07ag said:

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n_touch said:

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07ag said:

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not really astros related, but, some braves fan/legend went to all six games and snuck into the team after party

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/qmubkd/braves_in_6_the_night_i_was_one_of_those_mother/

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Wonder who is going to play him in the movie?

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idk,, jonah hill maybe?

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BMX Bandit said:

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Per Spotrac Astros 2022 payroll is around $120mm already

Altuve 29mm
Brantley 16mm
LMJ 15.8mm
Bregman 12.66mm
Pressley 10mm
Yuli 8mm
Odo 8mm
Baez 5.5mm
Castro 4.25mm
Diaz 4mm*
Montero 3.1mm*
Stanek 2.1mm*
Maton 1.4mm*
James 700k*

That doesn't include pre-arb guys of Yordan, Tucker, Javier, McCormick, Meyers, Paredes, Raley,Siri, Garcia, Framber, etc.



*estimated arbitration

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Looks like baseball reference updated too. It estimates arbitration, options picked up, etc.

$131.7M

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/HOU/houston-astros-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

That's 48.3 M to spend if the tax is 180 M. If it stays around 210 then we're just under 80 M.

18-25 M - new starter (Thor, Stroman, or Ray, please)
12-15 M - bullpen (big money for Graveman and a couple of mil for someone else)
3-13 M - Depth position players (Maybe invest in someone cheap like Jose Iglesias for another body that can play SS. I wouldn't mind a power bat who can play a little first too - no one really coming to mind just yet)


33-53 M spent. We roll with what we have offensively for the most part. Then replace old man Greinke with a top end arm. Retain or go sign bullpen arms. See who wins the CF job between Meyers, Siri, & Chas. If it isn't Chas then he's the 4th OFer. Maybe look to trade the 3rd place guy (thinking, Siri).

I'm not sure about Gravemen

When he was with Seattle and his first few games with us, he was throwing 98-99mph on the reg

By the postseason, his fastball was 94-96...I thought that was a pretty big drop and could have been indicative of his lower effectiveness since coming from Seattle

Saw it earlier on this thread, but I would really like to see if the Astros could persuade Smoltz to come out of the booth. He mentioned it multiple times throughout the playoffs that he'd love to be a pitching coach. He's got a heck of a mind when it comes to pitching, and I think he'd be really good here. At least kick the tires on it.

As far as signings, if Correa is gone, Marcus Semien would be a really nice replacement. He did just finish 3rd in the MVP voting last year. He's got a great bat, is solid defensively. I also wouldn't hate it if we took a chance with Bryant, he can play CF or you move Tuck over. I just don't feel great about Chas/Siri/Meyers playing 150 games in CF..Chafin is almost a must sign imo for the 'pen. I'd like to see us add Stroman as well. He's got really good stuff and would pair well with our rotation imo

who the hell is Chafin

Pedro Leon, Open-Side HR #Astros pic.twitter.com/gIu8gYaJoB

— Josh Norris (@jnorris427) November 5, 2021

LH Reliever who can get guys out from both sides of the plate.

Kevin Gausman is one of the top pitchers on this year‘s market. Where might he wind up? https://t.co/lqGbbydUOP

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) November 5, 2021

Quote:

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Astros
If Justin Verlander and Greinke depart as free agents, the Astros will have lost two former Cy Young winners along with Gerrit Cole over a two-year stretch. Lance McCullers Jr. was excellent in 2021 and the Astros' young starters pitched well, but adding a veteran top-of-the-rotation type makes sense for a team looking to extend its run as one of the AL's top contenders.

SCOUT'S TAKE
"Gausman backed up a really good 2020 performance with an even better 2021, justifying the Giants' utilization of the qualifying offer on him. The talented right-hander seems to be coming into his own at just the right time. The plus fastball/splitter combo are his signature offerings, and an improved slider has completed the three-pitch repertoire. The ability to sequence and understanding of how to optimize his pitches that has been refined in San Francisco is the difference-maker for a strike-thrower who possesses more control than command. There is some buyer beware due to a history of right shoulder injuries, but he has demonstrated health by making 33 starts this season. In my opinion, he is arguably a top-three starting pitching option on the market who will be compensated accordingly this winter."

BUYER BEWARE
Gausman's transformation into a reliable front-of-the-rotation arm over the past two years has been impressive, but is it sustainable? His increased use of his splitter -- he threw it a career-high 35.3% of the time in 2021 -- has helped make his four-seam fastball more effective. On the rare occasion when the four-seamer wasn't sharp, Gausman also struggled with the splitter, looking more like the pitcher he was with the Orioles. It should also be noted that Gausman's hard-hit rate has increased in each of the past two seasons, with his 40.9% ranking in the lower third of the league.

FOR COMP'S SAKE
Accepting a qualifying offer can be a risky move, especially if there are multi-year deals out there for the taking. But Gausman's gamble should pay off, much as it did for Ryu two years ago; Ryu accepted the Dodgers' QO, then signed a four-year, $80 million deal with the Blue Jays after posting the first All-Star year of his career. Ryu's contract began in his age-33 season, while Gausman turns 31 in January.

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I'll be Chafin a lot less with him coming out of the pen instead of Raley

Here's an update from the Arizona Fall League on Pedro Leon (from @jimcallisMLB)https://t.co/njsWC5n6xO

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) November 5, 2021

Quote:

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The Astros gave Leon the highest bonus in the 2020-21 international class, signing him for $4 million in January. With his combination of well-above-average raw power and speed, he's the best athlete in their system, and he also features top-of-the-scale arm strength.

Houston hasn't hesitated to challenge Leon. Not only did he head to Double-A for his pro debut, but he also played primarily at shortstop after spending most of his time in Cuba in center field. He also had to adapt to a new culture in the United States after defecting from Cuba.

"The biggest thing I've been working on since I've been here is my hitting," said Leon, who has made seven starts in center and five at shortstop in the Fall League. "That's the biggest gap between Cuba and here, the velocity and the movement and the spin. My mentality at the plate is changing too.
"It's a challenge to play two positions. I feel comfortable in center field, where I played professional baseball and growing up in Cuba. I'm also thankful that they're giving me a chance to learn a different position. That will give me more value, that they trust that I can do that too."

Leon was overly aggressive in his first couple of weeks in the AFL but has settled down some as he has gotten acclimated. He's batting .184/.298/.265 in Arizona after hitting .220/.339/.369 with nine homers and 18 steals in 72 Minor League games, mostly at Double-A.

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astros4545 said:

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I'm not sure about Gravemen

When he was with Seattle and his first few games with us, he was throwing 98-99mph on the reg

By the postseason, his fastball was 94-96...I thought that was a pretty big drop and could have been indicative of his lower effectiveness since coming from Seattle

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I'd try and resign him, just not for big money like Pressly

He was good, but really seemed shaky at times and not used to the BP role

AggiEE said:

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astros4545 said:

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I'm not sure about Gravemen

When he was with Seattle and his first few games with us, he was throwing 98-99mph on the reg

By the postseason, his fastball was 94-96...I thought that was a pretty big drop and could have been indicative of his lower effectiveness since coming from Seattle

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I'd try and resign him, just not for big money like Pressly

He was good, but really seemed shaky at times and not used to the BP role

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There was a lot of talk about fixing his mechanics. I think they may have sacrificed a little velocity for better location to make his delivery more repeatable.

We'll see if he wants to be a closer again.

He seemed to really enjoy the playoff experience, so that could help us re-sign him.

I think they are more likely to trade for someone at the deadline than extend Graveman

BMX Bandit said:

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I think they are more likely to trade for someone at the deadline than extend Graveman

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It may be worth trying a few internal options.

This guy seems interesting. I haven't given up on Paredes yet.

I really hope we get to see Shawn Dubin in the #Astros bullpen next season. He has some nasty stuff.

As a reliever he struck out 33 in 21.2 innings and allowed just a .164 BAA. He also allowed just 2 ER over his final 19 innings of the year. pic.twitter.com/cqvay8V6dL

— Astros Future (@AstrosFuture) November 5, 2021

Then if it doesn't work you add at the deadline again.

After the experience we've had with Scrubb and Parades putting up great numbers at AAA and laying eggs in the majors, we should be cautious reading too much into minor league pitching numbers. Those 2 guys were doing well in the minors because the batters chased a lot out of the zone. Guys in the majors don't do that. If he's a strike thrower and he's getting those numbers that way, great. Call him up.

Dunno what you define as great but Scrubb and Paredes were always walk machines.

https://www.mlb.com/news/seiya-suzuki-posted

He could be an interesting target, especially since he's only 27.

Farmer1906 said:

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Not everyone is just ready. Guys develop. We shouldn't give up on everyone because they're not perfect right away. That's a good way to blow your payroll on overpriced bullpen arms.

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I'm not saying give up on them. I think they were called up too early, but it was out of necessity given the scourge of injuries we had in 2020. Given the fact that the service time clock has started on them, the amount of runway for them to succeed is much shorter. I think at least Parades is a trade candidate who can be bundled with some others to either bring back a lower level prospect or go get a high end starter. I think if Scrubb can fix his location, he has value.

#reds announced that Wade Miley was claimed off waivers by the Cubs.

— Mark Sheldon (@m_sheldon) November 5, 2021

Didn't realize he was even DFA'd. If he performs well, it's almost a guarantee he doesn't finish the year with them.

Look, they all combined to have a very good year for us production wise, but they all have flaws. Meyers doesn't walk much and struck out 34.2% of the time while Chas struck out 36.6% of the time. Siri had similar K numbers in AAA and even worse in his brief stint in the bigs. For comparison, Javier Baez lead the NL in K's and struck out 36.2% of the time. I'm not saying to give up on them as they can get better and they are all very good defensively, but I also can't believe the Astros will go into 2022 with a bottom 3 of one of those guys, Machete and Pena / Leon. They have to upgrade one of those positions offensively and should not assume the offensive production they got from CF is sustainable.

Where are you getting K% from? Fangraphs shows Siri-34.7%, McCormick-32.5%, & Meyers-30.7%. The League average is 23.2%.

I'd be careful just grouping them all together. Siri has always had a K problem. Its one of the reasons I doubt he'll ever be an everyday big leaguer. Jake on the other hand had a .408 on base% in AAA this year.

Baseball reference. Meyers struck out 50 times in 146 AB and Chas 104 times in 284 AB's. I'm assuming they are using a formula based on plate appearances rather than AB's, but the general principle doesn't change much.

Why wouldn't they use PAs?

Jake's OBP was heavily aided by a BABIP of .392 in AAA. The major league average is typically around .300. I think he can be better than the average because of his speed and he makes a lot of hard contact, but .392 is totally unsustainable. He also had a minor league average OBP of .353, even with that monster season last year boosting him up.

Why does it matter? If you use PA's then Chas, Jake, and Siri's K% goes down but so does any player you compare him to. The point remains they K at a rate consistent with the guy who lead the league in strikeouts.

Are you content to ride with a bottom 3 in the order of Chas/Jake/Siri, Pena/Leon, and Machete/Castro? I think that's the most interesting question. I certainly don't mind our CF situation if you resign Correa, but if you lose Correa then I disagree with being satisfied with that 7-9 situation.