That would definitely be an interesting metric to see. How often a first pitch ball that's incorrectly called a strike leads to a strikeout.

I agree 100% that it changes the hitter's mindset but it also changes the pitcher's. The pitcher gets ahead and has the opportunity to work a little further outside the zone and see if they can get a chase or a called strike 2. If not, 1-1 is back to even and they still have all their options.

My postseason lineup

Against a lefty
1. Altuve 2B
2. Tucker RF (I like his speed here if he's recovered fully)
3. Yordan DH
4. Bregman 3B
5. Diaz 1B
6. Caratini C
7. Pena SS
8. Meyers CF
9. Dubon LF

Against a righty
1. Altuve 2B
2. Tucker RF
3. Yordan LF
4. Bregman 3B
5. Diaz C
6. Caratini DH
7. Singleton 1B
8. Pena SS
9. Meyers CF

dcaggie04 said:

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The strike zone is going to move up and down for each player. I expect that, so I'm a bit more forgiving on vertical strike/ball calls. Horizontal strike calls should be easy as they have a clear reference with the plate.

One thing to note, the vertical strike zone is why we don't have robo umps right now. They can't calculate the pitches to each individual strike zone in real time.

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One issue I've seen is that it actually calls too true of a zone. They've tried them in various minor leagues and breaking balls that are just at the knee at the front of the plate are called strikes. While technically true those pitches are never called a strike in games and a lot of these pitches can wind up almost bouncing by the time they reach the catcher. An example is the pitch that missed vs Soto in the 2019 WS just before pulling Greinke. Soto held off on a change up that was extremely close and drew a walk. The robo ump would've called him out based on the definition of the zone. If you're not going to call that a strike then you in essence have to redefine what the zone is for the computer.

tjack16 said:

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My postseason lineup

Against a lefty
1. Altuve 2B
2. Tucker RF (I like his speed here if he's recovered fully)
3. Yordan DH
4. Bregman 3B
5. Diaz 1B
6. Caratini C
7. Pena SS
8. Meyers CF
9. Dubon LF

Against a righty
1. Altuve 2B
2. Tucker RF
3. Yordan LF
4. Bregman 3B
5. Diaz C
6. Caratini DH
7. Singleton 1B
8. Pena SS
9. Meyers CF

---

The one point about Yordan batting 2nd is they are much less likely to intentionally walk him if there is only 1 out as opposed to 2 in the first inning.

so, is Brice Matthews your 2025 Astros starting 3B?

Bag said:

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so, is Brice Matthews your 2025 Astros starting 3B?

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I sure hope not. He's got a ways to go. His very tiny AAA sample ain't great. As of now he only has 48 games above high A.

Not including Dubon, Shay seems like the most likely internal candidate. I wouldn't count out Dezenzo just yet. He failed the first time up but he's murdering AAA.

Farmer1906 said:

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Bag said:

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so, is Brice Matthews your 2025 Astros starting 3B?

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I sure hope not. He's got a ways to go. His very tiny AAA sample ain't great. As of now he only has 48 games above high A.

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its only 20 ABs



and he pretty much crushed AA Corpus

I've wanted Tucker batting 2nd for a long time. I didn't put him there in my postseason lineup because I've given up.

txags92 said:

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Wabs said:

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Expected this to be more in SD's favor

Umpire: Brian O'Nora
Final: Astros 1, Padres 3#Relentless // #LetsGoPadres#HOUvsSD // #SDvsHOU

More stats for this game 👇https://t.co/PlNKpNiZ2b pic.twitter.com/yxR7DW9FIQ

— Umpire Scorecards (@UmpScorecards) September 17, 2024

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I think their metric dramatically underestimates the effect of a ball that is called a strike early in the at bat on the batter's mindset through the rest of the at bat. If they call a pitch outside the strike zone a strike early in the at bat, then the batter strikes out later in the at bat in a similar location because they can't assume it won't be called a strike again, it should count as an "unearned out" or something like that. I suspect the Astros would lead the league in unearned outs by a wide margin if that stat were measured for each game.

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To me that's one of the best reasons for robo-ump challenges if we can't get 100% robo-umps. First pitch is called a strike that's 6 inches off the plate. Tap your helmet 3 times, enjoy the public shaming of the ump when it's called a ball. Later in the AB same pitch location and no way blue is calling it a strike.

Repeat that hundreds of times with different umps and before you know it, they all will be calling MUCH better and accurate strike zones. The ones that don't improve continue to get shamed to the point where they hopefully quit. I'm looking at you Bucknor.

Farmer1906 said:

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I do not disagree with that; it's just that Brice is not ready. We have other bodies who will likely do much better.

Gun to my head, I would say Chapman's deal is larger than Bregman's upcoming one. There are scenarios where Bregman is back in Houston depending on how Crane feels and how the market sees him aging and how damaged his elbow is.

Maybe we let it ride at 3B and spend our money at another position of need.

---

So without digging deeply into obscure stats (which I am not as well versed on the advanced metrics anyway), is there a good way to tease out the impact a guy has on the actual outcome of the game versus being good at piling on stats when the game is already decided? Because my perception of Bregman lately is that he gets a lot of hits and HRs in games where we win by 5+ because everybody is hitting, but tends to disappear (or popup/gidp alot) in the 1-run games (along with the rest of the top of the lineup lately).

The question I keep asking myself is whether the team is winning big in those games because he is sparking the scoring, or is he padding stats in pile-on efforts and not having the overall impact on the W-L record that his stats might indicate? I keep seeing these "pitcher whisperer" stories coming out in the media (seeded by Boras I presume) and it makes me wonder if Boras is trying to improve perception of Bregman's value as a teammate to jack up his contract value.

ETA: I may be totally wrong about Bregman and his impact...which is why I am looking for a statistical metric that evaluates that. Just looking to compare my perception to the unbiased stats.

txags92 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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I do not disagree with that; it's just that Brice is not ready. We have other bodies who will likely do much better.

Gun to my head, I would say Chapman's deal is larger than Bregman's upcoming one. There are scenarios where Bregman is back in Houston depending on how Crane feels and how the market sees him aging and how damaged his elbow is.

Maybe we let it ride at 3B and spend our money at another position of need.

---

So without digging deeply into obscure stats (which I am not as well versed on the advanced metrics anyway), is there a good way to tease out the impact a guy has on the actual outcome of the game versus being good at piling on stats when the game is already decided? Because my perception of Bregman lately is that he gets a lot of hits and HRs in games where we win by 5+ because everybody is hitting, but tends to disappear (or popup/gidp alot) in the 1-run games (along with the rest of the top of the lineup lately).

The question I keep asking myself is whether the team is winning big in those games because he is sparking the scoring, or is he padding stats in pile-on efforts and not having the overall impact on the W-L record that his stats might indicate? I keep seeing these "pitcher whisperer" stories coming out in the media (seeded by Boras I presume) and it makes me wonder if Boras is trying to improve perception of Bregman's value as a teammate to jack up his contract value.

ETA: I may be totally wrong about Bregman and his impact...which is why I am looking for a statistical metric that evaluates that. Just looking to compare my perception to the unbiased stats.

---

Let us try a few.

Baseball Ref has all sorts of splits. I think this answers your question.



Not exactly what you're asking, but Fangraphs has (not sure who developed these originally) a win probably section that shows how much "win probability" they have contributed and how many runs above avg they contribute. 2024 is now kind to Breggy.



Context on the rest of the team (min 100 PA)




IMO Bregman is a key locker room guy that so many have been dubbed before (Springer, Correa, Straw - its true, Gurriel, Maldonado, JV, etc.). I don't think Breggy is some pitcher whisperer, I do think he greatly contributes to the team culture of communication across groups of players whether it be ethnically or positionally. He's just a baseball rat.

this would be the proper thing for idiot manfred to focus on....but he wont


I am all for 100% robo umps....screw these umps

Bag said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Bag said:

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so, is Brice Matthews your 2025 Astros starting 3B?

---

I sure hope not. He's got a ways to go. His very tiny AAA sample ain't great. As of now he only has 48 games above high A.

---

its only 20 ABs



and he pretty much crushed AA Corpus

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But even that was only 42 games. I think Brice was fairly raw when he was drafted. He's excelled and likely surpassed growth rate expectations. That doesn't mean he's ready to be the everyday 3B next year. If the org loves what they see and thinks he'll be ready by June, then maybe we roll with what we have. If the org isn't so sure they may feel pressured to get Bregman back or go out and trade for someone.

As expected, the most clutch hitters in the 2024 Astros lineup are (checks notes) Jon Singleton, Victor Caratini, and Mauricio Dubon.

Bregman's September OPS is .625

it's uncanny how predictable he is

with 12 games left...he's still on track for the lowest OPS and OPS+ of his career

his on-base % is .311

Altuve has a marginally higher walk rate than Bregman, 7.0 to 6.9%, that would have been a good longshot prop bet at the start of the year.

Breggy has a career walk rate of 12%

Farmer1906 said:

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Bag said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

Bag said:

---

so, is Brice Matthews your 2025 Astros starting 3B?

---

I sure hope not. He's got a ways to go. His very tiny AAA sample ain't great. As of now he only has 48 games above high A.

---

its only 20 ABs



and he pretty much crushed AA Corpus

---

But even that was only 42 games. I think Brice was fairly raw when he was drafted. He's excelled and likely surpassed growth rate expectations. That doesn't mean he's ready to be the everyday 3B next year. If the org loves what they see and thinks he'll be ready by June, then maybe we roll with what we have. If the org isn't so sure they may feel pressured to get Bregman back or go out and trade for someone.

---

was almost wondering if he might get a september call up to the bigs

Farmer1906 said:

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Not including Dubon, Shay seems like the most likely internal candidate. I wouldn't count out Dezenzo just yet. He failed the first time up but he's murdering AAA.

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From Astro Ketchum, doesn't seem we like Dezenzo or Whitcomb defensively at 3B. Can't say I was impressed with their defense in limited playing time. Think Dezenzo gets a crack at 1B (preferably with a platoon lefty) and Whitcomb might be a LF / future Dubon.

linkdude said:

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Altuve has a marginally higher walk rate than Bregman, 7.0 to 6.9%, that would have been a good longshot prop bet at the start of the year.

Breggy has a career walk rate of 12%

---

"Swing as soon as you humanly can" seems to have become contagious in the clubhouse this year.

Farmer1906 said:

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txags92 said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

I do not disagree with that; it's just that Brice is not ready. We have other bodies who will likely do much better.

Gun to my head, I would say Chapman's deal is larger than Bregman's upcoming one. There are scenarios where Bregman is back in Houston depending on how Crane feels and how the market sees him aging and how damaged his elbow is.

Maybe we let it ride at 3B and spend our money at another position of need.

---

So without digging deeply into obscure stats (which I am not as well versed on the advanced metrics anyway), is there a good way to tease out the impact a guy has on the actual outcome of the game versus being good at piling on stats when the game is already decided? Because my perception of Bregman lately is that he gets a lot of hits and HRs in games where we win by 5+ because everybody is hitting, but tends to disappear (or popup/gidp alot) in the 1-run games (along with the rest of the top of the lineup lately).

The question I keep asking myself is whether the team is winning big in those games because he is sparking the scoring, or is he padding stats in pile-on efforts and not having the overall impact on the W-L record that his stats might indicate? I keep seeing these "pitcher whisperer" stories coming out in the media (seeded by Boras I presume) and it makes me wonder if Boras is trying to improve perception of Bregman's value as a teammate to jack up his contract value.

ETA: I may be totally wrong about Bregman and his impact...which is why I am looking for a statistical metric that evaluates that. Just looking to compare my perception to the unbiased stats.

---

Let us try a few.

Baseball Ref has all sorts of splits. I think this answers your question.



Not exactly what you're asking, but Fangraphs has (not sure who developed these originally) a win probably section that shows how much "win probability" they have contributed and how many runs above avg they contribute. 2024 is now kind to Breggy.



Context on the rest of the team (min 100 PA)




IMO Bregman is a key locker room guy that so many have been dubbed before (Springer, Correa, Straw - its true, Gurriel, Maldonado, JV, etc.). I don't think Breggy is some pitcher whisperer, I do think he greatly contributes to the team culture of communication across groups of players whether it be ethnically or positionally. He's just a baseball rat.

---

Thanks. Those do shed some light, but I am not sure any of them really can tell whether we win because he hits well or he hits well when we are winning. But you are correct, that win percentage stat is not friendly to him. Wonder how much that factors into what folks like Dana Brown consider when looking at multi-year deals?

With our roster comp, Arraez. Need someone who consistently gets on base by any means necessary and/or makes enough contact to make productive outs.

From 27.77 to -3.05 in RE24 year-over-year is some real stinky stuff so I sure hope it factors in.

Farmer1906 said:

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Which season would you rather have? pic.twitter.com/2Q0UuhmVtS

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) September 17, 2024

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You look into it further and this season they have almost the same amount RBI and Runs scored. Luis only has 9 steals.

One is doing it with hits, one is doing it with walks.

Honestly, they are the same offensive player this year.

It's a shame Luis is slow, because if he was a threat to steal, he'd get the edge for sure.

Beat40 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Which season would you rather have? pic.twitter.com/2Q0UuhmVtS

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) September 17, 2024

---

You look into it further and this season they have almost the same amount RBI and Runs scored. Luis only has 9 steals.

One is doing it with hits, one is doing it with walks.

Honestly, they are the same offensive player this year.

It's a shame Luis is slow, because if he was a threat to steal, he'd get the edge for sure.

---

It also depends on where you're putting them in the lineup. Even though he doesn't run well I want Arraez hitting leadoff to set the table and Soler is a 5/6-hole guy depending on the roster.

I'm curious, does anyone know how a single versus a walk is calculated in WRC? One would think a base hit would be valued more as it typically has a greater chance of advancing runners and scoring runs.

TarponChaser said:

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Beat40 said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

Which season would you rather have? pic.twitter.com/2Q0UuhmVtS

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) September 17, 2024

---

You look into it further and this season they have almost the same amount RBI and Runs scored. Luis only has 9 steals.

One is doing it with hits, one is doing it with walks.

Honestly, they are the same offensive player this year.

It's a shame Luis is slow, because if he was a threat to steal, he'd get the edge for sure.

---

It also depends on where you're putting them in the lineup. Even though he doesn't run well I want Arraez hitting leadoff to set the table and Soler is a 5/6-hole guy depending on the roster.

---

Sure, but they have about the same runs scored this season and Luis has lead-off the just about the entire season.

Who you choose is dependent on the line-up you have, but they are basically the same offensive player this year.

I'd probably take Luis mostly because I would value him not striking out in a big situation, but Soler has the ability to drive himself in that Luis really doesn't.

Baseball is just funny in that two guys who seem completely opposite in just about every way can produce the same exact type of season.

Beat40 said:

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TarponChaser said:

---

Beat40 said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

Which season would you rather have? pic.twitter.com/2Q0UuhmVtS

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) September 17, 2024

---

You look into it further and this season they have almost the same amount RBI and Runs scored. Luis only has 9 steals.

One is doing it with hits, one is doing it with walks.

Honestly, they are the same offensive player this year.

It's a shame Luis is slow, because if he was a threat to steal, he'd get the edge for sure.

---

It also depends on where you're putting them in the lineup. Even though he doesn't run well I want Arraez hitting leadoff to set the table and Soler is a 5/6-hole guy depending on the roster.

---

Sure, but they have about the same runs scored this season and Luis has lead-off the just about the entire season.

Who you choose is dependent on the line-up you have, but they are basically the same offensive player this year.

I'd probably take Luis mostly because I would value him not striking out in a big situation, but Soler has the ability to drive himself in that Luis really doesn't.

Baseball is just funny in that two guys who seem completely opposite in just about every way can produce the same exact type of season.

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Overall lineup/roster matters for sure.

I haven't watched either this season so I don't know how many RBI opportunities either one has but if it's the bottom of the 9th, down 1, and a RISP I'm going with the guy who is going to make contact more often.