***** Official Houston Astros 2025 Season Thread *****

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Farmer1906
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In reply to MaxPower • 9:58a, 5/6/25
AG
MaxPower said:
Farmer1906 said:
We did most of our damage in draft, international signings, trades, and development. FAs made up the smallest amount. Now that the young crop has grown up and left the next (most exited their prime), we have the reply on FA to replace them. We're taking the bigger swings and spending more without getting into mega deals.
They aren't really big swings. $60M for a free agent bat is nothing these days. If you look at teams that have been built significantly through free agency, they are shopping in the $100+M range. We are spending like a team that is trying to fill in around young players coming up but don't have the farm to support that strategy.
We have committed

Verlander - 25 M
Neris - 17 M
Brantley - 12 M
Abreu - 58.5 M
Montero - 34.5 M
Caratini - 12 M
Hader - 95 M
Walker - 60 M
--
We've committed over 300 M while extending McCullers (85 M), Altuve (125 M), and Alvarez (115 M)

There is a reason we've regularly been in the second tier of spending, around the top 5-10 teams over the last several years. You can't do that without swinging bigger. If you compare that to what Jeff gave out, it's not that close.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to W • 10:01a, 5/6/25
AG
W said:
plus the one season of Chirinos 3.8 WAR
Good call. He had some nice pitching signings on the super cheap too. Morton, Miley (worked out well until it didn't), Rodon, etc.

It was good, but they were mostly nice fill-ins to complete a lineup. If you compare it to homegrown or trades, that FA group looks wimpy.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to Wabs • 10:04a, 5/6/25
AG
Wabs said:
What would it take to get Brendan Donovan from STL right now? Would really love to see him at 2B....
Arrighetti + another prospect or two. It's a deal that's been discussed and may not be completely off the table.
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Ag_07
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10:06a, 5/6/25
AG
At this point I think we have the pitching.

We need the offense.

And speaking of pitching...Where the hell is JP France? I know he's injured but i haven't heard his name in a long time.
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Mr. Awesome Time
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 10:22a, 5/6/25
texasaggie2015 said:
Wabs said:
What would it take to get Brendan Donovan from STL right now? Would really love to see him at 2B....
Arrighetti + another prospect or two. It's a deal that's been discussed and may not be completely off the table.
Looks like we'd have Donovan thru the 2027 season if a deal happened, but I don't like the thought of replacing Valdez and Arrighetti next year.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to Ag_07 • 10:35a, 5/6/25
AG
If he returns, it'll be late in the year. Think August-September. I don't think they expect him to contribute this season though.
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Ag_07
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 10:45a, 5/6/25
AG
Yeah I thought that was the case and honestly I don't see him a key piece moving forward.

I just realized the other day we hadn't seen or heard of him in quite a while and was curious.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Wabs • 10:57a, 5/6/25
AG
Wabs said:
What would it take to get Brendan Donovan from STL right now? Would really love to see him at 2B....
I shouted this from the mountaintops all offseason. I figure it's too late now. Donovan's stock is up, while Arrighetti's is down due to injury. Maybe we'll get desperate enough to do it at the deadline.

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iBrad
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In reply to W • 11:46a, 5/6/25
AG
W said:
another reason why Luhnow = genius...

his older hitter free agent signings...Brantley, McCann, Reddick, et al...

worked out better...and much better in some cases

McCann was acquired via trade.

Lunhow was great, but he also got to come in and completely tear down the organization and rebuild it by stockpiling prospects through trades, the draft, and international signings. He wasn't replacing lost free agents and their production with his signings. He was supplementing a team full of young talent.

It would have been interesting to see how Lunhow would have kept it going when guys started to leave. He was phenomenal at the rebuild, but his ability to sustain the success is unknown.
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MaxPower
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 12:00p, 5/6/25
Spending $300M in free agency over the span of 5 or 6 seasons isn't taking big swings in free agency. My point isn't whether we spend money in totality, it's about our free agent strategy. It's always preferred to have a bunch of your own guys that you can extend. We just don't have those guys right now.

My point is that you aren't going to put together a contender with a bad farm and a bunch of Christian walkers. You are going to have to take a swing on a Bryce Harper type or two. Guys who are real difference makers that your farm isn't producing. Otherwise you might as well just sell assets for prospects and do a rebuild and try to recreate 2016-2022.

I don't disagree with what our strategy has been. I just think it needs to change going forward. Number one focus should be the farm. Wait out free agency a year or two, clear the books a little and make a big splash.
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f1ghtintexasaggie
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12:57p, 5/6/25
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/PuAdXwc88x

If this is true, why again is Altuve in LF?
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MaxPower
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In reply to f1ghtintexasaggie • 1:05p, 5/6/25
f1ghtintexasaggie said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/PuAdXwc88x

If this is true, why again is Altuve in LF?
That is from 2024 when he was at 2B. He is about average defensively in LF this year.
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Heineken-Ashi
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1:21p, 5/6/25
Did we cut Rogers yet?
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Farmer1906
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In reply to MaxPower • 1:33p, 5/6/25
AG
MaxPower said:
Spending $300M in free agency over the span of 5 or 6 seasons isn't taking big swings in free agency. My point isn't whether we spend money in totality, it's about our free agent strategy. It's always preferred to have a bunch of your own guys that you can extend. We just don't have those guys right now.

My point is that you aren't going to put together a contender with a bad farm and a bunch of Christian walkers. You are going to have to take a swing on a Bryce Harper type or two. Guys who are real difference makers that your farm isn't producing. Otherwise you might as well just sell assets for prospects and do a rebuild and try to recreate 2016-2022.

I don't disagree with what our strategy has been. I just think it needs to change going forward. Number one focus should be the farm. Wait out free agency a year or two, clear the books a little and make a big splash.
All fair points.

I would do it differently. I would go trade for the best bats available for the next 2-3 years. Then blow it up like it is 2011-13.

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Farmer1906
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1:38p, 5/6/25
AG
From Last Nov:


Quote:
I was thinking about some left-handed bat option to stick in a corner spot besides bringing back Gamel or Howard.
  • Max Kepler - coming off a bad season he could be very cheap. For most of his career, he's been solid with some flashes of well above average. He's a vet who needs a change of scenery. Here is how he's hit RHP the last few seasons (wRC+) 92, 127, 93, 115, 147, & 119. 111 for his career. On top of that he's a plus defender with a above-average arm.
  • David Peralta - old dude who's going to be cheap. He just hits RHP well. Fairly consistent throughout his career. Defense is starting to go, but you don't need to be elite to play platoon LF at MMP. Veteran bat off the bench because you know Espada loves his pinch hitters.
Max Kepler
  • 122 wRC+ (138 wRC+ vs RHP)

David Peralta
  • 115 wRC+ (116 wRC+ vs RHP)
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Farmer1906
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In reply to MaxPower • 1:57p, 5/6/25
AG
MaxPower said:
f1ghtintexasaggie said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/PuAdXwc88x

If this is true, why again is Altuve in LF?
That is from 2024 when he was at 2B. He is about average defensively in LF this year.
I would argue FRV is a much better stat than DRS. If we look at FRV for the 2 Altuve positions, we see a net positive.

2024 to 2025
2B: -5 to +5 (Net 10)
LF: -1 to -3 (Net -2)

We're 8 runs ahead of where we finished last year at 2B+LF.

The other positions:
C: +1 to -3 (Net -3)
1B: -10 to 0 (Net 10)
2B: -5 to +5 (Net 10)
3B: +2 to +1 (Net -1)
SS: -1 to +1 (Net 2)
LF: -1 to -3 (Net -2)
CF: +12 to +3 (Net -9)
RF: 0 to +1 (Net 1)
Total: -2 to +5 (Net 7)

Keep in mind, these are counting #s, so if we continue to play well, the improvement will keep adding up.
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MaxPower
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:04p, 5/6/25
We have very much become an 80's Astros team. Great pitching and defense but can't hit. At some point we will have to re-examine if the defense is worth it or if you need to start putting bats in defensive spots outside their comfort zone.
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txags92
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In reply to MaxPower • 2:34p, 5/6/25
AG
MaxPower said:
We have very much become an 80's Astros team. Great pitching and defense but can't hit. At some point we will have to re-examine if the defense is worth it or if you need to start putting bats in defensive spots outside their comfort zone.
We don't have any offensive bats that are on the bench due to their lack of defense. Given the way today's game is played, guys with high defensive value and weak bats are not worth much as trade bait.
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Faustus
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:49p, 5/6/25
Farmer1906 said:
MaxPower said:
f1ghtintexasaggie said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/PuAdXwc88x

If this is true, why again is Altuve in LF?
That is from 2024 when he was at 2B. He is about average defensively in LF this year.
I would argue FRV is a much better stat than DRS. If we look at FRV for the 2 Altuve positions, we see a net positive.

2024 to 2025
2B: -5 to +5 (Net 10)
LF: -1 to -3 (Net -2)

We're 8 runs ahead of where we finished last year at 2B+LF.

The other positions:
C: +1 to -3 (Net -3)
1B: -10 to 0 (Net 10)
2B: -5 to +5 (Net 10)
3B: +2 to +1 (Net -1)
SS: -1 to +1 (Net 2)
LF: -1 to -3 (Net -2)
CF: +12 to +3 (Net -9)
RF: 0 to +1 (Net 1)
Total: -2 to +5 (Net 7)

Keep in mind, these are counting #s, so if we continue to play well, the improvement will keep adding up.


We stand to be much better on the switch if it stays the same rate at 2b and LF. Altuve will crush us in LF significantly less than we are helped at 2b, although it should be noted that he's on pace to be much worse in FRV in LF than he was at 2b (-14 or so just eyeballing it).

He makes up for it with his bat - up until last season. He better get to 3k hits because it's looking like a bumpy ride to the mark.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to txags92 • 2:58p, 5/6/25
AG
txags92 said:
MaxPower said:
We have very much become an 80's Astros team. Great pitching and defense but can't hit. At some point we will have to re-examine if the defense is worth it or if you need to start putting bats in defensive spots outside their comfort zone.
We don't have any offensive bats that are on the bench due to their lack of defense. Given the way today's game is played, guys with high defensive value and weak bats are not worth much as trade bait.
This.
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f1ghtintexasaggie
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In reply to MaxPower • 3:24p, 5/6/25
MaxPower said:
f1ghtintexasaggie said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/PuAdXwc88x

If this is true, why again is Altuve in LF?
That is from 2024 when he was at 2B. He is about average defensively in LF this year.


Thank you for the correction. Knew I should have looked it up myself.
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txags92
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In reply to Faustus • 3:25p, 5/6/25
AG
Faustus said:
Farmer1906 said:
MaxPower said:
f1ghtintexasaggie said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/PuAdXwc88x

If this is true, why again is Altuve in LF?
That is from 2024 when he was at 2B. He is about average defensively in LF this year.
I would argue FRV is a much better stat than DRS. If we look at FRV for the 2 Altuve positions, we see a net positive.

2024 to 2025
2B: -5 to +5 (Net 10)
LF: -1 to -3 (Net -2)

We're 8 runs ahead of where we finished last year at 2B+LF.

The other positions:
C: +1 to -3 (Net -3)
1B: -10 to 0 (Net 10)
2B: -5 to +5 (Net 10)
3B: +2 to +1 (Net -1)
SS: -1 to +1 (Net 2)
LF: -1 to -3 (Net -2)
CF: +12 to +3 (Net -9)
RF: 0 to +1 (Net 1)
Total: -2 to +5 (Net 7)

Keep in mind, these are counting #s, so if we continue to play well, the improvement will keep adding up.


We stand to be much better on the switch if it stays the same rate at 2b and LF. Altuve will crush us in LF significantly less than we are helped at 2b, although it should be noted that he's on pace to be much worse in FRV in LF than he was at 2b (-14 or so just eyeballing it).

He makes up for it with his bat - up until last season. He better get to 3k hits because it's looking like a bumpy ride to the mark.
The key to that whole experiment is that whatever we gain or lose from him being in LF instead of 2B needs to be a net positive when you compare the offensive value of whoever is at 2B against the lost offensive value of whoever would have been playing LF, and that is where we are falling way short at the moment. With our ground ball pitchers, having the extra defense on the right side is a big boost, but if we start comparing Dubon/Rodgers against having Yordan or Dezenzo or Chas in LF offensively, that is a big dropoff.
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Strategy
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3:31p, 5/6/25
AG
Guys help me out, why isn't anyone touching Trevor Bauer? -especially the Astros?

Many athletes have done so much worse.
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Ag_07
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In reply to Strategy • 3:35p, 5/6/25
AG
Surprised it took this long to bring up Tyler.

Probably because the Astros have a pretty legit pitching staff without the headache.

He's an awful teammate and teams don't want that in their clubhouse. Dude has been a cancer in every locker room he's been in dating back to his HS days.

Not rocket science.
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The Original Houston 1836
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In reply to Strategy • 3:50p, 5/6/25
Strategy said:
Guys help me out, why isn't anyone touching Trevor Bauer? -especially the Astros?

Many athletes have done so much worse.
As my favorite high school football coach told me, and as I related last month about Shedeur Sanders - if nobody is signing you, it's not about what you've done, it's because you suck at your sport.
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Ag_07
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In reply to The Original Houston 1836 • 4:29p, 5/6/25
AG
That's not the case for Trevor Bauer.

He was a CY winner and received MVP votes in 2020. He sported a 2.59 ERA his only season with LA.

That was 5 years ago but at the time it was absolutely a result of what he had done and had nothing to do with his talent.
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The Original Houston 1836
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4:31p, 5/6/25
He had the medical problems of an 85-year-old woman in 2024. Dominating the Mexican league doesn't indicate he has the physical or medical capacity to play in the majors. Bauer seems a lot like Colin Kaepernick, pretending he is desperate to get back, but mostly just wanting attention.
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jja79
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In reply to The Original Houston 1836 • 4:40p, 5/6/25
AG
In fairness Sanders led the NCAA in passing last year.
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Ag_07
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In reply to The Original Houston 1836 • 4:43p, 5/6/25
AG
Yes that's why I said that was 5 years ago.

When he was first run out of LA he was a top pitcher in the league.
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The Original Houston 1836
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In reply to jja79 • 5:09p, 5/6/25
jja79 said:
In fairness Sanders led the NCAA in passing last year.
Unfortunately, he was being drafted for the NFL.
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The Original Houston 1836
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5:18p, 5/6/25
Verlander vs. King Tuck tonight.
JV still on 0 wins for 2025
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wehnerhigh20
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In reply to The Original Houston 1836 • 5:19p, 5/6/25
AG
He's gonna be 50 still pitching trying to get to 300 wins at this rate
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W
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5:40p, 5/6/25
AG
Chad Patrick starting for the Brewers tonight

he's a rookie -- and he's been good so far this season 2.87 ERA
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Boiling Denim
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In reply to Strategy • 6:12p, 5/6/25
Strategy said:
Guys help me out, why isn't anyone touching Trevor Bauer? -especially the Astros?

Many athletes have done so much worse.


I think Trevor has moved onto his second life with his current YouTube content. He has some pretty good stuff if anyone cares to look. Ironically enough he seems like he would make a really good pitching coach
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f1ghtintexasaggie
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In reply to The Original Houston 1836 • 6:23p, 5/6/25
The Original Houston 1836 said:
Verlander vs. King Tuck tonight.
JV still on 0 wins for 2025


I don't see V getting 300. He relied too heavily on the heater, and he just doesn't have it anymore. If only he hadn't blown out his elbow...
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