PANW beat earnings estimates and immediately tanks...sweet
I'll dig into why when I can, but ffs
I'll dig into why when I can, but ffs
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Last: 23 min ago by Brian Earl Spilner
Welp looking like it was just profit taking and running back up now, I guess
https://archive.fast-edgar.com/20250212/AKZ2L22CZ222O2Z2222V22ZAWCUO7O2I9272/Heineken-Ashi said:$SMCI executives including @charlesliang and wife Sara rushed to convert RSUs into common shares and sold as much as ~60% of the newly acquired shares at $42.65 before the F2Q business update.
— Livy Research (@LivyResearch) February 13, 2025
This isn't a sign of confidence that SMCI will file the o/s 10Ks and 10Qs before Feb… pic.twitter.com/BYKPkZ6Kaj
Have not verified if true.
It looks to me like a sell to cover income taxes because it didn't even scratch the surface of how many shares that they still hold.
ETA: similar small transactions reported by other officers. I suspect exercising of stock options and income taxes.
https://archive.fast-edgar.com/20250212/AFZ2H22CZ22262Z2222322ZAICNPRO2I9272/
https://archive.fast-edgar.com/20250212/AVZ2K22CZ222O2Z2222C22ZASOF9HO2I9272/
https://archive.fast-edgar.com/20250212/A7ZZN22CZ222N2Z2222K22Z9GSGWZO2I9V72/
ETA2: Livy Research looks like they've been shorting SMCI and NVDA if you go back into their past tweets. This smells like a hit piece. News of the sells listed above hit the wires 3 days ago to no avail.
TTD didn't have the greatest day. Is that on anyone's radar?
TTD is best in breed and was overly punished today. Don't expect it to snapback quickly, 4-6 weeks, but it's a good entry point here. Your downside might be $70/shr, but your upside is north of $105-110 by the end of the year, imho. If you're patient, then you have limited downside and very good opportunity for a 50% ROI over the course of 2025.El Chupacabra said:
TTD didn't have the greatest day. Is that on anyone's radar?
If anyone is looking for a buy/hold with minimal downside and exceptional ROI opportunity, then add $SIG to your watchlist. I previously posted that I'll start buying it at $50 and it's getting very close.
This isn't a sexy fast moving pick, but it's a solid company that closes that gap at $75, and could fill the next one at $95 this year. It also has a 2.25% dividend, so think of it as a 1 yr CD with more appreciation potential.
This would be an excellent candidate for self-directed IRAs.
As always, do your own DD and make the best decisions for you and your family.
ETA: The window that folks that sold it at a loss closes in days, so that means that if they took the loss but want to re-enter it, then they will buy it back after 30 days without losing the tax loss benefit.
This isn't a sexy fast moving pick, but it's a solid company that closes that gap at $75, and could fill the next one at $95 this year. It also has a 2.25% dividend, so think of it as a 1 yr CD with more appreciation potential.
This would be an excellent candidate for self-directed IRAs.
As always, do your own DD and make the best decisions for you and your family.
ETA: The window that folks that sold it at a loss closes in days, so that means that if they took the loss but want to re-enter it, then they will buy it back after 30 days without losing the tax loss benefit.
It looks like right around $81 would be the Model T, no? Feel like it could head there before bouncing back. You know 1000x more than I do on this, but just thought that could be a retrace target as well.Heineken-Ashi said:
By the way, I was out for a couple hours and got stopped on UPST.
Pay attention to the captions on the purple extension lines. Those are the support zones. Below $82 and it's likely that it's not going to immediately rebound and go straight to $115. It's up to you when to add back. Below the pre-earnings breakout level and I would just sit tight.
And keep in mind.. you don't HAVE to add back. We're talking about looking for the final move in a topping pattern. Sometimes it's just best to catch the breakout and meat, as we did, and let the rest run at the whims of the late to enter retail traders who are most likely not going to sell out in time and will get trapped with a bag.
I'll add that a March expiry $50 put is about $277 right now and would be a 5.5% ROC if you sold a cash secured put on $SIG. could be another way to go about acquiring shares while lowering cost basis down around $47.
INTC stuff been brewing last few days from the WH etc. as evident from price action. A lot of smoke may bring this one back from the dead.
You think diamonds will come back?
Seems risky given the trend towards lab grown.
I was thinking about this the other day as my insurance rider on my wife's ring went up it's usually 5% for the year. I would estimate the value of the rock has dropped 20% in that time. Such a scam.
Seems risky given the trend towards lab grown.
I was thinking about this the other day as my insurance rider on my wife's ring went up it's usually 5% for the year. I would estimate the value of the rock has dropped 20% in that time. Such a scam.
Majority of young women (couples) will be offended by a lab grown engagement ring.Diggity said:
You think diamonds will come back?
Seems risky given the trend towards lab grown.
I was thinking about this the other day as my insurance rider on my wife's ring went up it's usually 5% for the year. I would estimate the value of the rock has dropped 20% in that time. Such a scam.
Sorry, but that's not true in my experience. I have family in the jewelry industry and the lab grown diamonds are flying off the shelf. Young people especially are more concerned with size and clarity and they simply can't afford real diamonds of the same caliber.ProgN said:Majority of young women (couples) will be offended by a lab grown engagement ring.Diggity said:
You think diamonds will come back?
Seems risky given the trend towards lab grown.
I was thinking about this the other day as my insurance rider on my wife's ring went up it's usually 5% for the year. I would estimate the value of the rock has dropped 20% in that time. Such a scam.
I have no opinion on the $SIG recommendation. Just sharing my experience.
Let's say you're right, but SIG owns Jared, Kay, Zale's, Piercing Pagoda, etc. is the fine jewelry conglomerate. I'd bet they all offer both genuine as well as lab grown diamonds. Either way, their stores are well positioned to profit from whichever choice the customer chooses to go.Double Oaked said:Sorry, but that's not true in my experience. I have family in the jewelry industry and the lab grown diamonds are flying off the shelf. Young people especially are more concerned with size and clarity and they simply can't afford real diamonds of the same caliber.ProgN said:Majority of young women (couples) will be offended by a lab grown engagement ring.Diggity said:
You think diamonds will come back?
Seems risky given the trend towards lab grown.
I was thinking about this the other day as my insurance rider on my wife's ring went up it's usually 5% for the year. I would estimate the value of the rock has dropped 20% in that time. Such a scam.
I have no opinion on the $SIG recommendation. Just sharing my experience.
Look, I'm not anyone's broker anymore and have zero financial incentive to post this rec, buy it, or don't, I don't care either way. $SIG is trading with a trailing PE of 6, with a yield of 2.2% dividend, and they're player in the fine jewelry market. It's a perfect candidate for buy/hold/IRAs entry, with minimal risk.
I don't need praise and IDGAS about criticism if I'm wrong. Everyone in this thread are educated professionals that are taking the initiative to take control of their money and future. When I see posters taking control of their own money and financial future for them and their families, then that's what's important to me. I post my opinions, if some benefit that's great, but my intentions are pure for the betterment of everyone here.
For what it's worth, I've been waiting for sig to go under 51 again
ProgN said:Majority of young women (couples) will be offended by a lab grown engagement ring.Diggity said:
You think diamonds will come back?
Seems risky given the trend towards lab grown.
I was thinking about this the other day as my insurance rider on my wife's ring went up it's usually 5% for the year. I would estimate the value of the rock has dropped 20% in that time. Such a scam.
My wife's $150 wedding band from 17 years ago lost a diamond (if you can call it that). I offered to buy a really nice band that had lab grown diamonds…and looks 100x nicer than her current band. It was like $800. She was offended. She's happier with her crappy old band.
aggies4life said:aggies4life said:
Anyone in etf bito? Thoughts? Seems to have a pretty good div
Anyone? Heck of a dividend
MSTY if you want a dividend.
Trump will fix it.
El Chupacabra said:ProgN said:Majority of young women (couples) will be offended by a lab grown engagement ring.Diggity said:
You think diamonds will come back?
Seems risky given the trend towards lab grown.
I was thinking about this the other day as my insurance rider on my wife's ring went up it's usually 5% for the year. I would estimate the value of the rock has dropped 20% in that time. Such a scam.
My wife's $150 wedding band from 17 years ago lost a diamond (if you can call it that). I offered to buy a really nice band that had lab grown diamonds…and looks 100x nicer than her current band. It was like $800. She was offended. She's happier with her crappy old band.
Women have changed in the last 15 years...
just consider yourself very luckyEl Chupacabra said:ProgN said:Majority of young women (couples) will be offended by a lab grown engagement ring.Diggity said:
You think diamonds will come back?
Seems risky given the trend towards lab grown.
I was thinking about this the other day as my insurance rider on my wife's ring went up it's usually 5% for the year. I would estimate the value of the rock has dropped 20% in that time. Such a scam.
My wife's $150 wedding band from 17 years ago lost a diamond (if you can call it that). I offered to buy a really nice band that had lab grown diamonds…and looks 100x nicer than her current band. It was like $800. She was offended. She's happier with her crappy old band.
ChucoAg said:just consider yourself very luckyEl Chupacabra said:ProgN said:Majority of young women (couples) will be offended by a lab grown engagement ring.Diggity said:
You think diamonds will come back?
Seems risky given the trend towards lab grown.
I was thinking about this the other day as my insurance rider on my wife's ring went up it's usually 5% for the year. I would estimate the value of the rock has dropped 20% in that time. Such a scam.
My wife's $150 wedding band from 17 years ago lost a diamond (if you can call it that). I offered to buy a really nice band that had lab grown diamonds…and looks 100x nicer than her current band. It was like $800. She was offended. She's happier with her crappy old band.
Or she's lying and it's a test.
That he's failing.
I think you are right. For our 20th anniversary I upgraded my wife's diamond. I got her a very nice 5+ carat diamond that appraised for around $80,000. Ten years later got it appraised again and this time it came back at around $48,000.Kaiser von Wilhelm said:El Chupacabra said:ProgN said:Majority of young women (couples) will be offended by a lab grown engagement ring.Diggity said:
You think diamonds will come back?
Seems risky given the trend towards lab grown.
I was thinking about this the other day as my insurance rider on my wife's ring went up it's usually 5% for the year. I would estimate the value of the rock has dropped 20% in that time. Such a scam.
My wife's $150 wedding band from 17 years ago lost a diamond (if you can call it that). I offered to buy a really nice band that had lab grown diamonds…and looks 100x nicer than her current band. It was like $800. She was offended. She's happier with her crappy old band.
Women have changed in the last 15 years...
Jeweler said no one was buying diamonds that big anyone more. Demand had dropped off considerably. Thus the lower value.
Our daughter really has no interest in having it one day. But our DIL is very interested.
This guy is obviously bearish, but he gives a whole timeline summary of SMCI and what might be coming next. It's at least an interesting watch.
What I would ask all of you, is to take off your team hats whether you are bullish or bearish. Try to view stocks like this from an unbiased narrative. In fact, forget the narrative altogether. If you are uncomfortable with any of the stuff going on with SMCI, you should stay away. If you are not willing to lose a substantial amount of your investment, I would stay away. This one can be volatile in BOTH directions. Not for the faint of heart.
I'm currently long after avoiding the company last year. I shared my chart a couple days ago. It has NOTHING to do with fundamentals, narratives, delisting potential, fraud potential, or the potential that all goes away and SMCI is on the up and up. It's a PURE technical chart patterning out what I see. But I think I might even bail on this one, totally understanding that I could potentially miss huge gains. Am I doing it of fear? You might call it that. I don't think I could argue. What I would call it though is "waiting to see if the smoke turns to fire". I see no reason to leave myself exposed, no matter how much I like the setup (and I really like it). I just ask that you do an honest assessment of your own risk profile. If you still want to be long, go knock it out of the park. I hope you kill it. I'm happy to continue to chart it for yall.
The $SMCI Business Update was one big pile of💩 pic.twitter.com/kRLJXJMXQ8
— Nobody Special (@JG_Nuke) February 13, 2025
What I would ask all of you, is to take off your team hats whether you are bullish or bearish. Try to view stocks like this from an unbiased narrative. In fact, forget the narrative altogether. If you are uncomfortable with any of the stuff going on with SMCI, you should stay away. If you are not willing to lose a substantial amount of your investment, I would stay away. This one can be volatile in BOTH directions. Not for the faint of heart.
I'm currently long after avoiding the company last year. I shared my chart a couple days ago. It has NOTHING to do with fundamentals, narratives, delisting potential, fraud potential, or the potential that all goes away and SMCI is on the up and up. It's a PURE technical chart patterning out what I see. But I think I might even bail on this one, totally understanding that I could potentially miss huge gains. Am I doing it of fear? You might call it that. I don't think I could argue. What I would call it though is "waiting to see if the smoke turns to fire". I see no reason to leave myself exposed, no matter how much I like the setup (and I really like it). I just ask that you do an honest assessment of your own risk profile. If you still want to be long, go knock it out of the park. I hope you kill it. I'm happy to continue to chart it for yall.
UPST hit the area it had to hold for one more big push up to happen sooner rather than later. You can see that path in blue. Again, timing is illustrative. Trendlines are linear constructs, and the market is not linear. I use them to illustrate. Orange is the alternate count. That 61.8% in dark blue near the top is how I measure the typical expected target for a 5th wave. It takes the distance covered by all the waves up to the third and measures a 61.8% extension from the bottom of the 4th. So if it has bottomed and is going up, that's the expected target, with anything higher being an extension. It could also turn into an ending diagonal and terminate at a lower upper target, like $105, but that would not be apparent right now when we still don't even know if support will hold yet.
Heini,
If you have a free minute can you chart CROX for El Duderino and I? We want to see the pathway to Crochalla.
If you have a free minute can you chart CROX for El Duderino and I? We want to see the pathway to Crochalla.
Charismatic Megafauna
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How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
5+ carats!? Does she need shoulder surgery now?
Ughhh...Heineken-Ashi said:NVDA. Hands in each others cookie jars. Rumor is that SMCI can't follow through on Blackwell orders due to their accounts being falsely bloated, and they are 25% of all future orders.TTUArmy said:All the good they are doing can't be fully appreciated until they get their accounting issues sorted out. Personally, I still believe there is something to the Hindenburg case. And, I don't think it affects SMCI alone. I think there are some other large company fingerprints in the their books which would devastate the entire AI market.Brian Earl Spilner said:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-computer-says-shipping-111500808.html
ROKU! Wasn't even tuned in to their earnings since I've pretty much given up on them... Nice surprise.
SLV up big premarket, huge volume too. HA, do you think calls would be a good idea?
WeRide
NVDA dumps ARM. Invests in WRD. Big pop in premarket.
NVDA dumps ARM. Invests in WRD. Big pop in premarket.
Big pop indeedTalon2DSO said:
WeRide
NVDA dumps ARM. Invests in WRD. Big pop in premarket.
NVDA dumped Soundhound as well .
Thinking of picking up some more.
Thinking of picking up some more.
Not yet.Happygilmore20 said:
SLV up big premarket, huge volume too. HA, do you think calls would be a good idea?
Low confidence. You can tell its been a while since I looked at it as the chart had my old green and red labels. Looks like a long-term ending diagonal setting up, which would mean whippy lashy and unpredictable while generally trending up. Remind me to dive in more in a couple weeks.M4 Benelli said:
Heini,
If you have a free minute can you chart CROX for El Duderino and I? We want to see the pathway to Crochalla.
My SLV chart is messy, but there's a couple potentials right now. I view a rocket ship as the least likely. My base expectation is a retrace is coming. Next most probable is we finally get the drop to a new low in the $25-$27 range. I started building very small starter positions in June and September calls a month ago. Very small. And I still have March calls. Probably closing out profitable March stuff today. We will see.
Sentiment is through the roof on metals. Which usually means the opposite is about to happen. Then when leverage has been wiped from the failed optimism, it will take off.
Sentiment is through the roof on metals. Which usually means the opposite is about to happen. Then when leverage has been wiped from the failed optimism, it will take off.
WRD took a triple dose of HIMS!Talon2DSO said:
WeRide
NVDA dumps ARM. Invests in WRD. Big pop in premarket.
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