agproducer said:

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I think higher.

Fangraphs -- imo -- is vastly underrating the amount of injuries we had last year and applying it to this year.

I think it will be a two-way race with Seattle for the division. Has Seattle truly gotten better? They resigned Naylor. They lost Suarez and Polanco. They are at this point according to the depth chart -- starting Cole Young at 2B and Ben Williamson at 3B. Both haven't seen much action at the MLB level.

Their pitching is relatively the same.

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what they do have over us is trade assets with respect to prospects, thus their ability to get Donovan. Seems like it's Boston or bust when it comes to preseason trades, so we'll see if anything materializes.

The last team I wanted to see where Donovan landed was Seattle. If it happens thats a heck of an offense they will have. I just hope our pitching is good enough to overtake the division, along with minimal injuries.

Seattle trading for Donovan would suck.

Marvin said:

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Seattle trading for Donovan would suck.

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Would? It happened.

Yes -- they are a year older -- BUT --

Do we expect Yordan to miss another 100 games?
Pena -- 30+?
Meyers -- 50+?
Paredes -- 55?
And a plethora of pitchers going out with TJ?

This team -- as constructed -- should be in the thick of it at the ASB. Then, you re-evaluate your needs and make a push.

We had an historic number of injuries last year. Historic -- and we were still in it. That says a lot about the team's moxie.

I don't think this is a 100 win team, but I could see high-end 93 or 94 -- *if* pitching holds up and we remain relatively healthy.

Also -- I don't buy Seattle at all. I think they rode their pitching last year, got an epic year from Dumper. I don't think Cal hits 60 again this year. I believe it was a complete anomaly.

W said:

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by the way...Yordan has only surpassed 140 games played twice in his career

2021 & 2024

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I would be happy with 120 -- compared to the 60ish we got from him last year where he wasn't healthy.

Farmer1906 said:

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Well ****

TRADE NEWS: The St. Louis Cardinals are close to finalizing a trade to send All-Star infielder Brendan Donovan to the Seattle Mariners, multiple sources tell The Athletic. A third team may be involved.

What we know: https://t.co/TC1K4NysOo

— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) February 2, 2026

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Looks like both the Sox and Astros are being pushed to a trade of necessity.

agproducer said:

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Yes -- they are a year older -- BUT --

Do we expect Yordan to miss another 100 games?
Pena -- 30+?
Meyers -- 50+?
Paredes -- 55?
And a plethora of pitchers going out with TJ?

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Consider me Missouri when it comes to this Astros team. Show me. I will be super happy if I am wrong, but for now, I just don't feel like this is a better team than last year. Our best month last season was when we were playing a bunch of AAAA guys, not when we had all the guys who will be the starters this season.

Also: Pitching prospect Jurrangelo Cijntje would head to STL. At top of Cardinals’ list in desired return for Donovan. First with Cijntje: @Joelsherman1

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 2, 2026

agproducer said:

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This team -- as constructed -- should be in the thick of it at the ASB. Then, you re-evaluate your needs and make a push.

We had an historic number of injuries last year. Historic -- and we were still in it. That says a lot about the team's moxie.

I don't think this is a 100 win team, but I could see high-end 93 or 94 -- *if* pitching holds up and we remain relatively healthy.

Also -- I don't buy Seattle at all. I think they rode their pitching last year, got an epic year from Dumper. I don't think Cal hits 60 again this year. I believe it was a complete anomaly.

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Seattle will probably be better even if Cal's numbers decline. With a full year of Naylor and the addition of Donovan their offense is pretty stout.

W said:

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here's Seattle advantage over the Astros:

2025 games played leaders for the Mariners:

160 - JRod
160 - Arozarena
159 - Raleigh
157 - Crawford

Seattle has a different philosophy about resting players

(or a different clubhouse mentality regarding 162)

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It would seem their philosophy would be not having their best players get injured. Pretty novel philosophy.



If you care to interact, Jose Altuve played in 153 and 155 games in 2024 and 2025 respectively.

BCEDAg said:

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agproducer said:

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This team -- as constructed -- should be in the thick of it at the ASB. Then, you re-evaluate your needs and make a push.

We had an historic number of injuries last year. Historic -- and we were still in it. That says a lot about the team's moxie.

I don't think this is a 100 win team, but I could see high-end 93 or 94 -- *if* pitching holds up and we remain relatively healthy.

Also -- I don't buy Seattle at all. I think they rode their pitching last year, got an epic year from Dumper. I don't think Cal hits 60 again this year. I believe it was a complete anomaly.

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Seattle will probably be better even if Cal's numbers decline. With a full year of Naylor and the addition of Donovan their offense is pretty stout.

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But they did lose a career year from Polanco.

Three Way Trade from what we know so far:
Sea gets: INF Brendan Donovan;
StL gets: P Jurrangelo Cjntjie OF Tai Peete; OF Colton Ledbetter & Comp B Draft pick
TB gets: 3B Ben Williamson

— Jim Bowden⚾️ (@JimBowdenGM) February 2, 2026

I mean.... whatever it takes

Seattle seems like they've given up a ton of prospects recently, are they at risk of depleting their farm system?

They are probably closer to average in farm system rankings now so I'd say yes they are measurably weaker but still significantly ahead of us.

They have 6 top 100 prospects. Seven prior to the trade.

MaxPower said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Well ****

TRADE NEWS: The St. Louis Cardinals are close to finalizing a trade to send All-Star infielder Brendan Donovan to the Seattle Mariners, multiple sources tell The Athletic. A third team may be involved.

What we know: https://t.co/TC1K4NysOo

— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) February 2, 2026

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Looks like both the Sox and Astros are being pushed to a trade of necessity.

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The two teams are communicating nearly every day but nothing seems close. That can change fast though. Boston values both Abreu and Duran a lot and the price tag is way higher than the Astros are willing to pay.

I think the odds are 50/50 if you were to ask me today if Paredes will be on the opening day roster. Both sides are motivated to get something done.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Bingo.

There's a narrative that the Astros just "aren't doing anything". That's not true. They just don't have the assets that it takes to get deals like this done.

Prospects like Ullola, Matthews, etc all have very high ceilings and can turn out to be good players but their floors are significantly lower than most of the prospects you see moved or listed on top 100 lists. They have elite tools but the path to success in the big leagues is quite narrow. A lot has to go right and click.

Sure, that can be said about any prospect but it's especially true for most of the guys in the Astros system.

The loss of draft picks due to the sign stealing scandal was a significant penalty.

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I think it's also the fact the Astros lost the top 2 draft picks in the covid draft where they only had 5 rounds. That means they lost 40% of the draft in 2020. It was a double-whammy. The Astros also are usually picking later in the draft, and when they do pick, they haven't done the greatest job of drafting since then.

Feels like we are just hanging on by a thread with this team. If this year doesn't go well, time to start over. Think we should have gone down that path 2 years ago, but that's just me.

So, if no more changes to the roster, what are we looking at on opening day?

1. Pena SS
2. Paredes DH
3. Yordan LF
4. Correa 3B
5. Walker 1B
6. Altuve 2B
7. Diaz C
8. Cam RF
9. Meyers CF

One lefty bat, again.....

Wabs said:

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So, if no more changes to the roster, what are we looking at on opening day?

1. Pena SS
2. Paredes DH
3. Yordan LF
4. Correa 3B
5. Walker 1B
6. Altuve 2B
7. Diaz C
8. Cam RF
9. Meyers CF

One lefty bat, again.....

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I think…if no more roster changes…Cole and Sanchez will platoon with Meyers and Cam for R/L matchups.

I can't imagine Joe outwardly saying they don't want Yordan to play much LF this year only to start him in LF on Opening Day.

Yet here we are starting Yordan in LF.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Bingo.

There's a narrative that the Astros just "aren't doing anything". That's not true. They just don't have the assets that it takes to get deals like this done.

Prospects like Ullola, Matthews, etc all have very high ceilings and can turn out to be good players but their floors are significantly lower than most of the prospects you see moved or listed on top 100 lists. They have elite tools but the path to success in the big leagues is quite narrow. A lot has to go right and click.

Sure, that can be said about any prospect but it's especially true for most of the guys in the Astros system.

The loss of draft picks due to the sign stealing scandal was a significant penalty.

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That and the fact that we sign players with QO, we got above the luxury tax, and we make trades to bring in MLB talent regularly. Crane has run this team like he wants to win at the major league level. We've been able to sustain it with player development, extensions, spending in free agency, and adding in trades.

Compare us to everyone over the last decade. There have been 3 teams that have won at an extremely consistent rate. Us, the Dodgers, and the Yankees. The Yankees have largely failed in October and outspent us by a large margin. The Dodgers are a different animal with their near-unlimited resources. The Red Sox, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Rays, Guardians, Mets, etc., have all had lulls, rebuilds, or never came close to reaching our peaks.

All that to say, we shouldn't have the farm system to add great players with years of control. That is why trading from the major league level makes some sense if it 1. helps with roster construction and 2. extends the window.