***** Official Houston Astros 2024-2025 Offseason Thread *****

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AggieJ2002
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In reply to W • 12:38a, 2/1/25
AG
W said:
as for example...compared to Anthony Rendon who signed on December 11th is his free agent offseason

for a ridiculous amount of money


I feel like Rendon has done the most damage of anyone for future MLB players and is example A for teams not to make those deals. He really has cost a lot of players a lot of money IMO
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tjack16
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6:43a, 2/1/25
AG
I don't think Arenado would be that bad this season… just not nearly worth the money he will be making, especially in year 2-3

I'd be more willing to do it if he were a 2 year contract guy
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Beat40
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In reply to tjack16 • 8:30a, 2/1/25
tjack16 said:
I don't think Arenado would be that bad this season… just not nearly worth the money he will be making, especially in year 2-3

I'd be more willing to do it if he were a 2 year contract guy


Most likely the defense will stay, but go check out his OPS the last 5 years.
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tjack16
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In reply to Beat40 • 8:38a, 2/1/25
AG
Beat40 said:
tjack16 said:
I don't think Arenado would be that bad this season… just not nearly worth the money he will be making, especially in year 2-3

I'd be more willing to do it if he were a 2 year contract guy


Most likely the defense will stay, but go check out his OPS the last 5 years.


.797 over last 4 seasons with STL… that's not terrible. Also an all star 3 of the last 4 years.
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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to Beat40 • 8:40a, 2/1/25
AG

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tjack16
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 8:41a, 2/1/25
AG
Our ballpark would help the power numbers hopefully so I could see him playing at his 2023 level this upcoming year… but then falling off.
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EastCoastAgNc
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8:46a, 2/1/25
AG
Yeah it's a small sample size, but he's not good in the playoffs
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Beat40
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In reply to tjack16 • 8:46a, 2/1/25
Brother, I asked over the 5 years. .786 over the last 5 years, which, I agree, isn't terrible. However 2022 is the outlier, and if you take that out, is 0.760.

He's clearly declined from who he was. Several weeks back Farmer posted where his measurables also have clearly fallen off.

If the main purpose for getting him is his defense, then ok. But he doesn't make the offense better.
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tjack16
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In reply to Beat40 • 8:50a, 2/1/25
AG
Beat40 said:
Brother, I asked over the 5 years. .786 over the last 5 years, which, I agree, isn't terrible. However 2022 is the outlier, and if you take that out, is 0.760.

He's clearly declined from who he was. Several weeks back Farmer posted where his measurables also have clearly fallen off.

If the main purpose for getting him is his defense, then ok. But he doesn't make the offense better.


Sorry 5 years included 2020 and that's hard to include given how short that sample size was. Luke Voit led the majors in homeruns, Altuve hit .219 and Abreu won MVP…. I don't count stats from that season

If we discount 2020, and just count full seasons … then in 2019 his OPS was .962
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Beat40
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In reply to tjack16 • 8:51a, 2/1/25
tjack16 said:
Our ballpark would help the power numbers hopefully so I could see him playing at his 2023 level this upcoming year… but then falling off.


According to baseball reference, his hard hit % from 2015-2019 was about 44%. The last 5 years it was about 36%. 8% drop.

Last year his hard hit % was 31.7%.

I'm not sure even the Ice Box will help his power numbers.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to tjack16 • 8:54a, 2/1/25
AG
And 2019 was nearly 6 years ago to be fair.

His decline is concerning and if we can't get Bregman I really hope we find a way to add to the outfield instead of going the Arenado route. They're serious about him and I can't figure out why.
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tjack16
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 8:55a, 2/1/25
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
And 2019 was nearly 6 years ago to be fair.

His decline is concerning and if we can't get Bregman I really hope we find a way to add to the outfield instead of going the Arenado route. They're serious about him and I can't figure out why.


Let me preface my earlier post by saying it's not the best move to get him… but I don't think it would be as awful as people are making it out to be. He'd be overpaid but not a liability like Abreu was
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Beat40
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In reply to tjack16 • 8:58a, 2/1/25
The point is he's a completely different offensive player the last 5 years, and his measurable aren't the same. They are declining.

Again, if it's for his defense for 2-3 years, that's fine, but his offense doesn't make the lineup better.

My opinion is he's slightly above average right now when you combine his offense and defense together, but I don't think his offense will improve drastically over the next 2-3 years.

I'm ok with the trade if STL eats a good portion of this salary the next 2-3 years, otherwise I don't think the move is worth it when you have Paredes and you need outfield help a whole lot more. Arenado isn't a move the needle guy to me anymore.
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Beat40
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In reply to tjack16 • 9:02a, 2/1/25
tjack16 said:
texasaggie2015 said:
And 2019 was nearly 6 years ago to be fair.

His decline is concerning and if we can't get Bregman I really hope we find a way to add to the outfield instead of going the Arenado route. They're serious about him and I can't figure out why.


Let me preface my earlier post by saying it's not the best move to get him… but I don't think it would be as awful as people are making it out to be. He'd be overpaid but not a liability like Abreu was


The only reason I wouldn't call him a liability is because of this defense. But the offense guy he is now is not close to the contract of $260M/8. Not sure the offense guy who he is now is even worth $20M/yr. STL would have to hear 50% of this annual salary for the rest of his contract to make it worth it for me.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 9:09a, 2/1/25
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:



It's almost like playing in Colorado is like having a built in cheat code.

Arenado will not be Abreu bad but he's definitely starting to lose the battle with Father Time. The only question is whether the Crawford Boxes would help offset that.
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Wabs
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9:13a, 2/1/25
AG
I honestly don't know why Arenado is even in the conversation. Is it because we're looking for a way to shed more payroll (Montero, others?) in the trade? If so, that seems like a really dumb reason - unless STL is willing to eat a significant portion of Arenado's salary. And I just don't see them doing that.

We don't need a third baseman. The only reason Breggy is in the conversation is because he was an Astro, Altuve loves him, and he is great clubhouse guy. Plus, he will be better than Arenado from here on out. It's worth actually considering other defensive moves (Altuve LF, Paredes 2B) to bring him back. I would not do all that for Arenado. I'd rather just roll with what we have.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 9:18a, 2/1/25
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
I'll actually be really surprised if that's the opening day outfield.

I think either Altuve is in LF on opening day and either Bregman or Arenado are at third base or they make a trade for an OF by then.

Confidence level fairly high but not quite high enough to call my shot just yet.


In case anyone missed it yesterday.

Any Arenado deal would include Montero from what I'm told.
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Ag4life80
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9:22a, 2/1/25
AG
Bregman 's production would most certainly take a significant drop in Detroit with that ballpark. They need him after getting burned at SS, but he's a 15 homer guy there.

On another note, race horses are an expensive hobby.
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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 10:00a, 2/1/25
AG
Are you hearing anything different on Alex than what's being reported out there?
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Bobby Jimbo
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12:05p, 2/1/25
AG
Is it realistically possible to acquire Arenado without crossing the luxury tax threshold?
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SeanDaAg2005
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12:39p, 2/1/25
AG
Why do we want arenado again?
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MaxPower
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In reply to SeanDaAg2005 • 12:47p, 2/1/25
Nobody knows
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Mr. Awesome Time
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12:53p, 2/1/25
Arenado sounds like a "name" Crane may be fixated on if Alex doesn't return, but I'm just speculating.
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OPAG
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1:04p, 2/1/25
AG
I thought Parades was acquired to play third base to replace Bregs, so why would there be any interest in Arenado?

"only one thing is important!"
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htxag09
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In reply to OPAG • 1:42p, 2/1/25
AG
OPAG said:
I thought Parades was acquired to play third base to replace Bregs, so why would there be any interest in Arenado?


Yeah. We're trying to put a square peg in a round hole. I get it with Bregman. Don't with arenado. Just get an OF…
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Mathguy64
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1:42p, 2/1/25
AG
All I can figure is they think a 2-3 year solution to the lack of quality OFer is to move Tuve to LF, Parades to 2B and have a 3B on hand. Either Bregman or Arenado.

I think an easier and cheaper solution would have been to find an appropriate OFer.
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W
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2:15p, 2/1/25
AG
Arenado's name popping up again...

do we know the whereabouts of the former players cabal?

this sounds like a former players thing -- they love the old guys -- washed up or not
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BCEDAg
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2:28p, 2/1/25
AG
This Arenado stuff makes no sense whatsoever. Then can someone explain why we acquired Parades?
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MaxPower
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 2:47p, 2/1/25
Mathguy64 said:
All I can figure is they think a 2-3 year solution to the lack of quality OFer is to move Tuve to LF, Parades to 2B and have a 3B on hand. Either Bregman or Arenado.

I think an easier and cheaper solution would have been to find an appropriate OFer.
Stop making sense
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AggiEE
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In reply to BCEDAg • 3:30p, 2/1/25
BCEDAg said:
This Arenado stuff makes no sense whatsoever. Then can someone explain why we acquired Parades?

It makes sense in terms of what the Astros value. Many of their pitchers are ground ball pitchers, and having a solid defense on the infield is important.

Altuve is one of the worst 2B in baseball and it was on full display last year. They want to get him out to the OF in LF which is not as crucial of a position.

So getting Arenado or Bregman will help the team becuse Peredes is a better 2B than Altuve, and Bregman/Aranado are better 3B than Peredes. You get one of the best infield defenses in baseball.

If Alex doesn't sign, Arenado can make a lot of sense assuming the price is right.
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Mr. Awesome Time
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4:01p, 2/1/25
Might as well try to trade for Donovan as well if we go the Arenado route.
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Big Al 1992
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4:21p, 2/1/25
AG
Crazy that it's February and Bregman hasn't found a team. And there's zero bidding war for his services.
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Hornbeck
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4:24p, 2/1/25
AG
Well, to be fair, he's only an asset on the offense after May…
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BCEDAg
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4:43p, 2/1/25
AG
Curious on how Arenado's offensive stats in April and May are compared to Bregman. Can't be much worse.
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Mathguy64
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4:47p, 2/1/25
AG
So suppose you could get Arenado for Montero and someone else and stay under the tax for 2 years.

Or resign Bregman and go over the tax for 2 years and incur the penalties.

What would you do? That's a hell of a question.
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