sburg2007 said:
That hurts my head
Most likely scenarios:
As of this morning, we have to either make up 3 games on SEA or 2 games on HOU; OR
Make up 2 games on both of them.
According to ESPN, current playoff odds are at 27.7%. However, if you assume that 2 of the 3 AL West teams play their way IN by playing decent ball, this means that KC, CLE, and TAM would need help. If you assume that TEX isn't giving it to them, you can basically add their percentages to TEX, since they're all chasing the same 2 teams (technically CLE could catch DET, but that's very low in contributing to their PO %).
If you add CLE, TB, and KC to TEX, you get a 36% chance. This means if TEX just keeps playing decent ball, e.g. 8-7, they still have a decent chance. All it would take is for HOU to go 6-9 and not sweep TEX, or for CLE to go worse than 10-6, or 10-6 without sweeping TEX.
In order of CURRENT priority:
1) Catch HOU
2) Hold off CLE
3) Pass SEA
Clearly CLE is a big threat, and if HOU were to crater, that series with CLE could be for a wild card spot. Holding a one game lead going into that would be critical, since one TEX win would clinch.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough