What metric are you using for him being 2nd best of all time?
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Official Hall of Fame Discussion
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Last: 1 hr ago by Mathguy64
Because I felt like doing extra research.
Verlander 13.2 wins per year
Kershaw 12.3 wins per year
Scherzer 12.3 wins per year
Greinke 11.3 wins per year
Sale 9.5 wins per year
Skubal 8.7 wins per year
Cole 12.8 wins per year
So even predicting 14 a year for Skenes would put him on a pace higher than anyone recently
For comparison
Maddux 15.4
Big unit 13.8
Clemens 14.8
Glavine 13.9
Pedro 12.2
Sabathia 13.2
Verlander 13.2 wins per year
Kershaw 12.3 wins per year
Scherzer 12.3 wins per year
Greinke 11.3 wins per year
Sale 9.5 wins per year
Skubal 8.7 wins per year
Cole 12.8 wins per year
So even predicting 14 a year for Skenes would put him on a pace higher than anyone recently
For comparison
Maddux 15.4
Big unit 13.8
Clemens 14.8
Glavine 13.9
Pedro 12.2
Sabathia 13.2
AgRyan04 said:
What metric are you using for him being 2nd best of all time?
Total Zone Runs. Only behind Brooks Robinson. In dWAR, only behind Robinson and Beltre.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
AggieEP said:
Because I felt like doing extra research.
Verlander 13.2 wins per year
Kershaw 12.3 wins per year
Scherzer 12.3 wins per year
Greinke 11.3 wins per year
Sale 9.5 wins per year
Skubal 8.7 wins per year
Cole 12.8 wins per year
So even predicting 14 a year for Skenes would put him on a pace higher than anyone recently
For comparison
Maddux 15.4
Big unit 13.8
Clemens 14.8
Glavine 13.9
Pedro 12.2
Sabathia 13.2
Cole's a pretty good road map for Skenes. 5 years with the Pirates (59 wins), and traded rather than let him walk after his 6th.
In Cole's 5 injury free seasons (30+ starts) post Pirates with the Astros and Yankees he's averaged 15.8 wins a season. It's just a matter of staying injury free while playing for a team that puts up runs. The latter will be a given.
It's still bonkers to me that a players individual greatness is so strapped to the team that he is with (and in many cases is drafted by, outside of his control)
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I think the majority of fans have moved on from that mindset. Don't most believe Skenes is one of if not the best pitcher in baseball?
Farmer1906 said:
I think the majority of fans have moved on from that mindset. Don't most believe Skenes is one of if not the best pitcher in baseball?
I agree with AgRyan here, but I think this is more unique to pitchers.
Skenes could have the best 15 year run of dominance in the history of baseball, but if he finishes his career with 178 wins, no one is comparing him to Maddux, Seaver, etc. when they have the argument about "best pitcher of all time." He could still get into the hall of fame, but he wouldn't be a mount rushmore of pitchers inductee simply because of a low win total.
On the other hand, if Trout had stayed healthy, and put up 600 homers and 3000 hits no one would have cared that his Angels teams stunk his whole career.
Basically the hitting magic numbers are individual statistics while the pitching magic number is a team stat.
The Contemporary Baseball Era player ballot features eight candidates for consideration in the Hall of Fame Class of 2026.
— National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum ⚾ (@baseballhall) November 3, 2025
Results will be announced at 7:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 7: https://t.co/V5Xyf85u9i pic.twitter.com/jdkUy2sOWs
Anyone have any strong opinions here?
I'll get roasted by some folks here but I could easily go yes on Mattingly, Murphy and Kent on that list.
Mattingly without injuries would already be in without a doubt so the only question is how much you punish him for a lack of longevity. He's got an MVP award and a lifetime .300 batter.
Kent is probably the greatest power hitting 2nd baseman of all time. If he's not in, then I'm not sure when the next 2nd baseman to make it will be.
I'm too young to have watched Murphy play before his late career decline, but 2 MVP awards is big for me. Also his career was derailed by injuries as well and it's easy to imagine him already being in if he had 450 homers instead of 398.
Guys like Delgado and Sheffield are hard to read because they put up huge numbers during the roid years but not so good as to make them locks. If I knew they were clean I could probably get to yes on both of them as well.
Elephant in the room is obviously Bonds and Clemens but until they come clean I'm a solid no on them. I'd be a yes on McGwire because at least he's admitted what he was doing.
Mattingly without injuries would already be in without a doubt so the only question is how much you punish him for a lack of longevity. He's got an MVP award and a lifetime .300 batter.
Kent is probably the greatest power hitting 2nd baseman of all time. If he's not in, then I'm not sure when the next 2nd baseman to make it will be.
I'm too young to have watched Murphy play before his late career decline, but 2 MVP awards is big for me. Also his career was derailed by injuries as well and it's easy to imagine him already being in if he had 450 homers instead of 398.
Guys like Delgado and Sheffield are hard to read because they put up huge numbers during the roid years but not so good as to make them locks. If I knew they were clean I could probably get to yes on both of them as well.
Elephant in the room is obviously Bonds and Clemens but until they come clean I'm a solid no on them. I'd be a yes on McGwire because at least he's admitted what he was doing.
Bonds Clemens Murphy and Sheffield a yes from me. Will have to think about the other half.
Anyone else think it's odd they chose Sheff in a Tigers uniform for that graphic?
“Things weren’t gentle and politically correct in those days. We weren’t candy asses. Okay?”
-Frank Borman
“Who are you to doubt El Dandy? ‘Cause this guy’s a serious professional.”
-Bret Hart
-Frank Borman
“Who are you to doubt El Dandy? ‘Cause this guy’s a serious professional.”
-Bret Hart
If I am forced to overlook steroids, I'd put all of them in except Fernando. But I don't think any of the juicers (Bonds, Clemens, Sheffield) should go in until after they are dead and buried. Delgado has never, to my knowledge, had any accusations of steroid use which makes his numbers more impressive in my mind.
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Also, who decides which players make this list?
Like, why is Luis Tiant not being re-examined?
Like, why is Luis Tiant not being re-examined?
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AgRyan04 said:
Also, who decides which players make this list?
Like, why is Luis Tiant not being re-examined?
Tiant would likely be on an "old timers" list due to age. I'm not saying he's a HOFer but he's not really a recent contemporary player with this group.
Leave steroids, HGH, BALCO, walking human biochemistry experiment aside, from this group its Bonds, Clemens, Murphy, Kent.
Bonds, Clemens, Sheffield are dead men walking. Veterans committees have made it clear they want no part of that vote. At least past veterans committees have.
Murphy and Kent deserved induction the first time and should not have needed this fix.
Bonds, Clemens, Sheffield are dead men walking. Veterans committees have made it clear they want no part of that vote. At least past veterans committees have.
Murphy and Kent deserved induction the first time and should not have needed this fix.
Thanks, I didn't catch that verbiage
I guess I can also be surprised that Manny, Sosa, McGwire, A-Rod, Palmeiro are missing as well. If Bonds, Clemens, or Sheffield get in it should open it up to that group as well.
I guess I can also be surprised that Manny, Sosa, McGwire, A-Rod, Palmeiro are missing as well. If Bonds, Clemens, or Sheffield get in it should open it up to that group as well.
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AgRyan04 said:
Thanks, I didn't catch that verbiage
I guess I can also be surprised that Manny, Sosa, McGwire, A-Rod, Palmeiro are missing as well. If Bonds, Clemens, or Sheffield get in it should open it up to that group as well.
ManRam tested positive. Twice. And then quit baseball rather than serve a suspension the second time.
Arod tested positive.
Palmeiro tested positive a week after wagging his finger at everyone in Congress swearing he never did steroids.
Sosa and McGwire? Well we all know they were doing Andro.
All the guys tied up in the juicing controversy just need to come clean and show me they can put their egos to the side.
The hall is full of guys that popped greenies so I don't really care so much about the fact that an athlete would take something to give them an edge, but I do care about the hall not being accessible to guys that refuse to be genuine with the fans. Bonds just has to look at a camera and admit that he's human and messed up and I'd vote for him the next day.
If the hall wants to make a separate section for these guys I'm ok with that also. But right now we basically have a hall of fame that doesn't include 3 of the top 15 players of all time (Arod, Bonds and Clemens) who were HoF locks even without taking anything.
The hall is full of guys that popped greenies so I don't really care so much about the fact that an athlete would take something to give them an edge, but I do care about the hall not being accessible to guys that refuse to be genuine with the fans. Bonds just has to look at a camera and admit that he's human and messed up and I'd vote for him the next day.
If the hall wants to make a separate section for these guys I'm ok with that also. But right now we basically have a hall of fame that doesn't include 3 of the top 15 players of all time (Arod, Bonds and Clemens) who were HoF locks even without taking anything.
They all had their chance to admit it and not only refused, they all said they did nothing at al. Or at least everyone but Bonds. Big head Barry just won't say.
They will go to their graves refusing to admit this.
They have had their chances to admit it.
At least Pettite had the guts to say what he did even without a positive test. And to say HGH worked and was an advantage.
They will go to their graves refusing to admit this.
They have had their chances to admit it.
At least Pettite had the guts to say what he did even without a positive test. And to say HGH worked and was an advantage.
Mathguy64 said:AgRyan04 said:
Thanks, I didn't catch that verbiage
I guess I can also be surprised that Manny, Sosa, McGwire, A-Rod, Palmeiro are missing as well. If Bonds, Clemens, or Sheffield get in it should open it up to that group as well.
ManRam tested positive. Twice. And then quit baseball rather than serve a suspension the second time.
Arod tested positive.
Palmeiro tested positive a week after wagging his finger at everyone in Congress swearing he never did steroids.
Sosa and McGwire? Well we all know they were doing Andro.
I'm not sure Im following. We know that Bonds, Sheffield, and Clemens all did steroids....just like we know A-Rod, Manny, and Palmeiro did. What is the differentiation?
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AgRyan04 said:Mathguy64 said:AgRyan04 said:
Thanks, I didn't catch that verbiage
I guess I can also be surprised that Manny, Sosa, McGwire, A-Rod, Palmeiro are missing as well. If Bonds, Clemens, or Sheffield get in it should open it up to that group as well.
ManRam tested positive. Twice. And then quit baseball rather than serve a suspension the second time.
Arod tested positive.
Palmeiro tested positive a week after wagging his finger at everyone in Congress swearing he never did steroids.
Sosa and McGwire? Well we all know they were doing Andro.
I'm not sure Im following. We know that Bonds, Sheffield, and Clemens all did steroids....just like we know A-Rod, Manny, and Palmeiro did. What is the differentiation?
Some got busted with a positive test and were publicly outed. Some never were and never admitted it. And we know they did.
No one actually testing positive will ever get in. The ones who never tested positive and never wanted to admitted might. Maybe. Possibly. If some strange committee decided that was ok.
Way past time to turn the page on steroids. Get these guys in. Steroids don't hit 70 home runs for you or win 300 games.
No one clean has ever sniffed 70....so yeah, steroids do
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If they're going to let the juicers in, I guess I just don't see how they could let some in but not all. In my mind, the fact some got popped in a test is semantics.....the cream and clear were literally created to stay ahead of the testing capabilities.
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AgRyan04 said:
No one clean has ever sniffed 70....so yeah, steroids do
How so? Which home runs of McGwire's 70 only went over the fence because of steroids? He hit 49 as a skinny rookie in 1987. Developing his swing and strength got him to 70.
Are you serious?
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South Platte said:AgRyan04 said:
No one clean has ever sniffed 70....so yeah, steroids do
How so? Which home runs of McGwire's 70 only went over the fence because of steroids? He hit 49 as a skinny rookie in 1987. Developing his swing and strength got him to 70.
Taking steroids makes it easier to put on muscle and more specifically speeds up your recovery time from strenuous activity such as weight lifting or swinging a baseball bat a bunch of times. McGwire was able to put on significant muscle mass and never miss time or even feel specifically sore from the workouts because of steroid use.
The real damning think for McGwire was how healthy he suddenly was in 97-99. He played 156, 155, and 153 games those three years. Prior to that he had not cracked 150 games played since 1991 when he was 27.
Recovery time is huge but the additional bat speed generated is the other part of the equation.
How many more balls was he able to get the head of the bat to with the increased bat speed that he wouldn't have been able to otherwise? And how many pitches was he able to recognize later in its path towards home and still be able to react to with the increased bat speed that he wouldn't have been able to otherwise?
The real question posed should be, "How many of his 70 HRs wouldnt have gone over the fence without steroids?"
How many more balls was he able to get the head of the bat to with the increased bat speed that he wouldn't have been able to otherwise? And how many pitches was he able to recognize later in its path towards home and still be able to react to with the increased bat speed that he wouldn't have been able to otherwise?
The real question posed should be, "How many of his 70 HRs wouldnt have gone over the fence without steroids?"
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Another question is how many of those 70 homeruns were hit off pitchers using steroids?
AgRyan04 said:
Recovery time is huge but the additional bat speed generated is the other part of the equation.
How many more balls was he able to get the head of the bat to with the increased bat speed that he wouldn't have been able to otherwise? And how many pitches was he able to recognize later in its path towards home and still be able to react to with the increased bat speed that he wouldn't have been able to otherwise?
The real question posed should be, "How many of his 70 HRs wouldnt have gone over the fence without steroids?"
We are both asking questions that cannot be answered. Remember, every starter and reliever back in 1998 wasn't throwing 100 mph like everybody does now.
Go watch the video of his 70 home runs. Many of them are on off-speed pitches in the middle of the plate.
Your last question is valid even though it assumes guilty until proven innocent. Steroids were outlawed, he used them and violated rules. Period. I guess the onus is on him to prove.
But again, as a skinny rookie he had 27 through the first 3 months and finished with 49. He couldn't sustain the pace throughout the full season but had months where he was above an average that would have gotten him to 70. Jumping from 49 to 70 isn't inconceivable once he was consistent each month.
McGwire deserves credit for having one of the all-time perfect home run swings that he could duplicate over and over. And he spent 9 years as an MLB coach. He could flat out hit.
CharleyKerfeld said:South Platte said:AgRyan04 said:
No one clean has ever sniffed 70....so yeah, steroids do
How so? Which home runs of McGwire's 70 only went over the fence because of steroids? He hit 49 as a skinny rookie in 1987. Developing his swing and strength got him to 70.
Taking steroids makes it easier to put on muscle and more specifically speeds up your recovery time from strenuous activity such as weight lifting or swinging a baseball bat a bunch of times. McGwire was able to put on significant muscle mass and never miss time or even feel specifically sore from the workouts because of steroid use.
The real damning think for McGwire was how healthy he suddenly was in 97-99. He played 156, 155, and 153 games those three years. Prior to that he had not cracked 150 games played since 1991 when he was 27.
I don't want to be critical of you specifically, but I hate when people automatically assume that putting on muscle mass required steroid usage.
Lebron James
Kobe Bryant
JJ Watt
Aaron Judge
Ohtani
Cal Raleigh
There is an endless list of guys that starting playing pro sports with a thinner physique and then turned into a specimen. Which of these guys used steroids?
South Platte said:CharleyKerfeld said:South Platte said:AgRyan04 said:
No one clean has ever sniffed 70....so yeah, steroids do
How so? Which home runs of McGwire's 70 only went over the fence because of steroids? He hit 49 as a skinny rookie in 1987. Developing his swing and strength got him to 70.
Taking steroids makes it easier to put on muscle and more specifically speeds up your recovery time from strenuous activity such as weight lifting or swinging a baseball bat a bunch of times. McGwire was able to put on significant muscle mass and never miss time or even feel specifically sore from the workouts because of steroid use.
The real damning think for McGwire was how healthy he suddenly was in 97-99. He played 156, 155, and 153 games those three years. Prior to that he had not cracked 150 games played since 1991 when he was 27.
I don't want to be critical of you specifically, but I hate when people automatically assume that putting on muscle mass required steroid usage.
Lebron James
Kobe Bryant
JJ Watt
Aaron Judge
Ohtani
Cal Raleigh
There is an endless list of guys that starting playing pro sports with a thinner physique and then turned into a specimen. Which of these guys used steroids?
I'd say Raleigh and Judge.
Oakland. SF.
McGwire
Bonds
Canseco
The Giambo Bros
How quickly we forget the epicenter of steroids, Andro (steroid precursor), all the designer things that ultimately turned Bonds into a human biochemistry experiment. That epicenter then cloned itself in Texas and NY with Canseco, Arod and the Giambi's being the vectors. I'll wager 75% or more of players at the time were doing something and hitters got more bang for their buck. Pitchers got stamina and rebound. Hitters gained speed and power.
If you don't think this benefited hitters more than pitchers you are delusional.
It's back now. Just look at Tatis Jr and Profar in SD. Both busted. That's a hot spot. Raleigh. If you don't think Raleigh is hot, doubling his HR while catching all those games and not taking a break, I don't know what to tell you. Hell, Polanco in Seattle had a big rebound year and he's already on an 80 game suspension. A lot of anecdotal stuff points at Seattle. Stanton in Miami back before he came to NYY and Miami was a spot known back in the day as a BALCO subsidiary. Everyone in NYY hitting HRs like they are all the second coming of Mantle and Maris. Journeymen like Chisholm doing it in NY.
It's too much money. It's too little risk. They only catch the complete idiots using older stuff. And MLB doesn't have any incentive to catch guys. Thats the last thing MLB wants to do. This isn't analytics and guys maximizing launch angles. It's not double dipped torpedo maple bats.
McGwire
Bonds
Canseco
The Giambo Bros
How quickly we forget the epicenter of steroids, Andro (steroid precursor), all the designer things that ultimately turned Bonds into a human biochemistry experiment. That epicenter then cloned itself in Texas and NY with Canseco, Arod and the Giambi's being the vectors. I'll wager 75% or more of players at the time were doing something and hitters got more bang for their buck. Pitchers got stamina and rebound. Hitters gained speed and power.
If you don't think this benefited hitters more than pitchers you are delusional.
It's back now. Just look at Tatis Jr and Profar in SD. Both busted. That's a hot spot. Raleigh. If you don't think Raleigh is hot, doubling his HR while catching all those games and not taking a break, I don't know what to tell you. Hell, Polanco in Seattle had a big rebound year and he's already on an 80 game suspension. A lot of anecdotal stuff points at Seattle. Stanton in Miami back before he came to NYY and Miami was a spot known back in the day as a BALCO subsidiary. Everyone in NYY hitting HRs like they are all the second coming of Mantle and Maris. Journeymen like Chisholm doing it in NY.
It's too much money. It's too little risk. They only catch the complete idiots using older stuff. And MLB doesn't have any incentive to catch guys. Thats the last thing MLB wants to do. This isn't analytics and guys maximizing launch angles. It's not double dipped torpedo maple bats.
Top row - I would entertain arguments for Beltran but I lean no
2nd row - Andruw Jones is a HOFer
3rd row - nada
4th row - Manny and A-Rod would be in if they weren't juicers.....I would hear the argument on K-Rod but I lean no
5th row - I'd put Vizquel in....Utley is just out
Didn't Vizquel have some weird pervy rumors come out against him?
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