***** Official Houston Astros 2026 Season Thread *****

630,173 Views | 10046 Replies | Last: 3 min ago by CharleyKerfeld
Booma94
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CFTXAG10 said:

Texaggie7nine said:

Already having to beg


I keep seeing this pop up now on IG and Facebook. Yikes!

I was certain this had to be parody or a hack. No way this is real, is there?
CharleyKerfeld
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Texaggie7nine said:

Already having to beg


I don't want to catch a ban so I won't do it, but it would be incredibly easy to change the catch phrase to WHAT THE **** on that ad.
Hornbeck
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Only if those two are hanging over the rail looking like they don't give a ****
linkdude
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here's a not-paywalled article on the modern draft process, seems relevant to our interests
Farmer1906
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n_touch
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Texaggie7nine said:

Already having to beg


Funny how they use one player that screws up running on a regular basis and another with knees as firm as a giraffe. Shows they will chase you as hard as they are chasing the teams ahead of them in the standings.
MaxPower
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Farmer1906 said:


Having Paul Skenes helps. Skenes has thrown the same number of innings as Burrows. What are the numbers if they had Burrows and we had Skenes?
Farmer1906
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MaxPower said:

Farmer1906 said:


Having Paul Skenes helps. Skenes has thrown the same number of innings as Burrows. What are the numbers if they had Burrows and we had Skenes?


They had Burrows and he was fine. Whatever the Astros tried with him clearly isn't working.

It's not giant leaps but PITs ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP have improved from 2025 to 2026. While the Astros have gone the other way across the board.
MaxPower
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I get it but their team ERA is basically the same as last year with the minimal gain being explained by simply ejecting Heaney, who was awful. I'm not going to say we don't have a potential issue with our pitching approach, I just don't know how you compare two teams with completely different personnel. Burrows xERA is actually better this year than last year
Farmer1906
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MaxPower said:

I get it but their team ERA is basically the same as last year with the minimal gain being explained by simply ejecting Heaney, who was awful. I'm not going to say we don't have a potential issue with our pitching approach, I just don't know how you compare two teams with completely different personnel. Burrows xERA is actually better this year than last year

Burrows xERA is better overall. The results have obviously been ***** Burrows figured out something in the second half and was the best pitcher of his career. We decided to drop his arm angle way down and throw a bunch of sinkers. He no longer can get whiffs & Ks or induce groundballs.
SpaceCityAg05
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It is interesting to note that the article speaks to exactly what I have been speaking against. A preference for tools over resume that suggests performance. For hitters, that means preferring toolsy guys that strike out a billion times over guys with a plus hit tool.

It notes that teams like TB have stayed relevant by defying this the past few years and taking the performers. This might net fewer superstars, but a bunch of guys that are useful for a major league team. Now it says even the Rays are getting in on the toolsy bias. It will be interesting to see over the next few years how this plays out for them.

It feels like everyone is star chasing, but a great MLB team only needs a few of those guys. Having depth of good players is sometimes more important than how many All-Stars you have. Players like Michael Brantley don't make many All-Star games but are key pieces for championship teams.

It almost feels like people have been seduced to a NBA model of star chasing. All of the front offices think they are smarter than everyone else and will "unlock" the next star. The problem is that only a few teams are right in this assumption. The rest are guys who are not as smart as they think they are.

This feels like the next-gen version of scouts and eye-tests overriding intelligence and data in a now fully-saturated anlaytics world.
Hornbeck
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Anybody else following how gaga over Dubon that Atlanta is going right now?
TexAg2001
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I always really liked Dubon. He isn't a superstar player, but I felt like he was the glue holding things at least somewhat together in recent years. He seemed universally liked by all the players and could fill any gap the team needed. I saw him at Spring Training a couple times, and he went out of his way to spend time with the fans. He spent about 20 minutes just chatting with me and my family the first time we saw him.
Farmer1906
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Hornbeck said:

Anybody else following how gaga over Dubon that Atlanta is going right now?


The same thing happened on this thread when Altuve was hurt in like 22 or 23. Some even called him the team MVP.
MaxPower
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There's really no perfect answer. Even SEC baseball is like low A, maybe high A competition. Putting up numbers is a very relevant data point but it doesn't always correlate to big league ball.

Will guys who make poor swing decisions get as many meat balls to wack on as they move their way up or can better pitchers expose them? Can guys who are used to 90-92 handle 95+ consistently? Can a guy with great bat to ball skills hitting a bunch of wall scrapers generate enough power?

My point is even the top hitters in college have question marks because as complete they may appear, there's a lot of projection because there's a long way to go. Sorrell and Robbins make terrible swing decisions and with high whiff rates. Curiel cannot pull the ball in the air. Tyler Bell whiffs on over 50% of the sliders he swings at. Tague Davis is leading the universe in HR's with a bottom 4% whiff and chase rate. Yet if you look at all those guys OBP, slugging, etc you'd think they were can't miss studs.
SpaceCityAg05
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I agree - there is projection in all cases.
I am not suggesting you go by college stats - as you noted, they are not created equal.

A perfect example is Sorrell vs. Grahovic. Both are all SEC performers. Both have high upside. Sorrell has much higher risk, while Grahovic's damage is all coming against quality SEC pitching.

To me, that makes a guy like GG a screaming take while some some scouts fall in love with the SS/CF equivalent of Binderup - loud power numbers despite the fact that he can't make consistent contact against higher level pitching.
MaxPower
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I like GG. The question with him is if there's any chance he can play 3B but I definitely have fewer questions about his bat. Teams will only value a right-handed 1B so much. It may seem silly but the reality is you only have so much room for 1B / DH types in your system.
Farmer1906
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Yall make some good points. I think that is why Hacopian is so highly ranked this draft. He may not be top 5 on the team in OPS, but he doesn't strike out much, draws some walks, and has okay pop from the middle INF spot.
ruxin98
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Farmer1906 said:

Yall make some good points. I think that is why Hacopian is so highly ranked this draft. He may not be top 5 on the team in OPS, but he doesn't strike out much, draws some walks, and has okay pop from the middle INF spot.

Yeah, from the mocks and rankings I've seen Hacopian is the only guy projected to go in the first round. GG is somewhere in the 40-50 range as a prospect and Sorrell is 60-70. Interestingly Sdao is still thought of as a Top 100 prospect in this draft. I guess the stuff wins out.
SpaceCityAg05
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I agree if he is 1B/DH only. But it seems that GG can clearly play 3B AND might even have potential to play corner OF.

Hacopian is interesting. I understand why he is so high because of the high contact/low K rate. I simply question his defensive fit at the ML level. He may play a passable 2B, but it puts more pressure on his bat to have to be plus at the ML level.
ruxin98
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SpaceCityAg05 said:

I agree if he is 1B/DH only. But it seems that GG can clearly play 3B AND might even have potential to play corner OF.

Hacopian is interesting. I understand why he is so high because of the high contact/low K rate. I simply question his defensive fit at the ML level. He may play a passable 2B, but it puts more pressure on his bat to have to be plus at the ML level.

GG being displaced off of 3B by a true freshman in college will not help his case for major league scouts that he's a potential 3B in MLB.
CharleyKerfeld
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MaxPower said:

Farmer1906 said:



Having Paul Skenes helps. Skenes has thrown the same number of innings as Burrows. What are the numbers if they had Burrows and we had Skenes?


Current Pirates ERA 3.71

Current Astros ERA: 5.59


Pirates with Burrows = 4.18 ERA

Astros with Skenes: = 5.11 ERA

They would drop to 18th in team ERA. We would still be dead-ass last by a tenth of a run.



Another way of framing it:

Pirates ERA without Skenes: 3.96

Astros ERA without Burrows: 5.57 - barely any drop at all.

Pirates without Skenes are 12th in ERA, so clearly it's not just him. The league average ERA right now is 4.10.

Farmer1906
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ruxin98 said:

SpaceCityAg05 said:

I agree if he is 1B/DH only. But it seems that GG can clearly play 3B AND might even have potential to play corner OF.

Hacopian is interesting. I understand why he is so high because of the high contact/low K rate. I simply question his defensive fit at the ML level. He may play a passable 2B, but it puts more pressure on his bat to have to be plus at the ML level.

GG being displaced off of 3B by a true freshman in college will not help his case for major league scouts that he's a potential 3B in MLB.


I think he did that for the good of the team. If he says he's not moving off 3B, guess what? He's the starting 3B all year.
ruxin98
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Farmer1906 said:

ruxin98 said:

SpaceCityAg05 said:

I agree if he is 1B/DH only. But it seems that GG can clearly play 3B AND might even have potential to play corner OF.

Hacopian is interesting. I understand why he is so high because of the high contact/low K rate. I simply question his defensive fit at the ML level. He may play a passable 2B, but it puts more pressure on his bat to have to be plus at the ML level.

GG being displaced off of 3B by a true freshman in college will not help his case for major league scouts that he's a potential 3B in MLB.


I think he did that for the good of the team. If he says he's not moving off 3B, guess what? He's the starting 3B all year.

It's the fact that it was better for the team that he will be dinged.
Farmer1906
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ruxin98 said:

Farmer1906 said:

ruxin98 said:

SpaceCityAg05 said:

I agree if he is 1B/DH only. But it seems that GG can clearly play 3B AND might even have potential to play corner OF.

Hacopian is interesting. I understand why he is so high because of the high contact/low K rate. I simply question his defensive fit at the ML level. He may play a passable 2B, but it puts more pressure on his bat to have to be plus at the ML level.

GG being displaced off of 3B by a true freshman in college will not help his case for major league scouts that he's a potential 3B in MLB.


I think he did that for the good of the team. If he says he's not moving off 3B, guess what? He's the starting 3B all year.

It's the fact that it was better for the team that he will be dinged.


Possibly. It also might help when evaluating his character.
SpaceCityAg05
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It was not because of his poor defense at 3B. It was because we had two legit 3B and no legit 1B.

If he was a liability at 3B, we would be playing Farr (or even Royo) at 3B in Partida's absence instead of Binderup.
MaxPower
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SpaceCityAg05 said:

I agree if he is 1B/DH only. But it seems that GG can clearly play 3B AND might even have potential to play corner OF.

Hacopian is interesting. I understand why he is so high because of the high contact/low K rate. I simply question his defensive fit at the ML level. He may play a passable 2B, but it puts more pressure on his bat to have to be plus at the ML level.
I love my Ags but not too interested in any, at least not where we pick. Really I don't think any college bat will make sense at 17 or 28 unless we are doing some under slot shenanigans. I'd be going pitcher or HS bat at both spots.
W
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so no Pena for the Rangers series

that will run his games missed total to 38
Ag_07
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He still can't finish his rehab assignment due to sore neck.

Comical
Texaggie7nine
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Welp... heading to the ice box for the game tonight.

7nine
Mathguy64
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So broken finger, popped hammy, sore neck.

What's next? Anal fissure?
wessimo
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Also heading to the icebox & feeling irrationally optimistic. Beat that south okie azz!
MaxPower
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I'm very interested in this guy in the 2nd or 3rd round. Might be the best combination of swing decisions, contact rates and exit velocity in the draft.

astros4545
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Has this been shared
Mathguy64
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Leading off tonight with Brice.

Brice with the .196, .620 OPS. And Joe put him first. Joe, do you not like your job? Or are you just flinging poo against a wall like a chimp in a zoo?
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