see Walker sneaking in, since people seem obsessed with voting for 10 even if there aren't 10 worthy of votes.

Keep an eye on Omar. I'm not saying he's a HoFer (I actually don't think he is, even though I loved him), but him being at 42% in year 2 makes me think he keeps rising.

Halladay is such a sad story.