Because you'd be betting on his 2024 type seasons moving forward. His batted ball numbers were fantastic. Maybe something got figured out and he's reached a new level.
***** Official Houston Astros 2024-2025 Offseason Thread *****
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Last: 3 min ago by Quo Vadis?
Farmer1906 said:
Because you'd be betting on his 2024 type seasons moving forward. His batted ball numbers were fantastic. Maybe something got figured out and he's reached a new level.
I would want to see two consecutive seasons of that kind of performance before spending big on him. Let's face it, it's not like the Astros hitting coaches are offensive savant's who can help guys improve.
Yeah, I admit that Profar makes me nervous as well. The underlying metrics suggest that last year was not lucky - the quality of his contact greatly improved. But he is not young and that makes me skeptical of his ability to repeat it and not fall back into his historical mediocrity.
IF it is a real improvement, then his value is much higher than other options because he gets on base at a much higher clip.
If not, then you have an overpriced player who is mediocre offensively and poor defensively.
As a hypothetical GM, that would make me HIGHLY hesitant to commit. But if someone gambles and hits it could be tremendous value.
IF it is a real improvement, then his value is much higher than other options because he gets on base at a much higher clip.
If not, then you have an overpriced player who is mediocre offensively and poor defensively.
As a hypothetical GM, that would make me HIGHLY hesitant to commit. But if someone gambles and hits it could be tremendous value.
It's possible. Plenty of guys in the history of the game that people have thought have figured something out in a contract year to then never hit those numbers again. I'm not saying he hasn't figured something out, but his history tells us he isn't the 2024 guy. It's not like we only have 2 or 3 years to look at - we have 10 years before last year. I'm highly skeptical because most guys just don't improve the way Profar did 11 years into their career and then sustain it.Farmer1906 said:
Because you'd be betting on his 2024 type seasons moving forward. His batted ball numbers were fantastic. Maybe something got figured out and he's reached a new level.
I'm not paying him $45/3yrs like I've seen projected. I think you have to trade Pressly given his attitude at the end of the season, but if part of that Pressly trade means getting rid of Caratini to help shed payroll as rumored, and then what would have been paid both of them goes to Profar, I think that's stupid and bad cash management. I personally think Caratini adds more value than his contract to the Astros.
If you bet on his 2024 season being who he is, and he is that guy for the life of the contract, then paying him is worth it. If he doesn't perform at 2024 levels, based on the last 3 years I've shown, you're drastically overpaying for Jake Meyers or slightly better than Jake Meyers. The gamble doesn't seem worth it to me and seems like bad cash management.
Getting closer to the Jim Crane 'F it, I'm all in' part of free agency.
How is Paredes going to play LF when he's never played LF in the majors or minors?
Life is better with a beagle
Not to mention Bregman means you have one lefty in your lineup. Seems like this idea goes in the "right f you have to" bucket rather than something we should be actively pursuing.The Porkchop Express said:
How is Paredes going to play LF when he's never played LF in the majors or minors?
Haha I was surprised when I looked and saw that as well.
But, for whatever reason, they think he has the skill set to get accumulated fast.
But, for whatever reason, they think he has the skill set to get accumulated fast.
texasaggie2015 said:
They've been after Parades for a while now and a part of the reason is they see him as a versatile guy who can play a handful of positions. They love that kind of player. He hasn't seen much time in the corner outfield, but they believe he has the skillset to be at worst an average glove there.
There were internal discussions at some point during the offseason about what they would do if they happened to land him as well as Bregman/Arenado and Walker. Parades would play nearly every day at LF or second base as they want both Yordan and Altuve to get time at DH this year if at all possible.
Was it ever likely they would land all three of those guys? No.. but they had a plan.
Regardless, Parades' versatility gives the Astros options when/if Matthews and Smith are ready depending on what position they stick at. They've already discussed what an extension would look like with him.
Great info, always appreciate your insight
While I'm excited about the prospects of what the offense could potentially do this year, I just can't get over the retention of Cintron/Snitker.
Way too often over large stretches of the last 3 seasons, the team has fallen into funks and it appears that there are no adjustments to the approach at the plate. It feels like our hitting coaching staff is a step or two behind opposing pitching scouting/strategy in almost every series.
I'm fairly certain they were fired after the playoffs in '22 if not for the team catching fire in October. They were pretty rough in '23 and absolutely putrid last year where it felt like (this is without me looking at the numbers and going off memory, meaning recency bias could definitely be at-play here) the majority of the lineup had career-worst years.
Way too often over large stretches of the last 3 seasons, the team has fallen into funks and it appears that there are no adjustments to the approach at the plate. It feels like our hitting coaching staff is a step or two behind opposing pitching scouting/strategy in almost every series.
I'm fairly certain they were fired after the playoffs in '22 if not for the team catching fire in October. They were pretty rough in '23 and absolutely putrid last year where it felt like (this is without me looking at the numbers and going off memory, meaning recency bias could definitely be at-play here) the majority of the lineup had career-worst years.
Just happy to be here
Cintron got here in '18, Snitker in '19.The Beef01 said:
While I'm excited about the prospects of what the offense could potentially do this year, I just can't get over the retention of Cintron/Snitker.
Way too often over large stretches of the last 3 seasons, the team has fallen into funks and it appears that there are no adjustments to the approach at the plate. It feels like our hitting coaching staff is a step or two behind opposing pitching scouting/strategy in almost every series.
I'm fairly certain they were fired after the playoffs in '22 if not for the team catching fire in October. They were pretty rough in '23 and absolutely putrid last year where it felt like (this is without me looking at the numbers and going off memory, meaning recency bias could definitely be at-play here) the majority of the lineup had career-worst years.
Since 2018 we rank 2nd to the Dodgers in wRC+ @ 113 (Dodgers @ 114).
All seasons / teams (210):
2. 2019 HOU 124
17. 2021 HOU 115
22. 2022 HOU 113
24. 2023 HOU 112
31. 2024 HOU 111
36. 2018 HOU 110
115. 2020 HOU 97
Outside of the covid shortened season, our offense has been good to great.
Cintron's and Snitker's main job is to help the average to below average hitters become better / passble MLB hitters
get Jake, Chas, Dubon, Pena, et al to show significant improvement
anyone could be Yordan's hitting coach -- that's easy
get Jake, Chas, Dubon, Pena, et al to show significant improvement
anyone could be Yordan's hitting coach -- that's easy
Call me crazy, but given the current roster I'd rather have Santander than Bregman and I think it's a better use of resources.
I am pretty pumped about Cam Smith's future.
Cam Smith Prospect Breakdown
Fast Track to Major Leagues
Cam Smith With Best Professional Debut
Cam Smith Prospect Breakdown
Quote:
Smith had an impressive 2024 calendar year. After dominating the ACC, he helped lead his team to a College World Series appearance, then proceeded to enter pro ball and continue his domination. Smith checks the boxed you want out of an elite hitter. He makes a ton of contact with impressive plate discipline. He combines those skills with double plus raw power, and it is easy to see why he was so productive in his 1st season. The best part for Smith, is there is still progress to be made. If he can make the swing and miss adjustments he made in one offseason, there is no reason to imagine he can't do the same with his groundball tendencies. At the very least, Smith has the traits to be a productive offensive piece in the MLB soon (think Yandy Daz production), but if he starts hitting the ball in the air? Well, Cub fans will be happy about their 1st round selection.
Fast Track to Major Leagues
Cam Smith With Best Professional Debut
Quote:
More praise for the Chicago Cubs' first round draft pick, Cam Smith, who arguably outperformed almost every if not every college bat taken ahead of him at pick 14.
That's not just my statistical analysis, by the way, nor is it necessarily exclusive to college bats. Keith Law tabbed Smith's performance as the best pro debut of the year:Quote:
"Smith, the No. 14 pick this July, hit .315/.400/.622 in 130 PA across three levels, finishing in Double A, with just a 17.7 percent strikeout rate. On Aug. 20, he was still in Low A, but from that point on he played in 22 games and had hits in 20 of them despite the two promotions while striking out just 13 times in 99 PA.
The Cubs have had quite a bit of success in the first round the past few years, with Matt Shaw, Cade Horton (when healthy), and Jordan Wicks their last three top selections; Smith looks like he'll continue that winning streak."
That was before Law knew he was gonna be an Astro
I made sure to pull from articles pretrade. No orange and blue colored glasses.
Ken Rosenthal on Foul Territory on Bregman:
- Blue Jays are in on it, but he may not want to go there with the fact that they can't seem to extend their own players and the future competitiveness is in doubt
- Tigers are in, but they have a 3B prospect (Josh Jung's younger brother) on the way, and they may be gun shy in giving out long contracts after getting burned by Javy Baez (only signed a few 1 yr deals so far)
- Red Sox may be, but he'd have to move to 2B, but they may not be willing to spend the money (only have made moves that wouldn't be financially burdensome)
- Blue Jays are in on it, but he may not want to go there with the fact that they can't seem to extend their own players and the future competitiveness is in doubt
- Tigers are in, but they have a 3B prospect (Josh Jung's younger brother) on the way, and they may be gun shy in giving out long contracts after getting burned by Javy Baez (only signed a few 1 yr deals so far)
- Red Sox may be, but he'd have to move to 2B, but they may not be willing to spend the money (only have made moves that wouldn't be financially burdensome)
The Dodgers have signed Hye-Seong Kim from the KBO pic.twitter.com/SUVPsOmNsa
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) January 3, 2025
Rich get richer
Man, I'm starting to feel bad for Alex. He and Boras misplayed this badly.
I'll be a fan of his wherever he goes, except for the Yankees or Dodgers.
I'll be a fan of his wherever he goes, except for the Yankees or Dodgers.
EastCoastAgNc said:The Dodgers have signed Hye-Seong Kim from the KBO pic.twitter.com/SUVPsOmNsa
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) January 3, 2025
Rich get richer
They get richer by not spending any money. It's insane how they can do this.
Maybe this is what baseball needs -- an all-star team that demolishes the rest of the league repeatedly to the point the players on other teams and the teams themselves realize they can't compete -- so then they favor a salary cap and floor to keep things competitive.
Some love for Bobby Abreu. He is criminally underrated.
#Phillies Bobby Abreu and Bryce Harper through 13 seasons. pic.twitter.com/AEF3d45myp
— Ryan M. Spaeder (@theaceofspaeder) January 3, 2025
I really think the Dodgers are going to go on an insane run. Like 7 WS out of the next 10 type of thing. They are the smartest, richest, best deleloping, best scouting, etc.
Wooden UCLA, Bill Russell Celtics, 1920s Yankees .
Good thing for us we play in the AL, decent chance they can slip up in a 5/7 games series despite being an other worldly juggernaut.
Wooden UCLA, Bill Russell Celtics, 1920s Yankees .
Good thing for us we play in the AL, decent chance they can slip up in a 5/7 games series despite being an other worldly juggernaut.
Is there a scenario where the Astros could still be in on Bregman at this price? If so, put him at shortstop and move Jeremy Peña. Nobody would have a problem with that.
Don't think you'd want Breggy at shortstop. Nowhere near agile enough at this point unfortunately.
The problem is that I would guess most of these players value the bottom line (their next contract) more than they value being competitive and winning. Having a big spender, even if they don't spend it on you only raises their potential contract with the threat of a team like the Dodgers being willing to overspend.agproducer said:
Maybe this is what baseball needs -- an all-star team that demolishes the rest of the league repeatedly to the point the players on other teams and the teams themselves realize they can't compete -- so then they favor a salary cap and floor to keep things competitive.
I just don't see how players ever agree to a salary cap with how strong the MLB union is. The only way to get it done would be through a long labor shutdown that could kill the sport all together.
Bregs at SS would be a disaster.
I don't feel all that bad for Alex. He's turned down a hell of a lot of money to play baseball. We know the initial public offer the Astros made, and we don't know the value of the 2nd offer the Astros made to him.agproducer said:
Man, I'm starting to feel bad for Alex. He and Boras misplayed this badly.
I'll be a fan of his wherever he goes, except for the Yankees or Dodgers.
He's got his sights set on what he thinks he's worth, apparently didn't pay attention to the Matt Chapman free agency last year, and appears willing to ride it out gambling someone will pay. Can't fault him for that, but I don't feel bad for a guy who turns down $150M+ after getting paid $100M at age 25/26.
Edit for: I'll be a fan of his, even if he goes to the Yankees or Dodgers. I'll hope the Yankees and Dodgers lose if he goes to them, but I'd like to see him do well, even if he's on those two teams.
texasaggie2015,
have you been hearing anything that would lead you to believe Crane is willing to go over the luxury tax threshold for someone like the rumored Santander?
crane just saying "**** it" and going all-in would be awesome but I would understand his hesitancy.
have you been hearing anything that would lead you to believe Crane is willing to go over the luxury tax threshold for someone like the rumored Santander?
crane just saying "**** it" and going all-in would be awesome but I would understand his hesitancy.
The last thing I heard was he's not willing to go over. That can obviously change but I haven't heard otherwise as of today.
That's why the Santander buzz makes me wonder if they're getting closer to finding a trade partner for Pressly and Caratini.
That's why the Santander buzz makes me wonder if they're getting closer to finding a trade partner for Pressly and Caratini.
The more I look at it, the more I don't see how we stay under with any significant signing.
Baseball Prospectus has us at 241.9 M
If we trade Pressly & Caratini we get down to 221.9 M. We would have win a few arbitration cases and then trade someone like Chad or Jake to safety stay under the tax & function normally.
Baseball Prospectus has us at 241.9 M
If we trade Pressly & Caratini we get down to 221.9 M. We would have win a few arbitration cases and then trade someone like Chad or Jake to safety stay under the tax & function normally.
It really is interesting.
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