***** Official Houston Astros 2025 Season Thread *****

4,663,986 Views | 63016 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by EastCoastAgNc
Wabs
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Farmer1906 said:

MaxPower said:

Going forward we have to get uncomfortable. We have to do unpopular Tucker trades and we have to be willing to swing big in free agency.
I don't think this is the way. I think we go for it or reset. This in-between thing isn't going to work. The Tucker trade is the exception to the rule. We found a trade partner who would meet our needs to win now and give us a top tier prospect.
Correct, go for it or reset. I for one prefer the reset with the core players being Altuve, Yordan, Pena and HB.
Hornbeck
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tjack16 said:

The only player I'd be willing to trade this year is Framber IF the price is right and a team is desperate. That also depends on if Lance and Arighetti come back in a positive way making impacts


Don't want to count my chickens, but we could potentially have LMJ, Arrighetti, and JP France back by the end of the season. I've beat this drum before, but that seems like a wealth of starting pitching. Move Blanco to the reliever, and trade Framber for strategic pieces (hopefully LHH or Switch hitters).
Farmer1906
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Wabs said:

Farmer1906 said:

MaxPower said:

Going forward we have to get uncomfortable. We have to do unpopular Tucker trades and we have to be willing to swing big in free agency.
I don't think this is the way. I think we go for it or reset. This in-between thing isn't going to work. The Tucker trade is the exception to the rule. We found a trade partner who would meet our needs to win now and give us a top tier prospect.
Correct, go for it or reset. I for one prefer the reset with the core players being Altuve, Yordan, Pena and HB.
There is no chance Altuve is a part of the next run. To make it happen, we probably need to trade Yordan, Brown, & Pena.
EastCoastAgNc
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EastCoastAgNc
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ATTN Jim Crane, Dana Brown, and Joe Eepada... Apparently this is allowed
MaxPower
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Farmer1906 said:

MaxPower said:

Going forward we have to get uncomfortable. We have to do unpopular Tucker trades and we have to be willing to swing big in free agency.
I don't think this is the way. I think we go for it or reset. This in-between thing isn't going to work. The Tucker trade is the exception to the rule. We found a trade partner who would meet our needs to win now and give us a top tier prospect.
Define reset. If we aren't signing big free agents, our farm is junk and we aren't trading anyone with value then it sounds a lot like watch your team slowly erode away into obscurity and then build your farm up once you've hit rock bottom. In other words, sounds a lot like 2009-2014.
Ag_07
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Tap the breaks a little

LMJ hasn't pitched in 8 years and France even when healthy isn't much help.
txags92
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tjack16 said:

The only player I'd be willing to trade this year is Framber IF the price is right and a team is desperate. That also depends on if Lance and Arighetti come back in a positive way making impacts
The only trade I am making for Framber is LHH OF and high level prospects.
Farmer1906
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MaxPower said:

Farmer1906 said:

MaxPower said:

Going forward we have to get uncomfortable. We have to do unpopular Tucker trades and we have to be willing to swing big in free agency.
I don't think this is the way. I think we go for it or reset. This in-between thing isn't going to work. The Tucker trade is the exception to the rule. We found a trade partner who would meet our needs to win now and give us a top tier prospect.
Define reset. If we aren't signing big free agents, our farm is junk and we aren't trading anyone with value then it sounds a lot like watch your team slowly erode away into obscurity and then build your farm up once you've hit rock bottom. In other words, sounds a lot like 2009-2014.


Rebuild. There is a very distinct difference in what was happening in 09 and 14. McClane was shedding money to sell the team. He had an idiot running the team. From 12(?) on Jeff was instituting a rebuild from the ground up.

I don't think we need to lose 100 games 3 seasons in a row but it'll take some time to build back up.
Mathguy64
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txags92 said:

tjack16 said:

The only player I'd be willing to trade this year is Framber IF the price is right and a team is desperate. That also depends on if Lance and Arighetti come back in a positive way making impacts
The only trade I am making for Framber is LHH OF and high level prospects.


It would have to be a very good LHH corner OFer. You don't trade a #1 for JAG.
txags92
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Mathguy64 said:

txags92 said:

tjack16 said:

The only player I'd be willing to trade this year is Framber IF the price is right and a team is desperate. That also depends on if Lance and Arighetti come back in a positive way making impacts
The only trade I am making for Framber is LHH OF and high level prospects.


It would have to be a very good LHH corner OFer. You don't trade a #1 for JAG.
Agree, but also note I didn't say "or", I said "and". If it isn't a very good OF, I would want more than one prospect that is top draft pick, tearing up AA/AAA, on their way to majors this year or next type of guys.
Wabs
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Farmer1906 said:

Wabs said:

Farmer1906 said:

MaxPower said:

Going forward we have to get uncomfortable. We have to do unpopular Tucker trades and we have to be willing to swing big in free agency.
I don't think this is the way. I think we go for it or reset. This in-between thing isn't going to work. The Tucker trade is the exception to the rule. We found a trade partner who would meet our needs to win now and give us a top tier prospect.
Correct, go for it or reset. I for one prefer the reset with the core players being Altuve, Yordan, Pena and HB.
There is no chance Altuve is a part of the next run. To make it happen, we probably need to trade Yordan, Brown, & Pena.
Trading Yordan, Pena and HB would be a really hard reset. And honestly I would be that opposed to it, except for maybe HB.
txags92
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Wabs said:

Farmer1906 said:

Wabs said:

Farmer1906 said:

MaxPower said:

Going forward we have to get uncomfortable. We have to do unpopular Tucker trades and we have to be willing to swing big in free agency.
I don't think this is the way. I think we go for it or reset. This in-between thing isn't going to work. The Tucker trade is the exception to the rule. We found a trade partner who would meet our needs to win now and give us a top tier prospect.
Correct, go for it or reset. I for one prefer the reset with the core players being Altuve, Yordan, Pena and HB.
There is no chance Altuve is a part of the next run. To make it happen, we probably need to trade Yordan, Brown, & Pena.
Trading Yordan, Pena and HB would be a really hard reset. And honestly I would be that opposed to it, except for maybe HB.
HB is the one I would hope would be untouchable in a full reset, but being a Boras client, we are probably not going to hang onto him long term. So we probably ought to start getting used to the idea of trading him sometime in the next few years like we did with Tucker.
tjack16
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txags92 said:

tjack16 said:

The only player I'd be willing to trade this year is Framber IF the price is right and a team is desperate. That also depends on if Lance and Arighetti come back in a positive way making impacts
The only trade I am making for Framber is LHH OF and high level prospects.


Orioles or dodgers would be best partners honestly for that
txags92
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tjack16 said:

txags92 said:

tjack16 said:

The only player I'd be willing to trade this year is Framber IF the price is right and a team is desperate. That also depends on if Lance and Arighetti come back in a positive way making impacts
The only trade I am making for Framber is LHH OF and high level prospects.


Orioles or dodgers would be best partners honestly for that
Yep. Supposedly we talked to Baltimore a lot, but they valued their prospects too highly to get a deal done. Hopefully the dodgers have some leftovers they will part with cheap when their pitchers start going down with TJ.
MaxPower
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I don't have a great comp for what you can get for Framber. It's been a few years since a pending free agent ace was traded at the deadline. Flaherty last year is the closest comp but Framber has a much better track record. Detroit got the Dodgers 8th and 22nd best prospect. Interestingly the lower ranked guy in that trade (Sweeney) helped Detroit make the playoffs last year in spite of trading the veteran SP away. That's kind of the type of trade I'm looking to do. Hell maybe even do what Detroit did and turn around and resign Framber a few months later.
The Original Houston 1836
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EastCoastAgNc said:


ATTN Jim Crane, Dana Brown, and Joe Eepada... Apparently this is allowed
This is like when the Rockets wouldn't break up Steve and Cuttino because Steve couldn't live without Cuttino. But when the Magic acquired both of them for T-Mac, they turned around and traded Cuttino like 15 minutes later.
Some things are actually possible!
Heineken-Ashi
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The problem isn't losing the old core (springer, Correa, Bregman). Springer has never been close to what he was with us, Correa has been maybe marginally better than Pena, and Bregman was never the cornerstone of a team. Without Yordan and Tucker coming up, we probably don't win in 2022.

We kept arguably the two best cornerstones over the elite years - Altuve and Yordan. We've been able to replace high level pitching with more high level pitching.

What's the difference then? Why does it seem like we've fallen so far?

1. The supporting pieces are nowhere close to as good.

We went from Yuli to Abreu to now a slow starting Christian Walker with some Singleton and Caratini thrown in.
We went from Brantley and Tucker to McCormick and Tucker (sometimes Yordan with Caratini taking DH which is a net downgrade still), to now Altuve and a combo of McCormick, Smith, and Dezenzo (which leaves a combo of Dubon and Rogers at 2B, an overall massive net downgrade).

It pretty much all comes down to 1B and outfield have sucked ass for two years (outside of half a season of Tucker last year).

2. Fire? Intensity? Passion?

One of those things that get scoffed at, but who is the vocal leader? Who holds players accountable? The current group feels like a collection of paycheck collectors with a couple lead by example veterans. As mentioned, not winning and struggling whether win or lose makes things seem worse than they are, but I would still argue the burning passion is gone from this club. And it felt that way last year too. Dusty, for all his faults, wanted to win so damned bad and that seemed to rub off some on the team.

3. Are we better than we think?

You could argue yes. Unless the league has just completely figured out Yainer (Stop ****ing swinging at low outside breaking pitches), Walker never comes around, Smith doesn't improve, Yordan keeps struggling, and we continue to be generally unlucky with ball placement, it's hard to imagine us actually getting worse. As mentioned by someone else, Yordan is struggling from having no protection. But even still, he's missing the sweet spot way more than expected. I truly think he coasted through spring. Will be worried if this keeps up through mid May. It really does come down to Yainer and Walker. If they can't be better, then this is what we are. If they can perform at league average, we probably have 1-2 more wins. If one of them can truly break out, things could be a lot different. Get a breakout from one of those two, which helps Yordan get back to his standard, see improvement from Smith, and then we're hunting for an impact bat at the deadline to make a run.
agproducer
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A Sparky sighting

The Original Houston 1836
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I really like the last post - at least the last post when I start typing this. I think the Astros and particularly the fans are falling into the trap that affected the Yankees and their fans in their long title gap between 1978 - 1996 in that they assumed that because guys were signing with the Yankees and wearing the pinstripes, that made them as great as the guys who came before them.

It's also the fallacy that guys that did well elsewhere are going to be just as good (or better) here as well as the younger guys from the last few years are all going to accelerate their games the way that Altuve / Correa / Springer / Gurriel / Tucker / Alvarez / Bregman did just because that's been our modus operandi for a few years.

Take the case of Yanier Diaz this year.
In 2023, he was in a platoon situation with zero pressure on him. Anything he did was a huge bonus. He didn't play all that much, so he didn't have a tremendous scouting report and he donged 23 HR and hit .282.

In 2024, Maldy is gone, he's the starting catcher, but he's still not "a guy" that they need to carry the weight. They have Bregman/Altuve/Tucker/Alvarez for that. He hits less HR, he barely walks, he grounds into a double play every 45 minutes, but he still has one of the best years ever - probably the best - by a Houston catcher.

In 2025, Tucker and Bregman are gone, and now you are a veteran - so now 25 HR and 90 RBI are expected. Are you ready for that mentally? Are you ready for it physically? We all know he had a work ethic problem with the Indians or he wouldn't be an Astro right now. Is he still going crazy proving himself every day or has he slacked off a little now because he's had great years back to back and figures nobody is taking his job?

Then you have to redo that question for basically everyone except Altuve, Hader, and you assume Yordan, although he is off to a pretty lousy start as well. Is Pena ready to make the same evolution that you're expecting of Diaz?

You don't know. Even Altuve is a question mark given the transition to the OF, but he's an all-time great, and seemingly unfazed.

My closing point is that clutch plays in the playoffs make both fans and baseball people think those players are going to bring it just as hard from now on in the regular season.

We all figured Pena would hit .280 and be a 20-20 guy no problem in 2023 and he was nowhere close.
We all figured Hunter Brown would turn his 2022 cup of coffee and playoff performance into a 14-win, 3.20 ERA 2023, and he was nowhere close.

The Astro mystique is still out there but it's really starting to diminish as they face the same struggle that every successful dynasty in every sport faces - guys leave for more money, guys retire, guys get old and lose skill sets. Keeping that going is really, really difficult in the modern world of sports.
MaxPower
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Speaking of potential Framber replacements, Blubaugh goes for Sugarland tonight. 2 of his first 3 appearances have been dominant. Good off day game to watch.
Beat40
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Edit for my post was too combative and emotional.
tjack16
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txags92 said:

tjack16 said:

txags92 said:

tjack16 said:

The only player I'd be willing to trade this year is Framber IF the price is right and a team is desperate. That also depends on if Lance and Arighetti come back in a positive way making impacts
The only trade I am making for Framber is LHH OF and high level prospects.


Orioles or dodgers would be best partners honestly for that
Yep. Supposedly we talked to Baltimore a lot, but they valued their prospects too highly to get a deal done. Hopefully the dodgers have some leftovers they will part with cheap when their pitchers start going down with TJ.


The deadline makes teams desperate sometimes. Who knows maybe even the Yankees could want to make a big move and take him.
Farmer1906
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tjack16 said:

txags92 said:

tjack16 said:

txags92 said:

tjack16 said:

The only player I'd be willing to trade this year is Framber IF the price is right and a team is desperate. That also depends on if Lance and Arighetti come back in a positive way making impacts
The only trade I am making for Framber is LHH OF and high level prospects.


Orioles or dodgers would be best partners honestly for that
Yep. Supposedly we talked to Baltimore a lot, but they valued their prospects too highly to get a deal done. Hopefully the dodgers have some leftovers they will part with cheap when their pitchers start going down with TJ.


The deadline makes teams desperate sometimes. Who knows maybe even the Yankees could want to make a big move and take him.


That would be idiotic to allow Framber to an AL team you'll see in the postseason.
MaxPower
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I wouldn't say idiotic but I'd need one hell of a trade. The Dodgers, Giants, Cubs and Mets are probably who I'm talking to.
tjack16
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Farmer1906 said:

tjack16 said:

txags92 said:

tjack16 said:

txags92 said:

tjack16 said:

The only player I'd be willing to trade this year is Framber IF the price is right and a team is desperate. That also depends on if Lance and Arighetti come back in a positive way making impacts
The only trade I am making for Framber is LHH OF and high level prospects.


Orioles or dodgers would be best partners honestly for that
Yep. Supposedly we talked to Baltimore a lot, but they valued their prospects too highly to get a deal done. Hopefully the dodgers have some leftovers they will part with cheap when their pitchers start going down with TJ.


The deadline makes teams desperate sometimes. Who knows maybe even the Yankees could want to make a big move and take him.


That would be idiotic to allow Framber to an AL team you'll see in the postseason.


Well, the only situation I would want to trade him in is if it looks like we are not going to make the postseason by the deadline. If we are leading the division or within a couple of games then don't trade anybody.
BadAggie
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What do we think of Dana Brown after 2 years? He has rep as talent evaluator, how are doing with replenishing the farm, given low picks?

2 years feels like a short time for that kind of GM as opposed to a deal making GM.

txags92
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BadAggie said:

What do we think of Dana Brown after 2 years? He has rep as talent evaluator, how are doing with replenishing the farm, given low picks?

2 years feels like a short time for that kind of GM as opposed to a deal making GM.


I trust him more than Crane. So far his deals seem to have worked out in our favor for the most part. I think the next 18 months will really test his abilities to get good return for some guys we are probably not going to be able to resign, and he has to get some more quality LH bats in the door. Otherwise I think the jury is out, but I am willing to be patient based on where we are as a club and what I have seen from him so far. I would like to see him explore deferred money for the right kinds of guys (like HB).
AggiEE
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BadAggie said:

What do we think of Dana Brown after 2 years? He has rep as talent evaluator, how are doing with replenishing the farm, given low picks?

2 years feels like a short time for that kind of GM as opposed to a deal making GM.



I think he's done well given the limitations of this team in terms of draft picks and salary cap.

The Tucker trade was a steal imho. Obviously Tucker is an amazing player but the haul we got back was very good in terms of overall value. 2 everyday players we needed with years of team control (that are performing well right now) plus a top prospect that is still learning but somehow managing to still outplay older guys like Diaz and Walker
3B Paul 97
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AggiEE said:

BadAggie said:

What do we think of Dana Brown after 2 years? He has rep as talent evaluator, how are doing with replenishing the farm, given low picks?

2 years feels like a short time for that kind of GM as opposed to a deal making GM.



I think he's done well given the limitations of this team in terms of draft picks and salary cap.

The Tucker trade was a steal imho. Obviously Tucker is an amazing player but the haul we got back was very good in terms of overall value. 2 everyday players we needed with years of team control (that are performing well right now) plus a top prospect that is still learning but somehow managing to still outplay older guys like Diaz and Walker

I've been pleased. Didn't let Bregman drive a bad contract. He is playing well to start the year, but I don't think the contract will age well.
Moved Pressly who also had an emotional tie here, but is in the decline.
Maximized what he could get for 1 year of Tucker given he wasn't going to sign here anyway.
Got rid of Abreu and Montero so we could move past those bad signings. Had to be a tough to sell to Crane that we just needed to eat those losses and cut bait. It will be good to see what he can do with the full salary base at his disposal.
Brought in low cost pieces like Gamel and Scott that played solid ball last year.
The lefty relievers all seem to be performing well.
I do like his eye for talent that will help in drafts, but also trades. Curious to see how the PTBNL from the Montero deal with Braves will work out.
I would like to see him extend Brown and maybe even Arrighetti soon to lock them in longer/cheaper. They could be solid #1 and 3 (maybe 2) guys.
Ag_07
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Some of Dana's best moves have been fixing the mess Crane created when he was operating without a GM. So I commend him for that.

Given what he's had to work with he's been pretty solid.
EastCoastAgNc
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3B Paul 97 said:

AggiEE said:

BadAggie said:

What do we think of Dana Brown after 2 years? He has rep as talent evaluator, how are doing with replenishing the farm, given low picks?

2 years feels like a short time for that kind of GM as opposed to a deal making GM.



I think he's done well given the limitations of this team in terms of draft picks and salary cap.

The Tucker trade was a steal imho. Obviously Tucker is an amazing player but the haul we got back was very good in terms of overall value. 2 everyday players we needed with years of team control (that are performing well right now) plus a top prospect that is still learning but somehow managing to still outplay older guys like Diaz and Walker

I've been pleased. Didn't let Bregman drive a bad contract. He is playing well to start the year, but I don't think the contract will age well.
Moved Pressly who also had an emotional tie here, but is in the decline.
Maximized what he could get for 1 year of Tucker given he wasn't going to sign here anyway.
Got rid of Abreu and Montero so we could move past those bad signings. Had to be a tough to sell to Crane that we just needed to eat those losses and cut bait. It will be good to see what he can do with the full salary base at his disposal.
Brought in low cost pieces like Gamel and Scott that played solid ball last year.
The lefty relievers all seem to be performing well.
I do like his eye for talent that will help in drafts, but also trades. Curious to see how the PTBNL from the Montero deal with Braves will work out.
I would like to see him extend Brown and maybe even Arrighetti soon to lock them in longer/cheaper. They could be solid #1 and 3 (maybe 2) guys.


It's too late to extend brown. It would take the kind of contract that crane doesn't want to give out because he has Borass as his agent now. Enjoy him while we have him because he's gone after his arb years
MaxPower
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Brown still has 3 years of control left. I don't really love long term contracts for pitchers but given his length from free agency we could absolutely extend him. Boras knows as well as we do that pitchers can get hurt and go in the crapper quick and that'll be 3 years of wear and tear. I would guess it would need to be something like 5, $150M is what it would take. Technically that's not more money than we have been willing to offer Jose or Bregman (we just haven't done it for a pitcher).

If you are going to spend that kind of money on a pitcher though then I'd just resign Framber or go after a similar free agent pitcher this offseason. Then you have both of them the next 3 years as your 1-2 punch.
EastCoastAgNc
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EastCoastAgNc
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Call your shot... How many runs do the Astros score this weekend? They have maldy on the roster so they should know very well how to pitch the lineup.

How many stolen bases for SD?
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