AggieEP said:

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I just went and looked at his MVP vote getting years. I think on today's game he would have finished higher, he got beat out by guys like Ryan Howard who don't win MVPs these days. Also, one of his best years was when he was traded to Houston and by switching leagues basically unable to win the award.

Your point still stands though. I'm not sure how Murphy can't get the votes to get in as a 2 time MVP but Beltran gets in comfortably.

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2001 - Beltran has a 6.5 bWAR season... didn't get a single MVP vote. But Corey Koskie did.
2003 - Beltran was 5 spots behind Shannon Stewart, who finished 4th. 114 OPS+, 3.1 bWAR. Just terrible voting.
2008 - Beltran had a 7 bWAR season... 21st in MVP. 1.5 WAR Prince Fielder finished ahead of him.


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Dale might have won 2 MVPs, but I'd argue Schmidt deserved 1982 over him.

Murphy also aged like milk. From '88-'92 (age 33-37) he had a 96 OPS+, 4.9 WAR.
And he started slow. From '76-;79 (age 20-23)he has a 95 OPS+, -0.8 WAR.

His whole case is a great 8-year prime. It might be good enough.

AggieEP said:

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CharleyKerfeld said:

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Pettite continues to be popular with the writers because he admitted to using steroids.

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I agree, the mea culpa earns you a solid 20 percent of the voters that otherwise are hard nos.

He's kind of getting the Mussina treatment voting wise now moving toward what seems to be enshrinement. I think the bar has to be lowered if pitchers are going to get in (after Kershaw, Verlander and Scherzer) so maybe Petitte is the guy to lower the bar for us.

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For me, that lower bar guy is King Felix. 9-year window of dominance.

2007-2015 (rank - min 1000 IP)

• 2262.1 IP (6th)
• 52.4 fWAR (3rd)
• 3.11 ERA (7th)
• 3.20 FIP (6th)
• 3.16 xFIP (2nd)
• 11 Shutouts (5th)
• 227 QS (4th)
• 25 CG (5th)
• 2254 SO (2nd)

He's surrounded by guys like CC (HOF), Halladay (HOF), Buehrle, Kershaw (future HOF), Madbum (another guy I'd put in but for different reasons)

CharleyKerfeld said:

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Pettite continues to be popular with the writers because he admitted to using steroids.

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That doesn't make up for the lack of resume


And we've already had the "lower the bar" guy get in.....Jack Morris

Farmer1906 said:

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AggieEP said:

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CharleyKerfeld said:

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Pettite continues to be popular with the writers because he admitted to using steroids.

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I agree, the mea culpa earns you a solid 20 percent of the voters that otherwise are hard nos.

He's kind of getting the Mussina treatment voting wise now moving toward what seems to be enshrinement. I think the bar has to be lowered if pitchers are going to get in (after Kershaw, Verlander and Scherzer) so maybe Petitte is the guy to lower the bar for us.

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For me, that lower bar guy is King Felix. 9-year window of dominance.

2007-2015 (rank - min 1000 IP)

• 2262.1 IP (6th)
• 52.4 fWAR (3rd)
• 3.11 ERA (7th)
• 3.20 FIP (6th)
• 3.16 xFIP (2nd)
• 11 Shutouts (5th)
• 227 QS (4th)
• 25 CG (5th)
• 2254 SO (2nd)

He's surrounded by guys like CC (HOF), Halladay (HOF), Buehrle, Kershaw (future HOF), Madbum (another guy I'd put in but for different reasons)

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Agreed, I think Felix also gets in and helps redefine what a new age HoF pitcher's numbers look like.

FWIW I never really thought of Petite as a HoFer, he always felt like a #2 at best in a rotation, and that doesn't feel like HoF to me. Felix was a clear alpha over his shorter prime.

AgRyan04 said:

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CharleyKerfeld said:

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Pettite continues to be popular with the writers because he admitted to using steroids.

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That doesn't make up for the lack of resume


And we've already had the "lower the bar" guy get in.....Jack Morris

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Jack Morris is from a different era though. Probably should have clarified, lower the bar or maybe rather redefine the bar for the post 2010 pitcher.

I agree on that, but Pettitte isn't the guy who's going to carry that bucket....he was a 90s/00s guy

Here is name coming up in 2 years. What are yall's thoughts on Stephen Strasburg?

From 2010-2019 he was as good as anyone. This 10 year (8 year really with how litle he played in 10 and 11) is elite, but outside of this is 3 bad seasons and an early retirement.

3.17 ERA
3.16 xERA ('15-'19)
2.96 FIP
2.95 xFIP
36.6 WAR

For the career, it's only 1470.0 innings and 36.6 WAR.

Awards:
Cy Voting: 3rd, 5th, and 9th.
MVP Voting: 15th
Silver Slugger
2 All Stars

I lean no, but its not an easy choice. From '10-'19 he's 9th in ERA, 7th in xERA, 4th in FIP, 3rd in xFIP, 29th in IP (again, 10 and 11 barely count),17th in QS, 11th in SO, 3rd in K-BB%.

Pettite also gains traction from a 19-11 post-season record. He's #1 in career post-season wins, and #1 in post-season innings pitched (276). That's more than a full extra season of innings just in the playoffs.

CharleyKerfeld said:

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Pettite also gains traction from a 19-11 post-season record. He's #1 in career post-season wins, and #1 in post-season innings pitched (276). That's more than a full extra season of innings just in the playoffs.

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That is great, but he was the same guy in October as the regular season. Good, not great. 3.81 ERA. 4.09 FIP. It's more like he played on a Yankees dynasty then 2 really good Astro teams.

I lean no on Strasburg pretty strongly. If he had a CY on there, I think I'd look deeper into the stats. I just really value the idea that at some point in your career if you are a HoF'er someone thought you were the best in the league. I could probably give grace for a bunch of 2nd place finishes if there was another dominant guy out there, but the reality is that Strasburg put together consistently good years, but never had a truly spectacular year.

Farmer1906 said:

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CharleyKerfeld said:

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Pettite also gains traction from a 19-11 post-season record. He's #1 in career post-season wins, and #1 in post-season innings pitched (276). That's more than a full extra season of innings just in the playoffs.

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That is great, but he was the same guy in October as the regular season. Good, not great. 3.81 ERA. 4.09 FIP. It's more like he played on a Yankees dynasty then 2 really good Astro teams.

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Perhaps, but he's still #1 in those categories. When the yankees demanded a playoff workhorse he's the one who stepped up. And he was part of that dynasty.

Full disclosure - I have no idea what FIP is.

Fielding Independent Pitching

Tries to isolate out the things a pitcher can directly control (K's, Walks, HRs) from the things he can't control (like crappy outfielders or infielders with no range, or the luck of a ball being smoked right at someone versus the luck of a Texas leaguer falling in)

AggieEP said:

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W said:

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and going back to the MVP voting...

Lance Berkman finished in the top 10 six times in 15 seasons

3rd twice
5th twice
7th twice

that's really good

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Among the most criminal things I've seen in the HoF voting was Berkman getting 1.5% and falling immediately off. We can argue about his merits as far as enshrinement, but it's ludicrous that he didn't survive long enough in the ballot to get a real fair shot.

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I agree. I will say some of it is based on voters only getting 10 votes. The 2019 ballot now has 11 HOFers and another plus another 6 who have the #s but didn't get in for other reasons (Schilling, Clemens, Bonds, Manny, Sheffield, and Sosa).

Just for fun, the case for Berkman.

Last 30 Years (min 6K PA - 180 players) - note this cuts off a few guys who played before '96

wRC+
1. Bonds - 190
2. Trout - 166
3. Manny - 155
4. Bagwell - 149
5. Thome - 147
6. Sheffield - 145
7. Votto - 145
8. Berkman - 144
9. Chipper - 143
10. ARod - 142
11. Thomas - 142
12. Freeman - 141
13. Pujols - 141
14. Harper - 141
15. Giambi - 140
16. Ortiz - 140
17. Cabrera - 139
18. Piazza - 138
19. Delgato - 137
20. Goldschmidt - 137

His #s are damn similar to Bryce Harper and everyone considers him a lock for the HOF,

Mathguy64 said:

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AggieEP said:

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W said:

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and going back to the MVP voting...

Lance Berkman finished in the top 10 six times in 15 seasons

3rd twice
5th twice
7th twice

that's really good

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Among the most criminal things I've seen in the HoF voting was Berkman getting 1.5% and falling immediately off. We can argue about his merits as far as enshrinement, but it's ludicrous that he didn't survive long enough in the ballot to get a real fair shot.

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This is like the Mathguy bat signal.

I'll say it. Fat Elvis got screwed like a Bangkok hooker working an overtime shift. Call it ballot overload. Call it writer idiocy. Whatever it was, he was boned. You can make an argument that his counting stats from longevity make him just short, but he was the best switch hitter not using steroids of his generation. Dropping off the ballot the way he did was a failure of the ballot system.

When the veterans committee meets again I can only hope they fix it.

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The worst part about it is that I think Berkman's case is the kind of case that needed like 7-8 years of momentum to make the points made above. What we've seen is that guys that can start off at like 20% usually get in unless there are extenuating circumstances because we get a long time to win over new voters and make specific arguments to address why a guy should be in.

The way they've changed the veteran's committee process, he better hope it's a weak ballot when he's on there.

He won more than 15 games once and more than 10 games 7 times with 2 complete games. This can't be a serious.

I don't consider pitcher wins when evaluating players.

jja79 said:

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He won more than 15 games once and more than 10 games 7 times with 2 complete games. This can't be a serious.

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Unless you are ok with starters never making the HoF again after Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer and Kershaw get in you better get serious about looking at stats beyond wins and complete games.

My opinion is unpopular and I do love Lance, I got to see him up close every game of his last season at Rice and he was a great guy to be around.

But he left some meat on the bone by retiring when he did. After the '11 season and WS, he was hurt a lot and only played 32 games in 2012 and 73 in 2013. He finished at 1,905 hits and 366 HR. I'm pretty confident if he got to 400 HR and 2,000 hits, he would have gotten 5% of the vote.

I'm old. I can't get my head around starters going 5 innings and getting high fived coming back to the dugout. The guys that pitched before didn't leave it in the hands of 2,3 or 4 relievers to finish the job. I don't have a vote so my opinion is just that and really doesn't matter.

Farmer1906 said:

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But it's not really their choice now. Baseball found better ways of getting ours.

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Hitters also have a completely different game plan WRT working the count. Getting through 6 innings on 100 pitches is pretty efficient these days.

I'm sort of rooting for Snell (even though he's a dewsh) to get a 3rd CY because he'll make for a contentious case when he's eligible. 3+ MVPs or CYs traditionally makes you a lock unless you cheat or juice, but Snell is even more extreme than deGrom on the lack of innings.