I know you're kidding, but poor ass Seattle ain't about to bring payroll up to the 160s-170s for Bregman.
***** Official Houston Astros 2024-2025 Offseason Thread *****
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Offensively, Blue Jays will stay flexible but people here at GM Meetings see the most likely spots for upgrade as corner OF, 2B & 3B in that order.
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) November 5, 2024
"In the order" kind of takes TOR out of the Bregman sweepstakes too.
Jeez, I just looked and saw the Blue Jays have 1 division title in the last 32 years.Farmer1906 said:Offensively, Blue Jays will stay flexible but people here at GM Meetings see the most likely spots for upgrade as corner OF, 2B & 3B in that order.
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) November 5, 2024
"In the order" kind of takes TOR out of the Bregman sweepstakes too.
Fangraphs Top 50 Free Agents
Quote:
Ben's Take
Bregman's MVP-contender days are probably over, but he still looks like a perennial All-Star to me, and he's somehow only 30 despite playing in the ALCS seven times already. But while his rsum is spectacular the Hall of Fame isn't out of the question, depending on how voters feel about the banging scheme a ton of red flags in his 2024 season have me lower on him than Adames on a going-forward basis.
His walk rate dropped by nearly half this year, and his contact quality also dipped slightly. He's never had sterling raw batted ball data, and without all the walks juicing his OBP, he's one-dimensional at the plate; his lift-and-pull approach is great for tucking homers into the Crawford Boxes, but it produces plenty of weak fly outs too. This was his worst offensive season other than two flukes: an injury-shortened 2021 and his abbreviated 2016 debut. He played his normal excellent defense at third, which acts as a nice value buffer, but he looks more like a complementary bat than the guy you build your offense around these days.
Maybe it's too simplistic of me, but I think Bregman will end up back on the Astros. He's part of the culture there, one of the few players who's been on the team for their entire run of excellence. They're at the tail end of a contention cycle, which fits well with his age. It fits with the team's goals, too; having your worst season in nearly a decade and then letting one of your best players go is a bad look. That's not to say there won't be another team that tries to get Bregman, but the path of least resistance involves a reunion with Houston.
Player Notes
From 2022-24, Bregman was one of the best third basemen in baseball. He might not have been peak juiced-ball Bregman, a player in the upper echelon of the sport at any position, but he was still among the best at the hot corner, delivering three straight four-plus win seasons. Bregman's appeal comes from being solid on both ends of the ball. His defense is very good (he just won his first Gold Glove and might boast some underappreciated versatility), he strikes out at a very low rate (94th-percentile strikeout rate), and he just posted a 118 wRC+. That mark was fifth among qualified third basemen in 2024 (and first among third base free agents), but it also constitutes a full-season career low. As Bregman enters free agency in advance of his age-31 season, what that offensive dip signals will be front and center. Is it a sign of the aging curve doing its work, or does Bregman's second half (134 wRC+) show he simply had to overcome some temporary early season struggles?
To answer that, I think you need to zoom in on the skill that has carried Bregman's offense during his long tenure in Houston: his success pulling the ball. Bregman's elite bat control has allowed him to take advantage of Houston's Crawford Boxes, but when you're heavily reliant on pull-side contact in the air, timing issues can impact your bat path and lead to the batted ball profile Bregman saw in April. Those issues aside, it seems like pulling the ball is still a skill he has in his bag. This season, his .492 wOBACON on pulled batted balls was in line with his 2023 (.486) and a tick behind his 2022 (.516). In the right park, he has a good chance of continuing his offensive prowess and providing top-of-the-position production. ER
The rest of the top 5 plus a few others of note.
He'd be a great backup plan if Bregman isn't brought back.
If we had someone in the system to plug in at 3B, I would probably rather pay for Pete than Breggy
More pricey than I was expecting. We will see what the market does.
Paying older 1B is scary after Abreu, but this could be worth it. Kim + Walker > Bregman?
The next Kikuchi?
Ultra hometown budget option at 1B?
I like a lot of the value options. Kim would be high on my list. He's very good defensively and I think there's meat on the bone offensively. Wouldn't give him 5 years but if you're looking at one of those $75M-ish deals then it seems a no brainer to go that route over Bregman.
I'd take Kooch or Pivetta and then trade Framber. I think you need cost certainty beyond this year at SP and Framber should net you a nice return.
I'd take Kooch or Pivetta and then trade Framber. I think you need cost certainty beyond this year at SP and Framber should net you a nice return.
I have always loved Goldschimdt as a player, but I suspect that the decline is real and that he is practically done.
That being said, even though I also like Christian Walker, he has a QO attached that could be problematic. One could argue that you could try to sign Goldy to a one-year "find out" deal and either have a good veteran first baseman, or at least a platoon partner for Singleton. Even this past year, Goldy still did a lot of damage against LHP, so this feels like a good fit.
To me, we have to upgrade one spot in the lineup, and I feel like that has to be LF. I am comfortable with running Chas back in CF, but we need to get real production out of our other corner spot. The problem is that the OF class is week once you get based the premium guys like Soto and Santander. I wonder if there are any trade possibilities workable here.
That being said, even though I also like Christian Walker, he has a QO attached that could be problematic. One could argue that you could try to sign Goldy to a one-year "find out" deal and either have a good veteran first baseman, or at least a platoon partner for Singleton. Even this past year, Goldy still did a lot of damage against LHP, so this feels like a good fit.
To me, we have to upgrade one spot in the lineup, and I feel like that has to be LF. I am comfortable with running Chas back in CF, but we need to get real production out of our other corner spot. The problem is that the OF class is week once you get based the premium guys like Soto and Santander. I wonder if there are any trade possibilities workable here.
What we’re hearing about the Astros at the GM Meetings - https://t.co/beXcHmYrDX
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) November 6, 2024
The Astros had had "internal discussions" on trading Ryan Pressly, per Chandler Rome. He has a full no-trade clause and he's slated to make $14M this year.
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) November 6, 2024
Hunter Brown also had extension talks with the Astros last fall, something I had heard as well. https://t.co/CFN5cDAtGn
Ketch had it first
Quote:
The Astros have had internal discussions about trading setup man Ryan Pressly, according to two people briefed on the conversations, perhaps a signal that Brown is exploring avenues to get further away from the luxury tax. Most outside approximations put the Astros around $10 million below the first threshold when accounting for their projected arbitration salaries.
Pressly will make $14 million next season, but his contract contains a full no-trade clause, giving him autonomy to veto or approve any potential deal. The situation would require both sides working together to find a suitable landing spot for Pressly, who turns 36 in December.
Asked on Tuesday afternoon whether he is exploring trading pieces of his major-league roster, Brown didn't dismiss the possibility.
"If we can use a major-league piece to get two pieces that will help us solve problems, I would welcome that if that deal shows up," Brown said. "But I don't want to trade major-league pieces and weaken the team. It has to make sense for the team and it has to feel like we're getting better."
$27 MM or $28 MM per season for Bregman seems like a very big risk -- after the first 2 years of the contract (post-2026)
Dana Brown, also: “I don’t know if we should be in the business of blaming coaches for a lack of production, particularly when these same players have had success with these same hitting coaches." - https://t.co/CX6UCbQVi4
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) November 6, 2024
Holy ****, wow, that message is being sent only 3-4 months too late! Thanks, Dana!
I hope Dana is planning on bringing in some new hitters
They need to structure it like Altuve, he drops from $33m to $13m his last 2 years.W said:
$27 MM or $28 MM per season for Bregman seems like a very big risk -- after the first 2 years of the contract (post-2026)
Any smoke to this, Ketch? Would assume that this wouldn't get in the way of other negotiations since it's more of a long term play.
He has 4 more years left on his deal and we have him fairly cheap for his prime. No reason to tack on right now.
No idea who that is honestly. Wouldn't make much sense to extend him right now.
TRM said:
Get your applications in.
https://www.teamworkonline.com/baseball-jobs/houstonbaseball/houston-astros/research-analyst-research-development-2076968
Last week we put liquid paper on a bee…..and it died.
Demonstrated work ethic, passion for baseball, and strong baseball knowledge, including familiarity with current baseball research and analysis is preferredTRM said:
Get your applications in.
https://www.teamworkonline.com/baseball-jobs/houstonbaseball/houston-astros/research-analyst-research-development-2076968
I'm out.
My offseason plans:
Plan A
Plan B
Plan B.2
Plan C
Plan D
Parts of all the plans:
Plan A
- Bring back Breggy. (5/140 or 6/162) No explanation is needed. This deal eats up the large majority of the FA money.
- Sign Paul Goldschmidt to platoon at 1B with Singleton. He was just league-average last year, but he hit 134 wRC+ vs LHP (Singleton 124 vs RHP). He's already made 163 M. He's from the Woodlands. He's already 37. Come on home on the cheap.
- Being back Jason Heyward or Ben Gamel. Someone cheap and left-handed to play some corner OF.
Plan B
- Bregman leaves and the market at 3B is dry. Like really dry.
- Sign Kim. (5/100 or 4/74) He plays elite anywhere in the INF. His offense is league avg, but we can't afford to have a hole in the lineup. We don't lose a step on defense and don't have to commit 160+ M.
- Sign Christian Walker to be the everyday 1B. (3/51 or 3/54) Above Avg on O. Pretty damn strong on D at 1B. Aging perfectly well.
- Same in the OF. Cheap LHH.
Plan B.2
- Same as above (Bregman gone, Kim signed), but no Walker.
- Don't go cheap in the OF. Get Profar. (3/45) Broke out last year. Risk him being able to do it again.
- Platoon Dezenzo & Singleton at 1B.
Plan C
- Bregman leaves. Make do with Dubon and minor leagues at 3B.
- Go get the Polar Bear. (7/140 or 5/125)
- Same in the OF. Cheap LHH.
Plan D
- Bregman leaves. Make do with Dubon and minor leagues at 3B.
- Platoon Singleton & Dezenzo.
- Give Soto 600 M and let's ride. (12/576 or 13/585)
- Trade Tucker for prospects.
Parts of all the plans:
- Trade Pressly. Get the money off the books.
- Get more arms. Whoever we can project. Don't send crazy money.
Farmer1906 said:
My offseason plans:
Plan A
- Bring back Breggy. (5/140 or 6/162) No explanation is needed. This deal eats up the large majority of the FA money.
- Sign Paul Goldschmidt to platoon at 1B with Singleton. He was just league-average last year, but he hit 134 wRC+ vs LHP (Singleton 124 vs RHP). He's already made 163 M. He's from the Woodlands. He's already 37. Come on home on the cheap.
- Being back Jason Heyward or Ben Gamel. Someone cheap and left-handed to play some corner OF.
Plan B
- Bregman leaves and the market at 3B is dry. Like really dry.
- Sign Kim. (5/100 or 4/74) He plays elite anywhere in the INF. His offense is league avg, but we can't afford to have a hole in the lineup. We don't lose a step on defense and don't have to commit 160+ M.
- Sign Christian Walker to be the everyday 1B. (3/51 or 3/54) Above Avg on O. Pretty damn strong on D at 1B. Aging perfectly well.
- Same in the OF. Cheap LHH.
Plan B.2
- Same as above (Bregman gone, Kim signed), but no Walker.
- Don't go cheap in the OF. Get Profar. (3/45) Broke out last year. Risk him being able to do it again.
- Platoon Dezenzo & Singleton at 1B.
Plan C
- Bregman leaves. Make do with Dubon and minor leagues at 3B.
- Go get the Polar Bear. (7/140 or 5/125)
- Same in the OF. Cheap LHH.
Plan D
- Bregman leaves. Make do with Dubon and minor leagues at 3B.
- Platoon Singleton & Dezenzo.
- Give Soto 600 M and let's ride. (12/576 or 13/585)
- Trade Tucker for prospects.
Parts of all the plans:
- Trade Pressly. Get the money off the books.
- Get more arms. Whoever we can project. Don't send crazy money.
Give me D please. Pretty sure we could get 1B and 3B ready to play prospects from Baltimore for Tucker
No sure if this was posted or not.
MLB Trade Rumors, Top 50 FA Predictions:
MLB Trade Rumors, Top 50 FA Predictions:
Quote:
3. Alex Bregman: Seven years, $182MM
Tim: Blue Jays / Anthony: Astros / Darragh: Astros / Steve: Mariners
Quote:
13. Christian Walker: Three years, $60MM
Tim: Tigers / Anthony: Yankees / Darragh: Yankees / Steve: Astros
Quote:
35. Paul Goldschmidt: One year, $15MM
Tim: Astros / Anthony: Diamondbacks / Darragh: Tigers / Steve: Diamondbacks
Quote:
39. Michael Soroka: Two years, $14MM
Tim: Astros / Anthony: Brewers / Darragh: Dodgers / Steve: Dodgers
Not gunna lie, I kind of like the Soroka lotto ticket.
He would be more than we could afford but I would take Santander.
Switch hitter who hits piss missiles. Low BA and not great D but he kills baseballs.
Switch hitter who hits piss missiles. Low BA and not great D but he kills baseballs.
Out of those plans, give me plan D. I'd throw in trading Framber as well. He and Tucker should bring in some very nice young talent.
I'll take your word for itMathguy64 said:
He would be more than we could afford but I would take Santander.
Switch hitter who hits piss missiles. Low BA and not great D but he kills baseballs.
the pundits expect Bregman to get a 7-year contract?
he turns 31 years old in March
he turns 31 years old in March
That's what he likely gets actually. 6 minimum
I'd be ok with a 6 year deal for Breggy. Less money in the last 2 years.
I could see that.Wabs said:
I'd be ok with a 6 year deal for Breggy. Less money in the last 2 years.
Something like:
12 signing bonus
28
28
24
24
20
20
Altuve is getting:
15 signing bonus
30
30
30
10
10
Farmer1906 said:I could see that.Wabs said:
I'd be ok with a 6 year deal for Breggy. Less money in the last 2 years.
Something like:
12 signing bonus
28
28
24
24
20
20
Altuve is getting:
15 signing bonus
30
30
30
10
10
Do
15 signing
30
30
26
26
15
10
That's 6/152. It lets him basically get to retirement as an Astro. If he's somehow magically playing well enough in year 5 you can add a year on. It also makes the last year plus small enough that they could eat it if the decline on the field is that big.
Could we do 6 with a mutual option year 7?
2025-2030: $25M
2031: $20M option
So 7 years/$170M with the option
2025-2030: $25M
2031: $20M option
So 7 years/$170M with the option