MaxPower said:

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I was against the Pressly extension at the time. He was already under contract for another year and at his age it made sense to wait and see what he did.

But regardless that wasn't my point. We aren't willing to give our own stars $162M. What makes you think we would have done that if Freeman was available when we signed Abreu? We have a rather lengthy history of giving 2-3 year deals for guys in their mid 30's but 0 history of giving any free agent 5+ years.

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curious who you think the Astros should've signed to a massive contract that is no longer with the team? I can't think of a single one who deserved/earned and have lived up to the contract they received in free agency after leaving the Astros.

AustinCountyAg said:

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MaxPower said:

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I was against the Pressly extension at the time. He was already under contract for another year and at his age it made sense to wait and see what he did.

But regardless that wasn't my point. We aren't willing to give our own stars $162M. What makes you think we would have done that if Freeman was available when we signed Abreu? We have a rather lengthy history of giving 2-3 year deals for guys in their mid 30's but 0 history of giving any free agent 5+ years.

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curious who you think the Astros should've signed to a massive contract that is no longer with the team? I can't think of a single one who deserved/earned and have lived up to the contract they received in free agency after leaving the Astros.

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Gerrit Cole with three top 4 cy young finishes in New York would be my vote. Although I don't think even if we matched/beat new York's offer he would have stayed.

tjack16 said:

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AustinCountyAg said:

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MaxPower said:

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I was against the Pressly extension at the time. He was already under contract for another year and at his age it made sense to wait and see what he did.

But regardless that wasn't my point. We aren't willing to give our own stars $162M. What makes you think we would have done that if Freeman was available when we signed Abreu? We have a rather lengthy history of giving 2-3 year deals for guys in their mid 30's but 0 history of giving any free agent 5+ years.

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curious who you think the Astros should've signed to a massive contract that is no longer with the team? I can't think of a single one who deserved/earned and have lived up to the contract they received in free agency after leaving the Astros.

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Gerrit Cole with three top 4 cy young finishes in New York would be my vote. Although I don't think even if we matched/beat new York's offer he would have stayed.

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touch. I forgot about him. He might be the only one.

MaxPower said:

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I was against the Pressly extension at the time. He was already under contract for another year and at his age it made sense to wait and see what he did.

But regardless that wasn't my point. We aren't willing to give our own stars $162M. What makes you think we would have done that if Freeman was available when we signed Abreu? We have a rather lengthy history of giving 2-3 year deals for guys in their mid 30's but 0 history of giving any free agent 5+ years.

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He would have been a free agent after 2022. I can't imagine letting him walk after the 2022 postseason.

Freeman was a year before Abreu. He was the offseason with Rizzo at 1b and big names like Judge, Turner, Correa, Swanson, deGrom, Boegarts, Diaz, Yoshida. If they were the same, I imagine we would not have done it. The Braves weren't even willing to. No one but the Dodgers were. They hit. But they have missed too. They just have money to cover it up.

Astros Bingo Update through 4-16-25
Paces - Link

Well, through the 18-game pace, nobody is going to get a point for total # of wins, currently projected at 72. Nobody picked lower than 75-79
On the individual side, if you picked Christian Walker to do basically anything, you're looking in the mirror saying "This is why I shouldn't gamble." Homeboy is currently on pace for 9 home runs and 18 RBI for the season. You guys mocked me when I said we should sign Joey Gallo.

Altuve retains the OPS lead at .788 and is hitting .311. Jake is 41 points above his .230 threshold.

For our Friends in Low Places update:
Rafael Montero has pitched pitched 3 scoreless outings since going to the Braves and has his season ERA at 2.57.
Tucker and Bregman on pace for 39 and 32 HR respectively.
Carlos Correa still homerless in 2025 and going back to last year has 1 home run in his last 31 games. He could fit right into our lineup, he's hitting .164 with a .473 OPS.
Justin Verlander 0-1 through 4 starts, and has only pitched 18.2 innings in those 4 starts.

Others
A's down to 10,047 a game attendance, but up to 72 win pace
White Sox blazing a trail towards 124 losses.

I'd say Carlos is pretty close to earning his contract.

He's been pretty damn solid up to this point in MIN. Had some injuries as expected but that may end up being one that would've been worth it.

Plus he may not be worth it for MIN but would be on this team.

Ag_07 said:

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I'd say Carlos is pretty close to earning his contract.

He's been pretty damn solid up to this point in MIN. Had some injuries as expected but that may end up being one that would've been worth it.

Plus he may not be worth it for MIN but would be on this team.

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With how Pena has played, I don't think Correa would have been worth the extra cost over what we are paying Pena. SS is one place where I don't think the replacement is significantly below the player being replaced.

I don't think they should have resigned any of the ones that left. My point was moreso that there's no evidence we would give anyone the money the Dodgers gave Freeman. We seem to think we can beat the odds signing these aging mid tier guys. Add up all that money and maybe you could sign one guy you feel much better about being a hit. All we seem to have done is pay less money for guys that have a lower probability of working out. Overall I don't see it as the grand risk mitigation breakthrough they think it is.

MaxPower said:

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I don't think they should have resigned any of the ones that left. My point was moreso that there's no evidence we would give anyone the money the Dodgers gave Freeman. We seem to think we can beat the odds signing these aging mid tier guys. Add up all that money and maybe you could sign one guy you feel much better about being a hit. All we seem to have done is pay less money for guys that have a lower probability of working out. Overall I don't see it as the grand risk mitigation breakthrough they think it is.

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I don't think it is necessarily that we aren't willing to pay a big price for a prime free agent. The problem is that there are teams like the Mets and Dodgers with near unlimited budgets that will pay whatever it takes to get a guy once they set their sights on him. So if we would have been willing to give Freeman 6/162, the Dodgers would have just offered 6/170. The Dodgers and Mets are not bothered by overpaying for a guy if it is somebody they want, while Crane doesn't have that luxury. He and his GM have to set a price they think is reasonable and hope they can get the guy, knowing that if the Dodgers or Mets want them, they will just up their bid as far as necessary.

#Braves recalled outfielder Alex Verdugo to Atlanta and optioned Bryan De La Cruz to Triple-A Gwinnett.

— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) April 17, 2025

Farmer1906 said:

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Crane has broken out of his shell and paid top of the market prices 3 times in my estimation.

2/66 M for JV in 2020
3/34 M for Montero in 2023
5/95 M for Hader in 2024

So far none of these have worked out.

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He's paid top $$ for arguably the worst positions to do that.

Never give top dollar to a middle reliever. They are all over MLB and they are completely random year over year in terms of what you get. Find a bunch of cheap ones and pray they give you more good than bad.

Every middle relief guy should be (a) cheap and (b) on a 1 year contract.

"Closers" are important if you play a lot of close games and you have one who has a strong track record. But they can go sour too. You should never pay top $$ here either, at least for long term. 2-3 years tops.

Starting Pitching for a 1 or 1a type guy is expensive and if you sign on for 4 years or longer you should bet on a TJ level injury once over 4 plus years.

Arguably you are better spending $$ on position players who are less random than relievers and less likely to need surgery requiring a 1.5 year absence.

Top of the market while nothing being mentioned over $100M does not add up for me. I don't doubt his willingness to throw stupid money on relievers, which is a strange fixation of this club but those are specialist with an inherently limited value ceiling and therefore cost.

JV fits in the old guy bucket that is willing to accept a high AAV contract for a short term deal. I don't see that deal much different from Walker or Abreu.

Really my question is should we be looking to operate differently when it comes to free agency? It seems pretty clear we aren't doing well with our mid tier shopping. Are we simply picking the wrong guys? Or are we shopping in the wrong aisle entirely? Maybe this had a place when we had a great farm and just needed to plug a few holes but do you operate differently with a poor farm and in need of impact players?

MaxPower said:

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Top of the market while nothing being mentioned over $100M does not add up for me. I don't doubt his willingness to throw stupid money on relievers, which is a strange fixation of this club but those are specialist with an inherently limited value ceiling and therefore cost.

JV fits in the old guy bucket that is willing to accept a high AAV contract for a short term deal. I don't see that deal much different from Walker or Abreu.

Really my question is should we be looking to operate differently when it comes to free agency? It seems pretty clear we aren't doing well with our mid tier shopping. Are we simply picking the wrong guys? Or are we shopping in the wrong aisle entirely? Maybe this had a place when we had a great farm and just needed to plug a few holes but do you operate differently with a poor farm and in need of impact players?

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besides the dodgers last year, when was the last time a team with big money free agent signings won the world series?


buying the best team/players doesn't always equate to winning. baseball is a crazy game. Like farmer said get in the playoffs and then basically whoever gets hot is the team to beat. With that being said if the Astros can get into the playoffs and if the bats get hot at the right time I think they are good enough to win the World Series this year.

Both teams in the WS last year. Rangers the year before paid for Seager and Semien. The team they played (D-Backs) have since paid $200M for a free agent so clearly they thought it would help them get back. The year before that we played the Phillies, who paid for Harper and Wheeler. The year before the Braves weren't active in free agency but were willing to go over 6 years to extend their own guys (Riley and Acuna). The Dodgers won it the year before and the Nationals won it the year before (they gave Scherzer the first ever pitcher mega deal).

So in the last 6 years, 4 of the WS winners since games a player to a mega deal. Of the other two, 1 was at least willing to extend their own guys more than 6 years. So basically we are the success outlier, not the teams giving out big, long term contracts.

Extending your own guys is niche because you need to have guys worth extending. Who do we have a few years from free agency that you would even want to extend that is a difference maker? HB if you want to play the fun pitcher injury game? Maybe Cam at some point? Certainly no one on the current farm system.

I'm not talking about whether what we have done worked. I'm talking about going forward. Everything we did in the past was predicated on having the best farm in baseball or riding the players that system produced as long as possible. We don't have that anymore.

MaxPower said:

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Extending your own guys is niche because you need to have guys worth extending. Who do we have a few years from free agency that you would even want to extend that is a difference maker? HB if you want to play the fun pitcher injury game? Maybe Cam at some point? Certainly no one on the current farm system.

I'm not talking about whether what we have done worked. I'm talking about going forward. Everything we did in the past was predicated on having the best farm in baseball or riding the players that system produced as long as possible. We don't have that anymore.

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I literally have no idea what point you're trying to make anymore?

Except we didn't have the best farm ever. We found guys who weren't highly ranked. Framber, Javier, Blanco, Urquidy, Abreu, etc. We made trades for arms with potential (Verlander, Cole, Kikuchi). We were savvy in the international market and found Yuli.

Moving forward, there is no way to continue this long term without blowing it up or hitting at an incredible rate in every draft and offseason. I think our window is 3 years, and then it's over. I'd very much like to go all in for 25-27.

Going forward we have to get uncomfortable. We have to do unpopular Tucker trades and we have to be willing to swing big in free agency.

Farmer1906 said:

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Except we didn't have the best farm ever. We found guys who were highly ranked. Framber, Javier, Blanco, Urquidy, Abreu, etc. We made trades for arms
With potential (Verlander, Cole, Kikuchi). We were savvy in the international market and found Yuli.

Moving forward there is no way to continue this long term without blowing it up or hitting at an incredible rate in every draft and offseason. I think our window is 3 years and then it's over. I'd very much like to go all in for 25-27.

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From 2014-2019 we were in the top 5-10% of farm system rankings per baseball America. The timeframe you are referring to is when all those players graduated and were under cheap control. Our 2019 top 10 prospects included Tucker, Yordan and Abreu. Would we have won the WS in 2022 without those guys?

Midseason 2019 we were no longer top 15.

End of 2019 - 25th



That graphic shows we weren't even top 10 in the start of 17 or 18.

We had a good farm. We hit a great rate. We didn't have a unique edge over everyone else.

The Astros have alternated wins and losses in 13 straight games. Per @EliasSports this ties as the longest of such a streak in franchise history, also reached from Aug. 19-Sept. 5, 2000. It's also the longest streak in the Majors since the Braves had a 14-game run in 2021.

— Steve Grande (@AstrosGrande) April 17, 2025

oh, didn't realize the Padres are 15-4 to start the season

and SD is starting a lefty Friday night

guy named Kyle Hart -- never heard of him

No reason you should. He came up 5 years ago, stunk, got stuck in the minors, left for Korea, and killed it over there. Low arm angle. Lots of sweepers. I imagine he's a nightmare against LHH.