cgh1999 said:

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jja79 said:

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Is this good or bad for consumers?

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Bad. Banks are merging because they need scale to generate consistent profits.

As banks consolidate and get bigger, we will see them become more conservative. It will drive more business loans and real estates to be private credit options which are better structures for the customers, but more expensive. Private credit is also unregulated and offers potential for fraud as we have seen lately in the zions and western alliance news.

In previous cycles (pre financial crisis of 07-08), we would see 1-2 new community banks start for every merger. This would continue to support the small business/community. It's so difficult to start a bank now and ridiculously expensive that we will continue to see the number of banks shrink rapidly.

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Almost agree entirely, almost.

Any bank issues coming out of the 12th district, particularly a 12th district run by Mary Daly, would be pretty dang obvious to most sensible people. The 12th district figures out how to make common sense problems into systemic bank failures regularly.

Fubo and DNN finally breaking through for me! UNH too! Currently up 2.59% for the day, hope it holds!

flashplayer said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Any reason for vst to be taking a beating besides the CEO selling a couple mil of his stock? Or just a shakeout before earnings next week?

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Where are you seeing that reported? I'm not seeing that he sold a significant amount of held stock anywhere. Just a bunch of option executes in Sept / Oct but nothing that makes me think they are about to start doing poorly. Notice he is the only one and no one else and it's all option executes. Probably doing it for tax purposes or just ordinary execution of options.

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Per SEC filings, the sales are pursuant to a 10b5-1 plan of some sort. The plan was dated 06/12/2025 and was likely designed with quantity/price thresholds. The Director's not really in control of the sale outside of the terms of the plan.

It is odd, imo, that Fidelity keeps filing Form 144s for each daily execution; that's not how I prefer to handle those types of plans for my customers.


edit to add: the use of a 10b5-1 plan typically permits insiders the ability to liquidate stock during internal blackout periods, like during the weeks surrounding earnings releases, when the company doesn't want there to be any perception of impropriety

ASST didn't work out for me today. Out for a small loss on the day, overall profit.

On to the next one.

same.

flashplayer said:

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There's not even 200K layoffs on that list.

From October '22 - January '23 there were 6.5 million

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AI is still in its very early infancy for these companies. This will only grow to replace warm bodies in chairs.

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

flashplayer said:

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There's not even 200K layoffs on that list.

From October '22 - January '23 there were 6.5 million

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I was one of them!

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

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Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

FishrCoAg said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

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Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

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If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

AggieFrog said:

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FishrCoAg said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

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I guess I'm too dumb to understand how AI is going to do the actual hands on work of a plumber or HVAC person, or lots of other trade type jobs. Maybe it can tell them what needs to be done but someone has to put the unit in the building and connect all the wires and pipes.

CLS at $325+

FishrCoAg said:

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AggieFrog said:

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FishrCoAg said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

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I guess I'm too dumb to understand how AI is going to do the actual hands on work of a plumber or HVAC person, or lots of other trade type jobs. Maybe it can tell them what needs to be done but someone has to put the unit in the building and connect all the wires and pipes.

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Agree - it's part of why I'm skeptical. I'm also highly skeptical that we'll see AGI in the foreseeable future.

But if we did and you assumed some sort of exponential growth in AGI/robotics, then that could come much sooner than we think.

Agree. I can see it in the way off, distant future but not anytime soon. It is replacing people that had to be somewhat smart/trained with various forms of data. Programming, data analysts, sales, accounting, medicine, law, etc... These will all be affected.

Nothing gonna be left but some blue-collar jobs and less desirable jobs that require human interaction.

I just had three AC units replaced. Very tight spaces in an unusual setup. No way a computer/robot does that now. The salesperson, on the other hand....

Gaeilge said:

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Recent Layoff Announcements:

1. UPS: 48,000 employees
2. Amazon: Up to 30,000 employees
3. Intel: 24,000 employees
4. Nestle: 16,000 employees
5. Accenture: 11,000 employees
6. Ford: 11,000 employees
7. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees
8. Microsoft: 7,000 employees
9. PwC: 5,600…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 28, 2025

Quote:

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Recent Layoff Announcements:

1. UPS: 48,000 employees
2. Amazon: Up to 30,000 employees
3. Intel: 24,000 employees
4. Nestle: 16,000 employees
5. Accenture: 11,000 employees
6. Ford: 11,000 employees
7. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees
8. Microsoft: 7,000 employees
9. PwC: 5,600 employees
10. Salesforce: 4,000 employees
11. Paramount: 2,000 employees
12. Target: 1,800 employees
13. Kroger: 1,000 employees
14. Applied Materials: 1,444 employees
15. Meta: 600 employees

The labor market is clearly weakening.

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AI Death Knell engaged!

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That would be better shown as a % of those companies. No doubt, it's a lot of people but what % of Amazon is 30K? And they are likely still hiring.

NoahAg said:

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AggieFrog said:

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FishrCoAg said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

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But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

It is roughly 10% of their corporate staff.

We also still have a massive number of boomers retiring soon so I actually think that cushions the impact somewhat. Not entirely, but in a meaningful way.

FishrCoAg said:

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AggieFrog said:

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FishrCoAg said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

I guess I'm too dumb to understand how AI is going to do the actual hands on work of a plumber or HVAC person, or lots of other trade type jobs. Maybe it can tell them what needs to be done but someone has to put the unit in the building and connect all the wires and pipes.

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AI will be integrated in the robots that Musk is building

thus you have the Android muscle to go along with AI knowledge of the tasks.

Proposition Joe said:

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NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

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That makes sense. Will be interesting to watch it unfold. I know firsthand that the trades currently need qualified people. A lot. I don't see a sudden migration of programmers to say, HVAC. I think it would be more gradual. HVAC is hot, dirty, tough work. Not saying that some won't make the move. But many desk jockeys just aren't cut out for hard manual labor.

AI isn't end to end like a human. Doubt it ever will be. It will do the stuff in the middle well.

NoahAg said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

That makes sense. Will be interesting to watch it unfold. I know firsthand that the trades currently need qualified people. A lot. I don't see a sudden migration of programmers to say, HVAC. I think it would be more gradual. HVAC is hot, dirty, tough work. Not saying that some won't make the move. But many desk jockeys just aren't cut out for hard manual labor.

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No doubt it won't be quick -- all of this tends to move a lot slower than people think.

Ragoo said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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NoahAg said:

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AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

there will be new jobs currently unknown to us.

The tractor took jobs away from crop planters and pickers but created a need for lubricants, fuels, and mechanics, etc.

Jobs dont vanish, they become something new.

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Yep. Buggy whip manufacturers started making seat cushions and steering wheels.

Proposition Joe said:

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Ragoo said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

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NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

there will be new jobs currently unknown to us.

The tractor took jobs away from crop planters and pickers but created a need for lubricants, fuels, and mechanics, etc.

Jobs dont vanish, they become something new.

---

The idea that jobs always evolve or X new industry jobs are created for every X is comforting, but it's built on a relatively small sample size.

Right now there are 3.8 million fast food workers. We are not that far away from roughly 80% of them being rendered obsolete. Kiosk or AI order taking, robotic creation. You'll need 1, maybe 2 people around to make sure things don't go haywire.

So what industry would 3 million people enter into tomorrow?

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you assume 100% adoption and 80% utilization.

There are fast food companies like CFA that I would highly doubt they adopt any type of robotic interface that subtracts from the hospitality of the experience. Someplace like Taco Bell, sure.

Ragoo said:

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Proposition Joe said:

---

Ragoo said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

there will be new jobs currently unknown to us.

The tractor took jobs away from crop planters and pickers but created a need for lubricants, fuels, and mechanics, etc.

Jobs dont vanish, they become something new.

---

The idea that jobs always evolve or X new industry jobs are created for every X is comforting, but it's built on a relatively small sample size.

Right now there are 3.8 million fast food workers. We are not that far away from roughly 80% of them being rendered obsolete. Kiosk or AI order taking, robotic creation. You'll need 1, maybe 2 people around to make sure things don't go haywire.

So what industry would 3 million people enter into tomorrow?

---

you assume 100% adoption and 80% utilization.

There are fast food companies like CFA that I would highly doubt they adopt any type of robotic interface that subtracts from the hospitality of the experience. Someplace like Taco Bell, sure.

---

They'll have to to a certain extent or they won't be able to remain cost competitive. Maybe they can give a slightly more humanized experience than Taco Bell at the customer interface, but behind the scenes they will need to automate to keep up with their competitors. CFA is a little more upscale than Taco Bell, so that will help.

can we talk about how eventual UBI could just be a free bonus/beer money for early FIREes?

aggieforester05 said:

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Ragoo said:

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Proposition Joe said:

---

Ragoo said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

AggieFrog said:

---

FishrCoAg said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Wow what if artists end up being the only workers that ai can't replace!?
And the world's oldest profession, of course

---

Plumbers, HVAC, etc. etc.

---

If the AI predictions are accurate (I'm highly skeptical) then even those jobs won't be safe long term. And if we see significant layoffs just in white collar we're likely headed for a severe recession. The top 10% of income earners drive 50% of all spending in the US these days.

---

Yeah, I don't see robo-plumbers or android HVAC technicians being a thing in my lifetime. Or my future grandchildren's lifetime. They will always require a human element.

---

But that doesn't mean they are shielded from impacts of AI in industry as a whole.

If you've got 10,000 computer programmers and 1,000 HVAC installers and 9,000 of the programmer jobs go away, a percentage of those people are going to start training to be HVAC installers -- bringing up the amount of supply of those laborers and in turn putting a ceiling on their pay.

It's like when you look at the McDonalds employees and how they will all be pretty easily replaced by robotics and kiosks... That's a problem for everyone, because that's an enormous number of workers that will now be looking elsewhere for work.

---

there will be new jobs currently unknown to us.

The tractor took jobs away from crop planters and pickers but created a need for lubricants, fuels, and mechanics, etc.

Jobs dont vanish, they become something new.

---

The idea that jobs always evolve or X new industry jobs are created for every X is comforting, but it's built on a relatively small sample size.

Right now there are 3.8 million fast food workers. We are not that far away from roughly 80% of them being rendered obsolete. Kiosk or AI order taking, robotic creation. You'll need 1, maybe 2 people around to make sure things don't go haywire.

So what industry would 3 million people enter into tomorrow?

---

you assume 100% adoption and 80% utilization.

There are fast food companies like CFA that I would highly doubt they adopt any type of robotic interface that subtracts from the hospitality of the experience. Someplace like Taco Bell, sure.

---

They'll have to to a certain extent or they won't be able to remain cost competitive. Maybe they can give a slightly more humanized experience than Taco Bell at the customer interface, but behind the scenes they will need to automate to keep up with their competitors. CFA is a little more upscale than Taco Bell, so that will help.

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be honest, when was the last time you considered price when going to CFA? You went to CFA because you wanted their food, or someone else in your family wanted their food.